The IR thinker

What happens when two states are fundamentally unequal, yet must still deal with each other? Brantly Womack joins me to unpack asymmetry theory, from guanxi and reciprocity to the question of whether the US-China rivalry can define a multinodal world order.Brantly WomackBrantly Womack is Professor Emeritus of Foreign Affairs in the Department of Politics and Senior Faculty Fellow at the Miller Center, University of Virginia, USA. His research explores asymmetric international relationships and the post-hegemonic world order, alongside the domestic politics and foreign policy of China, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and the United States.PublicationsChina and Vietnam: The Politics of AsymmetryChina Among Unequals: Asymmetric Foreign Relationships in AsiaAsymmetry and International RelationshipsRethinking the Triangle: Washington-Beijing-TaipeiRecentering Pacific Asia: Regional China and World OrderStrategic Principles for Co-Existence in a Multinodal WorldContra Schelling: The Trap of Coercive Strategy in a Multinodal EraChapters00:00 Introduction02:08 Interdependence, Dependence, and Asymmetry06:23 Asymmetry in International Relations Theory11:19 The Concept of Pacific Asia13:17 Theoretical Framework and Methodology21:45 Material Superiority and Political Control26:12 Reciprocity and Attention in Asymmetric Relations33:18 Relational Dimensions of Asymmetry Theory40:05 Asymmetry versus Hegemonic Order44:10 The Role of Guanxi in International Relations48:50 A Multinodal World Order53:09 Can Bipolarity Exist in a Multinodal World?58:35 Theoretical Limitations and Future Research1:03:13 Reception of Asymmetry Theory among Chinese ScholarsFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, John Roberts examines Azerbaijan’s evolving role in regional energy security, from its traditional position as an oil and gas exporter to emerging opportunities in electricity and renewable energy.John explores the geopolitical significance of Azerbaijan’s energy partnerships with the European Union, Türkiye, Russia, Iran, Central Asia and China, and considers whether the country can successfully transform itself into a diversified regional energy hub.John M. Roberts is a leading European energy security specialist and researcher, with particular expertise in the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Caspian energy corridors. He is a nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a Senior Partner at Methinks Ltd, a consultancy specialising in the relationship between energy, economic development and politics. John has extensive experience analysing the intersection of energy, economic development and geopolitics. He has advised and testified on Turkish, Russian, Caspian, Middle Eastern and Kurdish energy security, and has particular expertise in the pipelines connecting, or intended to connect, the Caspian region with Europe, Russia, China and India. He previously served as Managing Editor at Platts and worked with Financial Times Energy, focusing on energy development and the impact of energy on economic development. His publications include Caspian Pipelines (1996), Visions & Mirages: The Middle East in a New Era (1995), and Pipeline Politics: The Caspian and Global Energy Security (2014).Chapters00:00 Introduction02:54 Baku–Novorossiysk Pipeline [oil]05:29 Baku–Supsa Pipeline [oil]08:03 Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline [oil]10:47 Baku–Kulevi Rail Corridor [oil]12:22 Hajigabul–Astara Pipeline [gas]14:21 Hajigabul–Gazakh–Saguramo Pipeline [gas]15:08 Hajigabul–Shirvanovka–Mozdok Pipeline [gas]16:13 South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) [gas]21:15 Iğdır–Nakhchivan Pipeline [gas]23:50 Azerbaijan’s Oil and Gas: Significance for the European Union35:09 Declining Oil Production in Azerbaijan: Challenges and Prospects39:08 Black Sea Energy Cable46:31 Azerbaijan and Central Asia: The Uzbek Energy Market52:18 Could Azerbaijan Revive Its Nuclear Energy Ambitions?55:23 Green Energy Development59:40 Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Iran01:05:25 An Underexplored Area of Energy ResearchFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.Selected PublicationsEurope United: Power Politics and the Making of the European CommunityIntentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of ConflictHow States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy (with John J. Mearsheimer)Chapters00:00 Introduction02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why is Africa still importing so much of the food it consumes? What is holding back trade in food and agricultural products between African countries? In this interview, we speak with Professor David Luke, editor of How Africa Eats: Trade, Food Security and Climate Risks, an open-access book published by LSE Press.We discuss the causes of food insecurity across Africa, the role of agricultural investment, and the barriers that make it difficult for African countries to trade food with one another. Professor Luke explains why non-tariff barriers matter, where intra-African food trade falls short, and what the AfCFTA could mean for African agriculture.The conversation also covers Africa’s approach to the WTO, the future of the Malabo Declaration, countries making progress in agricultural transformation, and China’s role in African agriculture. The interview concludes with a discussion of where research on African agriculture should go next.David Luke is Professor in Practice and Strategic Director at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, LSE and Extraordinary Professor at North-West University, South Africa, specialising in African trade policy, trade negotiations, and development. PublicationsHow Africa TradesHow Africa EatsImplementing the AfCFTA: A sluggish startChapters00:00 Introduction01:39 Rethinking Africa’s Hunger Narrative06:51 The Root Causes of Food Insecurity in Africa12:28 How the Research Was Conducted15:13 Why Non-Tariff Barriers Matter for African Food Trade17:43 The Missing Link in Intra-African Food Trade20:12 Agricultural Investment: Africa’s Internal and External Drivers24:49 Africa’s WTO Strategy: Practical Outcomes Over Ideology29:11 Does the Malabo Declaration Need an Upgrade?31:11 Countries Driving Africa’s Agricultural Transformation32:23 China’s Role in African Agriculture34:36 Future Research Priorities in African AgricultureFollow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Professor Miles Kahler discusses the future of global governance in an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, shifting power balances, and growing challenges to the post-1945 international order. Drawing on his recent paper, Global Governance in the Twenty-First Century: Sustain, Reform, Transform, he examines whether existing international institutions can still adapt or whether new forms of cooperation will be required.Professor Miles Kahler is Research Professor-in-Residence and Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the School of International Service, American University. He is also a Non-resident Scholar in the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His research focuses on international institutions, global governance, international political economy, regionalism, and the evolution of the international order. He has written extensively on global governance, international cooperation, and the political economy of globalisation, and is widely recognised as one of the leading scholars in the study of international institutions.Selected Publications Global governance in the twenty-first century: Sustain, reform, transformFrom Complex Interdependence to Complex GovernanceGlobal governance in the twenty-first century: End of the Bretton Woods moment?The Bretton Woods Moment: Hierarchies, Networks, and Markets in the Long Twentieth CenturyGlobal governance: Three futuresChapters00:00 Introduction01:58 When Are Institutional Reforms No Longer Enough?05:16 Can Middle Powers Shape a New Global Order?10:21 Consensus-Based Multilateralism vs. Plurilateral Cooperation16:15 Why Is BRICS Less Coherent Than Expected in Global Governance?22:20 Why Do Countries Join BRICS? Choice or Necessity?29:19 How Technology and Supply Chains Are Redefining Spheres of Influence34:30 The Future of Values and Interests in Global Governance41:41 Does the Liberal International Order Need an Upgrade?46:11 Strengthening Regional Governance: Rules, Norms, and Institutions52:38 AI and the Future of Global Governance59:59 Has International Relations Neglected Domestic Politics?01:05:41 Underexplored Research Agendas in Global GovernanceA clarifying note at 13:18: "COP 30 reached agreement on several issues, such as a work program on climate finance, but it was not able to reach consensus on a roadmap transitioning from fossil fuels. That issue that led to the Santa Marta Conference, a coalition of the willing that aimed to phase out fossil fuels."Follow & Further ResourcesSubstack: https://theirthinker.substack.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theirthinker/X: https://x.com/theirthinkerInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/theirthinker/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/theirthinker.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/theirthinker/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.