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© Silva and Purves 2024
Description
Josh Silva of Passaic Partners and Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital discuss the world of investing through the lens of cross-asset and derivative frameworks.
The information, opinions and views expressed on this podcast are for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. The opinions expressed may not align with Passaic Partners' views or its client strategies. Market forecasts are speculative and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Consult your financial and tax advisors before making any investments.
29 Episodes
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More about rotation than directionBonds are still not protectingImplied correlation / VIX is at a record low
Healthy correction in gold and silverHigher nominal rates globallyWarsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX
Ready, Shoot, Aim FedMisunderstanding of Oracle CDSWelcome back to the ‘90s
Long Vol and long DeltaPaid to be long CorrelationBuy Everything!
Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earningsMarkets go up... volatility goes upThe Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the Everything ElseCross-asset correlations are already historically high — a short hop to “1”Gold is expected to move higher, driven by global populist monetary and fiscal stimulus
• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost
US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illnessTipping point for US Dollar weaknessRisk appetite still going strong!
The winners, the losers, and the in-betweensOld economy vs New economy CapExTrump has Made Europe Great Again (“MEGA”)US De-globalization is leading to Global De-correlation
Realized volatility did the heavy liftingTrade (“Cold”) War discountPace of news flow will slow
What does Liberation Day mean for inflation?Bonds and the Fed are pointing to growth contraction and moderate stagflationTail-hedging didn’t workTrump Put is very different than the Fed Put
The bond market says ...What's driving the yields?The VIX continues to be higher for longer
CEO FOMO, 30 years later.Using lessons from the past to understand risk today.A key difference in valuations, then and now.
CEO FOMO, 30 years later; Using lessons from the past to understand risk today;A key difference in valuations, then and now
The US political risk premium. Market corrections could be violent. Upside may be limited by PE contraction; downside may be limited by two Trump puts.
Rate volatility will likely be higher for longer. Elevated rate volatility means higher mortgage rates. High mortgage rates will contribute to higher inflation.
Fleeting competition for gold. Gold strength continues despite dollar range, elevated rates, and low vol. Silver can catch up.
Options Markets point to risk-on with a higher VIX through year-end. In China, right tail is bid. The AI rotation may benefit China and, derivatively, Europe.
The Fed is data driven, is the bond market?What usually calms the market?What will calm this market?
Third derivative has impacted market structureWho bailed out short vol and dispersion traders?Bonds did their job, but do they have the juice to do it again?Will Dual Goldilocks prevail?
Josh and Michael discuss whether the Rotation Trade is sustainable, if Russell is the right bedfellow and if thematic pairs trades are riskier than long indices.
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