BFBS Sitrep

The Chief of Defence Staff refuses to say cuts are coming, but has confirmed there isn’t enough money for everything they want to do to make the Armed Forces war-ready and transformed for a high-tech future. Professor Michael Clarke and former RAF Deputy Director of Operations Greg Bagwell explain the “hard choices” once again facing defence, with the vital Defence Investment Plan still not ready.We’ve also learned that there isn’t a national defence plan for the event of war, but one is being worked on. Sian Grzeszczyk Melbourne explains why new rules making it easier to call up veterans are a key part of that.And Alex Baker MP tells Kate Gerbeau why she’s lobbying for a new Defence Investment and Resilience bank, and how she thinks it could ease the money worries.

In his 22 year army career Ash Alexander-Cooper was shot multiple times, targeted by a suicide bomber, and caught in numerous explosions.  But he has taken those traumatic moments, learnt from them, and now uses those experiences to help others with leadership and resilience.Now he’s teamed up with leading neuropsychologist Dr Jessica Miller for a new book, “Mindful Soldier”, which tells the stories of Ash’s experiences and  explains the science of how our brains manage such extreme moments.They tell Kate Gerbeau how we can all use techniques, from squaddie humour to “helicopter view”, to adapt and thrive when we face life’s challenges.(Author profits from Mindful Soldier will support the Royal British Veterans Enterprise charity, and the Gurkha Welfare Trust.  It is available from their stores at https://rbveshop.org/products/mindful-soldier-ash-alexander-cooper and https://www.gwt.org.uk/ )

Denmark says US threats to take Greenland by force would ‘end’ NATO.  Does NATO have any plan to deal with an ally-on-ally attack?  Which side would the UK take if it happened? Or is it all just about Trump’s “art of the deal”?  Former UK ambassador to NATO Lord Ricketts shares his insights.The US was said to have finally offered a security backstop for Ukraine when the UK and France formally signed-off their intent to put boots on the ground for any peace deal.  But when you look at the detail, is there anything actually new there?And why did a fleet of US special-operations aircraft fly into the UK this week?  Was it just for the seizure of an oil-tanker, might it have something to do with Iran, or is it all an attempt to distract from something else?

It’s seven years since the jihadists’ caliphate was brought to a complete end, but IS continues to attack in Syria and there are signs of a potential resurgence.The RAF and French Air Force have just bombed what they believe was an underground weapons and explosives store.Yet the US led coalition against IS, including the UK’s Operation Shader, is supposed to be winding down in 2026.Dr. Charlie Winter, chief research officer of the intelligence platform ExTrac, explains how the fall of President Assad has allowed IS a year of rebuilding, and why the US and UK should not take their eyes off the ball.

The outcome of the Ukraine war is arguably the most immediate key to our security in the UK, and if the fighting ends our Armed Forces may be sent to Ukraine to secure not just its future but also ours.At the same time the Chief of Defence Staff has warned we all need to be prepared for the possibility of war coming to the UK.So what kind of year does this set out for Britain’s servicemen and women?Former Army Officer Dominic Nicholls, now Associate Editor for Defence at The Telegraph, explains why they may be facing their biggest ask since the Falklands War.

President Trump’s “America First” agenda has now been translated into an official security strategy with Europe at the bottom of the list.Will that mean big moves of US military capability away from Europe in 2026, even as war rages in Ukraine?How should the rest of NATO adapt, and how will Russia respond?Retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges explains the picture right now, and how it could change over the next year.

China is the world’s fastest growing military power and likes to keep the world guessing.Might it use that military power against Taiwan in 2026, or will this standoff remain the dog that doesn’t bark?Will the crisis between Japan and China remain a diplomatic one, or could harsh words become hard action? And might tensions in the South China Sea boil over?Dr Zeno Leoni, author of “Grand Strategy and The Rise of China” and a lecturer at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, shares his thoughts on what lies ahead.

Britain’s Armed Forces go into 2026 with two big missions, become war-ready and transform for a high-tech future.There’s also the possibility of being deployed to Ukraine, if and when the fighting ends, and as always responding to unexpected events.Retired General Sir Richard Barrons, one of the authors of the Strategic Defence Review, explains the tasks, challenges, and events that will face servicemen and women in 2026.

Global tensions are high going into 2026, but will they tip over into fighting and if so, where?Could a battered and bruised Iran hit back against the US and Israel? Will we face a resurgence of jihadist terrorism? And after the most serious clash between India and Pakistan for half a century in 2025, what could be the big surprise of the next 12 months?Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor for The Economist, tells us where he’s watching and why for the next big conflict. 

Could hundreds or thousands of British troops be sent to Ukraine to support a peace plan in 2026? If there’s no deal how can Ukraine turn the tide of Russian gains? And where in the world might we see a new major conflict break out?Sitrep brings together some of the finest minds in defence to assess what the year ahead holds.Will Moldova suffer a stealth invasion of “little green men”? Would we intervene if it did? And have we taken the eye off the ball of global terrorist threats?The Chief of Defence Staff says none of us can tell what the “absolute risk” might be, but that “trends are clear”. Professor Micheal Clarke, Kate Gerbeau and friends explain where those trends are pointing

Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy prioritises improving relations with Russia and China, while calling for resistance to “weak leaders” in Europe.Professor Michael Clarke explains why he thinks this will embolden Russia rather than giving it an incentive to de-escalate, and former US State Department insider Dr Karin von Hippel assesses what it could mean for the US military footprint in Europe.The head of the Royal Navy has warned we’re “only just holding on” against Russia deep in the Atlantic.  Former submarine captain Ryan Ramsey explains why the service is struggling, while Sian Grzeszczyk Melbourne reveals how and why the First Sea Lord’s speech has caused big waves in Whitehall.And our sovereign bases in Cyprus have played a key role in almost every major British overseas operation in living memory.  So why did the UK nearly abandon them 50 years ago?

When a Greek military coup and Turkish invasion plunged Cyprus into a bloody conflict, more than 30,000 British military personnel and their dependents were caught up in the crisis.They didn’t want to be part of the fighting, but came perilously close to being dragged in, more than once.Kate Gerbeau talks to historian Andrew Southam about his new book, which sheds new light on those events and how they led the government of the time to consider our Cyprus bases “a liability”.

The Royal Navy is “vulnerable to promoting toxic leaders”.  This is not a warning from a pressure group, or a critical MPs report, it has come from the new First Sea Lord.Former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe shares personal experiences to explain why and how leadership assessment could be overhauled, and how he thinks it can learn from civilian organisations.Germany is spending big on defence and doing it quickly, while the UK’s transformation is much slower but has much more strategic thinking.  Could we combine our strengths to overcome our weaknesses?And the Royal Navy’s biggest deployment for decades has concluded.  After more than 7 months and 40,000 miles, has the 2025 carrier strike group shown British strength or exposed fragility?

Just two weeks after being declared safe, with a squadron ready to go, a “Do Not Use” order has been issued for Ajax armoured vehicles, because of more noise and vibration injuries.James Wharton from BFBS Forces News, who used to drive the vehicles Ajax is supposed to replace, reveals the levels of concern among troops and Professor Michael Clarke explains why this is looking like a huge problem for the Army.The MoD says rules of engagement have been updated after the Russian spy-ship Yantar aimed a laser at an RAF plane.  From playground-games to bumper-cars, retired Commodore Steve Prest explains the options they may have taken.And can a digital-first hybrid-navy make up for gaps in the surface fleet, amid new signs of delays to the UK’s next-generation frigate?

Investigations into past actions by British forces, from Northern Ireland to Afghanistan, are damaging morale, leading some to quit the forces, and threatening our national security. So said 8 retired generals and a retired Air Marshal in an open letter calling on the government to “restore legal clarity” with a “new honest framework”Sitrep asks how do we can ensure servicemen and women have confidence they won’t be dragged through inquiries, or court, for doing their job properly?Kate and Mike talk to the Reverend Nicholas Mercer, who was Commander Legal for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and former Army officer turned barrister Patrick Hennessey. They explain how legal decisions worked when they were in uniform and the need to balance protections with accountability when wrongdoing happens.

As Russian troops battle to secure their most significant gain in Ukraine in over a yar – we look at how they’re drawing on deception tactics from the second world war.Also, the world’s largest warship arrives in the Caribbean as the US continues to strike suspected drugs-trafficking boats in the region  – have concerns over the legality of that action led Britain to stop some intelligence sharing with its US ally?And –The Army’s first new armoured fighting vehicle in 30 years – what will the deployment of Ajax mean for today’s battlefield? 

Donald Trump’s suggested the US could restart explosive tests of nuclear weapons, after more than 30 years. Is this a symptom of a nuclear arms race already underway, or could it kickstart one?William Alberque, who has played a leading role in NATO’s nuclear policies, and Jon Wolfsthal who advised President Obama, share their thoughts on whether the US is about to break a global ban on detonations, and what that could mean for us all.Sitrep also explains how atomic weapons have been tested and verified, without explosions, since the 1990s.And as the UK develops a new nuclear warhead in parallel with the US, Professor Michael Clarke assesses whether any testing row could drag Britain in by association. 

The multibillion-pound deal to deliver nuclear powered submarines for the UK and Australia is facing questions just four years into the decades long plan. In the UK there are amber and red warnings for building the boats and propulsion systems, for its part the US is struggling to build enough Virginia class subs, and Australia faces a monumental challenge to be ready for its first nuclear vessels. So will the Royal Navy be asked to do more in the Pacific for longer, while also having to wait for gaps in its submarine capability to be filled? Kate and Mike are joined by former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe and senior defence researcher Sophia Gaston to assess the risks, the potential consequences, and how they could be avoided or at least mitigated.

Mike and Sian talk to Bernard Cornwell, creator of Napoleonic Wars Rifleman Richard Sharpe and Uhtred, the unforgettable hero of the Last Kingdom series. Bernard tells Sitrep about the 25th Sharpe novel, Sharpe’s Storm, his admiration for today’s armed forces and why he wouldn’t want to write about any modern day conflicts. He also reveals he’s writing a new book about Uhtred and lifts the lid on whether his latest book is the final ever Sharpe novel.(This podcast contains some strong language)

Three and a half years into Ukraine’s fight for survival against Russia, it has offered to freeze the front lines in return for peace talks. But Russia’s not biting, so Sitrep explains where those front lines are right now and where the military momentum is pressing hardest, to understand where the war might go next as winter approaches.Ukrainian journalist Roman Pahulych shares insights from his time with troops close to the front lines while John Foreman, former Defence Attaché to Kyiv, explains how new sanctions could still bite at Moscow’s military capabilities.