Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.👉 Visit Isaac's web site, or follow him on X, @IBKardon👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn’t Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.​A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.​The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.​Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.​Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.​The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.​Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.​Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.​War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.​👉 Follow David Kang on X, @DaveCKang👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture.Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage.Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks.Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings.Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two.Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances.👉 Follow Hanako on X, @HanakoMontgome1👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, acclaimed Filipino filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her documentary, "Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea"—a film Beijing tried repeatedly to block inside the Philippines and internationally. Villarama shares her perspective on the struggle of Filipino fisherfolk and defenders facing intimidation on the region’s contested waters, and how their experience holds urgent lessons for food security, truth, and sovereignty across the Indo-Pacific.A story bigger than borders: Villarama frames the West Philippine Sea not merely as a local dispute, but as a global issue involving food security and human dignity—where what happens to Filipino fishermen and their defenders ripples far beyond the region.Courage and resistance on the water: Her documentary spotlights Arnel Satam, whose David-versus-Goliath confrontations with China’s bullying paramilitary vessels epitomize the bravery and resolve of ordinary Filipinos under threat.Suppressed but not silenced: Repeated efforts to ban and discredit the documentary—in Manila and abroad—reflect real-world campaigns to silence stories that threaten powerful interests, but these actions have also served to attract even more attention and support.Funding and independence: Villarama explains how her team navigated the challenges of independent filmmaking in the Philippines, relying on grassroots backing and remaining free from government support, thus reinforcing the film’s authenticity and local perspective.Solidarity and the Streisand effect: She notes that pushback from China and “silent treatment” at home only amplified interest; acts of censorship drew more eyes and allies.Beyond politics—human connections: Villarama emphasizes that the heart of the story is about protecting livelihoods, identity, and the truth itself. She advocates seeing the sea as something that connects, not divides, and urges mutual respect between neighbors.Military and daily life on the edge: The film, as described by Villarama, captures the harsh realities of Filipino military postings on remote outposts, documenting both logistical struggles and profound patriotism that contrasts sharply with China's well-supported installations.Expanding the narrative: Despite obstacles, Villarama shares that “Food Delivery” has screened at over 80 venues, launched an Oscar campaign, and plans to continue sharing the fisherfolk's story worldwide—inviting communities everywhere to reflect on their own fight for truth and home.Takeaway message for global audiences: According to Villarama, defending truth and dignity is everyone’s responsibility: when one story is lost, the world’s humanity is diminished. She calls on viewers to see themselves in the struggle and to protect our “one sea, one world” for the sake of all.👉 For screening details, follow “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea” on Facebook and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Veteran journalist Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack how China’s economic rise is remaking alliances and perceptions throughout the Global South, and assesses the real stakes for prosperity and stability as competition intensifies.China is setting new international standards: As U.S. influence recedes, China’s growing economic power is shifting global norms in technology, governance, and more.Global South nations seek stability, not ideology: According to Olander, most countries in the region prioritize practical gains and development models, finding appeal in China’s modernization without Westernization.Leadership contested: China, India, and Indonesia are among the Indo-Pacific’s competitors for influence as champions of the Global South, but no single country truly “leads”; instead, nations want self-determined prosperity.Concerns about Chinese power are real but muted: Territorial disputes matter, but most regional players hedge by forging new partnerships—like Japan and the Philippines—while doubting U.S. reliability.The “debt trap myth”: Olander believes Chinese lending is generally profit-driven, not a conspiracy to seize strategic assets; governance failures, not Chinese ambition, explain crises like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.China’s economic model is both a boon and a barrier: While cheap Chinese exports drive growth, they also make it harder for poorer countries to move up the value chain.Digital and surveillance technology goes global: Olander says that China exports electronic surveillance tools widely, but so do other nations; countries choose models that fit their own priorities around sovereignty and economic development.Rivalries today differ from the Cold War: The U.S.–China competition is less binary than the U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the past, with most Global South leaders aiming for balanced relationships rather than forced choices.Latin America’s ties with China are deepening: Resources, markets, and political influence flow in both directions, shaping the region and U.S. trade policy.Olander’s unique view is that, beyond power politics or ideology, China’s appeal in the Global South rests on its ability to deliver tangible improvements without imposing its values. He highlights how these countries view great power engagement not as a zero-sum rivalry, but as an opportunity to chart their own paths to modernization and stability.👉 Follow Eric Olander on LinkedIn or X, @eric_olander, or visit the China Global South Project. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

North Korean defector and human rights advocate Timothy Cho joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso for a deeply personal account of his life in and escape from North Korea. He recounts his childhood poverty, four imprisonments, harrowing escape, and ultimate rescue that finally brought him to freedom. His story reveals North Korea's total information control, systemic persecution, and brutal detention conditions, while also highlighting the power of compassion, civil society, and diplomacy to intervene.Total information blackout: North Korea remains the only country without internet, cross-border communication, or social media—25 million people completely isolated from the outside world.Childhood indoctrination and famine: Timothy grew up worshiping the Kim family from infancy. His parents fled the country during the starvation that swept the country in the 1990s, which led him to being labeled "enemy class" for their defection.First escape and capture: After crossing the river into China, Timothy experienced shock at the open markets and fashionable clothes he saw there. However, he fled in terror from Christian missionaries who wanted to help, as he had absorbed many years of propaganda that painted religion as barbaric.Prison hell: After he was arrested at the Mongolian border, Timothy was sent to North Korean detention cells so overcrowded that detainees couldn't lie down. He witnessed death, torture, forced abortions, and other traumas that left him deeply scarred.Second crossing: Assisted by his grandmother to escape a second time, he was wrapped in plastic for another river crossing into China, where he found unexpected help from strangers.Rescue: After a 13-year-old student's email sparked international media coverage of the plight of North Korean refugees, public protests and diplomatic pressure led China to deport Timothy and eight others to the Philippines.Today's advocacy: Today Timothy serves as Secretariat of the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, speaking at the UN and urging sustained attention to the "voiceless" millions under DPRK repression.North Korea's unique isolation underpins mass repression through complete information control. The regime punishes families of defectors, while detention is often lethal by design. However, civil society and diplomatic action can save lives—one student's message triggered multilateral intervention. Of 34,000 estimated escapees, most remain fearfully silent to protect themselves and loved ones still inside.👉 Follow Timothy Cho on LinkedIn and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn

In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions.Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily.Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation.While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base.China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds.Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials.Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills.👉 Follow the “China Boss” Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn or on her Substack👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this special, in-person episode, host Ray Powell sits down with James Minnich, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and editor of the Center’s new book Edge of Competition: Disruption, Division, and Competition in the Indo-Pacific. Recorded in APCSS’ studios in Hawaii, they dive deep into the region's most pressing geopolitical challenges, exploring how disruption, division, and competition are reshaping global security and economics.James shares insights from the book, highlighting why the Indo-Pacific matters to everyone—from Taiwan Strait tensions and South China Sea disputes to the rise of multipolar dynamics involving China, the US, India, and ASEAN. They discuss whether we’ve reached "peak China," globalization's double-edged sword, ASEAN centrality, spheres of influence and the need for narrative warfare to counter malign influence operations. Plus, James recounts a story from his time at the UN Command Military Armistice Commission in South Korea, blending negotiation tactics with real-world security operations.Whether you're tracking US-China relations, maritime security in East Asia, or broader Indo-Pacific geopolitics, this episode unpacks the ongoing disruptions that are already impacting global trade, technology, and stability. Don't miss this expert analysis on Taiwan, Korean Peninsula security, and strategies for resilience in a competitive world.Key Topics Covered:Disruption in the Indo-Pacific: Peak China debates, Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, and globalization's risks.Division and Multipolarity: India's role, ASEAN communities of interest, and the pitfalls of spheres of influence.South China Sea escalations, South Korea's strategic clarity, and commanding the narrative against political warfare.Mastering the clock, weaponizing resilience, and proactive information strategies.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this thought-provoking episode, we're joined by renowned Silicon Valley entrepreneur and defense reform advocate Steve Blank in a sweeping conversation on Pentagon innovation, the U.S.-China technological rivalry, and what it takes for democracies to outpace authoritarian competitors.Key Highlights & Takeaways:Diagnosing U.S. Innovation Stagnation: Steve dissects why the once dominant U.S. defense sector, long-dominated by the big “primes”, got overtaken by bureaucratic inertia—contrasted with China’s highly focused whole-of-nation approach. He examines how factors such as lobbying, revolving doors, and outmoded acquisition systems have played their parts in hampering adaptation to new threats.Hacking for Defense Origins: Steve unpacks how the “get out of the building” lean startup method moved from Silicon Valley to challenging national security problem-solving, birthing the global Hacking for Defense movement that started at Stanford but is now in dozens of universities worldwide.From “Innovation Theater” to Outcomes: The conversation critiques the proliferation of “incubators” unconnected to real acquisition, and highlights how meaningful reform only comes when new tech is linked to actual defense deployment.What’s Changing: Blank describes major reforms currently underway under the new Trump Administration: scrapping legacy acquisition hurdles, empowering innovation-focused leadership, expanding the Defense Innovation Unit, and setting new strategic priorities.Politics and Semiconductors: Steve provides a unique take on the CHIPS Act, Taiwan’s semiconductor leverage, and the evolution of U.S. “industrial policy” as exemplified by the U.S. government’s taking of a direct stake in the Intel Corporation.Practical Advice: Steve and the hosts help surface actionable lessons: embrace private-sector speed, connect innovation directly to field outcomes, and learn from adversaries who now copy America’s best ideas and occasionally outpace them.SeaLight Targeted by Beijing: Steve and Ray banter about how Ray’s innovation project inspired by Hacking for Defense blossomed into the SeaLight phenomenon, and how its success in illuminating China’s “gray zone” activities got both of them targeted by Beijing’s propaganda machine.This essential episode illuminates how democracies can survive and thrive amid global tech rivalry, and what must change if the U.S. hopes to remain a leader in security and defense innovation.👉 Follow Steve Blank at his website👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this critical episode, host Jim Carouso welcomes two leading experts on the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement to examine whether the landmark trilateral security partnership can deliver on its promises four years after its launch. Charlie Edel, inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Abe Denmark, senior fellow at CSIS and a former DOD official who helped implement AUKUS, join to discuss their new report, "The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence."The conversation dives deep into five fundamental challenges threatening AUKUS’ success:• Submarine production bottlenecks plague the U.S. industrial base, with maintenance backlogs keeping 25% of attack submarines out of the water. • Sovereignty questions have emerged as Washington reportedly seeks Australian operational commitments for future contingencies. • Australia faces the massive challenge of building a nuclear submarine workforce from scratch—requiring 20,000 new skilled workers in a country with virtually no civilian nuclear industry.• AUKUS “Pillar 2” technology cooperation lacks focus and marquee deliverables despite bureaucratic progress on export controls and information sharing.•⁠⁠ Timeline pressures mount as critics question whether AUKUS capabilities will arrive too late for current deterrence needs, with Australian submarine construction not beginning until 2040.The experts propose concrete solutions: appointing AUKUS special representatives reporting directly to leaders in all three countries; creating an AUKUS visa system for seamless researcher mobility; establishing trilateral congressional oversight mechanisms; producing annual progress reports for transparency and accountability; and concentrating Pillar 2 efforts on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated missile defense rather than spreading resources across quantum computing and other emerging technologies that lawmakers struggle to understand.Denmark emphasizes that AUKUS should be viewed as additive rather than subtractive to existing capabilities, with Australian maintenance facilities and industrial contributions helping get more U.S. submarines operational faster. The discussion also touches on recent diplomatic engagements, including Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles' meetings in Washington amid ongoing U.S. reviews of the partnership.Both experts stress that while AUKUS faces significant implementation challenges, failure would damage U.S. credibility, weaken deterrence, and embolden adversaries. Success requires immediate course corrections, increased funding, and sustained political commitment across all three democracies to deliver meaningful capabilities for Indo-Pacific security.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In the milestone 100th episode of "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?", co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso celebrate their podcast’s century mark with a fast-paced, insightful, and at times humorous look back at some of their most memorable moments, guests, and listener interactions. Without a guest this week, Ray and Jim turn the spotlight on themselves, their audience, their incredible slate of past guests, and a region that keeps changing the strategic map.The hosts set the tone for a reflective and dynamic show, diving into listener emails and social media comments that illustrate the podcast’s loyal following from locations across the globe. Ray and Jim revisit some of the most interesting, provocative, quirky and timely lines from prior guests--including former US National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, U.S. Pacific Air Forces Commander General Kevin Schneider, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, President Surangel Whipps of Palau, former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Phil Davidson, and sitting Philippine Secretary of Defense Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro--challenging each other to recall who said what and why those remarks matter in today’s Indo-Pacific landscape.A central theme is the evolving nature of U.S. strategy, from discussions of "spheres of influence" and the shift in national security focus to debates over U.S. credibility and engagement in regions beyond the Indo-Pacific. The hosts analyze how once-standard priorities such as the rules-based order and extended U.S. presence are now questioned domestically and abroad. Listener comments prompt discussion of perceptions of America across the region, concerns over interference, and the shifting balance of great power influence. The episode highlights President Whipps’ steadfast support for Taiwan in the face of Chinese economic inducements--a striking example of Indo-Pacific agency and risk-taking in the current geopolitical climate.Memorable moments include insights from Secretary Teodoro on the critical role of the rules-based order for smaller states, self-deprecating tales of military karaoke anxiety from General Schneider, and a glancing critique of U.S. foreign policy “whiplash,” recalling both Afghanistan and Vietnam withdrawals. The podcast’s ability to draw high-profile guests and engage in candid, sometimes irreverent dialogue is evident as the hosts reminisce. Woven through the humor and storytelling is a serious undercurrent about U.S. credibility, PRC aggression, alliance management, and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific in global affairs.The hosts close with tributes to listeners, their inimitable producer, Ian Ellis-Jones, and their gratitude for reaching 100 episodes amidst rapidly growing listenership--now surpassing 40,000 subscribers across all platforms. As always, we encourage feedback and celebrate our incredible audience, and promise to continue featuring the perspectives and stories that matter most to Indo-Pacific watchers.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, LinkedIn, or check out his work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this compelling episode, co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome lead global security analyst for Washington Post Intelligence Josh Rogin, who explores the escalating tensions and complexities behind the dramatic recent breakdown in U.S.-India relations. The episode zeroes in on the significant diplomatic and very personal rift that has emerged between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, and unpacks the broader strategic implications for Indo-Pacific stability.Rogin gives a reporter’s analysis of the core issues driving the U.S.-India split, including Prime Minister Modi’s recent trip to Beijing for meetings with some of America’s biggest rivals. This shift signals India’s resistance to U.S. pressure for a trade deal it deems unfavorable. Despite Modi’s previous close rapport with President Trump, contentious issues—such as Trump’s tariff threats and bold proclamations about his role in India's recent conflict with Pakistan—have frozen negotiations and strained bilateral ties to the breaking point.The discussion highlights the internal U.S. political dynamics behind the breakdown, pointing out the absence of India experts in the president’s inner circle and the dominance of transactional diplomacy focused on short-term deals rather than sustained strategic partnerships. Rogin emphasizes that the rupture is deeply personal between Trump and Modi, with consequences extending beyond bilateral relations to affect the entire Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape.Listeners gain valuable insights into how tariff policies, trade conflicts, and diplomatic miscommunications have undermined 25 years of efforts to integrate India more closely with Western alliances. The episode also examines how this strain jeopardizes multilateral cooperation frameworks like the Quad, complicating efforts to present a united front against China’s growing influence in the region.The hosts take advantage of Josh’s long experience covering Japan to explore Tokyo’s leadership challenges in sustaining regional cooperation within the Quad framework and balancing domestic political pressures with larger strategic goals.This episode delivers a nuanced and timely examination of why the U.S.-India relationship is vital for Indo-Pacific security, trade, and diplomacy—the potential unraveling of which could have profound global repercussions. Ideal for policy experts, business leaders, and anyone interested in international relations, this episode offers a thoughtful analysis of the personal, political, and strategic forces shaping the future of U.S.-India ties and the broader Indo-Pacific region.Tune in for an engaging conversation that unpacks the personal disputes and political complexities defining one of the most critical alliances of the 21st century.👉 Follow Josh Rogin on X, @joshrogin, or on LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this deep-dive episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Matthew Zolnowski, former Special Advisor at the U.S. Department of Defense and President of Greyfriars LLC, for an expert exploration of critical minerals and rare earth elements in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition. As tensions escalate in the Indo-Pacific, they examine why these "rocks" are essential building blocks for both military weapon systems and the civilian economy.Critical Minerals vs. Rare Earths: Understanding the DifferenceMatt breaks down the distinction between critical minerals (50+ commodities spanning the periodic table from antimony to zirconium) and rare earth elements (those mysterious bottom rows of the periodic table you never had to learn). He explains China's dominant position in heavy rare earth processing, particularly for permanent magnets used in defense applications, while noting that light rare earths like cerium and lanthanum—used in petroleum refining and glass polishing—remain more accessible from domestic sources like California's Mountain Pass mine.Stockpiling, Strategy, and Supply Chain VulnerabilitiesThe discussion reveals concerning gaps in U.S. defense procurement, including how electronic components bypass normal sourcing requirements, allowing Chinese rare earth magnets into submarines through hard drives, while direct magnet purchases require allied sourcing. Zolnowski details the $2 billion stockpile expansion and explains how stockpiles "buy time" rather than widgets—bridging the gap between crisis onset and Defense Production Act responses.Industrial Policy vs. Market ForcesRay and Jim probe the tension between America's traditional free-market approach and emerging industrial policy, examining deals like the MP Materials contract with its $150 million heavy rare earth separation line and EBITDA guarantees. Matt argues this represents uncharted territory, fundamentally breaking with traditional government-industry relationships as the U.S. grapples with China's strategic dominance in processing and price manipulation.Australia, Allies, and Alternative StrategiesThe hosts explore why U.S.-Australia collaboration on critical minerals has remained limited despite Australia's "periodic table on a plate" capabilities, with Zolnowski noting regulatory barriers that only recently opened Defense Production Act eligibility to Australian companies. He advocates for commodity-specific strategies rather than broad critical minerals policies, suggesting successful models like heavy mineral sands operations that diversify beyond single-commodity dependence.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In this urgent bonus episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso return to discuss the sharp re-escalation at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea following the highly publicized Chinese naval collision at Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. Drawing from satellite imagery, open-source information, and media reports, they analyze China’s deployment of an armed maritime “swarm” near the BRP Sierra Madre, including coast guard cutters, maritime militia vessels, and rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs) equipped with mounted weapons.China’s Escalation and Swarming TacticsRay details how, just a day after the collision, China shifted significant assets from Mischief Reef to Second Thomas Shoal, amassing a force that now includes coast guard ships, maritime militia vessels, and armed RHIBs maneuvering alarmingly close to the Philippine military outpost. This “swarming” not only serves as a physical blockade but also as psychological intimidation through water cannon drills and propaganda operations.Historical and Strategic ContextThe BRP Sierra Madre has symbolized Philippine sovereignty at the shoal since being deliberately grounded in 1999, which lies within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. Despite China’s extensive militarization of neighboring Mischief Reef and other features, they have yet to dislodge this single ship—a continuous thorn in Beijing’s nine-dash line claims and a longtime flashpoint for maritime confrontation.Provocation, Deterrence, and International ImplicationsJim and Ray explore the strategic calculus behind China’s move, interpreting it as a probe aimed at provoking a Philippine misstep to justify more forceful measures, such as seizure or siege of the outpost. Philippine forces remain strictly instructed to exercise restraint, aware of the potentially explosive consequences. The episode places these events within a broader geopolitical framework, including rising tensions in U.S.-Taiwan relations, the recent Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage, and emerging uncertainties in U.S. alliances across Asia.What’s Next: Risks and ResponsesThe hosts weigh the possibility of China demanding new concessions to allow future Philippine resupply missions, emphasizing that a full siege would be catastrophic and globally indefensible. Given the rusted state of the Sierra Madre and its irreplaceable symbolic value, any disruption to resupply could be a tipping point. They also assess the credibility of U.S. treaty commitments and freedom of navigation operations as signals of deterrence or escalation.Anecdote on Summit DiplomacyOn a lighter note, Ray offers a “there I was” story from President Obama’s 2016 visit to Vietnam, where a meticulously planned official lunch was upended for an impromptu meal with Anthony Bourdain, which became the headline for the visit.Why Listen?A definitive update and expert analysis on the mounting crisis in the South China Sea, China’s maritime gray-zone tactics and their implications for Philippine sovereignty, and Indo-Pacific alliances and security dynamics.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, and LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, and LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this must-listen episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Arthur Sinodinos, Australia’s former Ambassador to the United States and key figure in the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security pact, to get the exclusive inside story on how this landmark agreement came to be, how they dealt with fallout from capitals in China, France, and Southeast Asia, and why this agreement is a strategic game-changer for the Indo-Pacific region and global security.AUKUS Origins & Negotiations: Ambassador Sinodinos takes listeners behind the scenes, sharing firsthand accounts of the tense and complex negotiations that led to the historic AUKUS pact. Learn how shifting geopolitics, submarine technology, and strategic urgency propelled Australia to pursue nuclear-powered submarines, pivoting away from a French deal to partner with the US and UK.The Political Hurdles and Breakthroughs: Hear exclusive details on the US administration’s priorities—affordability, bipartisan support, and non-proliferation—and the roles played by world leaders in making AUKUS a reality. Sinodinos delves into how the agreement was shaped amidst the skepticism, and how subsequent legislative reforms have already boosted technology sharing and industrial collaboration among the allies.Regional and Global Impact: This episode addresses the shockwaves AUKUS sent through the Indo-Pacific and beyond: the diplomatic fallout with France, reactions from China and ASEAN countries, and the challenges of keeping such a monumental agreement secret until the last moment. Sinodinos also discusses the "Pillar Two" focus on advanced capabilities like AI, quantum, and cyber, adding another level of strategic cooperation.The Future of AUKUS and Defence Policy: The conversation explores ongoing debates in Australia—including headwinds from prominent critics, questions about US commitment, and concerns about defence spending thresholds. Sinodinos assesses the credibility of America’s promises to deliver nuclear submarines and outlines the pressure both countries face to stay on schedule and deliver strategic value.Personal Insights from Washington During Crisis: Discover what it was like running the Australian embassy in Washington D.C. during the COVID-19 pandemic, the tumultuous 2020 US election, and the January 6th Capitol riot. Sinodinos candidly reflects on bridging cultural divides, correcting Australian misconceptions about America, and what makes the US-Australia partnership resilient through political and economic shocks.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso interview Indonesian international law scholar Aristyo Darmawan about President Prabowo Subianto's transformative foreign policy during his first six months in office. The discussion reveals a dramatic shift in Indonesia's strategic positioning as the nation balances between major powers while pursuing ambitious economic goals.Darmawan highlights Indonesia's controversial decision to join BRICS, making it the first Southeast Asian nation to become a full member. This move reflects Prabowo's pragmatic approach to achieving his ambitious 8% economic growth target and funding expensive social programs like free nutritious meals for schoolchildren. The conversation explores Indonesia's surprising recognition of "overlapping claims" with China in the South China Sea through a joint development agreement - a decision that shocked foreign ministry officials and potentially signals implicit recognition of Beijing's nine-dash line claims.The episode examines Indonesia's delicate balancing act between U.S. and Chinese interests, including the recent tariff negotiations with the Trump administration that reduced tariffs from 32% to 19%. However, this deal came with significant concessions, including commitments to purchase American aircraft and remove trade barriers. The discussion reveals how public sentiment, particularly regarding the Palestinian conflict, influences Indonesian perceptions of the United States and benefits China's regional standing.Darmawan emphasizes Prabowo's highly personalized, top-down foreign policy approach, which has bypassed traditional bureaucratic channels and created uncertainty about Indonesia's strategic objectives. This "merry-go-round diplomacy" shows high activity but unclear goals, contrasting with previous administrations' more structured approaches.The conversation also addresses Indonesia's evolving role within ASEAN, its cautious stance on security groupings like AUKUS, and the challenges in its relationship with Australia. Aristyo, Ray, and Jim also discuss how Chinese propaganda efforts and the reduction of U.S. information initiatives like Radio Free Asia have shifted regional narratives.👉 Follow Aristyo's analysis on LinkedIn and X (@aristioo) for ongoing commentary on Indonesian foreign policy and international law.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In this special, emergency episode, we dive into the dramatic South China Sea incident this week near Scarborough Shoal. Fresh from Manila, co-host Ray Powell—drawing on his expertise as the Director of the SeaLight maritime transparency organization—takes the "guest" seat to unpack the events with co-host Jim Carouso. The discussion highlights the escalating China-Philippines tensions, with its implications for regional stability and US alliances.Our hosts describe how a Chinese destroyer slammed into a China Coast Guard vessel while pursuing the much smaller Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Suluan near Scarborough Shoal on August 11, 2025. The collision crumpled the Coast Guard ship's bow and likely caused casualties. Ray notes the Suluan got within 10.5 nautical miles of the shoal, closer than any Philippine vessel in over a year, which challenged China's undeclared exclusion zone around the contested feature in a way that drew an unexpected military response.Providing context, Ray traces the shoal's history: China's 2012 seizure, the 2016 arbitral ruling affirming traditional fishing rights for all nations (including the Philippines), and recent escalations. Since spring 2024, China has enforced a 25-30 nautical mile exclusion zone, blocking Philippine government vessels and fishermen alike in defiance of the arbitral award. The Philippines’ “Kadiwa” mission involved five vessels to provide direct aid to fishermen now forced to operate in exposed waters due to China's denial of the shoal.The hosts analyze the game-changer: the People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) destroyer's direct involvement. This military escalation risked crossing red lines, like President Marcos's 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue statement that a Filipino sailor's death could invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Ray speculates the destroyer aimed to intimidate (not ram) the Philippine ship, but that a misjudgement in the other direction could have resulted in a catastrophe in the diplomatic, as well as the maritime, sense.Broader implications emerge: Ray evaluates China's increased presence amid new laws allowing 60-day detentions and new straight-baseline claims around the shoal. Jim and Ray try to separate how this incident relates to Beijing’s direct confrontation with Manila versus its indirect contest with the Philippines’ ally, the United States.Jim and Ray discuss other dramatic events around Scarborough Shoal this week: a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft faced Chinese fighter jet harassment, and the U.S. Navy conducted its own freedom of navigation operation (FONOP).They also ponder tactical coordination failures between China's navy and coast guard; discuss how Beijing’s lionization of the fighter pilot who died during the 2001 EP-3 incident may inspire recklessness; and what it all may mean for a future Taiwan contingency.Wrapping up, they urge reflection on abyss-peering scenarios: What if the collision had sunk the Philippine ship or killed Filipinos? It could trigger a diplomatic crisis and White House treaty decisions, testing US deterrence. For Filipinos, all this took place near an extremely important fishing ground within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.A potential silver lining? The mishap exposes China's vulnerabilities, and could deter future rash actions–but only if Beijing learns the right lessons. Its recent history, its state media’s unwillingness to even acknowledge the mishap, and its blame-shifting suggest it may elect a more confrontational path.👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso dive deep into former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's dramatic 2016 pivot from the US to China. Joined by authors Marites Vitug and Camille Elemia, they discuss their book Unrequited Love: Duterte's China Embrace.The conversation kicks off with why this "love affair" matters globally–how it reshaped South China Sea geopolitics, tested international law, and challenged the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty over Duterte’s six-year term in office. Duterte downplayed the 2016 arbitral ruling against China as "a piece of paper," turning a blind eye to Chinese incursions while seeking economic aid. Our guests explain how China provided cover for Duterte's drug war while the West heaped on criticism.Duterte's pro-China tilt stemmed from personal history: As Davao City mayor, he built ties with Chinese businessmen and harbored anti-US resentment from incidents like when a suspected US agent allegedly implicated in a Davao City bombing incident was whisked out of the country. Influenced by communist professor Jose Maria Sison and his anti-imperialist mother, Duterte viewed America as imperialists. Yet, surveys show Filipinos mostly remain pro-US and distrust China, with 70-80% favoring assertion of West Philippine Sea rights.The 2016 election saw Duterte win by portraying himself as an authentic outsider fighting a "narco state." His charm, social media savvy, and anti-elite messaging resonated, in contrast to his predecessor’s perceived lack of empathy.Economically, however, the promised benefits fell flat: Duterte touted billions in Chinese loans, but only 3-4 infrastructure projects materialized. In return, the authors contend that China gained "free rein" in disputed waters, ultimately blocking Philippine resource exploration. Xi Jinping benefited from strategic breathing room, more ASEAN allies, and weakened US influence—though some in Duterte's cabinet resisted, voicing the military’s deep sentiments against appeasement.Despite this, Rodrigo Duterte left office with his popularity largely intact due to his personal connection to the electorate, not his foreign policy. Our guests resist his supporters’ pragmatism claims, noting neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are able to balance China without surrendering their sovereignty.The authors express fears that his daughter Sara Duterte–the Philippines’ current vice president–may revive his pro-China policies if elected in 2028. She opposes US missiles like the Typhon; never criticizes Chinese aggression, and repeats his scare tactics about war. Unlike current President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr., who pivoted back to the US, Sara lacks significant Western exposure. Her charisma, Duterte brand, and social media machine boost her chances, even amid a recent impeachment effort.The episode touches on the recent Marcos-Trump deal (which saw tariffs barely cut from 20% to 19%), divided reactions in the Philippines, and media bubbles. The authors explain that President Duterte's current ICC detention for drug war crimes has drawn sympathy, potentially aiding Sara's bid.A must-listen for insights on Philippine politics, US-China rivalry, South China Sea tensions, and Duterte's enduring legacy. Get the book on Amazon (ebook) or Ateneo Press. Follow guests on Facebook, LinkedIn, or X.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In a groundbreaking episode, Ray and Jim welcome their first-ever head of state as a guest—President Surangel Whipps Jr., the 10th President of the Republic of Palau. This historic interview marks a milestone for the podcast, which has previously featured cabinet ministers, four-star officers, ambassadors, and parliamentarians across 90+ episodes.President Whipps delivered a powerful message about Palau's steadfast diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, declaring the relationship as lasting "until death do us part". Despite China's economic inducements and tourism boycotts, this Pacific island nation of just 20,000 people remains one of only 12 countries worldwide that continue to recognize Taiwan diplomatically.The president explained that Palau values partnerships with countries sharing the same principles: rule of law and aninternational rules-based order. Since becoming diplomatic allies with Taiwan in 1999, Palau has weathered significant economic pressure, including China's tourism boycott that reduced visitors from 100,000 Chinese tourists (then representing 70% of its total tourism) to zero after 2016.President Whipps shared compelling examples of China's economic warfare tactics, including offers to build casinos to solve Palau's pension crisis and promises of "a million tourists" with unlimited hotel development. However, the president emphasized that mass Chinese tourism brought environmental challenges, including illegal harvesting of protected species like the bumphead parrotfish and Napoleon wrasse.Under the Compact of Free Association (COFA), recently renewed, Palau maintains a perpetual defense relationship with the United States. The compact grants the US security and denial rights to Palau while providing economic stability and protection. President Whipps highlighted the construction of an over-the-horizon radar site, emphasizing that Palau has "always had a target on our back because of our location".Managing an exclusive economic zone the size of Texas with only two patrol boats presents enormous challenges. Whipps described ongoing issues with illegal fishing, unauthorized Chinese research vessels, and the discovery of 100 fish aggregating devices in Palau's waters. Chinese research vessels have been operating year-round in Palau's extended continental shelf, even naming underwater ridges with Chinese names.The president delivered sobering testimony about climate change impacts, describing it as "like a slow death" compared to the bombings of World War II. Palau faces disappearing stingless jellyfish (their top tourist attraction), rising sea levels, and the potential loss of entire low-lying islands with their unique cultures and languages.President Whipps emphasized the importance of multilateral partnerships, referencing Palau's traditional symbol of the surgeonfish: "when danger comes, you come together”. Through the Pacific Island Forum and other alliances, small island nations amplify their voices on critical issues like maritime security and climate change.This unprecedented interview offers unique insights from a Pacific island leader navigating great power competition while protecting sovereignty, culture, and environment.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, and LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, to analyze the fallout from Taiwan's recent failed recall election attempt and what it means for the island's future.The discussion centers on the July 26 recall votes, where an attempt to remove 24 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers from office was rejected by voters. This outcome solidifies a challenging period of divided government for President Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which controls the presidency but not the legislature. Templeman explains that the recalls, initiated by grassroots activists concerned about the KMT's legislative agenda, represented a high-stakes effort to shift the balance of power. Their failure means President Lai must continue to navigate an opposition that has resisted efforts to bolster Taiwan's defenses against pressure from the People's Republic of China (PRC).The podcast provides essential context on Taiwan's key political players:• The KMT, or "Blue" camp, is Taiwan's oldest political party. Once staunchly anti-communist, it now advocates for engagement and dialogue with Beijing and is seen as the party the PRC prefers. The KMT positions itself as better able to manage cross-strait relations peacefully.• The DPP, or "Green" camp, is more skeptical of China. The Lai administration has focused on strengthening Taiwan's military and civil resilience, a stance the KMT-led opposition claims is provocative.Templeman unpacks the broader geopolitical implications, touching on how Beijing frames the recall failure as a rejection of "Taiwan independence". The conversation also covers the recent US decision to deny President Lai a stop in New York City during a planned transit visit, a move viewed by many as a concession to Beijing amid ongoing US-China negotiations. This highlights the complex and often transactional nature of the US-Taiwan relationship.Looking ahead, with the recall option almost exhausted, Taiwan's political factions face a stalemate. Templeman suggests this could lead to either more intense partisan conflict or a period of moderation and compromise as both parties eye the 2026 local elections. This episode offers a crucial analysis of the domestic power struggles and international pressures shaping Taiwan's path forward.👉 Follow Kharis on LinkedIn👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.