Israel Update

Israel put its faith in building a small, Star Wars style, technological army. But that army was defeated on Oct. 7, by a Mad Max ragtag band of terrorists. Mike and Gadi discuss the failure of the IDF to adapt to this new Mad Max world. But in light of President Biden's threat to withhold weapons, Israel must not only change its military thinking, it also has to reform its war economics if it is to achieve what Mike and Can Kasapoglu call in a new piece in Tablet, "operational sovereignty."  Also in this episode: has Joe Biden taken his anti-Israeli policy one step too far?

The international media – like much of the Never-Bibi Israeli media – told you a story about Hamas greenlighting a hostage deal, only to have their new position met with an Israeli incursion into Rafah. What actually happened is very far from that media tale. The US and Hamas have been negotiating over Israel's head, with the American making promises Israel can't afford to keep. When Prime Minister Netanyahu understood what was going on, he moved to intercept the dangerous move. Here's what happened behind the scenes. Mike and Gadi explain.  Also: what you need to know about how tough politicians conduct policy, and what they can learn from the bouncers in Tel-Aviv's roughest bars.

The Biden administration is pressing for an end to the war in a hostage deal, while working to topple Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has many allies and tools in this effort: the threat to sanction an IDF unit, the looming specter of international arrest warrants from the Hague, the Israeli anti-Netanyahu press and, from within the cabinet, an attempt by Benny Gantz to push for accepting a near-surrender hostage deal. At the same time, the right flank of Netanyahu's coalition has issued an ultimatum: should such a deal come to pass they will opt out and topple the coalition. Has Netanyahu reached the end of his rope?

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.

Last Thursday, President Biden had a very tense conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding among other things, that the Israelis provide more humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians, and take concrete steps to achieve an immediate ceasefire, including by sending an empowered delegation to Cairo to negotiate a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Hamas. Several days later, the Israeli delegation appeared in Cairo to negotiate and, at the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced the withdrawal of all of their maneuver forces from the Gaza Strip. Many observers speculate that the withdrawal came in response to American pressure. Israeli officials deny that claim, and Netanyahu has promised that an operation to take Rafah will definitely take place — but will it? Mike and Gadi — like everyone else — don't have clear answers to the question, but they have a number of thoughtful considerations about it.

The protest against Netanyahu is reaching a dangerous new level of violence, with a recent attempt to break through the barriers protecting his family’s private residence. Ronen Bar, the director of Israel’s security service, the Shabak, has warned that the protest is spilling over into the danger zone. Mike and Gadi can’t help but wonder, though, why is anyone not charged with a crime here, and how many would have been charged if violent right-wing protesters tried to breach security around a left-wing politician’s home. Plus: the strike that killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander has increased the danger of regional escalation to a level not seen yet since the beginning of the war.

The crisis in relations between Washington and Jerusalem intensified this week, when the Biden Administration refrained from vetoing the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Although mainstream Israeli columnists, habitual critics of Prime Minister Netanyahu, reflexively blame him for the crisis, it is increasingly clear that the Biden administration opposes the military strategy in Gaza that most Israelis support. Gadi and Mike discuss the contradictory implications of the American policy. On the one hand, the crisis with Washington unites the country behind Netanyahu, but, on the other, it exacerbates domestic political controversies, such as the disagreements over a proposed law to draft ultra-orthodox men into the military. As Netanyahu navigates these treacherous crosscurrents, he faces what is perhaps the most perilous moment in his long career. Check out all of Tablet’s podcasts at tabletmag.com/podcasts.

The ever more explicit attempts by the Democrats to remove Netanyahu from office repeatedly fail. There's a reason for that. Israelis don't like to feel that their bigger stronger ally is trying to dictate to them who will govern their country. They are even less hospitable to the idea that the US will try to force them into the two-state solution track. But Mike thinks the ongoing effort to oust Netanyahu may actually succeed. Meanwhile, Herzi Halevi, the IDF chief of staff completes a controversial army-wide round of appointments. Many see this as an attempt to save his own skin, since the appointees seem to subscribe to the same group-think that got us October 7, and may therefore be less critical of Halevi's colossal failure on that fateful Shabbat. Check out all of Tablet’s podcasts at tabletmag.com/podcasts.

After discussing the growing tensions between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Gadi describes for Mike two research reports in Israel in which Palestinian officials brag about the numbers of their security personnel who participate in terror attacks against Israeli Jews. Still there are some veterans of Israel's security establishment who agree with the Biden administration's plan to hand Gaza over to a "reformed and revitalized" Palestinian Authority once the war ends. One such veteran is former Shin Bet (Shabak) chief Nadav Argaman, who recently said, "The Palestinian Authority is not a body that encourages terrorism." Gadi and Mike believe Argaman belongs to that segment of Israel's elite which, in sharp contrast to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sees getting along with Washington as more important than reflecting the will of the Israeli people, who overwhelmingly reject the Palestinian Authority as a partner for stabilizing Gaza.