Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

GEU sits down with David Boling, Principal at The Asia Group, to unpack what Japan is walking into as Prime Minister Takaichi heads to Washington and conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets. Oil supply chains are under strain, the yen wobbles, and U.S. President Donald Trump shows no sign of easing his tariff instincts. Japan clearly has its work cut out. Can Tokyo still lean on old alliances and familiar playbooks in a world that feels more fractured and transactional? Boling walks through the risks and what Japan needs to get right. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Kamil and Stefan unpack the latest developments in the Middle East conflict and what they mean for the global economy. The world still runs on oil, and Middle East producers are keen to sell, but the Strait of Hormuz blockage is squeezing supply routes and pushing storage higher, with production cuts looming. The team asks what all of this means for Europe, APAC and the broader global outlook, weighing up winners and losers. In markets moving by the hour, even keeping track of the day of the week has become a challenge. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

GEU unpacks the broader fallout of the strikes against Iran. Energy prices have jumped, and a risk-off sentiment prevails in markets. There is a danger that the situation could get worse. Iran has retaliated, and a number of countries in the region have come under attack. Despite the worrying news, the team explains why it believes the conflict will end in a matter of weeks and why the global economy will prove resilient. And while strikes across the region are alarming, Gulf Cooperation Council economies have sufficient depth and resilience, so the regional economic hit should also remain small.   Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Join Gaurav Ganguly, chief international economist at Moody’s Analytics, as he unpacks the forces shaping the global economy. In Global Economy Unwrapped, Gaurav is joined by members of Moody’s Analytics economic research team to discuss key indicators, underlying trends, and evolving risks—offering sharp, data-driven insights from a global perspective. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the GEU crew break down the U.S. Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and what his replacement 15% tariff means for trade, supply chains, and global growth. The team debates who wins, who loses, and whether firms will rush to front-load shipments again before barriers rise anew. The conversation then turns to the dollar. What could trigger a sudden depreciation, and how would it ripple through balance sheets, trade, and the real economy? Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David and Andrew join Gaurav to discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the outlook. While U.K. economic prospects remain quite subdued, the unemployment rate should level off this year, and an imminent easing in the inflation rate is a notable bright spot. Another rate cut by the Bank of England looks to be just around the corner. However, the return of political uncertainty is a less welcome development. The team also touches on investment in artificial intelligence and its implications for employment in the U.K.’s services-oriented economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Suren, Stefan and Denise get together to unpack a flurry of trade developments in Asia. The U.S. and India announce a trade deal that cut tariffs from 50% to 25%, but with scant details. The team discuss the possibility of India halting purchases of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. goods. What would a shift towards Venezuelan oil look like? Elsewhere, Taiwan reaches its own trade agreement with Washington, while South Korea faces higher U.S. tariffs after delays in legislating its deal. The team rounds up with a quick discussion on unusual currency movements in the region. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the EMEA team are back for a surprisingly upbeat roundup of all things Europe. Barbara and Kamil discuss the better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures, with even Germany finally showing signs of a revival. With the business surveys improving and Germany’s huge fiscal package set to feed through, is the euro zone economy set for more robust growth in 2026 than previously thought? Meanwhile, the immediate crisis over Greenland appears to have faded with President Trump dropping his tariff threats, but Andrew questions whether this was driven more by domestic U.S. politics rather than Europe’s response. Finally, the team debate whether the EU-India trade deal could mark a turning point in Europe’s push to reduce its dependence on the U.S. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan get together to discuss what drove Asia-Pacific in 2025 and what lies ahead in 2026. Exports surprised on the upside, with China posting a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus despite higher U.S. tariffs. Denise points to rerouting and shifting supply chains, while Gaurav argues that Chinese competitiveness does much of the work. The outlook for 2026 looks far less comfortable. Geopolitics and tariffs dominate the risks, with U.S.-China relations facing a key test ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting in April. Tensions closer at home are another concern, as Beijing ramps up its diplomatic feud with Japan through new export restrictions and tighter rare earth screening. This hasn’t hurt the popularity of Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi, who has called a snap election that will likely see her party gain seats. But volatile bond markets and an oversold yen complicate the year ahead and leave Stefan fielding calls from “everyone and their dog” about JGBs. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Barbara, Andrew and Kamil for a deep dive discussion on the European outlook. Will 2026 be the year that euro zone growth finally picks up momentum? The team offer a number of reasons for optimism, including the fading impact from last year’s U.S. tariffs, lower interest rates, an apparent upturn in the global industrial cycle and the huge fiscal boost set to feed through in Germany. But as the rapidly-evolving crisis over Greenland illustrates, there are still plenty of ways this cautiously optimistic outlook could be derailed. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the GEU team unpack the key risks facing the global economy in 2026, but it soon becomes clear that economic forces risk being sidelined by geopolitics. How will the extraordinary U.S. actions in Venezuela affect oil markets and could it embolden Russia or China to make similar moves? Will the U.S. really seek to annex Greenland? And will 2026 bring more tariff pain, or is territorial expansion by the major powers now a bigger threat? With AI and a frothy looking U.S. stock market adding to the uncertainty, the team warn that 2026 is shaping up to be another turbulent year for the global economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew, Barbara, Denise, and Stefan join Gaurav for a festive deep dive into global manufacturing. They explore how China became the world’s workshop, climbing the value chain and reshaping the development model pioneered by Japan and South Korea. The conversation tackles China’s dominance in green tech, its implications for global investment, and whether emerging markets like Brazil and Vietnam can carve out their own niches. The team also asks if globalisation has gone too far, and what that means for the future of trade. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Professor Kazuto Suzuki of the University of Tokyo, and Director of the Institute of Geoeconomics joins GEU to discuss the future of globalisation. A wide-ranging discussion ensues which looks back over 2025 and looks ahead over the next few years. Globalisation remains an unstoppable force, despite fears that policy will be increasingly used as a weapon by countries to protect their geopolitical and economic interests. For the Global South in particular, the future continues to look bright.  Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the EMEA team return to unpack a busy few weeks of economic and geopolitical news. The latest data suggest the euro zone economy is showing signs of life, but the continued reluctance of consumers to spend remains a concern. The discussion turns to the U.S. and Russia’s bombshell 28-point peace plan for Ukraine and the whirlwind of negotiations that have ensued. While a lasting resolution to the conflict still looks further away than ever, the team outline the troubling implications for European security of the U.S. administration’s growing interest in investment deals with Russia. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Andrew and David to unpack the economic implications of the U.K. budget. After weeks of speculation and rumours of painful tax hikes, the government’s latest fiscal plans imply a less severe tightening than many had feared. But the team struggle to identify anything in the budget likely to move the needle on the U.K.’s longer-term growth prospects. And although Chancellor Rachel Reeves looks to have survived her latest test by the bond markets, there are still plenty of reasons for concern over the U.K.’s public finances. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise and Stefan unpack U.S. President Trump’s late-October swing through Asia and what it means for who makes what—and who buys it. The centrepiece was the Trump-Xi meeting, which produced a brief ceasefire in the tariff fight and set the stage for another round of talks in early 2026. In Southeast Asia, Trump signed four market-access and procurement deals that overwhelmingly favoured the U.S., while his stops in Japan and Korea delivered more photo-ops than breakthroughs. The team asks whether any of this can really shift the structural imbalance between the world’s producer, China, and the world’s buyer, the U.S. They also wrestle with the practicalities of countries committing to buy planes Boeing can’t build, and whether those U.S.-bound investment promises deserve a seat at the G20 table. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

LatAm team members Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers join Gaurav to take stock of the 2025-2026 electoral cycle. Gaurav and Juan Pablo discuss the economic landscape in Argentina following Javier Milei’s midterm victory. The conversation then turns to Lula, tariffs, and the economic outlook for Brazil. Jesse falls for Lula’s recent charm offensive. The discussion concludes with a discussion of Latin America’s medium-term prospects, and potential silver linings of upcoming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Click here for a link to the latest LatAm webinar Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Gaurav and the team tackle a critical question: what does the future hold for globalisation? They explore how the U.S. has upended the world order this year—through tariffs, brinkmanship, and the weaponisation of economic policy—yet global growth has proved more resilient than expected. The discussion also delves into the global spillovers of U.S.-China tensions, from rare earths to semiconductors and the enduring dominance of the dollar. Will the world settle into a unipolar, bipolar, or fragmented order? Tune in for a deep dive into the forces reshaping today’s global economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Suren, Charlie, and Aidan explore the new peace in the Middle East. They start with the newly agreed twenty-point peace plan between Israel and Hamas and explore its regional implications. Despite limited details and timelines, the ceasefire has held and advanced further than previous efforts—particularly in terms of hostage returns. While full implementation remains distant, all parties are still engaged. The conversation then shifts to Iran, including peace efforts, U.S. sanctions, and the waning influence of Iran and its proxies. The team also examines the Houthis’ disruption of shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, followed by a discussion on oil price stability amid escalating regional tensions. In closing, the conversation reflects on the resilience of GCC economies, which have defied regional geopolitical instability to attract global capital and deliver strong growth. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, Gaurav, Barbara, Andrew, and Kamil break down Europe’s latest economic and political events. They begin with France’s ongoing political saga—where recent developments have reduced immediate instability but left deeper issues unresolved, casting further doubt on the government’s fiscal recovery plans. The team then explores the impact that U.S. pharmaceutical tariffs will have on Europe and on the Continent's long-term investment outlook. Finally, they turn to industrial production data, underscoring the persistent weakness in manufacturing as the early-year boost from frontloading continues to fade. Questions or Comments, please email us at GEU@Moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.