Fantasy For Real

Today’s episode of the podcast covers some NFL Leaderboards, dives into a discussion about Early Declare and Super Senior statuses, and then finishes with the Week 11 Discussion. As usual, I did not write up the NFL Notes, but I do have at least some brief observations about Early Declare and Super Senior status by position group. This is not meant to be a definitive study, more an observation about where the league is and recent trends. After that, as always, the Week 11 Preview which looks forward to some crucial 2026 QB match-ups. Early Declares and Super Seniors by PositionFor this an analysis, an Early Declare is anyone who leaves college the minimum 3 years after high school. A Super Senior is anyone who leaves college 5+ years after high school. To be clear, I don’t think the analysis is re-inventing the wheel in any way, shape, or form and much of this is probably self-evident to at least some people, but I would wager even some of those people might be shocked by the degree in some of these points. * This should surprise no one, but the QB position is the only position — particularly at the top — where being a Super Senior is not a detriment particularly relative to being an early declare in recent memory. Several elite QBs (Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix) are Super Seniors, and QB is the only position where choosing between the top three Early Declares and top three Super Seniors would be a debate; the top 3 Early Declares on KTC right now are Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, and Patrick Mahomes, so they still may have the edge here, but compare that to WR where the KTC rankings would make a similar comparison Ricky Pearsall, Jayden Reed, and Terry McLaurin v Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Justin Jefferson. * RB is the position where the TOP END is the most dominated by Early Declares. The top 6 RBs and 13 of the top 14 RBs are Early Declares (Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, Bucky Irving, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams). That said, the gap between simply being a senior and a super senior, at least in the moment, seems less extreme at RB compared to WR. James Cook is the other RB in the Top 14, and as a 4th Year player, he creates the biggest divide between Senior and Super Senior, but players like Chase Brown, Jaylen Warren, and before his injury Cam Skattebo are more highly valuable to their positions relative to the Seniors and compared to the WR position. * At WR, within the top 24, there is a 2/3 to 1/3 preference towards the Early Declares, with 8 Early Declare WRs in the top 12 and 16 Early Declare WRs in the top 24. Beyond that though, the most unique aspect of WRs in this analysis is the complete lack of players achieving significant success after becoming Super Seniors. Ricky Pearsall and Jayden Reed have had some relative success aside from injuries, but injuries are a relevant reality in the sport, and if they do not turn their careers around soon, the biggest 5th Year WR hit since Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel — both of whom are ~30 YO now — is probably Rashid Shaheed? Or perhaps still Jayden Reed even with the injuries. Since the podcast, Deebo has fallen out of the Top 50 and Shaheed has risen into the top 50, but essentially these 5 WRs are the 5 that rest near or above the fringe of WR50. That is a very small number of relevant players throughout the entire position. * As one additional note, among the 8 WRs who have Senior (not super) status in the Top 24 on KTC, four of these eight WRs (Egbuka, Odunze, DeVonta, Olave) had an excellent season with high draft status prior to returning for their four season. Two more of these WRs (Ladd & Puka) were heavily impacted by injuries throughout their collegiate careers. This is why, in my eyes, even the bar for a fourth year player at the WR position should be very high or have significant excuse as to why they were not able to become more successful earlier in their careers. My belief is that this is because WR is so skills driven that early skills development is still underrated in the scouting process. This is admittedly not the most optimistic analysis, and I did not spin it directly like this on the podcast, but there is a reason that I bring all these items up on a Show/Sub that slants to the NFL Draft: There’s some evidence that being an Early Declare for Dante Moore would be more enticing for teams to the extent that it might help him stay in the First Round relative to maybe a similar QB with a similar season who was a 4th Year player, but the fact that so many of those QBs being drafted as Early Declares are on the bottom of the top 20-28 QBs might suggest that for Dante Moore, if he wants to be a very good QB, staying at Oregon might be the most logical decision. And for Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, while at other positions returning for a 5th Year would be a detriment, there’s not necessarily anything obvious in the numbers right now — particularly if your goal is to be a very good QB — that suggests going back for a 5th Year is a bad idea. At RB, our top two don’t need discussed here, but particularly as Jonah Coleman may re-enter the RB2 conversation with the injury to Justice Haynes, this is just another sign that Coleman best abilities might lie in FLOOR and not CEILING. And at WR, luckily our top three are fine here — it is part of what makes them the top 3. Jordyn Tyson is the only senior, but he slides nicely into that category that also fits Egbuka, DeVonta, Odunze, and Olave. The concern is more as we get into the stages where Chris Bell, Germie Bernard, and even Denzel Boston are becoming first round picks that people are excited about. Boston scores okay compared to those players, but is a clear step down. Bell and Bernard are not particularly close. That doesn’t mean they can’t be very good WRs, but unless there is more well-rounded development, they are the two players right now where they seem like they may slip into my own 1st Round, but in most drafts I would not want to rank them with a Top 12 grade. Make sure to check out the Fantasy for Real podcast where I go over these games in preparation for Week 11.After a few weeks where the match-ups for the 2026 QBs were not quite as exciting, this weekend showcases many of our top QBs matched up in important games. The biggest match-up and Game of the Week features LSU & Garrett Nussmeier taking on Alabama & Ty Simpson, with Nussmeier in particular needing to take advantage of the limited opportunities he has left before the 2026 NFL Draft. Aside from this top game, both Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza find themselves against tricky defenses in road environments. This is another big opportunity week for the 2026 QB Class with plenty of other big games to look through as well. Friday Night LightsNorthwestern @ USC at 9:00 PM on FOXKey Players: Griffin Wilde, WR, Northwestern (2026) ; Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (2026) ; Makai Lemon, WR, USC (2026) ; Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, USC (2026)Not too much action late Friday night, but USC does have one of the most intriguing teams for the 2026 NFL Draft in particular. While the injury to Waymond Jordan and playing through injuries for Ja’Kobi Lane has limited some of the intrigue, this team still features two potential Day 2 or higher WRs including a top 3 WR in Makai Lemon. QB Jayden Maiava flirted with the First Round QB conversation, but right now seems to be firmly on the outside looking in after poor performances the last two weeks. This game is unlikely to get him back in the conversation, but it can get him on the right track for at least Day 2 moving forward. For Northwestern, Griffin Wilde remains an intriguing, productive player within College Football. A third year player in his first year in the Big Ten, Wilde is very likely the most important member of the Northwestern offense.Week 11 College Football GAMEDAY PreviewsGAME OF THE WEEKLSU @ Alabama at 7:30 PM on ABCKey Players: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (2026) ; Harlem Berry, RB, LSU (2028) ; Caden Durham, RB, LSU (2027) ; Aaron Anderson, WR, LSU (2026) ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU (2027) ; Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (2026) ; Jamarion Miller, RB, Alabama (2026) ; Daniel Hill, RB, Alabama (2027) ; Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama (2027) ; Lotzeir Brooks, WR, Alabama (2028) ; Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama (2026) ; Isaiah Horton, WR, Alabama (2026)Very likely the “Game of the Week” this week pits QBs Garrett Nussmeier and Ty Simpson against each other, each with the ability to raise their stock in the upcoming NFL Draft. For Nussmeier, a player without eligibility and a nearly nonexistent path to the CFB Playoff, this will be one of the last opportunities to make an impression. If Simpson wishes to enter the 2026 NFL Draft, that might be true for him as well, though Simpson will have more post-season opportunities most likely. Simpson has showcased excellent ability to play the QB position, but as someone with very few starts, Simpson is still an incomplete picture.These teams are also quite similar in how they have matched-up on Offense this year, with the exception of Simpson being able to execute in the difficult situations that Nussmeier has struggled in. But on the ground, both teams have struggled quite a bit this season. LSU has seemingly found something in RB Harlem Berry adding a bit more consistency on the ground the last couple of weeks, and between the true freshman and sophomore RB Caden Durham, LSU definitely has a very intriguing tandem on the ground. For Alabama, the most intriguing RB at this stage for NFL futures is probably 244-lb sophomore Daniel Hill. And while they are different shapes and sizes significantly, each team features some elite upside at pass-catching positions. Trey’Dez Green of LSU has been a match-up nightmare on paper for his entire career, but the last three games have begun to bring that theory into reality. He is curr

Today's FFR covers the Risers, Fallers, and 2-Round 1QB Weekly Mock Draft after Weeks 9 & 10 of the CFB Season. Last week had the 2026 Big Board and 2027 First Pass, but now the Risers return.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Risers Begin -- 2:10 || QB Risers of the Week -- 2:45 || WR Riser of the Week -- 10:15 || TE Riser of the Week -- 13:45 || QB Faller of the Week -- 15:15 || RB Faller of the Week -- 18:15 || RB Future Riser of the Week -- 26:30 || WR Future Riser of the Week -- 35:00 || Weekly Notes Begin / Friday Night Review -- 40:30 || QB Notes (Sellers, Mateer, Sayin, Raiola) -- 43:45 || Additional Risers Notes (RB/WR) -- 59:30 || TE Notes -- 83:45 || Mock Draft -- 90:00 || Mock Begins -- 93:00 || Round 2 -- 103:45 || Mock Recap: 112:30 || Endnotes -- ~115:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's show features a look even further into the future than normal, focusing in on the sophomores / 2nd year players around College Football. + as always the Weekly College Football preview.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || 2026 First Pass Review -- 2:45 || Raw #s 2026 versus 2027 -- 9:15 || Brief Positional Overviews (2027) -- 16:00 || QB Player Notes -- 22:15 || RB Player Notes -- 37:30 || WR Player Notes pt. 1 (Top 6) -- 56:30 || WR Player Notes pt. 2 (WR7+) -- 79:45 || Trey'Dez Green -- 94:45 || Week 10 Preview -- 96:15 || Endnotes -- 120:15 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

It is Big Board Week! 12 QBs, 19 RBs, 24 WRs, and 9 TEs discussed/ranked. Not only do I have my 2026 Big Board today, but I am in the process of preparing my 2027 First Pass for Thursday.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Big Board Open -- 1:20 || 2026 QB Overview -- 2:30 || 2026 RB Overview -- 5:30 || 2026 WR Overview -- 7:45 || 2026 TE Overview -- 12:45 || Big Board Begins / TIER 1 -- 14:45 || TIER 2 -- 22:45 || TIER 3 (PART 1) -- 38:15 || TIER 3 (PART 2 Beginning w/ Sellers) -- 49:30 || TIERS 4 & 5 -- 65:15 || TIERS 6 & 7 -- 69:00 || End Notes -- 88:30 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Packed episode of the show today as on top of my NFL Notes and Week 9 CFB Preview, today's show will break down Drew Allar for the first "Deeper Dive" of the 2026 Class + a 2025 Big Board ReviewTIMELINE || NFL Notes (QB) -- 2:30 || NFL Notes (RB) -- 7:15 || NFL Notes (WR) -- 12:00 || NFL Notes (TE) -- 17:30 || Deeper Dives Preview -- 25:00 || Drew Allar Deeper Dive -- 30:30 || Review of 2025 Big Board -- 44:00 || Weekly Previews Big Games -- 55:30 || Other Games -- 64:45 || End Notes -- 88:45 || Overview of TE Production -- 94:45 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

New Risers, Fallers, and Weekly Mock Draft after Week 8, covering the ND RB Room, Carnell Tate, another poor week for Sellers, as well as diving into future notes and doing a 2026 2-RD SF Rookie Mock.TIMELINE || Risers Intro -- 2:00 || RB Risers -- 6:00 || WR Risers -- 14:15 || Fallers QB -- 20:30 || Fallers RB -- 33:00 || Future Risers -- 40:30 || Weekly Notes || Friday Night Reactions -- 49:30 || Oregon Bounceback -- 60:00 || Re-Assessing Maiava -- 69:00 || Additional Risers -- 72:15 || Future Notes -- 79:00 || Weekly Mock Draft -- 96:30 || Mock Draft Recap -- 117:00 || Endnotes -- 118:30 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's Thursday show features the standard NFL Notes as well as a preview of a deep roster of games for this upcoming week in College Football. Additionally, I take a look at QB Breakouts this decade.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || NFL QB Notes -- 2:30 || NFL Buy/Sell -- 7:45 || Breakout QBs in the 2020s -- 13:40 || WEEKLY PREVIEWS || Friday Night Lights -- 37:50 || Game of the Week -- 47:15 || Next 3 Games -- 53:15 || Other Games to Watch -- 70:00 || "Don't Sleep on it" Game of the Week -- 81:40 || Endnotes -- 91:35 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

An epic Week 7 didn't quite go as planned for some of the biggest names in the 2026 NFL Draft, but that just makes this week's Risers even more important. My voice is a bit off in this one (Go IU). I was initially unsure if I would be able to do the show or a full length show, but as I started getting going it wasn't quite as bad as I was expecting. TIMELINE || Week 7 Risers -- 1:30 || QBs -- 2:30 || RBs -- 13:35 || WRs -- 15:35 || TEs -- 22:10 || Fallers -- 25:00 || QBs -- 26:15 || RBs -- 44:30 || TEs -- 52:00 || Future Risers -- 56:45 || QBs -- 57:00 || RBs -- 61:00 || WRs -- 62:50 || TEs -- 67:30 || Friday Night Notes -- 69:00 || Drew Allar -- 75:55 || Other Risers -- 78:45 || Future Risers + Underclass Notes -- 84:00 || Mock Draft -- 96:00 || Endnotes +Expectations for Maiava -- 108:30 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's FFR briefly dives into my NFL Notes for the week, and then discusses all of the upcoming action in a loaded Week 7 for College Football, including massive match-ups at the QB position.TIMELINE || NFL Notes QB -- 2:00 || RB -- 11:45 || WR -- 21:00 || TE -- 27:30 || Game Previews -- 29:55 || Friday Night Lights -- 30:00 || Big QB Match-Ups -- 33:45 || Big Games -- 44:15 || Red River + Other Games -- 66:00 || Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Back to Risers, Fallers, and a 1QB Mock Draft. This show covers the previous two weeks of CFB with the biggest QB/WR Risers, updates with brief notes on the 2027 Class, and of course the weekly Mock.TIMELINE || Risers -- 1:40 || Riser of the Week -- 2:30 || QB Risers -- 9:00 || WR Risers -- 22:30 || Fallers -- 38:45 || Future Risers -- 48:00 || Notes + Additional Risers -- 58:45 || 2027 Class Updates -- 70:20 || 2028 RBs -- 91:00 || 1QB Mock Draft -- 96:00 || Endnotes -- 108:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's episode of the Fantasy for Real podcast features the standard Weekly Game Previews for the upcoming week in College Football, and also dives into the remaining schedules for prominent 2026 QBsTIMELINE || Brief NFL Notes -- 3:10 || 2026 QB ROS Outlook -- 17:50 || Week 6 CFB Schedule -- 38:45 || Tier 2 Games -- 46:00 || Other Games -- 55:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

It is time to update some Rankings! This is really the first time sitting down with the 2026 Class exclusively since Early May, so it is time to see what all has changed in that time period. TIMELINE ||QBs -- 2:10 || Tier 1 -- 10:00 || Tier 2 -- 38:30 || Tier 3 -- 43:30 || Honorable Mentions -- 51:15 ||RBs -- 53:45 || Tier 1 / Love -- 55:00 || Tier 2 -- 58:45 || Tier 3 -- 70:30 || Honorable Mentions -- 78:00 || WRs -- 80:45 || Tier 1 -- 86:45 || Tier 2 -- 91:00 || Tier 3 -- 106:45 || Gadgets, Athletes, & Mentions -- 123:30 ||TEs -- 133:00 || Endnotes -- 143:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's show dives into my post-Week 5 Rankings from the previous two seasons prior to the same rankings release on Tuesday. Very long show today including my NFL Notes and Big Game Previews.TIMELINE || Mateer -- 2:05 ||NFL Notes -- 9:40 || QBs -- 10:30 || RBs -- 21:30 || WRs -- 32:45 || TEs -- 44:00 || Rankings Review -- 47:15 || 2024 QBs -- 48:15 || 2024 RBs -- 53:45 || 2024 WRs -- 59:00 || 2024 TEs -- 66:30 || 2025 QBs -- 69:00 || 2025 RBs -- 73:00 || 2025 WRs -- 79:00 || 2025 TEs -- 84:00 || Week 5 -- 88:30 || Friday -- 89:15 || Game of the Week -- 90:45 || Game #2 of the Week -- 99:30 || Other Big Games -- 107:30 || Other Games -- 120:45 || End Notes -- 131:30 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Today's Risers, Fallers, and Weekly Mock Draft will take a step back and look not only at Week 4, but at the biggest Risers so far in 2025. Plus, for the 1st time, the Weekly Mock Draft goes 2 Rounds.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Risers -- 2:35 || QB Riser of the Year -- 3:00 || RB Riser of the Year -- 19:00 || WR Riser of the Year -- 26:30 || Additional Week 4 Risers -- 37:00 || Future Risers -- 42:00 || Fallers of the Year -- 55:25 || Weekly Notes -- 63:15 || 2024/2023 HS WRs -- 83:15 || Mock Draft -- 92:00 || Endnotes (Illinois/USC Spread Correction + Closing Thoughts) -- 109:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

On today's episode of the FFR podcast, I touch on my news and notes across the NFL after Week 2. Additionally, the show highlights the games to look forward to in the upcoming week of College Football. TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Intro Ends -- 1:25 || QBs (Maye, Darnold, Williams, Young, McCarthy) -- 2:00 || RBs (Cook + Rookie RBs) -- 22:40 || WRs (Odunze, TMac, Franklin, Ayomanor) -- 36:50 || TEs (KRAFT TIME) -- 47:25 || Week 4 Best Games in CFB -- 51:15 || Other Games -- 62:20 || Endnotes -- 79:15 || Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

This Tuesday's FFR highlights rising WRs and falling QBs for the 2026 NFL Draft. Aside from covering the most important Week 3 performances, today's show also features the 2nd SF Rookie Mock this year. TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Risers Begins -- 2:10 || 2026 WR Risers -- 4:45 || Future Risers -- 20:15 || 2026 Fallers -- 36:45 || Injuries -- 47:00 || 2026 QB Notes -- 53:30 || Other Notes -- 66:45 || SF Mock #2 -- 81:30 || Endnotes + Closing Thoughts on the 2026 and 2027 NFL Draft Classes -- 89:45 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

There is finally NFL football to talk about! Today's show features a full rundown of my reactions to Week 1 of the NFL Season + highlights the Key Players to watch in Week 3 of the CFB SeasonTIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || 5 Takes Looking Good -- 2:15 || 5 Takes Looking Bad -- 15:30 || AFC North Notes -- 24:00 || AFC South Notes -- 29:10 || AFC East Notes -- 35:00 || AFC West Notes -- 44:20 || NFC North Notes -- 51:00 || NFC South Notes -- 61:50 || NFC East Notes -- 66:30 || NFC West Notes -- 72:45 || Waivers -- 76:00 || COLLEGE FOOTBALL || Game of the Week -- 81:00 || Runner-Up for GOTW -- 89:00 || Next Tier Games -- 96:30 || Endnotes + Jonah Coleman & Future Show Schedule -- 112:25 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

On today's show, I discuss the fallout from Week 2 in CFB including the big game between Michigan and Oklahoma. Plus, it's time for another weekly mock draft with my first 1QB Mock of the seasonTIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Risers (2026) -- 2:15 || Future Risers -- 23:45 || Fallers -- 37:05 || Weekly Notes -- 55:45 || Mock Draft -- 67:40 || Endnotes + Thursday CFB Preview -- 79:45 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

With no NFL News or Games to cover as of yet, today's edition of the Fantasy for Real features primarily the weekly preview for Week 2 of the CFB season, which most prominently features Mich @ OklaTIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Week 2 Preview: Michigan @ Oklahoma -- 2:00 || Next Two Games -- 16:15 || Other Games -- 23:00 || EndNotes -- 37:15 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe

Football is BACK! Reactions to the 1st Week of the CFB Season including a disappointing performance by Arch Manning + the first 2026 Rookie Mock Draft of the Season.TIMELINE || Intro -- 0:00 || Risers/Fallers -- 3:00 || 2026 WR/RB/TE Risers -- 5:15 || Future (2027+) Risers -- 28:55 || Week 1 Fallers -- 50:15 || SF Mock Draft 1.0 -- 68:45 || Endnotes -- 89:00 Get full access to C.J.’s Substack at cjfreel.substack.com/subscribe