Ned Davis Research: See the Signals Podcast

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the current state of the global economy. The global economy showed continued signs of accelerating momentum. However, successive gains in the PMI usually don’t last much longer than six months, suggesting that the composite could take a short breather soon. One standout continues to be India. India’s economy has been one of the most reliable sources of growth among the world’s largest economies for a couple of years now.

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Japan has effectively ended Negative Interest Rate Policy, while central banks in Latin America and Switzerland have been easing. Historically, the best period for equities has been when more than half of the world’s central banks have been in easing cycles. However, the bullish case for equities may depend on whether the Fed pivots to easing.

In this episode, in honor of International Women’s Day and Women’s History Month, Amy Lubas, NDR's VP of Investment Solutions interviews Alejandra Grindal, NDR's Chief Economist who discusses trends by women in the labor force. She notes that female participation in the prime age labor force has soared all over the world, outpacing that of males. In the U.S., there has been a notable surge in participation among Millennial women, who spend more and differently than their male counterparts. The rise in Millennial female participation should have positive implications for the economy and equities in the long-term. ________________________ S1:E9 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold discusses the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle on the markets. Ed reviews the four-year cycle's strongest and weakest periods, how the market may behave this year depending on the election's outcome, and which industries and sectors to watch. _________________________________________ S1:E8 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses whether the global economy is on the verge of recession. The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating as we start 2024. Alejandra notes that the weight of the evidence points to a low risk of global recession, as only one indicator in NDR’s Global Recession Watch report is giving a negative signal. S1:E6 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the potential for a soft landing versus no landing. Although recent data have reflected an overheating economy, the soft-landing scenario, of below-trend economic growth and continued disinflation, is more likely as the delayed impact of tight monetary policy, ebbing excess pandemic savings, rising consumer delinquencies, and political risk at home and abroad weigh on output this year. A soft-landing scenario of slow growth and low inflation is consistent with above average equity returns. _____________________________ S1:E6 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal provides her 2024 outlook for the global economy. Many of the downside factors that affected the second half of 2023 to persist. As a result, we estimate 2.7% real GDP growth in the global economy in 2024 and assign a 35% probability of a severe global recession. Overall, the inflation path is moving in the right direction, but inflation rates are likely to remain slightly above central bank targets by the end of the year. The U.S. is projected to grow between 1-1.5%, China to expand at 4.5%, and Europe likely to slip into a mild recession. ____________________________________ S1:E5 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal contrasts the economic divergence between China and India. Near-term, China’s economy is slowing after a short-lived pandemic reopening rebound early in the year, while India is seeing broad-based gains in economic activity. Longer-term, reforms introduced in India prior to the pandemic, coupled with deglobalization trends away from China, should benefit India’s long-term growth potential. However, India still has quite a bit to do before it can unleash its full economic potential. _______________________ S1:E4 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode of See the Signals, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the tailwinds and headwinds within the U.S. economy. She also analyzes the impact on the credit markets. Overall, the weight of evidence continues to suggest that a soft landing is the more likely scenario for the U.S. economy. ___________________________ S1:E3 For more insights, visit our blog at https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the unexpected demographic upside from the pandemic. Among major economies, flexible work weeks and days worked from home have become a norm, which has led to a soaring labor force participation rate among females. With greater female labor force participation being associated with more elevated birth rates among developed economies, this latest trend has positive implications for potential real GDP growth and the long-term outlook for the stock market. ________________________________________ S1:E2 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In her latest global economic research note, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal analyzed strong divergences within the global economy. In particular, she found growing risks within China and Europe, but a more optimistic outlook for the U.S., Japan, and India. __________________________________ S1:E1 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠