Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0?In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss:• The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc.• The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation.• Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties.• The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy?Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you.Anuj Gupta leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn or on X, @anujg • Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook• Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight• Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn• Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios.Taiwan’s Internal Security CrisisCole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing.Taiwan Identity & Independence MovementsTaiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive.Hong Kong’s Cautionary TaleBeijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals.Chinese Cognitive Warfare SuccessWhile China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself.The Greatest Threat: Accidental EscalationCole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways.Taiwan’s Defense Strategy EvolutionTaiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally.Why Taiwan’s Democracy MattersCole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism.👉 Follow J. Michael Cole at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security.​In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year.​What Happened?India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy.​Strategic ConsequencesThe Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership.​Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state.​India’s FutureDespite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware.​Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated.👉 Follow James Crabtree on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 122, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Robert Burrell, retired US Marine Corps officer and irregular warfare specialist, and Colonel (Ret.) Michael Burgoyne, University of Arizona professor and former Army attaché in Mexico, to analyze the unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The experts explore the operation’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, US foreign policy, and the international rules-based order.The Venezuela Operation: A New PrecedentBurrell and Burgoyne dissect the extraordinary special operations mission that extracted Maduro in just two and a half hours. The guests explain how three decades of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and Maduro created a nexus between China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in America’s hemisphere. The 2024 election, won by opposition candidate Edmundo González, was rigged by Maduro, prompting the Trump administration’s decisive action led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.Legal and Strategic ImplicationsThe discussion examines the operation’s framing as a law enforcement action under foreign terrorist organization designations - a controversial use of Article 2 presidential powers without Congressional authorization. Burgoyne warns this unilateral approach abandons post-WWII hemispheric cooperation frameworks like the Organization of American States Charter and the “Good Neighbor Policy,” returning instead to early 20th-century interventionism reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.Indo-Pacific ConnectionsThe experts draw critical parallels for Indo-Pacific allies who depend on international law and the rules-based order. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia may question US commitment to multilateral norms, while adversaries like China could exploit the precedent to justify their own unilateral actions. Brazil and other regional powers are already diversifying partnerships with China and BRICS nations, concerned about unpredictable US interventionism and trade policy.What Comes Next?With Maduro’s vice president maintaining control in Caracas and the regime apparatus intact, the guests outline scenarios ranging from peaceful opposition transition to Libya-style state collapse. They emphasize Venezuela’s complexity: three decades of corruption, transnational criminal organizations, and a population unfamiliar with democracy. Best-case scenarios require international cooperation and long-term US commitment - both uncertain given the operation’s unilateral nature.The episode concludes with sobering assessments about narrative control, regional stability, and whether this operation serves as prologue to regime change efforts in Cuba and Nicaragua.👉 Follow Rob Burrell on his web site, robertburrell.com, or at his Substack👉 Follow Mike Burgoyne on LinkedIn 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 121, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former US diplomat, to examine Taiwan’s critical energy vulnerability and China’s gray zone coercion strategies. Singleton, co-author of FDD’s recent report “Maritime Protection of Taiwan’s Energy Vulnerability,” reveals how Taiwan’s mere 10-day supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) creates an Achilles heel Beijing could exploit without firing a shot - and why semiconductor supply chains, global economies, and US deterrence strategy all hang in the balance.Taiwan’s Energy Crisis: 10 Days to DisasterTaiwan imports 90% of its energy, with over half arriving by sea as LNG from suppliers who may be susceptible to PRC coercion. Through extensive war gaming featuring participants from Taiwan’s National Security Council, Japan, Australia and former Trump administration officials including Matt Pottinger, Singleton’s team discovered Taiwan would face “Sophie’s Choice” dilemmas within two weeks of a Chinese quarantine. The scenario revealed that energy companies would be pressured to comply with new and onerous requirements, while diplomatic pressure to reduce just one LNG shipment per week could trigger cascading blackouts and force Taiwan to choose between powering hospitals or semiconductor fabrication plants.​Quarantine vs. Blockade: The Gray Zone AdvantageSingleton explains the critical distinction between blockades - which carry international legal consequences and can activate UN responses - and quarantines, which exist in “squishy” legal territory that China deliberately exploits. During war gaming, Singleton playing Xi Jinping accomplished every objective without triggering US red lines by characterizing aggressive actions as “safety inspections” and “counter-piracy operations,” language already familiar from South China Sea operations. This asymmetric approach keeps American responses in “off” mode while systematically degrading Taiwan’s resilience through political warfare and disinformation campaigns.​Semiconductor Leverage and Allied ResponseWhen Taiwan’s war game participants announced they would cut power to TSMC to force international intervention, it represented a mic-drop moment - Taiwan exercising agency by threatening global semiconductor supply chains. The scenario exposed uncomfortable truths about allied commitment, with Japan able to weather the crisis due to substantial LNG reserves, while Australia’s involvement remained uncertain despite AUKUS commitments. Singleton argues classic deterrence models map poorly onto gray zone operations, and reestablishing deterrence after allowing coercion to proceed requires “outsized” responses that current political will may not support.​Solutions: From LNG Diversification to Nuclear ReactorsSingleton advocates for increased US LNG exports to Taiwan, enhanced energy storage through hardened mountain facilities and floating terminals, and reconsideration of small modular reactors (SMRs) at key government and military sites - potentially creating a deterrent effect against Chinese targeting due to nuclear fallout risks. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act’s increase from $300 million to $1 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan represents progress, but energy resilience remains the critical vulnerability China will exploit.👉 Follow Craig Singleton at the FDD or on X at @CraigMSingleton👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this special year-end edition, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on a transformative 2025 in the Indo-Pacific, examining the dramatic shift from conventional diplomacy to hard power politics under the Trump 2.0 administration. The episode provides a comprehensive review of the podcast’s most impactful conversations, from national government leaders to topical experts, while analyzing the year’s major geopolitical developments.Trump 2.0 and the Hard Power PivotJim and Ray discuss how the year began with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel’s appearance, marking the podcast’s first sitting ambassador interview. Following President Trump’s January inauguration, 2025 witnessed a fundamental reorientation of American Indo-Pacific policy away from soft power initiatives toward military deterrence and economic leverage through tariffs. They discuss how this approach disrupted established norms and international agreements, with potential Supreme Court challenges to executive power looming in 2026.China’s Gray Zone and Political Warfare CampaignsGray zone and political warfare emerged as a dominant theme, with a topical episode featuring the RAND Corporation’s Todd Helmus becoming the year’s most downloaded audio content. The hosts recall what they learned about China’s comprehensive political warfare strategy, which treats peacetime as a mere continuation of conflict through non-military means. Notable coverage included the extraordinary incident where two Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided near Scarborough Shoal, producing the year’s top video episode as Beijing’s propagandists struggled for four days to craft a narrative blaming the Philippines for a setback they couldn’t admit to.Regional Flashpoints and ConflictsThe podcast provided critical context for unexpected conflicts, including the India-Pakistan and Thailand-Cambodia border wars. These complex, multi-generational disputes were unpacked by regional experts like Indian strategic analyst Nitin Gokhale and former Cambodian Ambassador Pou Sothirak.The Trump-Modi Relationship UnravelsWhat began as a seemingly stable partnership deteriorated rapidly in 2025, with Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin providing blunt analysis of an unexpectedly cooling U.S.-India relationship. The Trump administration’s surprising pivot toward Pakistan represented a stunning reversal from Trump 1.0 policies, raising questions about Quad’s future effectiveness and regional security cooperation.Transnational Crime and Human TraffickingInvestigative reporting by the Washington Post’s Sue-Lin Wong exposed the exponential expansion and brutal reality of scam compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines, where human trafficking victims are forced into “pig-butchering” and cryptocurrency fraud operations. We also featured Washington Post reporter Rebecca Tan discussing the methamphetamine crisis fueled by Chinese precursor chemicals flowing through lawless Myanmar territories into markets across Asia.Historic Interviews and Podcast Milestones2025 brought unprecedented access, including interviews with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and the podcast’s first head-of-state guest, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. Documentary filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama also came on to discuss Beijing’s failed attempt to suppress her West Philippine Sea documentary, while North Korean defector Timothy Cho shared his harrowing escape story.​The hosts also recall the podcast’s experiments with live broadcasts covering Australia’s election results and China-Japan tensions.2026 OutlookMonthly listenership quadrupled in 2025, establishing the podcast as the leading Indo-Pacific affairs platform. As 2026 approaches, the hosts anticipate continued geopolitical turbulence, Supreme Court tariff decisions and evolving great power competition dynamics across the region.

In Ep. 119, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), to assess the health of the US-Australia alliance as it approaches its 75th anniversary in 2026. Bassi, a former National Security Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister, argues that while the institutional foundation of the alliance remains robust, we are living in the “most dangerous times since the end of World War II” - a reality that demands confidence, courage, and a doubling down on partnerships to counter the rising influence of China and Russia.Bassi frames the current geopolitical landscape as more precarious than the Cold War, driven by adversaries who believe the US-led order is in decline. He emphasizes that the alliance is not just a legacy of the past but a critical necessity for the future. For Australia, the “fear of abandonment” - a historical anxiety about great power withdrawal - remains a potent strategic driver. The response, Bassi argues, must be to demonstrate that the US and its allies can still compete, even dominate, and provide stability in the region.The hosts and Bassi discuss the recently concluded Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN). While the fact that the meeting occurred during a chaotic year - marked by US political transitions and Australian elections - is a success in itself, Bassi notes a potential “missed opportunity.” For the first time in recent memory, the meeting concluded without a joint press conference or a formal joint statement, replaced only by a fact sheet. Bassi explores whether this break in precedent signals mere logistical hurdles or deeper misalignments on specific policy nuances, particularly regarding China.Despite questions around messaging, the alliance is delivering substance. Bassi champions the value of increased US force posture initiatives in Australia, arguing that a larger American footprint is a net positive for regional stability. The trio also discuss the “implementation phase” of AUKUS, noting that the partnership has achieved bipartisanship across the US, UK, and Australia despite leadership changes in all three nations. Bassi describes AUKUS not as a short-term deal but as a “generational, hopefully forever” commitment that transcends individual administrations.Reflecting on the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, the group compares the current dynamic to the friction of the Trump 1.0 era, during which they all served in government roles together in Australia. Bassi contends that the alliance is institutionally “stronger than any government of the day.” He points to the smooth landing of recent AUKUS and critical minerals agreements as evidence that the ecosystem of defense and intelligence cooperation continues to thrive, regardless of leader-to-leader personalities.👉 In addition to his current role as Executive Director of ASPI, Justin Bassi previously served as the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and as Chief of Staff to Foreign Minister Marise Payne. Follow him on LinkedIn or on X at @BassiJustin👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this essential episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome two returning guests and leading strategic thinkers: retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, author of “The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire,” and Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-host of the Net Assessment Podcast. Together, they dissect the Trump administration’s newly released National Security Strategy and its implications for U.S. alliances, Indo-Pacific security, and the evolving competition with China.​NSS Unveiled: Zack explains what the National Security Strategy (NSS) is - the connective tissue linking U.S. objectives to the ways and means of achieving them - while noting the internal contradictions and lack of central logic. Released with minimal fanfare in early December, this NSS marks a significant departure from conventional approaches to American global engagement.​Regional Winners and Losers: Mick offers his characteristically candid, “she’ll be right, mate” assessment, arguing that while Europe faces a much more civilizational challenge under this strategy, Indo-Pacific allies like Australia, Japan, and Taiwan emerge relatively intact. The document maintains U.S. commitment to the defense of the first island chain, though the beleaguered Philippines notably goes unmentioned.​Spheres of Influence and Inconsistencies: The experts dissect the document’s troubling embrace of spheres of influence - asserting U.S. primacy in the Americas while condemning Chinese ambitions in Asia. This contradiction, combined with transactional mercantilism replacing values-based alliances, signals a fundamental shift in American grand strategy.​The China Challenge: Both guests critique how the NSS reduces all of Asia to a China problem, ignoring critical issues in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. They explore China’s aggressive response to Japanese Prime Minister Takeuchi’s Taiwan comments and what Beijing’s gray zone operations reveal about testing U.S. resolve.​Deterrence and Taiwan: Zack warns that U.S. strategy focuses too narrowly on preventing a Taiwan amphibious invasion while neglecting China’s political warfare strategy. Mick emphasizes that Xi Jinping views Taiwan as a political problem, not primarily a military one, and may seek a grand bargain with President Trump.​Technology and National Security: The conversation addresses the controversial decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced H200 chips to China, which both view as a significant national security mistake that undermines the technology competition goals in the NSS.Congressional Pushback: The recently released National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions constraining troop withdrawals from South Korea and other guardrails, reflecting bipartisan congressional frustration with lack of Pentagon consultation.​Episode 118 provides indispensable analysis for understanding how U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is developing under Trump 2.0, and why allies and adversaries alike are recalculating their positions in the world’s most dynamic and consequential region.👉 Follow Zack at AEI or on X, @ZackCooper👉 Follow Mick at Futura Doctrina or on X, @WarInTheFuture👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Ep. 117, Washington Post Southeast Asia Bureau Chief Rebecca Tan joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her investigative reporting on the massive surge of methamphetamines flooding the Asia-Pacific. While the U.S. remains focused on the fentanyl crisis, Tan explains how the same network of Chinese chemical manufacturers is simultaneously fueling a "meth tsunami" that is overwhelming law enforcement from Thailand to Australia.The Global SyndicateRebecca details how Chinese chemical companies—often the very same entities supplying Mexican cartels with fentanyl precursors—are shipping vast quantities of drug ingredients into Southeast Asia. Unlike the U.S. opioid crisis, the Asian market is being inundated with methamphetamine produced in Myanmar’s lawless borderlands. Tan explains that this is not a parallel problem but a singular, global supply chain rooted in China’s massive chemical industry.The New Golden TriangleThe conversation explores how drug production has shifted from mainland China to the "Wild West" of Myanmar’s Shan State. Following crackdowns by Beijing, criminal syndicates relocated to border areas controlled by ethnic militias like the United Wa State Army. Tan describes the surreal atmosphere of border towns like Tachilek, where casinos, scam compounds, and drug trafficking operations thrive under a distinct set of rules, shielded by the chaos of Myanmar's civil war.Geopolitics of PrecursorsA key takeaway is the geopolitical leverage Beijing holds over this trade. Tan notes that while China has the capacity to clamp down on these exports—as it does with critical minerals—it treats counternarcotics cooperation as a political bargaining chip. The hosts and Tan discuss the frustration of regional powers like Thailand and Australia, who lack the geopolitical weight of the U.S. to demand action from China, leaving them vulnerable to a flood of cheap, potent narcotics.👉 Follow Rebecca Tan’s reporting at The Washington Post and on X, @rebtanhs👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook.👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In Ep. 116, Senator Todd Young of Indiana sits down with co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss why what happens in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and across the first island chain directly shapes America’s prosperity and national security. Senator Young, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer and one of the Senate’s leading voices on Indo-Pacific security, explains that he's championing the Ships for America Act and the HARPOON Act because he believes the U.S. cannot afford to turn inward in an era of intensifying competition with China.​Drawing on his experience from a recent visit to the Philippines, Senator Young describes a population that feels “under siege” as China’s coast guard and maritime militia harass commercial and fishing vessels, challenge Manila’s sovereign rights, and test U.S. treaty commitments in one of the world’s most dangerous sea lanes. He explains how the northern Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and the broader first island chain form a critical maritime corridor for global trade - and how Beijing’s push to control these waters could give it leverage over shipping, energy flows, and supply chains that Americans rely on every day.​Young walks through two signature legislative initiatives: the HARPOON Act, which equips the U.S. and its partners to push back against China’s illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and broader resource predation, and the Ships for America Act, which aims to revive U.S. commercial shipbuilding capacity from just a handful of ocean-going vessels per year to a resilient fleet able to support both peacetime commerce and wartime logistics. He highlights how allies such as South Korea and Japan can bring capital, technology, and best practices to U.S. shipyards while expanded training pipelines build the welders, skilled trades, and merchant mariners needed to crew and maintain a larger fleet.​The conversation also explores why the U.S. Coast Guard may be one of Washington’s most powerful but underutilized tools in countering China’s “gray-zone” activities, from illegal fishing to coercive law-enforcement-style operations far from China’s own shores. By combining Coast Guard authorities with new legislation and deeper capacity-building for regional partners, Young argues the U.S. can deter escalation, protect vital ocean resources, and help Indo-Pacific nations enforce their own laws in their own waters.​👉 Follow Sen. Young on his website or on X, @SenToddYoung👉 Follow the pod on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn, or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Peter Mattis, President of the Jamestown Foundation and former CIA analyst, to dissect the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) "political warfare" against Taiwan. Mattis argues this is not merely diplomatic maneuvering, but "United Front work playing out on a global scale" - a comprehensive campaign to reshape the international order by recreating China’s domestic political controls abroad.​War by Other MeansMattis grounds the political warfare concept in George Kennan’s Cold War definition: the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in peacetime. For Beijing, unification is a political objective requiring total control over Taiwan’s social, economic, and political life - goals that military force alone cannot secure. The CCP seeks to "pull in" global interests, ensuring they are mediated through Beijing rather than through alliances or international law.​The View from TaiwanFor the Taiwanese, this warfare is felt on a spectrum. It ranges from the overt "gray zone" harassment of military aircraft and sand dredgers to the psychological grinding of CCP-aligned media narratives. These narratives are designed to paint the U.S. as unreliable and unification as inevitable. Mattis specifically highlights the corrosive effect of espionage, noting that every spy scandal erodes the critical trust necessary for Taiwan’s own bureaucracy and its security partners.​United Front: A Global DragnetA key mechanism discussed is the "Council for the Promotion of the Peaceful Reunification of China," which operates chapters globally, including in the U.S. and the Philippines. Mattis explains how these groups mobilize diaspora communities, often hijacking the voices of pragmatic businesspeople, to influence local politicians. He cites the recent indictment of former New York state official Linda Sun as a prime example of how these influence operations effectively bury engagement with Taiwan inside democratic institutions without leaving a public trace.​The Japan Example & Global SignalingWhen Japan’s Prime Minister recently called a Taiwan contingency an "existential threat," China responded with fierce rhetoric and economic coercion. Mattis explains this reaction was double-edged: it aimed to punish Tokyo, but also served as a signal to the "Malaysias and Indonesias" of the region. The message is clear: if Beijing can inflict pain on a major power like Japan, smaller nations should fear the consequences of stepping out of line.​The Democratic DeficitWhy do democracies struggle to push back? Mattis argues our institutions are too siloed: the military ignores non-kinetic threats, diplomats fear rocking the boat, and law enforcement is jurisdiction-bound. China exploits these seams to operate without consequence. Mattis suggests democracies must stop looking for "symmetric" responses - which often don't exist - and instead pursue asymmetric, disproportionate measures to re-establish deterrence and uncertainty for Beijing.​👉 Follow Peter Mattis on X, @PLMattis👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this special live pod, Ray and Jim were joined by two distinguished guests: Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. Together, they unpack China's escalating diplomatic offensive against Japan following PM Sanae Takaichi's recent statements about Taiwan.​What Sparked the CrisisEp. 114 centers on Takaichi's remarks in the Japanese Diet, where she responded to a hypothetical question about a Taiwan blockade scenario. She stated that if China imposed a blockade around Taiwan and the U.S. intervened, Japan could classify the situation as an "existence-threatening situation" under its national security legislation-potentially allowing deployment of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Shingo emphasized this was not a policy change but a restatement of Japan's longstanding legal framework established a decade ago. Nevertheless, Beijing has reacted fiercely, labeling her comments an "unacceptable intervention" in China's domestic affairs.​China's Strategic CalculusBonnie explained that China's strong reaction stems from multiple factors: Xi Jinping's perceived loss of face after meeting Takaichi at the APEC summit, the 80th anniversary of WW2 amplifying anti-Japanese narratives, and concerns about Japan's military buildup in its Southwest Islands. China's broader message, she notes, is "kill the chicken to scare the monkey"-punishing Japan to deter other nations from challenging Beijing's red lines on Taiwan. China is also testing whether the United States will stand firmly behind its allies, seeking to drive wedges in the U.S.-Japan and other alliances.​The Stakes for Japan and the RegionShingo underscored Taiwan's vital strategic importance to Japan. If Taiwan falls under CCP control, the entire East China Sea would become contested territory, potentially forcing U.S. forces to retreat from Okinawa and fundamentally weakening Japan's defense posture. As former Prime Minister Abe famously stated: "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency." Shingo also discussed the shocking details about a Chinese consul general's social media post threatening that Takaichi's "dirty neck will be chopped off"-unprecedented diplomatic intimidation that has only strengthened Japanese public support for the new prime minister, whose approval ratings have surged into the mid-70s.​The One China Policy vs. One China PrincipleThe discussion clarifies a critical distinction often misunderstood: The U.S. "One China policy" and those of other Western nations are fundamentally different from China's "One China principle." Neither the U.S. nor Japan has ever agreed that Taiwan is part of China-they merely "acknowledged" or "understood and respected" Beijing's position. China is now aggressively pushing countries to abandon their individual policies and adopt its principle, which holds Taiwan as an "inalienable" part of China.​Looking AheadBoth guests anticipate a prolonged chill in China-Japan relations. However, Shingo noted that China's economic vulnerabilities limit its coercion options-Beijing needs Japanese investment for its struggling economy. If Takaichi maintains her popularity and secures a strong political mandate, China may eventually be forced to engage with her government, as it did with the long-serving Abe administration. Glaser warns that China sees opportunity in a perceived U.S. decline and will continue pressuring allied coalitions, making unity among democratic partners more essential than ever.​👉 Follow Shingo on X, @YamagamiShingo👉 Follow Bonnie on X, @BonnieGlaser👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Alvin Camba, a sociologist who studies Southeast Asian political economies, China relations, and critical mineral supply chains. Camba, author of the New America article "The Jakarta Model is No Blueprint," critiques Indonesia's export ban on raw nickel and incentives for domestic refining, which have driven economic growth and positioned the country as a key EV battery supplier but have also resulted in severe human and environmental costs.​​Growth at what cost? Camba explains the "Jakarta model” - policies forcing mining firms to sell domestically, spurring smelters and industrial parks but creating oligopsonies where refiners dictate low prices, triggering a "race to the bottom" in mining practices. This has led to widespread environmental damage like air pollution, acid leakage, water contamination, land grabs, and health issues, including rising asthma and cancer rates near facilities since 2019, while workers endure 10-12 hour shifts over six-day weeks.​Impressive parks, hidden harms: Inside sites like those in Sulawesi, visitors see advanced infrastructure with airports, ports, hotels, and thousands of workers, often funding local clinics and schools, which sustains public support despite scandals. Yet, mining outside these parks produces tailings dumps and forest clearance, while smelters emit pollutants into the air and rivers; in Kalimantan, bauxite processing creates radioactive red mud waste.​Global copycats and Western challenges: Countries like Namibia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and the Philippines eye the model for capital influx, often ignoring downsides amid weakened environmental oversight and political ties to Chinese joint ventures dominating smelters. Camba urges slower development with strong regulations, consultations, and transparency; for the West, building refining capacity requires market incentives to counter China's cheap, dirty dominance, with short-term reserves bridging gaps amid U.S.-China standoffs over rare earths and semiconductors.​👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook.👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, host Ray Powell sits down with Dr. Lailufar Yasmin, a renowned political scientist at the University of Dhaka, to unpack Bangladesh's dramatic recent political crisis and explore why what happens in this densely populated South Asian nation matters to the broader Indo-Pacific regional stability.Recorded just one day after Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death in absentia for crimes against humanity--this conversation provides crucial context for understanding a nation in transition. Powell and Dr. Yasmin discuss the uprising that toppled Hasina's government, the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and the geopolitical implications for great power competition in South Asia.Dr. Yasmin explains how the July 2024 student protests escalated into a nationwide uprising after Hasina's government responded with lethal force, killing over 1,400 protesters. The movement, known as the "July Uprising," ultimately forced Hasina to flee to India on August 5, 2024, ending her 15-year authoritarian rule. The conversation explores how Hasina transformed from a democracy icon into an increasingly autocratic leader who rigged elections, suppressed opposition, and dismantled democratic institutions.The episode delves into the "July Charter," a reform blueprint calling for constitutional changes including a bicameral parliament, proportional representation, prime ministerial term limits, and restoration of the caretaker government system. Dr. Yasmin discusses the upcoming February 2026 referendum and elections, explaining the challenges of ensuring credible democratic transition amid deep political divisions, the banning of the Awami League political party, and security concerns.The conversation reveals how India's strong historical support for Hasina and the Awami League—rooted in India's assistance during Bangladesh's 1971 War of Independence—has created tension following her ouster. Dr. Yasmin describes India's initial disinformation campaigns falsely blaming Pakistani intelligence for the uprising, and how the interim government's engagement with China has also caused concern in New Delhi. She argues that Bangladesh must pursue an independent foreign policy that serves its national interests rather than simply accommodating regional powers.The discussion also provides essential historical context, tracing Bangladesh's origins from the 1971 Liberation War when East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) fought for independence from West Pakistan, resulting in genocide that killed an estimated three million people. Dr. Yasmin explains how this history continues to shape contemporary politics, including emotional debates over justice and national identity.Dr. Yasmin also addresses the selection of Muhammad Yunus as interim leader, describing how the Nobel Peace Prize winner's global credibility and pioneering work in microcredit made him an acceptable figure to unite a divided nation. She discusses both the promise and challenges of his leadership, including concerns about whether the interim government can remain truly neutral given that many of its coordinators are former student protesters.Dr. Yasmin challenges Western misconceptions about Bangladesh, emphasizing the nation's resilience, innovation in climate adaptation, economic progress, and warm hospitality.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this insightful podcast episode, senior U.S. defense analyst Andrew Jensen joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down cognitive warfare—the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) key tactic for shaping perceptions, decisions, and narratives to achieve strategic goals without traditional military conflict. Leveraging his deep knowledge of Sino-Russian relations and information operations, Jensen explores how cognitive warfare targets human thought processes before, during, and after battles. Discover why the CCP invests heavily in these methods, drawing from its revolutionary history, and how they play out in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and beyond.Jensen defines cognitive warfare as the strategic manipulation of how individuals, adversaries, and societies think and perceive reality. Unlike the cyber domain's focus on "down code" (technical infrastructure), cognitive warfare operates on the "up-code" of human cognition to preempt and control battlefields. The CCP deploys this through its "Three Warfares" doctrine: public opinion warfare (crafting narratives), psychological warfare (influencing morale and self-perception), and legal warfare (exploiting international rules for advantage). These tactics blur together, with roots in early CCP strategies to dominate discourse and erode opposition.In South China Sea disputes, narrative warfare pushes CCP sovereignty claims like the nine-dash line to overshadow competing views, while psychological warfare boosts national pride through initiatives like tourist cruises to disputed islands. Legal warfare selectively ignores rulings, such as the 2016 arbitral decision, and enforces unilateral zones to confuse global norms and intimidate neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. Examples include one-sided environmental declarations in contested waters, which validate claims for Chinese audiences and heighten regional tensions.Beijing masterfully targets societal fissures in open societies, amplifying issues like U.S. military bases in Okinawa or political divides in the Philippines and Taiwan via social media bots and fake accounts to create doubt without direct attribution. In Taiwan, after the overt backing of the pro-unification Kuomintang backfired and strengthened the independence-focused Democratic Progressive Party, the CCP pivoted to covert co-optation of figures like retired officers. In Southeast Asia, these efforts aim to erode U.S. and Quad influence, positioning China as the region's natural leader while aligning with domestic nationalist narratives.Jensen recommends countering by injecting diverse perspectives into China through private media, culture, and soft power—outshining overt tools like Voice of America. For the U.S. and allies, building information resilience, avoiding adversarial mirror imaging, and cultivating critical thinking are essential to dismantle CCP narrative dominance.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Episode 110 features Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of "China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order." Kardon joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss how China uses domestic law, coast guard operations, and strategic ambiguity to reshape international maritime norms - especially in the South and East China Seas and the Yellow Sea.China’s Approach to Maritime Law: Kardon explains that China’s participation in international treaties, such as UNCLOS, differs fundamentally from rule-of-law societies like the U.S. Rather than constraining itself, China uses treaties as instruments for political and strategic advantage, showing significant flexibility in interpretation and enforcement.Global Impact of Indo-Pacific Maritime Order: The Indo-Pacific isn’t just a regional issue - what happens there affects global trade, technology supply chains, and the daily lives of people worldwide. The COVID pandemic and events like the Ever Given incident in the Suez Canal reveal the fragility of maritime order, making disruptions to the global order dangerous for prosperity and peace.Frictions in the South China Sea: China’s ratification of UNCLOS presented challenges, notably the framework that limits China’s ability to claim “historic” zones like the “nine-dash line.” Despite arbitration rulings against Chinese claims, China responds in ways that undermine the effectiveness of international mechanisms, often using ambiguous claims and building capacity to assert control regardless of legal setbacks.Law, Power, and Regional Responses: The episode highlights the contrast between the legalistic approaches of “cricket-playing nations” and China’s more instrumental use of law. Small states in the region rely on legal frameworks for protection, but China’s power allows it to bend or contest those rules.Recent Developments: China has expanded its exclusion zone around Scarborough Shoal and used environmental pretext to assert control, demonstrating a pattern of using lawfare as a tool for broader strategic objectives.Future Directions: The discussion covers the gridlock over the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct process, the decline of sentimentality about U.S. leadership in maritime law, and the general skepticism about international law’s ability to constrain powerful states. The hosts discuss the potential for the Indo-Pacific maritime disputes to become the setting for geopolitical drama, involving all facets from local fishermen and coast guards to great power competition.Kardon argues that China’s lawfare bolsters its capabilities: strength and presence on the water matter just as much, if not more, than legal arguments. He describes the situation as “possession is nine-tenths of the law”—a reality that smaller states cannot match with mere legal claims.Policy Takeaways: International law matters less when powerful states refuse to be constrained. China’s approach threatens regional cooperation and legal consistency.The episode calls for listeners to recognize how Indo-Pacific maritime order shapes global stability, trade, and strategic realities - and provides both practical insights and a thought-provoking narrative, encouraging listeners to see Indo-Pacific maritime disputes not just as legal questions but as complex dramas involving power, law, and the future of global cooperation.👉 Visit Isaac's web site, or follow him on X, @IBKardon👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn’t Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.​A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.​The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.​Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.​Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.​The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.​Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.​Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.​War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.​👉 Follow David Kang on X, @DaveCKang👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Ep. 108, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview CNN Tokyo correspondent Hanako Montgomery about the historic election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female prime minister, exploring her background, conservative policies, and the geopolitical challenges she faces amid rising regional tensions and domestic economic woes. The discussion highlights Takaichi's rise: how she broke through Japan's traditional patriarchal barriers, and how she will navigate its complex domestic politics and the rapidly changing Indo-Pacific geostrategic picture.Sanae Takaichi, formerly the economic security minister, emerged as Japan's fourth prime minister since Shinzo Abe's 2020 departure, marking a milestone as the country's first woman in the role despite Japan's low G7 ranking in gender parity. Unlike many politicians who come from dynasties, her background includes a TV anchor career in the mid-1990s, where she discussed politics and society, while her parents were a police officer and a car company worker. Known for her colorful personality (including a love for motorcycles and heavy metal music), she is a self-described workaholic and Abe protégé, advocating conservative stances like revising Japan's pacifist constitution, boosting defense spending to 2% of GDP, and opposing same-sex marriage.Takaichi's election comes during a period of turmoil for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which lost its parliamentary majority in recent elections amid scandals like unreported slush funds and ties to controversial groups linked to Abe's assassin. The long-dominant LDP now relies on a new coalition, creating an identity crisis between its conservative roots and younger reformers. Her "Sanaenomics"--looser fiscal policies, increased government spending, and inflation relief via billions in subsidies for household items--differs from Abenomics but faces hurdles from her coalition's fiscally conservative views and Japan's demographic crisis, including low birth rates and immigration crackdowns. Markets reacted positively with the Nikkei 225 hitting records post-election, but the yen also weakened, signaling investor excitement tempered by fiscal risks.Takaichi inherits a fraught Indo-Pacific landscape, with her hawkish views on China, including criticisms of its militarization, espionage by Chinese residents, and even ugly tourist behavior, drawing Beijing's ire via state media warnings that Japan is at a "crossroads." Her April Taiwan visit, pushing defense and economic ties without U.S. centrality, has heightened tensions, though economic interdependence may prompt pragmatic diplomacy during upcoming APEC and ASEAN meetings.Takaichi previously vowed female representation in her cabinet but appointed only two women, emphasizing qualifications over gender in a male-dominated field, surprising some observers. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher abound for her symbolic strength as a first female leader; however, there are policy differences between the two.Takaichi's tenure could reshape Japan's role amid uncertainties about U.S. commitment and China's assertiveness in areas such as the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and the South China Sea, with public support growing for constitutional revision and defense hikes due to perceived threats. Her success hinges on economic delivery--tackling inflation and wages--while balancing alliances.👉 Follow Hanako on X, @HanakoMontgome1👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this episode, acclaimed Filipino filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her documentary, "Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea"—a film Beijing tried repeatedly to block inside the Philippines and internationally. Villarama shares her perspective on the struggle of Filipino fisherfolk and defenders facing intimidation on the region’s contested waters, and how their experience holds urgent lessons for food security, truth, and sovereignty across the Indo-Pacific.A story bigger than borders: Villarama frames the West Philippine Sea not merely as a local dispute, but as a global issue involving food security and human dignity—where what happens to Filipino fishermen and their defenders ripples far beyond the region.Courage and resistance on the water: Her documentary spotlights Arnel Satam, whose David-versus-Goliath confrontations with China’s bullying paramilitary vessels epitomize the bravery and resolve of ordinary Filipinos under threat.Suppressed but not silenced: Repeated efforts to ban and discredit the documentary—in Manila and abroad—reflect real-world campaigns to silence stories that threaten powerful interests, but these actions have also served to attract even more attention and support.Funding and independence: Villarama explains how her team navigated the challenges of independent filmmaking in the Philippines, relying on grassroots backing and remaining free from government support, thus reinforcing the film’s authenticity and local perspective.Solidarity and the Streisand effect: She notes that pushback from China and “silent treatment” at home only amplified interest; acts of censorship drew more eyes and allies.Beyond politics—human connections: Villarama emphasizes that the heart of the story is about protecting livelihoods, identity, and the truth itself. She advocates seeing the sea as something that connects, not divides, and urges mutual respect between neighbors.Military and daily life on the edge: The film, as described by Villarama, captures the harsh realities of Filipino military postings on remote outposts, documenting both logistical struggles and profound patriotism that contrasts sharply with China's well-supported installations.Expanding the narrative: Despite obstacles, Villarama shares that “Food Delivery” has screened at over 80 venues, launched an Oscar campaign, and plans to continue sharing the fisherfolk's story worldwide—inviting communities everywhere to reflect on their own fight for truth and home.Takeaway message for global audiences: According to Villarama, defending truth and dignity is everyone’s responsibility: when one story is lost, the world’s humanity is diminished. She calls on viewers to see themselves in the struggle and to protect our “one sea, one world” for the sake of all.👉 For screening details, follow “Food Delivery: Fresh from the West Philippine Sea” on Facebook and Instagram👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

Veteran journalist Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to unpack how China’s economic rise is remaking alliances and perceptions throughout the Global South, and assesses the real stakes for prosperity and stability as competition intensifies.China is setting new international standards: As U.S. influence recedes, China’s growing economic power is shifting global norms in technology, governance, and more.Global South nations seek stability, not ideology: According to Olander, most countries in the region prioritize practical gains and development models, finding appeal in China’s modernization without Westernization.Leadership contested: China, India, and Indonesia are among the Indo-Pacific’s competitors for influence as champions of the Global South, but no single country truly “leads”; instead, nations want self-determined prosperity.Concerns about Chinese power are real but muted: Territorial disputes matter, but most regional players hedge by forging new partnerships—like Japan and the Philippines—while doubting U.S. reliability.The “debt trap myth”: Olander believes Chinese lending is generally profit-driven, not a conspiracy to seize strategic assets; governance failures, not Chinese ambition, explain crises like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.China’s economic model is both a boon and a barrier: While cheap Chinese exports drive growth, they also make it harder for poorer countries to move up the value chain.Digital and surveillance technology goes global: Olander says that China exports electronic surveillance tools widely, but so do other nations; countries choose models that fit their own priorities around sovereignty and economic development.Rivalries today differ from the Cold War: The U.S.–China competition is less binary than the U.S.–Soviet rivalry of the past, with most Global South leaders aiming for balanced relationships rather than forced choices.Latin America’s ties with China are deepening: Resources, markets, and political influence flow in both directions, shaping the region and U.S. trade policy.Olander’s unique view is that, beyond power politics or ideology, China’s appeal in the Global South rests on its ability to deliver tangible improvements without imposing its values. He highlights how these countries view great power engagement not as a zero-sum rivalry, but as an opportunity to chart their own paths to modernization and stability.👉 Follow Eric Olander on LinkedIn or X, @eric_olander, or visit the China Global South Project. 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia