Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry

The Swiss watch industry is in one of its most difficult periods in decades, with ten established brands down 15% or more in revenue — but that doesn't mean everything is struggling. In this episode, Gabe and Asher explore three segments of the market that are thriving against the tide: independent watchmakers, microbrands brands, and neo-vintage. Along the way, they examine why brands like Breguet, Roger Dubuis, and Girard-Perregaux may have upside despite their current numbers, while others like Blancpain and Panerai remain stuck. The conversation also teases an exciting new brand partnership launching on Collective Horology's website. Independent watchmakers are winning on the back of creativity, risk-taking, and a business structure that resists commoditization. Using MB&F's Google Trends data and Czapek's shareholder financials as case studies, Gabe and Asher unpack why these brands are gaining both mind share and revenue — and why their tight retail ecosystems protect the value proposition that mass-market brands have lost. They also coin a new term for the sub-$5,000 segment: "challenger brands," a category that encompasses microbrands and independents alike, from Christopher Ward and Fears to Studio Underdog and Brew. These brands are eroding the traditional luxury moat, aided by a media landscape shift that rewards authenticity over gatekeeping. The final winner in a down market is neo-vintage — watches from the 1990s and early 2000s that offer smaller proportions, better wearability, and tremendous value relative to their modern counterparts. Gabe highlights rising prices on references like the Rolex 14060, 16710, and 14270, noting the uptick predates tariffs and reflects a genuine shift in collector taste, particularly among Gen Z buyers. Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, and IWC are standouts in this space, with neo-vintage pieces that feel more relevant to today's preferences than what those same brands currently produce. It's a trend the hosts believe will only accelerate — and one that established brands ignore at their own risk. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Rumours about the Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi have reached a boiling point. Authorised dealer websites — controlled by Rolex, not the retailers — have quietly dropped the reference, and WatchPro is reporting that dealers have been told to expect no further deliveries. Asher finds it a dull story; Gabe is more interested in what comes next from Rolex in dress watches, the 1908 collection, and whether the long-dormant Milgauss finally returns. The centrepiece of the episode is the fallout from the annual Morgan Stanley/LuxConsult Swiss Watch Industry report, which drew unusually public pushback from Swatch Group and Tudor this year. Gabe frames Swatch's objections in context: a holding company with depressed stock, underperforming peers, and an activist investor pressing against the Hayek family's control. Their counter-arguments cherry-pick individual figures without offering systematic data — and suing, he notes, gets complicated fast when Swiss civil law has no discovery process. The episode closes on Kalshi's new watch futures prediction market, built in partnership with Bezel. Gabe is sceptical — the market is too thin, insider-trading risk too obvious, and a wrong prediction leaves you with nothing. Both hosts agree it has the feel of early-2020s financial-instrument mania and probably won't survive scrutiny. The episode opens with an announcement for Collective Horology’s Los Angeles Open House watch show (June 6, RSVP required) and closes with a conversation about the podcast’s focus on the business of watches and why that perspective matters to collectors and industry observers. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Jaeger-LeCoultre was once the top-selling watch brand in the Richemont Group, a top-10 brand globally, and a GPHG darling under the legendary Gunter Blumlein. Today, it's slipped to number 16 in the industry and lost much of its cultural relevance. What happened? Gabe and Asher unpack JLC's rise, decline, and possible rebirth in light of reports that a consortium led by CEO Jerome Lambert may acquire the brand from Richemont. They argue that JLC has been boxed in on all sides — unable to compete upmarket with Vacheron and Lange, unable to lean into shaped watches alongside Cartier, and stuck producing safe, spreadsheet-driven product instead of the boundary-pushing watchmaking its 1,200-caliber history warrants. With independence potentially on the horizon, the hosts debate what a liberated JLC could look like — and why this might be one of the most exciting stories in the watch industry right now. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Update: As of February 21, 2026, the Trump administration now says they will set the new "Global Tariff" rate at 15% (not 10%), maintaining the same effective rate on Switzerland, at least for 150 days. On this episode, we unpack breaking news that sent shockwaves through the watch world: the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Trump-era emergency tariffs, instantly voiding the recent 15% levy on Swiss watches. We explain what this actually means for collectors and retailers, why refunds remain a massive open question, and why—despite the ruling—don’t expect watch prices to suddenly drop. Between looming replacement tariffs, a weakening dollar, and ongoing currency pressure against the Swiss franc, volatility is far from over. We then dive into COSC’s newly announced “Excellence" chronometer standard and ask the uncomfortable question: is this meaningful progress, or a defensive half-measure against METAS? We break down how the new accuracy benchmarks compare, why third-party certification still matters culturally, and how ever-stricter chronometer claims may be setting unrealistic expectations for mechanical watches that have to survive real life on the wrist. Finally, we look at Audemars Piguet’s remarkable 2025 performance—up 10% in a brutal market—and what’s driving it: massive price increases, a shift toward high complications, boutique-only distribution, and a growing focus on lifetime customer value. We also explore AP’s evolving brand strategy under new leadership, the push toward experiential retail, and why the very clients AP wants most may have the least patience for its increasingly gated buying process. It’s a wide-ranging conversation about tariffs, accuracy, and how modern luxury watch brands are reshaping their futures. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

In this episode, we dive into the growing wave of consolidation—and potential deconsolidation—sweeping through the watch industry, from confirmed brand sales to mounting rumors around major maisons. Rather than speculate, we focus on what actually happens after a brand leaves a luxury group, and why leadership, distribution, and product strategy matter far more than deal headlines. First, we unpack a cautionary case study: Ebel’s spin-off from LVMH to Movado. Despite meaningful product upgrades and stronger positioning under LVMH, Ebel ultimately lost momentum when placed into a retail and marketing ecosystem that couldn’t sustain its upmarket ambitions—showing how misaligned infrastructure can quietly dilute even historic brands. We then contrast that with Girard-Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin’s management buyout from Kering, where focused leadership and renewed investment in watchmaking are already driving creative and commercial resurgence. Together, these case studies reveal a simple truth: spin-offs don’t succeed or fail because of ownership alone—they succeed or fail based on vision, execution, and whether the new stewards truly understand how to build great watch brands. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we zoom out to the state of the watch business, using Watches of Switzerland as a real-time bellwether. We unpack strong holiday performance alongside shrinking margins, then dig into accelerating U.S. retail consolidation: why large groups are acquiring family-owned authorized dealers, how Rolex factors into approvals and allocations, and what this growing concentration could mean for collectors and regional markets. We then connect the dots on Swiss export data, tariffs, currency volatility, and rising material costs—and why pricing pressure in the U.S. isn’t going away, it’s just evolving. From pent-up demand following tariff relief to a weakening dollar versus the Swiss franc, we explore how macro forces are reshaping brand strategy and retail economics. We close by reacting to Audemars Piguet’s newest release, the Neo Frame, and discuss what this jump-hour design signals about AP’s creative direction and its efforts to expand beyond the core Royal Oak playbook. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we zoom out and examine a broader shift underway in the watch industry as major groups begin to prioritize focus over expansion. Using the sale of Baume & Mercier as a starting point, we break down why brand exits and portfolio pruning have returned as strategic tools, and what this move reveals about consolidation, integration costs, and the realities of owning watch brands at scale. We then turn to the other side of the equation, unpacking rumors around Zenith and why selling a deeply integrated brand is far more complicated than headlines suggest. This leads to a wider discussion about how watch groups think about differentiation, redundancy, and long-term brand value when growth slows and pressure increases across the middle of the market. Finally, we shift to Watches & Wonders and what presence and placement at the show now signal. We talk through H. Moser & Cie.’s expanded role, including its move into Montblanc’s former booth, and what that says about independence and momentum, alongside Audemars Piguet’s positioning at the show and why it matters. Taken together, this episode is about consolidation, visibility, and how the watch industry is quietly reshaping itself in real time. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we dig into reports that Patek Philippe may roll back U.S. retail prices—by as much as 8%—after last year’s sharp tariff- and currency-driven increases. We break down why the math isn’t as simple as tariffs going down and prices following, how import costs actually work at the wholesale level, and why this move raises uncomfortable questions for collectors who bought during the peak pricing window. We then zoom out to the broader issue of volatility. From shifting tariff policy to currency swings and geopolitical uncertainty, we explain why brands are being pushed into a kind of reactive, market-based pricing that’s common for commodities but highly unusual for luxury watches. We compare Patek’s approach with Rolex’s more measured strategy and show how very different tactics can still land brands in roughly the same place over time. Finally, we look at what this all means for the secondary market. While headline data suggests pre-owned prices stabilized in 2025, we explain why that rebound is narrowly driven by Patek, Rolex, and AP—and why value retention for most watches continues to weaken as new prices rise faster than used ones. The takeaway: the market may look calmer on the surface, but underneath, volatility remains the defining feature. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we dig into how global wealth trends—rather than hype cycles or short-term market noise—are reshaping the luxury watch industry. Drawing on reporting originally published by ScrewDownCrown (Substack), we use the UBS Global Wealth Report to examine the rapid rise of the “EMILLI” cohort: individuals with $1–5 million in net worth. This group has quadrupled since 2000 and now represents the core audience for sub-$10,000 to $50,000 watches, helping explain why mechanical timepieces remain viable luxury goods in 2025 despite their declining practical relevance. We then look at how this wealth is distributed geographically—and why that matters. The U.S. remains a structural engine for the watch industry thanks to strong millionaire growth and a powerful wealth effect driven by real estate and equity markets. China’s growth is slowing, Western Europe is shrinking, and while markets like India offer long-term potential, today’s addressable audience is far smaller than population headlines suggest. The result is a global landscape with fewer obvious growth levers than brands would like to admit. Finally, we explore how inequality itself fuels luxury demand. Drawing on academic research and firsthand experience, we look at how hierarchical workplaces and concentrated wealth amplify status-driven consumption across income levels. Watches operate not just as objects of desire, but as social signals—markers of success, belonging, and aspiration. Understanding these structural forces, not just products or trends, is key to understanding where the watch market goes next. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

We kick off the first Openwork episode of 2026 by breaking down the latest watch price increases from Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Tudor, with a sharp focus on why U.S. buyers are seeing significantly higher jumps than Europe and the UK. We unpack how tariffs, currency swings, commodity prices, and inflation are converging—and why, once prices move up, they almost never come back down. We also contrast how mega-brands and independents respond very differently to these pressures. From there, we dig into new data showing a real slowdown in the Swiss watch industry. Exports are down sharply, job losses are mounting, and more brands are relying on Switzerland’s short-time work programs to stabilize their workforce. We explore the downstream effects of trade friction on suppliers, labor, and long-term pricing, and why government intervention has become a critical backstop for the industry. We close by reacting to early 2026 industry predictions, including claims that larger watch case sizes are making a comeback. Using actual sales data, we question whether this is a real shift or just cyclical online chatter, and look ahead to Watches and Wonders and what recent brand moves may signal about creativity, retail strategy, and power dynamics in the year ahead. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we share something a little different by sharing an installment from The Watches of Podcast, a new series where we step away from industry-wide analysis and focus deeply on individual brands—their history, philosophy, people, and, importantly, their watches. Each episode is designed as a focused, evergreen exploration of a single brand, and here we use that format to zero in on Ming’s dive watches, a category that has quietly become one of the most revealing expressions of the brand’s identity. We trace how Ming approached the dive watch not as a traditional tool-first object, but as a sculptural, design-led problem to solve. From early experimental concepts to fully realized production models, we talk about how the brand steadily moved away from simply “doing a dive watch” and toward creating dive watches that could only exist as Ming designs. The discussion centers on proportion, restraint, and engineering choices that prioritize wearability and originality without abandoning the functional expectations of the genre. Finally, we focus on the modern era of Ming dive watches, where everything clicks into place: compact dimensions, inventive use of sapphire and rotating dials, thoughtful movement customization, and distinct aesthetic identities across models like the Bluefin and the Uni. We reflect on why these watches resonate so strongly with collectors, why they earned serious recognition within the industry, and why their final re-release feels like the close of a meaningful chapter—one that shows how Ming redefined what a contemporary dive watch can be. We’ll be back next week with a new episode of Openwork. In the meantime, enjoy The Dive Watches of Ming. We hope you like it as much as we enjoyed making it. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode, we step back to assess where the watch industry actually landed in 2025, revisiting our prior predictions with a focus on the bigger forces at work rather than scorekeeping. We talk candidly about the pressure points that defined the year—pricing fatigue, currency and tariff shocks, and the uneven mood among collectors—while also acknowledging the resilience of independent watchmaking and the ways enthusiasm managed to persist despite real headwinds. From there, the conversation shifts to what those experiences mean looking ahead. We explore how the volatility of the U.S. market is likely to reshape industry behavior in 2026, pushing brands to think more globally and rebalance their attention toward Asia. This isn’t framed as a retreat, but as a strategic response to risk, growth, and changing demographics, alongside a growing appreciation among collectors for watches and design voices emerging from outside the traditional European center of gravity. Finally, we zoom in on the cultural and structural changes we see gaining momentum: the rising influence of Gen Z, evolving definitions of value and novelty, and a gradual move away from public-facing watch discourse toward smaller, more intentional communities. Whether through new approaches to complications, aesthetics, manufacturing, or how collectors connect with one another, we see an industry that is fragmenting in interesting ways—less centralized, more experimental, and increasingly shaped by how people actually engage with watches today. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

On this episode of Openwork, we dig into the long-awaited reduction of U.S. tariffs on Swiss watches, which finally dropped from 39% to 15% after weeks of confusion and delay. We explain what actually changed, why the rollout took more than a month after the initial agreement, and how the U.S. customs system ultimately flipped the switch. While the lower rate is meaningful relief for the industry, we also talk through the real-world complications around retroactivity, post-summary corrections, and why many shipments were still hit with the higher rate during the transition period. From there, we zoom out to look at what the latest export data is telling us about the health of the watch market in 2025. Swiss watch exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply, contributing to one of the toughest post-COVID years for the industry despite strength at the very high end. We discuss how tariffs, currency swings, delayed shipments, and tighter payment terms create knock-on effects that ripple through brands, suppliers, and retailers long before they show up clearly in headline numbers. We also cover a few developments that stood out to us, including LVMH’s growing momentum in fine watchmaking and its increasingly visible role in the independent space, as well as the surprising strength of jewelry-focused brands like Van Cleef & Arpels in the secondary market. Finally, we close with a hands-on discussion of the new Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean, looking at where it succeeds, where it falls short, and what it says about Omega’s broader strategy as it continues to define itself against Rolex. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

In this episode of Openwork, we talk with our sales director, Geoff Souder, about what fundamentally changes when you move from selling traditional luxury watches to selling independent brands. Drawing on decades of experience with mainstream names like Rolex and Patek Philippe, Geoff explains how scale and standardization create a polished but often homogenous retail experience, then contrasts that with the realities of independence—where there is no built-in foot traffic and every relationship must be earned. The conversation centers on how independent watches shift the meaning of ownership inward, away from status and recognition and toward personal connection, artistic intent, and patronage, ultimately reshaping not just how watches are sold, but how they’re understood and valued. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Openwork is going weekly. In addition to our classic shows which focus on a specific topic or guest, we’re introducing a new format: a discussion of current events in the watch industry. So this week, we take a look at some tariff news (or lack thereof), supplier challenges, the significant growth of India, along with a few new releases. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Today we’re talking about the rise of independent hype watches. Until very recently, as we’ve discussed on this podcast, independent watchmaking was something of a backwater of the watch industry or at best the realm of the cognoscenti. But in recent years, creations from the likes of MB&F, Simon Brette, Rexhep Rexhepi and today’s guest Sylvain Berneron have become objects of desire, cutthroat demand and even speculation. How did it get this way? What are the drivers? And what role do the brands and watchmakers themselves play in the economy of hype? Our guest is Sylvain Berneron, a French-born industrial and fine-arts trained designer who, after early roles in automotive design at BMW, moved into the watch world — spending five years at Breitling (ultimately as Chief Product Officer) and earlier working for the Richemont Group on brands such as IWC and Jaeger‑LeCoultre. In 2022 Sylvain founded his independent brand Berneron (based in Neuchâtel, Switzerland) and launched the Mirage collection, noted for its all-gold movement, shaped asymmetric case. And this summer, he unveiled his second collection, the Quantième Annuel. Both collections are highly limited – variants are produced in just 24 units each annually. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

This week we’re coming to you from Geneva, where we’ve attended the GPHG award ceremony, celebrated Czapek’s 10th anniversary, and had some time to experience the city’s horological treasures. We share a recap of our time in Geneva, including what everyone who attended the GPHG is really talking about. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

Today we’re talking to someone who has made the transition from watchmaker to journalist to watch brand executive. In fact, it’s not so much a transition but a career expansion as he still assembles watches while creating copious content and works in various business roles for a number of watch brands. Of course, we’re talking to none other than Rob Nudds, the watch industry’s renaissance man. Rob's latest collaboration with Straum: Straum × TRTS Jan Mayen Titanium Stormy Seas. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

It’s the Omega-sode. We’re taking a look at the business of Omega: How they went from the world’s number one watch brand – both in terms of sales and units shipped – to number three, what happened along the way, and where they may be headed next. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

We're live at WatchTime New York 2025 with Nicholas Bowman-Scargill, 4th Managing Director of Fears. We discuss the growth of WindUp, WatchTime and the many other watch happenings in New York this past week, including what the brands are talking about behind closed doors. Yes, a bit of tea. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology, Openwork goes inside the watch industry. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.