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“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to advance U.S. global economic leadership during times of geopolitical turbulence.
Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts.
This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.
Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts.
This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.
46 Episodes
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Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, and whether this strategy is more politically viable than perhaps it should be, at least in the short term. Tom is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former senior director of strategic planning at the NSC under the Biden Administration.
Thomas Wright, "What If ‘America First’ Appears to Work?”, The Atlantic
Dan Wang, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future
In a bonus episode this week, we're sharing an episode of the great Geoeconomic Competition podcast hosted by Francesca Ghiretti, director of the RAND Europe China Initiative and a research leader at RAND Europe. Geoff was a recent guest on the podcast to discuss Trump's tariffs and the future of US trade policy.
Listen to the Geoeconomic Competition podcast here.
Derisky Business is off next week for Thanksgiving, with episodes returning the following week.
Kathleen Claussen, Professor of Law at Georgetown University, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the SCOTUS case on Trump's tariffs. They share their insights from the recent SCOTUS hearing, explore possible outcomes of the case, and lay out how the Trump administration will likely respond if some or all of the tariffs are struck down. Plus, Kathleen shares why she's not placing any Polymarket bets on the case's outcome.
Kathleen Claussen and Timothy Meyer, “The Foreign Commerce Power,” California Law Review, forthcoming, Duke Law School Public Law & Legal Theory Series No. 2025-44, August 24, 2025
Oral Arguments before the Supreme Court on the Legality of IEEPA Tariffs
International Economic Law and Policy Blog
Derisky Business is returning for season 2! After a brief hiatus in which obviously nothing (nothing!) notable happened in the world of trade and economic security, Emily and Geoff are back to dive into all your favorite economic security topics. In their first episode back, they are joined by Peter Harrell, the host of the "Security Economics" podcast, to discuss the concept of economic security agreements and why the U.S. should start bringing economic security priorities like export controls into formal trade deals.
Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity-How America Can Foster Economic Security”, Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, “Launch Economic Security Agreements” in CNAS Report: The First 100 Days
Peter Harrell, “How Trump’s trade agreements can reduce US and allied economic ties with China”, Journal of International Economic Law, July 2, 2025
Geoffrey Gertz, Analysis of the new US-Malaysia trade agreement, LinkedIn
We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on vacation, Geoff is joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow and Managing Director of Garnaut Global Liza Tobin to dig into how we got to this point, if this arrangement is even legal, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China tech competition.
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “Trump Just Handed China the Tools to Beat America in AI”, The Free Press, August 11, 2025
Chris Miller, “China has its own concerns about Nvidia H20 chips”, Financial Times, August 11, 2025
Charles Rollet, “China's military tried to buy Nvidia chips for AI servers and a robot dog”, Business Insider, August 1, 2025
Emily and Geoff break their summer hiatus to launch a new CNAS report detailing insights from a trade wargame that examined how foreign governments might respond to a dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs. For this live event they are joined by trade experts Wendy Cutler, Meredith Lilly, and Thorsten Benner to discuss the report and catch up on the real-world trade wars. Derisky Business will return to regular programming in the fall.
Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Game Over? How the United States Could Have Won the Trade Wars
While Derisky Business goes on summer break, revisit your favorite episodes of the podcast and dive into the Summer Reading List, featuring book recommendations from previous podcast guests and work from CNAS experts. Emily and Geoff will be back in the fall to catch up on all the economic security happenings.
Read the list here!
https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/happy-summer-from-derisky-business
Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constraining Iran’s nuclear program, and why the United States decided to proceed with military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He also explains why the next phase of Iran’s nuclear program might be the most dangerous.
Notes:
Richard Nephew, The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field
Richard Nephew, “A Last Chance for Iran,” Foreign Affairs
Richard Nephew, “Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?” Foreign Affairs
Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence
Suzanne Maloney, Political Economy of Iran Since the Revolution
Geoff and Emily debrief on the latest news in the U.S.-China trade talks. Becca Wasser, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS defense program, joins to talk about what Trump’s tariffs mean for the defense industrial base.Shownotes:
Becca Wasser and Phil Sheers,
“From Production Lines to Front Lines,” CNAS
Keith Bradsher, “China’s Chokehold on This Obscure Mineral Threatens the West’s Militaries,” The New York Times
Peter Foster, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Joe Leahy, “US and China agree to framework deal to restore trade war truce,” Financial Times
Arthur L. Herman, Freedom’s Forge (Amazon link)
Jenny Leonard and Mackenzie Hawkins, "US Makes Export Controls Negotiable as Part of China Trade Talks", Bloomberg
CNAS Annual Conference
To celebrate the podcast's one year anniversary, Emily and Geoff break down some big picture questions on how the trade wars are unfolding and the future of the global economic order.
Find all sessions and more at conference.cnas.org
Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security.
Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference
Paul Scharre, “The case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure,” TED
Commerce Department, “Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls”
Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, “Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs,” Bloomberg
Tripp Mickle and Ana Swanson, “Outsourcer in Chief: Is Trump Trading Away America’s Tech Future?,” The New York Times
China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition.
Plus, Emily and Geoff explain why and how the Trump administration might follow through on its idea to put a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films.
Notes:
CNAS, CNAS Welcomes Shana Mansbach and Liza Tobin as Adjunct Senior Fellows
Liza Tobin, “China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field,” Texas National Security Review
Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “China and America Aren’t Just in a Trade War. It’s a Fight for the 21st Century,” The Free Press
Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, “The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China,” Lawfare
John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom
Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out.
CNAS, The First 100 Days
Irineo Cabreros and Aatish Bhatia, “Trump’s Astonishing 100 Days, in 8 Charts,” The New York Times
Megan Brenan, “Most Americans Skeptical About Benefits of Tariffs,” Gallup
Abha Bhattarai, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, “Most Americans disapprove of Trump on tariffs, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds,” The Washington Post
While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next.
Show notes:
Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times
This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program.
On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how Trump's tariff announcement could impact European economies and the broader transatlantic relationship.
Dan Mullaney is the former assistant U.S. trade representative for Europe and the Middle East and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Tobias Gehrke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations whose research covers geoeconomics and European Economic Strategy.
Subscribe to Brussels Sprouts wherever you get your podcasts!
Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS economic wargame suggests about how foreign countries might respond. Plus, they argue about who gets to negotiate with the penguins.
Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times
White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits“
Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs”, Lawfare
Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.
Notes:
White House, America First Trade Policy Memo
Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs
Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal
Commerce Department, “Commerce Further Restricts China’s Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Capabilities”
White House, “Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States”
Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”.
Also, check out new CNAS research, Sanctions By The Numbers: 2024 Year in Review, which provides data-driven analysis on a record-setting sanctions year.
Edward Fishman, “Chokepoints”
Robin Wright, “Stuart Levey’s War”, New York Times Magazine
Geoffrey Gertz, “Goodbye to Small Yard, High Fence”, New York Times
Doug Irwin “Clashing Over Commerce”
Stefan Zweig “The World of Yesterday”
On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs.
WSJ Editorial on IEEPA-based tariffs
Brad Setser's "Follow the Money" blog
Follow Peter Harrell on LinkedIn
Eddie Fishman's "Chokepoints"
And register here for the CNAS Book Event with Eddie Fishman on 3/12
Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade war for the future of U.S.-Canadian relations.
Register for tomorrow's event!
Yougov polling, Many Americans and Canadians say higher U.S. tariffs hurt both economies; half of Canadians boycott U.S. companies
Andrea Mandel-Campbell, Why Mexicans Don't Drink Molson: Rescuing Canadian Business From the Suds of Global Obscurity
Lawrence Martin, The Presidents and the Prime Ministers: Washington and Ottawa Face to Face: The Myth of Bilateral Bliss, 1867-1982
Tim Cook, The Good Allies: How Canada and the United States Fought Together to Defeat Fascism during the Second World War
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