The Dubai Connect™ Podcast | A Dubai Real Estate Podcast with Realtor® Ghada “GG” Benitez

Dubai property sales fell more than a third in August, and missiles reached the UAE earlier this year. So is this the Dubai real estate crash investors keep asking about? Dr. Anand Menon answers with the data.Average prices dipped less than 2% year on year in August, the first annual drop since 2021, while sales volume fell much further. Dr. Anand explains why: 2025 was a record AED 917 billion year, and Ramadan, the conflict and summer all hit at once. By his count, August still beat the average month from 2021 to 2025.For American and global investors, Dr. Anand lays out the four signs of a real Dubai real estate crash: falling population and jobs, handovers with no buyers, falling occupancy and rents, and a credit squeeze. Then he checks each one. Dubai's population passed 4.8 million in September 2026, and global firms like Blackstone, Capital Group and Man Group kept expanding in the UAE during the conflict.GG shares that Americans now make up about 9% of Dubai buyers, fourth among all nationalities. Dr. Anand also warns about the off-plan resale trap: buying into a huge new master community and expecting to sell in three years, before the lagoon, mall and schools exist. If you're worried about a Dubai real estate crash, start with Part 1. Part 2 covers what to do if you still owe off-plan payments.In this episode:- Why sales fell while prices barely moved- Why registered deals lag what's selling on the ground- The four signs of a real market crash- Population, jobs and new trade licenses in 2026- Why global funds kept investing during the conflict- The off-plan resale trap in new master communities00:00 Episode preview01:53 Is Dubai over?02:33 Why sales fell after a record 202508:14 What the 2% average price drop means12:11 What is a real estate market crash?14:18 Population: 4.8 million and still growing17:37 Why global institutions keep investing23:22 How the UAE prepared for the conflict27:51 Americans are now 9% of Dubai buyers34:19 Off-plan exits: the 3-year resale trapListening on Spotify? Hit follow and leave a rating. It helps more investors find the show.Want to invest in Dubai but don't know where to start? Book a free call: https://wa.me/16193397978Dubai Investor's Guide (Free Download): https://ggbenitezinternational.com/dubai-investment-guideWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/i4EqoqJ1i9s?si=FUSrUUX1aE3pIEwuI'm Ghada "GG" Benitez, California Licensed REALTOR® (DRE #01487964), Dubai RERA Licensed Broker (BRN #83445), CIPS®, and host of The Dubai Connect® PodcastWebsite - https://ggbenitezinternational.comInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/ggbenitezinternationalLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ggbenitezEmail - [email protected] the Dubai property market crashing in 2026?Average prices fell 1.7% year on year in August 2026, the first annual drop since 2021, while sales volumes fell more after a record 2025. Dr. Anand Menon calls it a slowdown, since prices haven't fallen in line with volume and population is still growing.Why did Dubai property sales drop in 2026?2025 was a record year at AED 917 billion, so 2026 months compare against an outlier. Ramadan, the regional conflict and the summer slowdown hit at once, and registered deals lag real sales by four to eight weeks.What are the signs of a real estate market crash?Dr. Anand looks for four signs together: falling population and jobs, new homes handing over with no buyers, falling occupancy and rents, and buyers unable to get financing. One slow quarter of sales isn't enough.How many Americans are buying property in Dubai?Americans were about 9% of Dubai property buyers in early 2026, ranking fourth after Indian, British and Egyptian buyers, based on DXBinteract data.

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah each suit a different kind of investor. Before you decide where to invest in UAE real estate, there's one question you need to answer first.Tariq Jarrar of Devmark says it starts with your goal and your exit. Dubai is the most liquid market thanks to its sheer volume of transactions, Abu Dhabi deliberately keeps supply tight, Sharjah builds family-focused destination communities, and Ras Al Khaimah is drawing attention with the Wynn Al Marjan resort.In part 3 of this four-part series, GG and Tariq compare the four emirates the way an overseas investor deciding where to invest in UAE real estate should: liquidity if you may sell before handover, financing for foreign buyers, lifestyle if you plan to live there, and how Golden Visa timing differs by emirate. They also cover why Americans are now looking at Abu Dhabi for NYU, Disney, the Louvre and the new Harry Potter lands, and at Ras Al Khaimah for its beaches and gaming hub.Then Tariq takes on the oversupply question. He explains why UAE demand is hard to measure, since population growth comes from people moving in, while GG points to scarce segments like waterfront homes, villas and commercial space. Their rule for deciding where to invest in UAE real estate: know your exit buyer before you become the entry buyer.In this episode:- Why Dubai is the most liquid emirate- Abu Dhabi's tightly controlled supply- Sharjah's destination communities and Ras Al Khaimah beyond the casino- How Golden Visa timing differs by emirate- Is Dubai oversupplied? Why it depends on the area- Know your exit buyer before you buy00:00 Episode preview01:41 Comparing Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah02:51 Why Americans are looking beyond Dubai03:39 Start with your goal: investor or end user?05:14 Which emirate is the most liquid?07:28 Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah: what each offers10:14 Golden Visa rules differ by emirate11:14 Is it too late for Ras Al Khaimah?12:53 Is Dubai oversupplied? Supply vs demand18:48 Know your exit buyer before you buyListening on Spotify? Hit follow and leave a rating. It helps more investors find the show.Want to invest in Dubai but don't know where to start? Book a free call: https://wa.me/16193397978Dubai Investor's Guide (Free Download): https://ggbenitezinternational.com/dubai-investment-guideWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/8nljC9hsgYA?si=q3QytQ3dV1FPlsf_I'm Ghada "GG" Benitez, California Licensed REALTOR® (DRE #01487964), Dubai RERA Licensed Broker (BRN #83445), CIPS®, and host of The Dubai Connect® PodcastWebsite - https://ggbenitezinternational.comInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/ggbenitezinternationalLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ggbenitezEmail - [email protected] emirate is best for property investment in the UAE?It depends on your goal. Tariq Jarrar says Dubai is the most liquid if you may want to sell, Abu Dhabi keeps supply tight for long-term holders, and Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah offer lower entry prices and different lifestyles.Can foreigners buy property outside Dubai?Yes. Abu Dhabi, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah all allow foreign ownership in designated areas. Each emirate has its own rules and registration system, so check the specific area before you buy.Do Golden Visa rules differ by emirate?The AED 2 million property threshold applies across the UAE, but timing and paperwork differ. In Dubai, off-plan buyers can apply once the Oqood is registered, while other emirates may have different requirements.Is Dubai property oversupplied?Not across the board. Some areas with a lot of new off-plan supply may face more competition, while waterfront homes, villas, townhouses and commercial space remain scarce.

Dubai has no income tax, but if you're an American, US tax on Dubai property still applies. So what do you actually owe on your rent, and on your profit when you sell?Cross-border tax specialist Aamir Jewani of Finection runs the numbers. For a Florida couple earning $200,000 with an AED 2 million rental, the yearly tax bill was only a few hundred dollars apart whether the property was in Dubai or Florida. The main difference is depreciation: 30 years for a foreign home vs 27.5 for a US home.For Americans investing from the US, Aamir explains why owning in your own name keeps things simple, and why buying through a UAE company or pooling money with a friend can trigger heavy IRS reporting like Form 5471, with penalties in the thousands. He also covers FBAR rules once your foreign accounts pass $10,000, and how your state, short-term rentals and income level change the US tax on Dubai property.If you move to Dubai, the picture changes. Aamir walks through the 2026 foreign earned income exclusion of $132,900 per person, the extra foreign housing exclusion with a higher Dubai limit, and the 330-day rule. Then he covers capital gains brackets, and how a 1031 exchange can defer US tax on Dubai property when you sell and buy another foreign property. This episode is for education only and isn't tax advice.In this episode:- Why Dubai and Florida rentals are taxed almost the same in the US- When owning through a UAE company creates costly reporting- FBAR: when your foreign bank accounts must be reported- The foreign earned income and housing exclusions in Dubai- Short-term vs long-term capital gains rates- How a foreign-to-foreign 1031 exchange works00:00 Episode preview01:41 What American investors in Dubai actually owe04:36 The ground rules: worldwide income and no tax treaty06:38 Case study: Dubai rental vs Florida rental10:01 What changes the math: state, rental type, ownership12:57 Foreign partnerships, companies and FBAR18:00 Case study: moving to Dubai and the FEIE22:42 Foreign housing exclusion and Dubai's higher limit25:02 Capital gains tax when you sell28:08 1031 exchange for foreign propertyListening on Spotify? Hit follow and leave a rating. It helps more investors find the show.Want to invest in Dubai but don't know where to start? Book a free call: https://wa.me/16193397978Dubai Investor's Guide (Free Download): https://ggbenitezinternational.com/dubai-investment-guideWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/wi8twV2Bqcg?si=ZMGbgMuPPgqmX1mpI'm Ghada "GG" Benitez, California Licensed REALTOR® (DRE #01487964), Dubai RERA Licensed Broker (BRN #83445), CIPS®, and host of The Dubai Connect® PodcastWebsite - https://ggbenitezinternational.comInstagram - https://www.instagram.com/ggbenitezinternationalLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ggbenitezEmail - [email protected] Americans pay US tax on Dubai rental income?Yes. US citizens and green card holders report worldwide income, so Dubai rent goes on your US return like US rent. With no UAE income tax and no US-UAE treaty, there's no foreign tax credit to offset it.Can you do a 1031 exchange with Dubai property?Yes, foreign for foreign. You can sell a Dubai rental and buy another property outside the US, but you can't swap between foreign and US property. It needs a qualified intermediary and must meet the 45-day and 180-day deadlines.What is the foreign earned income exclusion for 2026?It's $132,900 per person for earned income like salary or business income, not rent. You must spend at least 330 full days outside the US in a 12-month period, or qualify as a bona fide resident abroad.Should Americans buy Dubai property through a company?Usually not for tax reasons. A UAE company can count as a controlled foreign corporation, which brings complex IRS reporting like Form 5471 and high penalties if you miss it. Owning personally keeps things simpler.

A beautiful property, a top developer and a great location can still be a bad investment if the numbers don't work. So how do you work out your real Dubai property ROI before you buy?Tariq Jarrar of Devmark explains why the figure most people quote as ROI is usually just gross rental yield. Once you subtract service charges, maintenance, furnishing, vacancy and financing, your net yield could land closer to 4 or 5%. That's still higher than most top global markets, but it's the number you should plan around.In the final part of this four-part series, GG and Tariq break down the numbers overseas investors should check before buying in the UAE. They walk through holding costs, why a 40% capital appreciation projection means little without an exit strategy, and a simple example: buy at AED 2 million, sell at AED 2.15 million, spend AED 150,000 on upkeep, and you've only broken even. Getting your Dubai property ROI right starts with what goes out of your pocket as well as what comes in.For off-plan buyers, Tariq explains why the best time to exit is usually after handover, why you should budget to hold until at least handover rather than the earliest date the SPA allows an assignment, and why you should confirm a post-handover payment plan can transfer to the next buyer. GG also covers why American investors still owe US tax on rental income and gains, and why that belongs in any honest Dubai property ROI calculation.In this episode:- Rental yield vs ROI, and why the difference matters- Service charges, maintenance and other costs that cut your net yield- How to test a capital appreciation projection- Why the best off-plan exit is usually after handover- Checking that a post-handover payment plan transfers to your buyer- Why US investors must factor in US tax00:00 Episode preview00:47 Can a great property still be a bad investment?01:52 Net yield: the number most investors get wrong03:43 Service charges and costs that cut your yield05:29 Factoring in mortgage and payment plan costs06:35 How to test a capital appreciation projection08:37 Why you need expert help in a selection market10:03 US taxes for American investors in Dubai11:52 Off-plan SPA terms and post-handover plans13:20 Why the sweet spot is after handoverListening on Spotify? Hit follow and leave a rating. It helps more investors find the show.Want to invest in Dubai but don't know where to start? Book a free call: https://wa.me/16193397978Dubai Investor's Guide (Free Download): https://ggbenitezinternational.com/dubai-investment-guideWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/wm_6pL_hrbU?si=4sWkxfzyPIBhQYv9Ghada "GG" Benitez, California Licensed REALTOR® (DRE #01487964), Dubai RERA Licensed Broker (BRN #83445), CIPS®, and host of The Dubai Connect® PodcastWebsite - https://ggbenitezinternational.com Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ggbenitezinternationalLinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ggbenitezEmail - [email protected] do you calculate ROI on a Dubai property?Start with the cash you actually put in, then factor in rental income, all ownership costs, any mortgage and your expected sale price. Rental yield (annual rent divided by price) is only one part of ROI.What is the net rental yield in Dubai?According to Tariq Jarrar of Devmark, net yield after all costs can land around 4 to 5%, depending on the property. Service charges alone typically take 15% to 25% of gross rent, depending on the area.How much are service charges in Dubai?Service charges typically range from about AED 8 to 35 per square foot a year, depending on the area and building. Check the exact rate per square foot before you buy.When is the best time to sell an off-plan property in Dubai?Tariq says the sweet spot is usually right around or after handover, when buyers who want to live in the property, rent it or finance it can come in. Budget to hold until at least handover rather than counting on an early assignment.

Dubai rental yields slipped from about 6.7% to 6% in recent months, according to GuestReady's Burhan Hayat. So who is renting all these new homes, and what happens when the winter season arrives?Burhan's team manages 400+ holiday homes across Dubai, and he shares what happened inside that portfolio. When tourists paused in March, Dubai residents filled the gap with one to three month stays, making up about 45% of bookings. By August, 72% of guests were international again, and nightly rates were up about 80% from the summer lows.If you're weighing Dubai property investment from the US or anywhere overseas, this episode answers the question many investors ask first: who will rent my property? GG and Burhan walk through the latest Dubai tourism numbers, where guests are coming from now, and what to expect this winter. They also compare Dubai rental yields with London, New York and Sydney, where returns tend to run lower.You'll hear why the market is now splitting by area and property type, why waterfront homes and three-bedroom family units are holding up best, and how Dubai lets you run a short-term rental all year, while London caps it at 90 nights. If you want the real numbers behind Dubai rental yields before you buy, start with this conversation.In this episode:- How holiday home occupancy recovered after March- Why mid-term stays of one to three months carried owners through summer- Where Dubai's guests are coming from: Europe, Asia and North America- How Dubai's returns compare with London, New York and Sydney- Which properties are beating the city average- How overseas owners track bookings, pricing and their calendar from anywhereAbout the guest:Burhan Hayat is Head of Real Estate UAE & UK at GuestReady, a global property management company that runs short-term rentals across Dubai.Listening on Spotify? Hit follow and leave a rating. It helps more investors find the show.Want to invest in Dubai but don't know where to start? Book a free call: https://wa.me/16193397978Dubai Investor's Guide (Free Download): https://ggbenitezinternational.com/dubai-investment-guideWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jxRhCqjLwoU?si=fks1Z34OtmW-jC3SI'm Ghada "GG" Benitez, California Licensed REALTOR® (DRE #01487964), Dubai RERA Licensed Broker (BRN #83445), CIPS®, and host of The Dubai Connect® PodcastWebsite: https://ggbenitezinternational.com Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ggbenitezinternationalLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ggbenitez Email: [email protected]