Claim OwnershipDairy Insights: Heard Mentality
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Description
Dairy prices are driven by global supply and demand factors, you can’t truly understand what is happening in any dairy market unless you understand what is happening globally. In this podcast dairy market analysts and brokers from our global team breakdown what is happening in the U.S., EU, Oceania and Asian markets to help make sense of your local market.
47 Episodes
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We held our annual EU outlook conference in Dublin Ireland last week and the sentiment was very bearish for the European dairy market. The supply side has received a lot of attention, but demand also seems to be softening. I talk to John Lancaster about the conference and supply and demand dynamics.
Summary: The CME spot butter price fell 17% during August hitting the lowest levels of 2025. I talk with Dave Kurzawski about the declines in butter and whether cheese prices are next.
Summary: We've seen OTC cheese and butter prices for the fourth quarter drop about 10% from their recent highs as milk production in Europe, and elsewhere, turns out better than expected and demand may be softening. Fearghal McCabe talks about the EU market and whether we'll see prices rebound as buyers come back from summer holidays.
GDT results last week were mixed with AMF prices up but butter prices down and WMP prices counter seasonally increasing. Nate Donnay talks with Niall Alsafi about GDT and what is driving the divergent price action.
We can now add Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) to the list of diseases impacting dairy cows in Europe along with Bluetongue and Foot and Mouth (FMD). John Lancaster shares details on the discovery of LSD in late June, the spread since then and what we should expect going forward.
CME spot cheese and butter prices have rallied almost 40 cents a pound and 30 cents a pound from their recent lows to their peaks last week. Dave Kurzawski joins me to talk about the market move and what is driving it.
We've seen a significant rally in U.S. spot cheese and future prices and some significant strength in deferred EU OTC prices. Desmond Strelzow joins me to talk about the EU market and I talk through the drivers behind the U.S. strength and where I think the market is going.
EEX butter futures have been trending a little lower, but every time they dip, buyers seem to show up. We've seen a similar pattern for cheese but EEX SMP has been on a straight trend lower. I talk to Fearghal McCabe about the EU markets and whether they can stay at a big premium to the U.S.
YiFan Li comes on to talk about the strength we've seen in GDT/SGX prices and NBS data suggesting milk production in China was up 1.7% during the first quarter.
This week I talk to Dave Kurzawski about the U.S. spot and futures markets and the impact that tariffs or threats of tariffs have had.
During March there were 2 new cases of FMD in Hungary and 5 new ones in Slovakia. Florian Hildebrand joins me to discuss the spread of FDM and what we know about the impacts on the dairy markets.
A second case of foot and mouth disease has been discovered in Europe and John Lancaster discusses what he saw and heard around weather and milk production in New Zealand and a partnership we have to bring a focus on margins and hedging to NZ dairy farmers.
We got a pulse check on global dairy demand with Gulfood and the ONIL tender last week. It's not time for the defibrillator yet, but things aren't great.
NFDM and SMP prices across the major dairy exporters were all lower this week. Alfredo Resendiz Rojo has been in contact with buyers and traders of NFDM in Mexico and gives his view of the market.
We've seen choppy but downward trending price action in EEX butter and SMP futures. Fearghal McCabe comes on to talk about what he is seeing in the EU dairy markets.
The annual IDFA Dairy Forum took place this week with record attendance and plenty of talk about the dairy markets. Kyle Schrad shares his take aways and thoughts on the recent rally in corn futures.
GDT prices were up this week, Chinese imports for December were stronger than expected and government statistics suggest Chinese milk production was down 9.1% in Q4. YiFan Li was in China two weeks ago and comes on to talk about it all.
Foot and Mouth Disease has been detected in Germany which has both supply and demand implications for the dairy markets globally. John Lancaster and Aurelien Houitte join me to talk about what we know and what the implications are.
Milk production in California during November was down 9.2% from last year which was a record decline. Dave Kurzawski talks about impacts for the markets and some big picture predictions for 2025.
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