Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Thailand's February 2026 snap election produced a result almost nobody predicted. The conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and openly backed by the military and monarchy, won a commanding victory, defeating the reformist People's Party by over 70 seats. The once-dominant Shinawatra-linked Pheu Thai party collapsed to its worst showing ever. What happened?In this episode, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior advisor for BowerGroupAsia and professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, breaks down how Thailand's political system works and why it seems to keep producing the same outcome lately. He explains the cycle of reform movements rising, winning elections, and then being dissolved by the courts or overthrown by military coups. After 13 coups and 20 constitutions in under a century, voter fatigue finally set in: turnout dropped to 65% and many young voters stayed home.Thitinan explores how the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict - the worst military clash between ASEAN member states in nearly 60 years - fueled nationalist sentiment that Bhumjaithai weaponized on the campaign trail. He also unpacks a striking contradiction: two-thirds of voters approved a referendum to rewrite the military-era constitution, yet handed power to the very establishment that wrote it.The conversation covers Thailand's economic challenges (92% household debt-to-GDP, stagnant growth, disruption from electric vehicles and AI), the transformation of the US-Thailand alliance from Cold War treaty to transactional trade relationship, and mainland Southeast Asia's growing "arc of instability" - from Myanmar's civil war to cross-border scam networks.Will the old guard finally deliver growth and stability, or is a reckoning on the horizon? Thitinan says the pressure is immense, and if the new government doesn't perform, the next wave of instability could be even bigger.👉 Follow Thitinan Pongsudhirak at BowerGroupAsia👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

When the U.S. recently launched strikes on Iran, the world’s attention turned to Diego Garcia, a vital military base in the Indian Ocean. Known as the “footprint of freedom,” this isolated atoll allows the U.S. to port Navy ships, resupply nuclear submarines, and launch strategic bombers. However, its future is in serious jeopardy.During the conflict, the UK initially withheld permission for the U.S. to launch strikes from the island. Beyond that, the UK has been pushing a highly controversial deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago, which includes Diego Garcia, to Mauritius.In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Cleo Paskal, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a leading expert on Chinese political warfare. Cleo unpacks the dangerous implications of the Chagos handover, warning it could allow Chinese maritime assets to operate dangerously close to U.S. forces, threatening American power projection.Cleo unpacks the uncertain prospects for the deal, and then proposes instead giving the Chagossian people a democratic vote in their future, and suggests they may very well prefer the status quo or even a U.S. affiliation to any handover to Mauritius.The conversation then pivots to the Pacific Islands, where China is quietly expanding its influence through political and gray zone warfare. Cleo details how a Chinese state-owned company secured a foothold in Yap (Federated States of Micronesia) by building a remote runway, gaining political leverage and physical presence right next to planned U.S. defense infrastructure.Cleo also sounds the alarm on the U.S. territory of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Located on the Second Island Chain, CNMI currently allows Chinese tourists to arrive without a visa, leading to massive local corruption, intelligence risks, and illegal maritime crossings into the highly secure military hubs of Guam.Tune in to discover why Cleo believes the transfer of Diego Garcia would be a “colossal strategic blunder,” how China is co-opting U.S. funds for its own Belt and Road projects, and why the frontline of Indo-Pacific security is much closer to home than we realize.👉 Follow Cleo Paskal at FDD, on X at @CleoPaskal, or on LinkedIn.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In December 2025, a four-ship People’s Liberation Army Navy task group - including an amphibious assault ship capable of carrying 1,000 Marines and 30 helicopters - tracked southeast through the Western Pacific, passing through waters near Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Australia scrambled surveillance aircraft. Pacific Island leaders said almost nothing publicly. Most of the world barely noticed.Our guest noticed - because she was there. Ambassador Laura Stone just retired as the US Ambassador to the Republic of the Marshall Islands, capping a distinguished Foreign Service career that included multiple tours in Beijing and serving as Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China. She joins hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to explain why this naval activity matters far more than the headlines suggest.In this episode: What is China’s “second island cloud” strategy, and why does the Marshall Islands sit at its center? What is the Compact of Free Association, and why does it make the Marshall Islands far more than just a remote atoll? What is Kwajalein Atoll, and why should you Google it right now? How is China using economic influence, bribery, and Belt and Road investment to gain a foothold in the Pacific - and what’s working (and not working) in the US response? What does the gutting of USAID mean for the Pacific Islands? And what does the nuclear legacy of US atomic testing still mean for Marshallese people today?Ambassador Stone also paints a frank picture of the Marshall Islands’ future - a country losing 3–5% of its population per year to outward migration, sitting just six feet above sea level, facing an existential climate threat that Washington is no longer prioritizing.👉 Follow Ambassador Laura Stone on LinkedIn👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

On February 20th, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs - a landmark decision that immediately scrambled U.S. trade policy and sent governments and businesses across the Indo-Pacific into a scramble to figure out what it means for them.Co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by two of the sharpest minds in U.S. trade and Asia-Pacific economic policy: Bill Reinsch, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and co-host of the Trade Guys podcast, and Nydia Ngiow, Managing Director for Global Trade and Economics at BowerGroupAsia in Singapore.In Episode 132 we break down:• What IEEPA is, how it became a tariff weapon, and why the Court said “no”• Trump’s immediate Plan B - a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and why that will almost certainly be challenged in court too• What Section 301, Section 232, and other alternative trade tools mean for countries in the region - and why they may be slower, narrower, and harder to wield• Whether countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Cambodia that negotiated trade deals under the IEEPA tariff threat got a raw deal - and what happens to those agreements now• The potential for domestic political backlash against leaders seen as having made too many concessions to Washington• Why the ruling may not have handcuffed Trump as much as the headlines suggest• And what the real-world economic impact of tariffs has - and hasn’t - been over the past yearIf you follow U.S.-China trade tensions, Indo-Pacific economics and geopolitics, or global supply chains, this episode is essential listening.👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Myanmar just held its latest round of so-called elections - but the military's proxy party won over 85% of seats after banning the country's most popular opposition party and imprisoning its leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Voting couldn't even take place across large portions of the country because resistance forces control the territory. So why do these sham elections matter to the rest of the world?In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with retired three-time U.S. Ambassador and author Scot Marciel to unpack what these elections really mean, and why the stakes reach far beyond Southeast Asia.Myanmar has become the world's largest source of methamphetamines and a booming hub for cyber scam operations that bilk victims worldwide out of billions of dollars annually. China is simultaneously deepening its strategic footprint in the country, building ports and pipelines from its southern provinces to the Indian Ocean - a critical geopolitical waterway - while Chinese companies extract rare earth minerals from Myanmar's north that barely benefit the country's own people.Ambassador Marciel explains why the military held elections at all - not out of any democratic impulse, but to manufacture legitimacy and give countries like China, India, and Russia a convenient excuse to re-engage. He also breaks down why ASEAN, despite refusing to certify the results, remains largely paralyzed: constrained by its own consensus rules and non-interference norms, while watching China's influence expand with little competition.On the outlook, Marciel is candid: there is no magic bullet, no easy diplomatic compromise, and the most likely near-term scenario is more of the same - a grinding civil war fading into the background while a fatigued world looks away. But he closes with one reason for hope: the extraordinary, unbreakable resilience of the Myanmar people themselves.👉 Read Ambassador Marciel’s book, Imperfect Partners: The United States and Southeast Asia👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In Ep. 130, Ray and Jim sit down with Clive Hamilton, one of the world's leading experts on Chinese Communist Party political influence operations. Hamilton is the author of the groundbreaking books Silent Invasion: China's Influence in Australia and Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World.In this compelling podcast, Hamilton shares the dramatic story behind Silent Invasion - a book so controversial that three major Australian publishers rejected it for fear of Beijing's retaliation. He reveals the personal costs of exposing CCP interference, from cyber-attacks that destroyed his laptop to being banned from China and labeled a "black hand" by Beijing's official media.Hamilton breaks down how the CCP's United Front Work Department orchestrates political warfare through elite capture, diaspora mobilization, and covert influence in universities, media, and politics. He explains how Australia's 2018 counter-interference laws and Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS) emerged as a democratic defense - and evaluates their real-world effectiveness, including enforcement challenges and necessary reforms.The conversation explores critical lessons for the Philippines and other Indo-Pacific nations facing similar CCP pressure, especially regarding South China Sea tensions. Hamilton offers practical advice on designing swift, effective counter-interference legislation while protecting diaspora communities from discrimination.This is essential listening for anyone interested in China’s strategy, foreign influence operations, national security, democratic resilience, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.👉 Follow Clive Hamilton on LinkedIn👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Japan’s February 8th snap election delivered a historic result: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a rare two‑thirds supermajority in the powerful lower house, giving her the strongest mandate any postwar leader has enjoyed to date. That will sharply increase what she can do on economic policy, defense readiness, and how Japan responds to pressures from both the US and China.​Jake Schlesinger - President and CEO of the US‑Japan Foundation and a longtime Japan-watcher - joins the show to explain why this election was a potential turning point in a political system often seen as stable to the point of stagnation. He argues that while Japan’s politics have frequently been defined by weak and short-lived prime ministers and cautious consensus, this vote creates the conditions for unusually decisive leadership.Schlesinger describes an electorate focused less on the LDP’s history of political ethics controversies and more on daily economic pressure combined with a sense that Takaichi herself represents a fresh face. The episode unpacks how Japanese voters can be skeptical about big fiscal promises while still rewarding the leader who seems most willing to speak directly to pocketbook issues like inflation, wages, and household strain.The conversation shifts to geopolitics, as Schlesinger highlights how China’s recent threats and coercive signaling appeared to backfire, strengthening public support for a leader who stands up rather than backing down. He frames this as a meaningful change in Japan’s public mood: a country once inclined to avoid antagonizing neighbors is increasingly prepared to accept friction if it’s tied to national security - particularly around Taiwan, a Chinese invasion of which Takaichi has warned would pose an existential crisis for Japan.The episode also examines what this election mandate could mean for the US‑Japan alliance. While people-to-people ties remain strong, Schlesinger notes that Tokyo is navigating a complex era of “America-First” politics - simultaneously hugging the US closer while hedging its bets with other regional partners like Australia, India, the Philippines, and South Korea. Finally, the discussion touches on constitutional constraints on Japan’s military and whether this supermajority could finally open the door to a formal revision.👉 Learn more about the US-Japan Foundation at its web site, on LinkedIn, on X at @usjf_ or on Facebook 👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this powerful episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Yaqiu Wang, a leading human rights advocate and fellow at the University of Chicago’s Forum for Free Inquiry and Expression. Born and raised in China, Wang offers a rare, insider perspective on what it really means to live under Xi Jinping’s surveillance state - and why the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) domestic repression is no longer just a “China problem,” but a direct threat to global freedom and Indo-Pacific security.Most Westerners assume Chinese citizens have struck a “grand bargain” - trading freedom for economic prosperity. Wang dismantles this myth, revealing a population that never agreed to this trade-off but is coerced into silence by a sophisticated apparatus of fear. She explains how the CCP exports its model of digital authoritarianism to countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, embedding surveillance tools into “smart city” projects that threaten democratic norms worldwide.Key Topics Discussed:The Surveillance State: Wang describes the psychological toll of living in a society where every digital interaction is monitored, leading to deep-seated self-censorship that follows Chinese citizens even after they emigrate to the West.The WeChat Trap: Discover how the “super app” WeChat functions as a Trojan horse for CCP influence, effectively holding the Chinese diaspora hostage by controlling their primary news source and connection to family back home.Xinjiang & Human Rights: An in-depth look at the mass internment of Uyghurs, the predictive policing algorithms that flag innocent behaviors (like buying gym weights) as terrorist threats, and the heartbreak of watching the U.S. retreat from its role as a global champion of human rights.Transnational Repression: How Beijing’s reach extends far beyond its borders, harassing dissidents on foreign soil and pressuring foreign governments to silence critics.Tune in to understand why the fight for human rights in China is inextricably linked to the national security of the United States and its allies.About the Guest:Yaqiu is a prominent researcher and activist who previously led China research at Human Rights Watch and Freedom House. She has testified before the U.S. Congress on issues ranging from internet censorship to women’s rights and continues to be a vocal advocate for the Chinese people despite personal risks.👉 Learn more about Yaqiu’s work on her web site👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is the global order collapsing, or can renewed American leadership still secure the Indo-Pacific? In Episode 127, Jim Carouso and Ray Powell sit down with Robert Blackwill, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former U.S. Ambassador to India, to dissect his provocative new report, “America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership”.Ambassador Blackwill argues that the United States faces its most dangerous international landscape since World War II. With a rising, authoritarian China determined to displace the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia, Blackwill contends that current competing strategies - from Restraint to Nationalism to “Trumpism” - are failing to meet the moment. Instead, he proposes a bold, hybrid grand strategy which he labels “Resolute Global Leadership”.We dive deep into what this strategy would mean for the future of the Indo-Pacific. Blackwill makes the controversial case for explicitly “containing” Chinese power and stopping the erosion of U.S. influence in the region. He offers a candid critique of the current administration’s “revolutionary” approach, warning that incoherent messaging is destroying allied trust and fueling dangerous debates about nuclear proliferation in capitals like Tokyo and Seoul.Key topics discussed:The China Challenge: Why Blackwill believes we must label China a “hostile peer competitor” and what “containment” actually looks like in the 21st century.Grand Strategy 101: Breaking down the failures of Liberal Internationalism and Primacy, and why a fusion of the two is necessary to survive.The Trump Factor: How a personalized, transactional foreign policy undermines extended deterrence and how allies can effectively push back.Restoring Trust: Can Washington rebuild credibility with partners like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines before it’s too late?The future direction of U.S. grand strategy will define the security and economy of the entire Indo-Pacific for decades. Tune in to understand why the stakes have never been higher.👉 Read the report: America Revived | Council on Foreign Relations👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

China’s embassy in Manila has launched an unprecedented public campaign against Philippine government officials. In this episode, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela - Beijing’s primary target - explains what’s at stake when foreign embassies publicly threaten democratic voices.The controversy began when Tarriela posted images from a student presentation featuring AI-generated caricatures of Xi Jinping. China’s embassy called it “attacking and smearing Chinese leaders” and a “serious violation of China’s political dignity.” Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador and demanded Tarriela “pay the price.” Tarriela refused to apologize, receiving backing from Philippine officials and strong public support - 94% of Filipinos support transparency efforts in the West Philippine Sea.Tarriela identifies three reasons behind Beijing’s escalation: the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 and transparency during regional meetings could expose Chinese actions to neighboring countries; China may want to influence the 2028 Philippine election by reducing focus on West Philippine Sea issues; and transparency prevents China from executing operations like illegal reclamation without immediate international scrutiny.He describes coordination between the Chinese embassy and online accounts that amplify Beijing’s messaging with identical talking points - evidence of organized information operations. Tarriela also addresses allegations that our co-host, the SeaLight Foundation’s Ray Powell, is a U.S. agent providing him with money and instructions, while explaining why Powell’s documentation of Chinese activities across Southeast Asia challenges Beijing’s narrative.Since Tarriela’s last podcast appearance in May 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have moved closer to Philippine shores, now operating near Pangasinan, Ilocos, Mindoro, and Bataan. Meanwhile, transparency efforts have achieved measurable results: Filipino awareness of West Philippine Sea issues has grown significantly, and international embassies that previously avoided naming China now publicly identify Chinese actions.Tarriela makes the case for deploying U.S. Coast Guard vessels rather than Navy warships to counter China’s gray-zone tactics, and explains why he continues speaking out despite personal attacks: “Standing up for our rights is the obligation of everybody. We owe this to our national heroes and to the next generation.”In the post-interview banter, Ray and Jim discuss how the Chinese embassy has also targeted Ray personally for SeaLight’s investigation into Chinese influence over Mandarin-language media outlets in the Philippines. They explore parallels with Australia’s experience combating similar influence operations and debate how democracies can balance freedom of the press with transparency about foreign funding and direction of media organizations.👉 Follow Jay Tarriela on X, @jaytaryela, or on LinkedIn👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0?In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss:• The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc.• The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation.• Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties.• The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy?Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you.Anuj Gupta leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn or on X, @anujg • Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook• Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight• Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn• Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios.Taiwan’s Internal Security CrisisCole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing.Taiwan Identity & Independence MovementsTaiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive.Hong Kong’s Cautionary TaleBeijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals.Chinese Cognitive Warfare SuccessWhile China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself.The Greatest Threat: Accidental EscalationCole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways.Taiwan’s Defense Strategy EvolutionTaiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally.Why Taiwan’s Democracy MattersCole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism.👉 Follow J. Michael Cole at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security.​In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year.​What Happened?India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy.​Strategic ConsequencesThe Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership.​Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state.​India’s FutureDespite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware.​Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated.👉 Follow James Crabtree on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 122, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Dr. Robert Burrell, retired US Marine Corps officer and irregular warfare specialist, and Colonel (Ret.) Michael Burgoyne, University of Arizona professor and former Army attaché in Mexico, to analyze the unprecedented US military operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The experts explore the operation’s implications for the Indo-Pacific, US foreign policy, and the international rules-based order.The Venezuela Operation: A New PrecedentBurrell and Burgoyne dissect the extraordinary special operations mission that extracted Maduro in just two and a half hours. The guests explain how three decades of authoritarian rule under Hugo Chávez and Maduro created a nexus between China, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in America’s hemisphere. The 2024 election, won by opposition candidate Edmundo González, was rigged by Maduro, prompting the Trump administration’s decisive action led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.Legal and Strategic ImplicationsThe discussion examines the operation’s framing as a law enforcement action under foreign terrorist organization designations - a controversial use of Article 2 presidential powers without Congressional authorization. Burgoyne warns this unilateral approach abandons post-WWII hemispheric cooperation frameworks like the Organization of American States Charter and the “Good Neighbor Policy,” returning instead to early 20th-century interventionism reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.Indo-Pacific ConnectionsThe experts draw critical parallels for Indo-Pacific allies who depend on international law and the rules-based order. Countries like Japan, the Philippines, and Australia may question US commitment to multilateral norms, while adversaries like China could exploit the precedent to justify their own unilateral actions. Brazil and other regional powers are already diversifying partnerships with China and BRICS nations, concerned about unpredictable US interventionism and trade policy.What Comes Next?With Maduro’s vice president maintaining control in Caracas and the regime apparatus intact, the guests outline scenarios ranging from peaceful opposition transition to Libya-style state collapse. They emphasize Venezuela’s complexity: three decades of corruption, transnational criminal organizations, and a population unfamiliar with democracy. Best-case scenarios require international cooperation and long-term US commitment - both uncertain given the operation’s unilateral nature.The episode concludes with sobering assessments about narrative control, regional stability, and whether this operation serves as prologue to regime change efforts in Cuba and Nicaragua.👉 Follow Rob Burrell on his web site, robertburrell.com, or at his Substack👉 Follow Mike Burgoyne on LinkedIn 👉 Follow the podcast on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Episode 121, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Craig Singleton, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former US diplomat, to examine Taiwan’s critical energy vulnerability and China’s gray zone coercion strategies. Singleton, co-author of FDD’s recent report “Maritime Protection of Taiwan’s Energy Vulnerability,” reveals how Taiwan’s mere 10-day supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) creates an Achilles heel Beijing could exploit without firing a shot - and why semiconductor supply chains, global economies, and US deterrence strategy all hang in the balance.Taiwan’s Energy Crisis: 10 Days to DisasterTaiwan imports 90% of its energy, with over half arriving by sea as LNG from suppliers who may be susceptible to PRC coercion. Through extensive war gaming featuring participants from Taiwan’s National Security Council, Japan, Australia and former Trump administration officials including Matt Pottinger, Singleton’s team discovered Taiwan would face “Sophie’s Choice” dilemmas within two weeks of a Chinese quarantine. The scenario revealed that energy companies would be pressured to comply with new and onerous requirements, while diplomatic pressure to reduce just one LNG shipment per week could trigger cascading blackouts and force Taiwan to choose between powering hospitals or semiconductor fabrication plants.​Quarantine vs. Blockade: The Gray Zone AdvantageSingleton explains the critical distinction between blockades - which carry international legal consequences and can activate UN responses - and quarantines, which exist in “squishy” legal territory that China deliberately exploits. During war gaming, Singleton playing Xi Jinping accomplished every objective without triggering US red lines by characterizing aggressive actions as “safety inspections” and “counter-piracy operations,” language already familiar from South China Sea operations. This asymmetric approach keeps American responses in “off” mode while systematically degrading Taiwan’s resilience through political warfare and disinformation campaigns.​Semiconductor Leverage and Allied ResponseWhen Taiwan’s war game participants announced they would cut power to TSMC to force international intervention, it represented a mic-drop moment - Taiwan exercising agency by threatening global semiconductor supply chains. The scenario exposed uncomfortable truths about allied commitment, with Japan able to weather the crisis due to substantial LNG reserves, while Australia’s involvement remained uncertain despite AUKUS commitments. Singleton argues classic deterrence models map poorly onto gray zone operations, and reestablishing deterrence after allowing coercion to proceed requires “outsized” responses that current political will may not support.​Solutions: From LNG Diversification to Nuclear ReactorsSingleton advocates for increased US LNG exports to Taiwan, enhanced energy storage through hardened mountain facilities and floating terminals, and reconsideration of small modular reactors (SMRs) at key government and military sites - potentially creating a deterrent effect against Chinese targeting due to nuclear fallout risks. The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act’s increase from $300 million to $1 billion in foreign military financing for Taiwan represents progress, but energy resilience remains the critical vulnerability China will exploit.👉 Follow Craig Singleton at the FDD or on X at @CraigMSingleton👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In this special year-end edition, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso reflect on a transformative 2025 in the Indo-Pacific, examining the dramatic shift from conventional diplomacy to hard power politics under the Trump 2.0 administration. The episode provides a comprehensive review of the podcast’s most impactful conversations, from national government leaders to topical experts, while analyzing the year’s major geopolitical developments.Trump 2.0 and the Hard Power PivotJim and Ray discuss how the year began with U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel’s appearance, marking the podcast’s first sitting ambassador interview. Following President Trump’s January inauguration, 2025 witnessed a fundamental reorientation of American Indo-Pacific policy away from soft power initiatives toward military deterrence and economic leverage through tariffs. They discuss how this approach disrupted established norms and international agreements, with potential Supreme Court challenges to executive power looming in 2026.China’s Gray Zone and Political Warfare CampaignsGray zone and political warfare emerged as a dominant theme, with a topical episode featuring the RAND Corporation’s Todd Helmus becoming the year’s most downloaded audio content. The hosts recall what they learned about China’s comprehensive political warfare strategy, which treats peacetime as a mere continuation of conflict through non-military means. Notable coverage included the extraordinary incident where two Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided near Scarborough Shoal, producing the year’s top video episode as Beijing’s propagandists struggled for four days to craft a narrative blaming the Philippines for a setback they couldn’t admit to.Regional Flashpoints and ConflictsThe podcast provided critical context for unexpected conflicts, including the India-Pakistan and Thailand-Cambodia border wars. These complex, multi-generational disputes were unpacked by regional experts like Indian strategic analyst Nitin Gokhale and former Cambodian Ambassador Pou Sothirak.The Trump-Modi Relationship UnravelsWhat began as a seemingly stable partnership deteriorated rapidly in 2025, with Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin providing blunt analysis of an unexpectedly cooling U.S.-India relationship. The Trump administration’s surprising pivot toward Pakistan represented a stunning reversal from Trump 1.0 policies, raising questions about Quad’s future effectiveness and regional security cooperation.Transnational Crime and Human TraffickingInvestigative reporting by the Washington Post’s Sue-Lin Wong exposed the exponential expansion and brutal reality of scam compounds across Myanmar, Cambodia and the Philippines, where human trafficking victims are forced into “pig-butchering” and cryptocurrency fraud operations. We also featured Washington Post reporter Rebecca Tan discussing the methamphetamine crisis fueled by Chinese precursor chemicals flowing through lawless Myanmar territories into markets across Asia.Historic Interviews and Podcast Milestones2025 brought unprecedented access, including interviews with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and the podcast’s first head-of-state guest, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr. Documentary filmmaker Baby Ruth Villarama also came on to discuss Beijing’s failed attempt to suppress her West Philippine Sea documentary, while North Korean defector Timothy Cho shared his harrowing escape story.​The hosts also recall the podcast’s experiments with live broadcasts covering Australia’s election results and China-Japan tensions.2026 OutlookMonthly listenership quadrupled in 2025, establishing the podcast as the leading Indo-Pacific affairs platform. As 2026 approaches, the hosts anticipate continued geopolitical turbulence, Supreme Court tariff decisions and evolving great power competition dynamics across the region.

In Ep. 119, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Justin Bassi, Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), to assess the health of the US-Australia alliance as it approaches its 75th anniversary in 2026. Bassi, a former National Security Advisor to the Australian Prime Minister, argues that while the institutional foundation of the alliance remains robust, we are living in the “most dangerous times since the end of World War II” - a reality that demands confidence, courage, and a doubling down on partnerships to counter the rising influence of China and Russia.Bassi frames the current geopolitical landscape as more precarious than the Cold War, driven by adversaries who believe the US-led order is in decline. He emphasizes that the alliance is not just a legacy of the past but a critical necessity for the future. For Australia, the “fear of abandonment” - a historical anxiety about great power withdrawal - remains a potent strategic driver. The response, Bassi argues, must be to demonstrate that the US and its allies can still compete, even dominate, and provide stability in the region.The hosts and Bassi discuss the recently concluded Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN). While the fact that the meeting occurred during a chaotic year - marked by US political transitions and Australian elections - is a success in itself, Bassi notes a potential “missed opportunity.” For the first time in recent memory, the meeting concluded without a joint press conference or a formal joint statement, replaced only by a fact sheet. Bassi explores whether this break in precedent signals mere logistical hurdles or deeper misalignments on specific policy nuances, particularly regarding China.Despite questions around messaging, the alliance is delivering substance. Bassi champions the value of increased US force posture initiatives in Australia, arguing that a larger American footprint is a net positive for regional stability. The trio also discuss the “implementation phase” of AUKUS, noting that the partnership has achieved bipartisanship across the US, UK, and Australia despite leadership changes in all three nations. Bassi describes AUKUS not as a short-term deal but as a “generational, hopefully forever” commitment that transcends individual administrations.Reflecting on the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, the group compares the current dynamic to the friction of the Trump 1.0 era, during which they all served in government roles together in Australia. Bassi contends that the alliance is institutionally “stronger than any government of the day.” He points to the smooth landing of recent AUKUS and critical minerals agreements as evidence that the ecosystem of defense and intelligence cooperation continues to thrive, regardless of leader-to-leader personalities.👉 In addition to his current role as Executive Director of ASPI, Justin Bassi previously served as the National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and as Chief of Staff to Foreign Minister Marise Payne. Follow him on LinkedIn or on X at @BassiJustin👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In this essential episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome two returning guests and leading strategic thinkers: retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan, author of “The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire,” and Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-host of the Net Assessment Podcast. Together, they dissect the Trump administration’s newly released National Security Strategy and its implications for U.S. alliances, Indo-Pacific security, and the evolving competition with China.​NSS Unveiled: Zack explains what the National Security Strategy (NSS) is - the connective tissue linking U.S. objectives to the ways and means of achieving them - while noting the internal contradictions and lack of central logic. Released with minimal fanfare in early December, this NSS marks a significant departure from conventional approaches to American global engagement.​Regional Winners and Losers: Mick offers his characteristically candid, “she’ll be right, mate” assessment, arguing that while Europe faces a much more civilizational challenge under this strategy, Indo-Pacific allies like Australia, Japan, and Taiwan emerge relatively intact. The document maintains U.S. commitment to the defense of the first island chain, though the beleaguered Philippines notably goes unmentioned.​Spheres of Influence and Inconsistencies: The experts dissect the document’s troubling embrace of spheres of influence - asserting U.S. primacy in the Americas while condemning Chinese ambitions in Asia. This contradiction, combined with transactional mercantilism replacing values-based alliances, signals a fundamental shift in American grand strategy.​The China Challenge: Both guests critique how the NSS reduces all of Asia to a China problem, ignoring critical issues in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. They explore China’s aggressive response to Japanese Prime Minister Takeuchi’s Taiwan comments and what Beijing’s gray zone operations reveal about testing U.S. resolve.​Deterrence and Taiwan: Zack warns that U.S. strategy focuses too narrowly on preventing a Taiwan amphibious invasion while neglecting China’s political warfare strategy. Mick emphasizes that Xi Jinping views Taiwan as a political problem, not primarily a military one, and may seek a grand bargain with President Trump.​Technology and National Security: The conversation addresses the controversial decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced H200 chips to China, which both view as a significant national security mistake that undermines the technology competition goals in the NSS.Congressional Pushback: The recently released National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes provisions constraining troop withdrawals from South Korea and other guardrails, reflecting bipartisan congressional frustration with lack of Pentagon consultation.​Episode 118 provides indispensable analysis for understanding how U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is developing under Trump 2.0, and why allies and adversaries alike are recalculating their positions in the world’s most dynamic and consequential region.👉 Follow Zack at AEI or on X, @ZackCooper👉 Follow Mick at Futura Doctrina or on X, @WarInTheFuture👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia

In Ep. 117, Washington Post Southeast Asia Bureau Chief Rebecca Tan joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss her investigative reporting on the massive surge of methamphetamines flooding the Asia-Pacific. While the U.S. remains focused on the fentanyl crisis, Tan explains how the same network of Chinese chemical manufacturers is simultaneously fueling a "meth tsunami" that is overwhelming law enforcement from Thailand to Australia.The Global SyndicateRebecca details how Chinese chemical companies—often the very same entities supplying Mexican cartels with fentanyl precursors—are shipping vast quantities of drug ingredients into Southeast Asia. Unlike the U.S. opioid crisis, the Asian market is being inundated with methamphetamine produced in Myanmar’s lawless borderlands. Tan explains that this is not a parallel problem but a singular, global supply chain rooted in China’s massive chemical industry.The New Golden TriangleThe conversation explores how drug production has shifted from mainland China to the "Wild West" of Myanmar’s Shan State. Following crackdowns by Beijing, criminal syndicates relocated to border areas controlled by ethnic militias like the United Wa State Army. Tan describes the surreal atmosphere of border towns like Tachilek, where casinos, scam compounds, and drug trafficking operations thrive under a distinct set of rules, shielded by the chaos of Myanmar's civil war.Geopolitics of PrecursorsA key takeaway is the geopolitical leverage Beijing holds over this trade. Tan notes that while China has the capacity to clamp down on these exports—as it does with critical minerals—it treats counternarcotics cooperation as a political bargaining chip. The hosts and Tan discuss the frustration of regional powers like Thailand and Australia, who lack the geopolitical weight of the U.S. to demand action from China, leaving them vulnerable to a flood of cheap, potent narcotics.👉 Follow Rebecca Tan’s reporting at The Washington Post and on X, @rebtanhs👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn or on Facebook.👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

In Ep. 116, Senator Todd Young of Indiana sits down with co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss why what happens in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and across the first island chain directly shapes America’s prosperity and national security. Senator Young, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer and one of the Senate’s leading voices on Indo-Pacific security, explains that he's championing the Ships for America Act and the HARPOON Act because he believes the U.S. cannot afford to turn inward in an era of intensifying competition with China.​Drawing on his experience from a recent visit to the Philippines, Senator Young describes a population that feels “under siege” as China’s coast guard and maritime militia harass commercial and fishing vessels, challenge Manila’s sovereign rights, and test U.S. treaty commitments in one of the world’s most dangerous sea lanes. He explains how the northern Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and the broader first island chain form a critical maritime corridor for global trade - and how Beijing’s push to control these waters could give it leverage over shipping, energy flows, and supply chains that Americans rely on every day.​Young walks through two signature legislative initiatives: the HARPOON Act, which equips the U.S. and its partners to push back against China’s illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and broader resource predation, and the Ships for America Act, which aims to revive U.S. commercial shipbuilding capacity from just a handful of ocean-going vessels per year to a resilient fleet able to support both peacetime commerce and wartime logistics. He highlights how allies such as South Korea and Japan can bring capital, technology, and best practices to U.S. shipyards while expanded training pipelines build the welders, skilled trades, and merchant mariners needed to crew and maintain a larger fleet.​The conversation also explores why the U.S. Coast Guard may be one of Washington’s most powerful but underutilized tools in countering China’s “gray-zone” activities, from illegal fishing to coercive law-enforcement-style operations far from China’s own shores. By combining Coast Guard authorities with new legislation and deeper capacity-building for regional partners, Young argues the U.S. can deter escalation, protect vital ocean resources, and help Indo-Pacific nations enforce their own laws in their own waters.​👉 Follow Sen. Young on his website or on X, @SenToddYoung👉 Follow the pod on X, @IndoPacPodcast, on LinkedIn, or on Facebook👉 Follow Ray on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific