The Politics Guys

In this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode, Mike and Michael discuss the first New Rule of Politics (which is also an old rule of politics): follow the money. Mike contends that money is the most visible and measurable driver of political incentives, arguing that while it rarely buys votes outright, it is essential for viability and influence. Mike emphasizes how campaign finance evolved into a system where legal, structural incentives prioritize access and donor influence over outright corruption, while Michael highlights how massive spending, small-donor dynamics, and technological targeting reinforce polarization and keep the system escalating. The guys close with the practical implications: money signals who is viable, shapes which issues get attention, and determines who gets access to policymakers. Mike argues that donors—especially large ones—buy influence rather than outcomes, while Michael underscores that even well-intentioned politicians are constrained by these incentives, leaving ordinary citizens with limited direct influence. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike talks about the Explain Like I'm 5 podcast. I hope you will enjoy this excellent show as much as we do.

Mike and Russ open with a discussion of the ongoing U.S.–Israel war with Iran, focusing on rising costs, limited military capacity, and unclear strategic objectives. Mike frames the conflict as a mix of presidential preference for displays of strength and structural constraints, while Russ argues the war exposes a disconnect between public opinion and foreign policy, emphasizing skepticism of regime change and questioning whose interests are actually being served. Next, they turn to the Illinois primary elections, highlighting progressive Lieutenant Governor Julianna Stratton’s Senate primary win and the mixed results for progressive candidates in House races amid heavy outside spending. Mike sees the results as favoring institutionally backed “pragmatic progressives” and boosting Governor Pritzker’s national profile, while Russ views the outcomes as evidence of growing grassroots progressive momentum despite financial disadvantages and electoral losses. The guys close with a broader reflection on political incentives and public perception, with Mike emphasizing how narratives around voter fraud can be politically useful regardless of factual basis, and Russ warning that the success of such narratives points to deeper issues in political literacy and the ability of leaders to shape reality for their supporters. Check out the Future of Our Former Democracy podcast The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Ken unlock Jay’s the Federalist Papers' No 2 - 5.  In this episode, the pair examine how Jay envisioned a unified nation's path to peace, strength, and global influence. Topics include Jay’s Hobbesian vision and perspective of a war where decentralized American states invites chaos, while a united America deters foreign aggressors from Europe. The hosts also overview Jay’s views on the need for a singular national identity and how he saw a powerful national government as being more likely to obey international law. Join Trey and Ken as they explore the details of why Jay was in favor of a strong, centralized leadership to secure America’s future internationally. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Trey and Ken delve into Iran's leadership transition and the strategic impact of recent U.S. and Israeli military actions. They explore the internal dynamics of Iran's regime and the role of Jared Kushner's shadow diplomacy in escalating tensions, potentially sparking new conflicts with Cuba. The discussion shifts to domestic terrorism, examining links to recent radicalized attacks on U.S. soil and debating the potential necessity of reopening the DHS amid heightened security risks. The episode concludes with an analysis of Trump's legislative strategy, focusing on the implications of the Save America Act. The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Trey’s Substack on the Federalist Papers Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this preview of the midweek supporters' exclusive show, Mike and Michael introduce The New Rules of Politics, a new series aimed at explaining modern American politics through incentives, institutions, and systemic dynamics rather than personalities. Mike argues that many traditional ways of interpreting politics no longer work because the broader environment—especially technology, media, and political rules—has changed faster than the institutions governing politics can adapt. The conversation explores how structural factors such as low-turnout primaries, the nationalization of politics, changes in media business models, and the growing influence of money in campaigns shape who succeeds in politics and how they behave once in office. They also discuss declining public trust in institutions, the possibility that figures like Donald Trump are products of modern political incentives rather than unique anomalies, and the difficulty of meaningful constitutional or institutional reform in an era of deep polarization. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Michael open with a discussion of the widening U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran and the debate over whether President Trump’s military action constitutes a limited campaign or the start of a broader regional war. Mike argues the strike is risky but legally permissible under the War Powers Resolution and sees multiple plausible rationales for it, while Michael contends it amounts to an illegal war that bypassed Congress and risks unintended consequences both geopolitically and domestically.  Next, the guys analyze the first major signals from the 2026 midterm cycle after primaries in Texas and North Carolina and consider whether Democrats could plausibly take back the Senate. Michael argues the expanding map and several competitive races suggest the Senate may genuinely be in play for Democrats, while Mike is more skeptical and sees something like a 50–50 Senate as the best realistic outcome for Democrats, noting the growing number of Republican retirements as a strong indicator that Democrats are very likely to capture the House. They close with a look at President Trump’s firing of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and the surprising decision to nominate Senator Markwayne Mullin as her replacement. Michael argues Noem’s removal followed mounting scandals and leadership failures, but warns Mullin’s appointment signals an unserious approach to governing, while Mike suggests Trump prioritizes loyalty and public messaging over managerial competence in choosing high-profile cabinet figures.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Trey open this supporters' exclusive midweek episode with President Trump’s Defense Production Act order boosting domestic glyphosate production amid lawsuits and MAHA backlash, with Mike arguing that the weight of scientific evidence does not support typical-use carcinogen claims while warning against reflexive “chemicals are toxins” thinking, and Trey emphasizing the real policy tension between potential health risks and the massive food price shocks that would follow an abrupt ban, especially given agricultural and national security dependencies.  Next, they examine the whistleblower complaint involving DNI Tulsi Gabbard and the White House’s executive privilege claim, with Trey skeptical of shielding information already deemed non-credible by inspectors general and questioning why even the Gang of Eight cannot review it, and Mike arguing that the privilege rationale is strained and reflects a broader pattern of prioritizing loyalty over institutional competence in key national security roles.  After that, the guys dig into the Supreme Court’s USPS immunity ruling, with Mike contending that the majority stretched ordinary meanings of “loss” and “miscarriage” to create what amounts to a blanket shield against intentional non-delivery claims, and Trey arguing the decision ignores statutory context and undermines accountability—particularly troubling given allegations of racially motivated mail withholding in the underlying case.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Trey open with a breakdown of President Trump’s State of the Union address, focusing on the political strategy behind the speech and what it signals about governing priorities in a divided environment. Mike argues that the address was less about persuasion and more about consolidating partisan narratives, while Trey contends that the more revealing story was how much of the address leaned on grievance and spectacle Next, the guys turn to the Supreme Court’s ruling blocking the administration’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs, unpacking the majority and dissenting arguments and what it means for executive power in trade policy. Mike makes a case for the dissenters' position, while Trey argues that the practical impact may be limited because the administration can pivot to other trade statutes and keep much of its tariff agenda alive. After that, they discuss the Pentagon’s threat to label Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” exploring the tension between national security control and private-sector AI development. Mike raises concerns about how broadly the designation could be used to pressure firms into compliance, while Trey highlights the practical question of how dependent the Defense Department and its contractors have already become on frontier AI systems. The guys close by reflecting on how these three stories—presidential messaging, judicial constraint, and AI leverage—illustrate an ongoing struggle over institutional power in an era of rapid technological and geopolitical change. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 9 Habeas Corpus Bills of Attainder Ex Post Facto Laws, The Emoluments Clause ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week’s supporters’ exclusive midweek show, Justin and Trey continue their examination of political ideologies. This week, they dive into nationalism and its more extreme version, facism. They cover the definition of a nation and a national identity empirically, before exploring what a nationalist believes as an ideology.  The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support atpatreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Trey and Justin open with a deep discussion of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 Munich Security Conference speech. Trey argues that the speech fits into a Huntington Clash of Civilizations modality, which while it unites with Europe attacks the larger evils of the other. Both hosts dive into what Western Civilization means, why it isn’t a bad thing, but why it is important to be careful in drawing good guys and bad guys into civilization conversations. Next, the guys turn to Learning Resources v. Trump, or the Supreme Court’s rebuke of Trump’s tariffs. Trey comes in hot and argues that the minority opinion’s view, especially Justice Thomas, completely misunderstands the Constitution and elevates the problematic unitary theory of the executive view of the presidency. Justin believes that the Trump administration will simply bring forward the tariffs again. Both hosts agree that the president’s comments after the ruling are troubling. After that, they move to discussing the death of Jesse Jackson. Here, they focus not only on his legacy but what this means for the future of civil rights and the underlying changes to political protest in the age of social media. They close with an in-depth discussion of Iran’s attempted closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing U.S. pressure on Iran. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 8 Taxing and Spending The 16th Amendment The 3/5th Compromise ⁠⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠⁠ or⁠⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Ken open this supporters’ exclusive midweek episode with a look at TrumpRx, a government-branded prescription drug discount portal. Mike points out that it offers real savings on certain high-cost drugs and signals a willingness to confront pharmaceutical pricing, but suggests it may function more as a Big Pharma marketing funnel than structural reform. Ken contends it risks undermining insurance markets, misdirects consumers from systemic solutions like negotiation or single-payer leverage, and may create perverse incentives while doing little beyond what private platforms already offer. Next, the guys turn to new post–SFFA admissions data showing declines in Black and Hispanic enrollment at Ivy Plus schools alongside gains at flagship state universities. Mike wrestles with whether racial underrepresentation at elite institutions signals enduring structural inequities and questions the sincerity of diversity commitments given the persistence of legacy admissions. Ken argues the legal reasoning of the Court is more flawed than the policy debate itself, maintains that diversity judgments should rest with institutions rather than courts, and questions whether elite credentials are as economically decisive as commonly believed. They close by examining a survey forecasting American decline by 2036, including rising Chinese economic dominance, democratic backsliding, nuclear proliferation, and continued U.S. military primacy. Mike sees plausible warning signs but also considers whether AI leadership could entrench U.S. dominance in a new way. Ken cautions against straight-line extrapolation, doubts that AI’s transformative impact is settled, and notes that military strength alone may not sustain global influence. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike and Ken open with the end of ICE’s “Operation Metro Surge” in Minneapolis, a federal judge’s masking ruling, and a looming DHS shutdown, framing the debate over whether the administration’s hardline immigration tactics are enforcement or political theater. Mike argues the surge squandered a politically strong issue by embracing heavy-handed tactics that hurt Trump in the polls and likely achieved little lasting cooperation, while Ken contends the real aim was to intimidate blue-state critics and that, on that metric, the operation failed. Next, the guys turn to the House vote rebuking Trump’s Canada tariffs and the Supreme Court’s delay in the expedited tariff case. Mike sees the narrow GOP defections as limited but symbolically notable and remains skeptical that the Court would uphold most of the tariffs after oral argument, while Ken suggests the delay likely signals a forthcoming decision striking at least some tariffs and possibly reflects complex remedy questions—or even quiet political timing. They close with a look at Attorney General Pam Bondi’s combative House testimony and broader changes at DOJ in Trump’s second term. Mike emphasizes the erosion of professional norms, mass departures of career attorneys, and a personalized pardon process as evidence of politicization, while Ken argues structural moves like Schedule F reclassification and the dismantling of internal guardrails amount to a deliberate fusion of partisan politics with federal law enforcement. Mike presents what he believes to be the strongest MAGA defense of Trump’s DOJ overhaul—that prior Democratic administrations politicized the department and that stronger presidential control enhances accountability. Ken counters that long-standing norms of relative independence have served the public well and that today’s changes risk normalizing corruption rather than correcting bias. Check out Mike’s recent appearance on Bill Cancel’s BoricuaBC2 podcast (YouTube, Apple Podcasts) The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Politics Guys analyze the U.S. Constitution. In this episode, they focus on: Article I, Section 8 Necessary and Proper Clause United States' National Bank Controversy ⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠X⁠⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠⁠Sustainable Planet⁠⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠⁠ or⁠⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠⁠ The Democracy Group⁠⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this supporter’s exclusive midweek show, Trey and Mike open with a discussion of the U.S.-India trade deal. The discussion focuses on the relationship to the potential deal and its effects on Russia. Trey argues that current fiscal policy is well outside the empirical truth understood by the most recent scholarship, and Mike wonders if a deal will ever occur. Next, they discuss the unusual Trump vs. Trump case where Trump is suing the IRS for $ 10 billion. Trey argues that if Trump was serious about the injury, he would have sued for just $1. Mike tries to come at it from the point of view of MAGA and argues that many would rather see President Trump with $10 billion rather than the state. They close the show discussing the way in which the EPA is shifting from using a calculation of the value of human life. Trey argues the measure isn’t perfect, but it helps us understand and quantify the effects. Mike largely agrees, but understands the fuzzy nature of the metric currently used. ⁠Read Trey’s Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠Sustainable Planet⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this weekend episode, Trey and Mike discuss the recent government shutdown and budget negotiations, focusing on the implications of Democratic proposals regarding ICE and law enforcement. Mike argues that Democrats have a fine opening bid, but their list is not going to get met. Trey agrees, but they disagree deeply over what ought to be implemented. Trey is firmly for the unmasking of ICE agents along with true warrants. Mike believes the dangers to ICE agents outweigh libertarian and liberal ideals. Next, they dive into so-called midterm election integrity with a focus on the Save America Act and the Make Elections Great Again (MEGA) Act. Here, Trey is more sympathetic to compromise and the need for ID’s in elections, but Mike worries that ICE agents even being threatened will decrease voter turnout. Trey counters that if that is the case, then it is time to push for more ICE reform. They end the show discussing the Epstein-related document dump, the remaining redactions, and the fundamental problem of elite accountability. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what’s broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the second episode of The Politics Guys Present, Trey and Ken tackle the Preamble to the U.S Constitution, plus dive into Article I, Section 1, 2 and 3. Topics include: The purposes of the Constitution An overview of the U.S. House An overview of the U.S. Senate ⁠Read Trey's Substack for a deep dive into the Federalist Papers⁠ The Politics Guys on ⁠Facebook⁠ | ⁠X⁠ Check out the excellent ⁠Sustainable Planet⁠ podcast. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at⁠patreon.com/politicsguys⁠ or⁠ politicsguys.com/support⁠. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of⁠ The Democracy Group⁠, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mike, Trey, and Russ open with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech arguing that the rules-based international order has ruptured and that middle powers should loosen their reliance on U.S. hegemony. Mike frames the debate around the long-term benefits versus short-term costs of American dominance, Trey agrees with Carney’s realist diagnosis but rejects his prescription to abandon liberal institutions, and Russ emphasizes the symbolic importance of a Western leader openly challenging U.S. power even if the material constraints make real independence unlikely. Next, the guys turn to the Trump administration’s plans to use AI in government, from Google’s Gemini drafting DOT regulations to the Pentagon exploring AI-assisted battlefield decision-making. Mike distinguishes between limited gains from AI-generated draft rules and much deeper risks from long-term dependence on private AI models, Trey focuses on the danger of outsourcing judgment rather than using AI as a narrow tool, and Russ argues that autonomous decision-making represents a disturbing further distancing of humans from moral responsibility, especially in warfare. Canadian PM Mark Carney’s Davos Speech (video and transcript) The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices