Stop the World

Want 20 episodes of Black Mirror in a one hour podcast? You’ve come to the right place. After a big week in artificial intelligence—including news of Anthropic’s secret supercyberweapon—we’re joined by ASPI’s Fergus Ryan and Bethany Allen to talk about AI in China. Fergus and Bethany explain the findings of their recent report, The party’s AI: How China’s new AI systems are reshaping human rights. For the Chinese government, AI governance is regime governance. The team explain automation of the Chinese justice system and the implications for the rights of defendants; predictive law enforcement; “ambient censorship” which creates an immersive information environment tailored to party ideology; and surveillance using AI that enables authorities to track people’s momentary emotional reactions. They discuss embedding authoritarian values into the technology; the implications for countries importing those AI models—which are attractive because they are open source and therefore cheaper—and China’s determination to shape global AI standards in line with its non-democratic interests.Read the report 'The party's AI': https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-partys-ai-how-chinas-new-ai-systems-are-reshaping-human-rights/ To stay across developments in AI, technology and security, subscribe to ASPI's Cyber & Tech Digest: https://aspicts.substack.com/

Back by popular demand, Florence Gaub joins David Wroe to dissect the latest global developments. Florence is Director of Research at the NATO Defense College and an expert in strategic foresight. She shares her key takeaways on Iran and views on the state of NATO, and offers frank criticism of Europe’s underspending on defence and infrastructure. She discusses how the Iran conflict, following Ukraine and Covid, has underscored the interconnectedness of security, economics, geography, energy and politics. And she talks about interpreting weak signals, the idea of polycrisis, and the impact of fragile dependencies and choke points. Florence and Dave discuss Donald Trump and the challenges of forecasting when individuals as opposed to systems are the prevailing influence over policy. And they also have fun discussing the speculative newspaper ‘North Star’ that Florence and her colleagues released earlier this year for the Munich Security Conference - listen out for the elephants! You can find that newspaper here

The Iran war is shaping as an historic geopolitical moment. Regime change looks increasingly unlikely, with the United States—and possibly Israel—preparing to settle for grinding down Iran’s ability to pose an external threat. The majority of Iranian people who loathe the regime and advocates around the world pushing for freedom are preparing for disappointment. To talk through these perspectives, STW is joined today by Nos Hosseini, spokeswoman for the Iranian Women’s Association in Australia. Nos’s parents fled Iran when she was a small child. She now advocates for the rights of the Iranian people from Australia. Nos explains how she and most of the Iranian community see external pressure including military action as the most realistic way to bring down the regime, given the brutal crackdowns we’ve seen in the past against any uprising. She describes the horrors inflicted upon Iranians who stand up to the theocracy, the current political dynamics, and the options for countries like Australia to expand pressure through measures such as Magnitsky sanctions against human rights abusers. Nos also speaks frankly about her own family’s journey, the threats and intimidation they’ve endured, and the particular dehumanisation that is felt by Iranian women.

Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland spurred Europe to assert itself in ways it has never done before, says former Danish diplomat, national security adviser and top newspaper editor Bo Lidegaard. Six European NATO members went so far as to send troops to the autonomous island territory. Hot on the heels of European President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Australia to sign trade and security agreements, Bo joins Stop the World to talk about the parlous state of global affairs and how Australia and Europe can work together to shape events for the better. Europe lacks the defence industrial base, the energy security and the technology to truly back up its strong diplomatic posture, Bo says—at least for now. Closer cooperation with countries such as Australia are one way that Europe is expanding its strategic options. Pulling together the many strategic threads dominating global headlines, Bo talks discusses Russia’s war against Ukraine, global supply chain fragility, energy and climate change, European innovation and self reliance, and the Iran war’s turbocharging effect on other geostrategic trends.For more on the EU-Australia security and defence agreement, read ASPI's latest Explainer by Bart Hogeveen:https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-eu-australia-security-and-defence-agreement-not-a-pact-but-a-partnership/

David Wroe and ASPI executive director Justin Bassi discuss the prospects for steering the Iran war towards a tolerable end that means neither a years-long quagmire nor an abrupt closure that hands Tehran a tacit win.Three weeks in, the Strait of Hormuz is the keystone. How do the US and other countries reopen the key energy route and stop Tehran from holding it in perpetuity as leverage over an anxious world? What are the thresholds the US and Israel need to reach on destroying Iran’s military capacity, killing its leadership and curbing its nuclear program in order to declare mission accomplished?And whatever frustrations US partners might be feeling about Donald Trump’s “excursion”, how do we muster some semblance of democratic cooperation to signal to the world’s autocrats that the West can come together to confront global challenges?

Three weeks into Donald Trump’s “Epic Fury” operation in Iran, STW speaks with Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear strategy and non-proliferation expert who runs the Arms Control Wonk blog and directs the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute in California. Jeffrey and David discuss the difficulty of ending Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ strategy, the hovering spectre of regime change, and the degrading of Iran’s missile capabilities and possibility of their reconstitution. Jeffrey explains the challenge of locking down proliferation of an 80-year-old technology and his view that diplomacy and deterrence need to play hefty roles. And he discusses the culture and psychology of risk in nuclear deterrence in the 21st century. Finally Jeffrey gives his views on China’s nuclear expansion and the dangers that follow the end of the US-Russia New START arms control pact last month. Jeffrey has clear views that don’t always chase convention but are based on his own legwork analysing open source research such as images from commercial satellite pictures. Links: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

The war in Iran is being talked about as the first AI war. Every military on the planet is looking at how they adopt artificial intelligence at all levels from decision-making to controlling drones on the battlefield. Today, Michael Irwin, co-CEO of the Australian defence technology start-up Breaker, joins STW to explain where autonomous military technology is headed. Breaker makes software that allows military operators to coordinate teams of autonomous systems across air, land and sea by talking to them over a radio just like they’d talk to a human team. This enables one operator to control whole swarms of robots, even while he or she is flying a helicopter or assaulting a position. Michael explains how Breaker is applying its technology to intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, freeing up personnel to concentrate on higher level tasks. And he shares his views on the philosophy, principles and ethics of automation on the battlefield, arguing that while our adversaries such as China might have lower thresholds for automating the use of force, we can deploy automation wisely while keeping our moral principles.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna joins Stop the World for a conversation about Russia, Iran, the United States and the imperative for smaller countries such as Estonia and Australia to work together. Minister Tsahkna shares frank views from the perspective of his 1.3 million-strong NATO member nation, which borders Russia and is on track to spend 5 percent of its GDP on defence this year. “We’ll bring the war to Russia,” he says, as he calls for countries like Ukraine and Georgia to be embraced more fully into Europe lest they remain targets of Russian predation. He expresses support for the US campaign against Iran but also has some concerns about the signals being sent and the lack of clarity about objectives. He believes Trump is committed to European security if Europe accepts its share of the heavy lifting, and that Putin is ultimately more afraid of Donald Trump than he was of former Presidents Biden or Obama, but that Putin right now is “just playing with Trump” on Ukraine peace talks—indicating untapped potential in Trump’s leverage. As the world’s second largest processor of many rare earths and rare-earth batteries, Estonia can work with Australia to break China’s near-monopoly over these critical resources, he says. And seeking Australian support for a Nuremberg-style tribunal to bring accountability for Russian war crimes in Ukraine, he says shared values are central to closer cooperation.

Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine recently entered its fifth year—longer than the Soviet Union fought in World War Two. To discuss the state of the war and the peace negotiations we’re joined by Ukrainian MP Galyna Mykhailiuk, who headed a delegation of MPs last week to Australia.Galyna talks about Ukraine’s current position in negotiations, the outstanding differences over Russia’s excessive demand for territory and the vexed position for Kyiv of needing a referendum to make territorial concessions but the practical difficulty of holding such a referendum during war time. She discusses her own role as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s representative to the Parliament, political dynamics in Ukraine, the scope to increase sanctions and seize frozen assets in order to pressure Putin, and of course about the impact of the Iran conflict on Ukraine and its security.With Iran seizing current global headlines at the moment, we’ll keep covering global security broadly including Ukraine.

Today we speak about artificial intelligence and security with Lindsay Gorman, managing director and senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund’s Technology program, and a former senior tech and security adviser in the White House under President Joe Biden. Lindsay and David discuss the fight between the Pentagon and AI company Anthropic, the legitimate concerns of the military, and the Trump Administration’s terrible signal to tech companies that want to support national security. They talk about who should control this megapowerful technology in the future—the state or the private sector? They also cover the US-China tech race, Chinese innovation, authoritarian versus democratic governance of AI, disinformation and deepfakes, and the need for democracies to steer AI towards applications that value freedom and human agency.Mentioned in this episodeDavid Wroe's article on the Pentagon-Anthropic saga and who should control AI: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/pentagon-anthropic-brawl-demands-rethink-of-ai-industry/Looking to keep up with developments in AI and cyber? Subscribe to ASPI's Cyber and Tech Digest: https://aspicts.substack.com/subscribe

It’s a double-segment episode of STW today. Fresh from last week’s India AI Impact Summit in Delhi, Australia’s Assistant Minister for Science, Technology and the Digital Economy, Dr Andrew Charlton, speaks with us about artificial intelligence, the future of the Australian economy—including the future of work—and progress on international cooperation on AI.Then we hear from Maxwell Scott, co-founder and CTO of Strat Alliance Global, which helps companies and organisations integrate AI safely and lawfully. Max continues the conversation on the prospects for rising productivity, how AI might complement, enhance or replace certain human tasks, the near term limitations of AI models, comparisons to the Industrial Revolution, and the worry that keeps Max awake at night: the risk of deliberate misuse by rogue humans.Max, who recently visited Australia, also talks about AI opportunities and risks here, prospects for global cooperation and governance, and competing models for national regulation.Speech by Dr Andrew CharltonDave’s piece in the Australian Financial Review

Luke de Pulford is executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China – a cross-party network of parliamentarians from more than 40 countries who share concerns about Beijing’s behaviour at home and abroad. Luke, a human rights activist and anti-slavery advocate, recounts how the group came together in 2020, the challenges it faces and how it works to shift the centre of gravity on debates relating to Beijing’s punishment of critics and defiance of international norms. He talks about the challenges of holding China to account even as many countries drift away from taking principled stands, the impact of the United States’ retreat from leadership of the liberal order, and the need to be the squeakiest wheel when pushing human rights cases. He discusses the recent conviction and sentencing of businessman and democracy activist Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, Britain’s shifting position on China relations, and the dilemma for Australia—which counts 20 parliamentarians from the major parties as members of IPAC—in having an economy heavily invested in China and a security strategy invested in the US.

It’s STW’s 100th episode, so we had to make it a good one! Enter former Biden White House adviser Mira Rapp-Hooper, one of the sharpest minds around on Indo-Pacific Strategy. Mira served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania in Joe Biden’s National Security Council. She’s the author of two books and is now a visiting fellow at Brookings. She gives her thoughts on Donald Trump’s China strategy and the unlikely prospects for a grand bargain; the strategic options for US allies such as Australia and Japan; the fallacy of seeing Washington’s unreliability as a reason to move closer to China; Xi Jinping’s plans for Taiwan and the dependability of US support to the democratic island. And the big question: what happens to US grand strategy after Donald Trump? Can the US start afresh and help build a new international order that serves the interests of all nations?

Shashank Joshi is the Economist’s revered Defence Editor. He has deep strategic understanding combined with a rare gift for explaining things clearly. In today’s snappy half-hour episode of STW, Shashank shares his concerns about the future of democracy in the United States, the implications for the rest of the world, and the question of any emerging “Trump doctrine” from the US President’s international interventions. He talks about the impact of Trump’s short and sharp military operations without lengthy entanglements, his options on Iran, the significance of Europe’s firm stand against Trump over Greenland at Davos—which Shashank attended—the deep uncertainty as to Donald Trump’s overarching strategy towards China and the latest military purge by Xi Jinping. A key takeaway is the notion of derisking, which has traditionally applied to countries’ relationships with China but now is being discussed with respect to the US. As Shashank puts it, countries are having to think about a “ruthless purging of the sentimentality” in their US relationships

It’s been a hectic start to the year in international affairs: Greenland, Davos, Minnesota and more. Canada’s Mark Carney has delivered the last rites to the international rules-based order. NATO has settled back into a nervous simmer after Donald Trump escalated his demands to own Greenland only to back off. Again the question arises: can Europe strengthen itself to a point of security self-reliance and perhaps even form the foundation for a new liberal world order? For our first episode for 2026, David Wroe caught up with Constanze Stelzenmueller, expert on trans-Atlantic security, Fritz Stern Chair and a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, to discuss these questions and more. Constanze gives her thoughts on Carney’s Davos speech as well as NATO head Mark Rutte’s dismissal that Europe can defend itself without the US. She talks about the difficulties with an independent nuclear deterrent, political dynamics in Europe — including with the far right — and ways for Europe to work around Brussels bureaucracy. Constanze finishes with some reflections from a brilliant short piece she wrote about Germany’s lessons on three-way dependencies on Russia, China and the US, as part of a series about Vladimir Putin’s notorious 2007 speech to the Munich Security Conference.Links:The Munich Security Conference’s volume on Putin’s 2007 speech: https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/out-now-selected-key-speeches-volume-iii/The Steady State’s paper, “Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline,” https://substack.com/home/post/p-176315953

The Bondi massacre of Jews celebrating the first night of Hanukkah on Sunday was the worst terrorist attack Australia has suffered on home soil and its first mass shooting in nearly three decades. With 15 innocent people murdered, Australia’s Jewish community is in deep mourning, while the nation and the world have been jolted into a stark conversation about antisemitism.In the final Stop the World episode for 2025, David Wroe speaks with John Coyne, Director of ASPI’s National Security Program and Chris Taylor, Head of ASPI’s Statecraft and Intelligence Policy Centre about the shockwaves the attacks has prompted—and the equal sense of inevitability to which many Jewish leaders are pointing, citing their insistent warnings over the past two years that antisemitic hatred was growing in intensity.David, John and Chris discuss the Albanese government’s response—and responsibility—the pathway from unchecked antisemitic rhetoric to violence, the idea of “moral” versus practical political leadership, the need for greater civic respect and virtue beyond daily politics, and the national security and social lessons Australia must learn, including Chris’s early call—since echoed by others—for a Royal Commission into the circumstances of the terrorist attack.

Today we continue the AI theme with a TSD Summit Sessions conversation on China and AI with Selina Xu, who leads China and AI research and strategic initiatives in the Office of Eric Schmidt. Who is winning the AI race between the US and China? Are they focusing on the same things? Where do China’s capabilities stand today? How is AI being adopted and integrated into economies? What are the benefits of China’s open-source approach? Where does the US maintain a strategic advantage?  These are just some of the questions David Wroe tackles with Selina in today’s interview. This podcast really covers a lot of ground, and is a must listen for anyone interested in the development of artificial intelligence and why it matters who is leading the development. It is also timely given the US Administration’s decision this week to allow Nvidia to sell more powerful chips to China, which will likely impact key areas in which Selina says the US has a current advantage, in particular in the field of compute.  If you want more regular updates on cyber and tech issues, subscribe to ASPI’s Daily Cyber and Tech Digest via https://aspicts.substack.com/

In the first Summit Sessions interview post-Sydney Dialogue, David Wroe speaks with leading global AI safety expert, Dr Roman Yampolskiy. Roman is founding director of the Cyber Security Lab at the University of Louisville, and author of many books including “AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable”.This week, ASPI convened the fourth Sydney Dialogue summit on critical technologies and security, and AI featured heavily across the two days. So we’re bringing some of that discussion to the pod this week. The conversation covers many aspects of AI safety and risks, including the issue of control, and whether we should be continuing apace in our pursuit of superintelligence if we don’t know how to control the technology. They also discuss the recent Genesis Mission announcement coming out of the US, the opportunities that AI presents and how they can be leveraged safely and the big questions on everyone’s minds - will AI make us happy? Or will it control us?

One of the hottest topics in the world is data centres. Demand for the computing power needed to drive modern economies and societies, especially with artificial intelligence, is climbing steeply. Cloud computing services, often provided by big tech firms known as hyperscalers, supply a lot of this power.In today’s episode, Microsoft’s regional vice president for corporate external and legal affairs in Asia, Mike Yeh, talks about the strategic importance of cloud computing and of turning critical data into national assets. Increasingly, the ability to access and process data effectively is a significant strategic commodity that will help determine the strength of nations.Mike discusses the meaning of digital “sovereignty”, the use of spreading risk so that a country doesn’t find itself cut off from computing power or from its own data. He talks about the energy demands of computing, the value of digitising and structuring data, the security considerations of cloud computing, Ukraine’s experience with data, and the relationship between strategic competition and rival cloud services in the Indo-Pacific region. He also covers the cybersecurity challenges of cooperation between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, and levels of social trust in AI in the Indo-Pacific. Once you’re done listening folks, don’t forget to check out the Sydney Dialogue website.

The Sydney Dialogue (TSD) is just weeks away! If you haven't yet registered, head on over and do so now: https://tsd.aspi.org.au/enquire In the second episode of TSD Summit Sessions, David Wroe speaks to Anduril co-founder and CEO Brian Schimpf. This is an episode for our defence wonks - Brian talks about the need to build capabilities quickly, affordably and in ways that mean it can be built using a country's existing industrial capacity for years to come. He also talks about deterrence, using Ukraine and Taiwan as real time examples, and the need for companies to be on the side of liberal democracies, and to be thinking about the long-term strategic needs of liberal democracies.And, of course, the conversation also covers autonomy and artificial intelligence, the need to keep human decision making in the loop and what human-machine teaming looks like. It's a great conversation that covers a lot of ground, and provides an excellent lead-in to the discussions that will be had at TSD on 4-5 December in Sydney.