The So What?

52 days before the election we look at the impact of the formation of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, and reflect on possible developments after the elections, which may prove more important than what happens before 29 May 2024.For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

On the eve of the national elections, this episode outlines the broad patterns that can be discerned from poll numbers, and considers possible coalitions if the ANC were to lose their ruling majority. In light of speculation about policy uncertainty and populism, we also look at trends in the 2024 budget.So what? Expectations that we will have “a new national government” are unrealistic. Nationally, the ANC will still be the biggest party by a margin and will invite other parties to join a coalition if necessary. The major question is whether coalition governments may need to be formed on provincial level. Economic policies, meanwhile, are holding steady. The issue is not uncertainty but the pace of implementation. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode unpacks the Integrated Resource Plan 2023, recently published for public comment in order to replace the previous version from 2019. It is a deeply disappointing document, visionless and without urgency.So what? Eskom will not get us out of the our energy crisis. The utility’s energy availability factor keeps falling, sketching a relentless downward trend. Fortunately, regulatory reform since 2021 has opened the way for the private sector to step into the breach. This is happening. An opportunity for re-industrialisation in the sphere of renewable energy still exists. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode, JP reflects on his impressions after a short study visit to China. In just 45 years, they have lifted themselves out of poverty. It is an astonishing achievement. So what? The hallmark of the Chinese growth story is pragmatism and pursuing what works. They will determine their own destiny, regardless of the actions of outsiders. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode provides a bit of a twist on our annual overview of the fight against corruption. Research on countering corruption in America around the turn of the 20th century finds that a) it can be done, but b) it is not easy or linear, and depends to a large extent on building institutional capacity. Against that background, we look at (relatively) new institutions in South Africa, like the SIU Tribunal, the investigative Directorate and the Anti-Corruption Task Team. We also assess the on-going work of established arms of the NPA. So what? There is much to applaud in both new and existing institutions, but there are weak spots (like the SAPS) that urgently need more focus. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

Three months after our first episodes discussing coalitions, we look at three important developments: the IFP-DA agreement in KZN, the intervention of the ANC Veterans’ League, and a meeting on coalitions convened by Deputy President Paul Mashatile. We also discuss the multi-party pact and the possibility of minimum thresholds for participating in government. So what? To deal with chaos at local government level, a political agreement between major parties is crucial. It can happen now, irrespective of legislation. It would strengthen the democratic centre and bring together those who belong together. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode we look at the pressing need to integrate economics and foreign policy in a way that will advance the interests of the country. So what? South Africa’s stance on the war in Ukraine and our interactions with Russia and China have hurt us economically. On the other hand, we have legitimate foreign policy concerns which can and must be accommodated. Brazil and India have managed the situation much better. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode brings the listener something very different: a real-life story from the ground up, providing a practical example of how electricity distribution in SA will change over the near future. It is the story of a family and of a business, starting out in Hammanskraal in the 1990s with a baby in the bakkie as Dad climbed a ladder while Mum held a flashlight, to a distribution company in Mafube in the Free State working with local government and local communities, both black and white. There were demands for “a cut” along the way. They walked away and found a new place to build a new network of electricity and people. So what? Electricity distribution can be done profitably. Citizens will pay for a reliable service. If private companies are allowed in, they will carry the cost of infrastructure. Distribution will change, by choice or default. Better to do it by choice and design. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, pleasevisit his website.

A year before the term of the current parliament comes to an end, we look at what the numbers tell us about possible election results in 2024. Against the background of the chaos in municipalities governed by coalitions, what can happen if the ANC loses their national majority? We look at what different parties have said and done to indicate where they stand on governing as part of coalitions. So what? In many ways, the country is where we were in the late 1980s. Once again, we require a political initiative to get out of the quagmire. The parties of the middle need to come together to forge a new beginning. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode makes the point that Eskom is dying and cannot be saved in its current condition. Electricity provision, however, is not dying. We unpack the generation deficit causing load shedding and outline the likely path out of the conumdrum. So what? Load shedding will be with us for the next two years. There are no quick fixes, but it is not impossible either. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

Hosted Ruda Landman, The So What podcast is a series of chats with political-economic analyst JP Landman. Each episode takes a deep dive into a South African issue - load shedding, corruption, politics, economics, foreign policy or anything in between. This is the podcast where you can learn the facts and discover insights about the complex South African socio-political landscape.

After the annual UN climate change conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, we discuss the implications of South Africa’s undertaking (following COP21 in Paris in 2015) to reduce our carbon emissions by about 17% by 2030. We are the 13th largest emitter in the world, because most of our electricity comes from coal, contributing more than half of the country’s emissions. The rest is mainly caused by transport, industry, gas and diesel. Pollution and health effects at home as well as international pressure in the form of carbon taxes make change inevitable. We put a Just Energy Transition Plan on the table at COP27 which was widely lauded. How will it work? Who will pay? What about political opposition, not least from unions? So what? This episode gives a brief summary of a 216-page road map traversing a diverse and complicated field. What is clear, is that the “just energy transition” must and will happen, but it will be neither linear nor quick. The trick will be to keep an open mind and constantly improve. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode we give our annual update on the fight against corruption. We cover arrests in state capture cases, as well as monies reclaimed from individuals and companies like Bain, McKinsey and ABB. Markus Jooste and family lost assets to the Reserve Bank. So what? High-flyers, companies as well as individuals, have been charged. That is progress, even though it does not yet guarantee convictions. Most action, however, is not on the criminal but on the civil side, where billions in ill-gotten gains have been recouped. People may not be in orange overalls, but they have lost what they stole. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This is part 2 of a 2-part episode. Part 1 available here. In the midst of constant load shedding, this episode sketches a possible new future as Eskom’s 100-year monopoly is broken, the country moves from coal to renewables, and a whole new industry is born with enormous investment possibilities. We also address Eskom’s debt and the question of when load shedding will end. So what? South Africa’s biggest crisis currently is electricity, and its biggest opportunity is electricity. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This is part 1 of a 2-part episode. In the midst of constant load shedding, this episode sketches a possible new future as Eskom’s 100-year monopoly is broken, the country moves from coal to renewables, and a whole new industry is born with enormous investment possibilities. We also address Eskom’s debt and the question of when load shedding will end. So what? South Africa’s biggest crisis currently is electricity, and its biggest opportunity is electricity. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

In this episode, we connect the dots on government’s economic policy since 2018. Daily headlines can be confusing, so we focus on what has actually happened, not what was promised or planned. Areas we touch on include the macro-economic framework, spectrum release, energy reform, and structural changes in railways and harbours. So what? More space is being made for the private sector. This signals a new trajectory for investment and productivity, which can lift growth significantly. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.