Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)

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🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   TImestamps: 0:00 - BBM6 Winner Sam Sherman Shares His Charts 2:00 - Career PPR Points Per Game: 2020-2025 WR Classes  6:45 - Top 2 Season PPR Points Per Game Chart (CeeDee Lamb, Spike Seasons) 14:00 - Jameson Williams Polarizing Profile & Lions Offense Upside 19:30 - Career Yards Per Route Run Chart (Puka Nacua in a Tier of His Own) 20:00 - Luther Burden YPRR & Rashee Rice Undeniable Production 22:00 - Zay Flowers Elite Efficiency & Lamar Dysfunction 25:30 - Brandon Aiyuk Free Agency & "Doesn't Want to Play Football" Concerns 30:00 - Big Board Draft Begins: Gibbs Pick 1 & RB-Heavy Meta Discussion 33:00 - Saquon Barkley Efficiency Decline & Aging RBs 37:30 - Pickens vs. Olave: Cowboys Situation & Week 15 Quit Game 41:30 - Jayden Daniels Value Pick & Commander Skepticism 43:00 - Brock Purdy Mispriced & Pearsall Target Vacuum Upside 46:00 - Kyle Pitts, Mahomes Mispriced & Tyler Allgeier Free Agency Upside 49:00 - Running Back Free Agency Landscape (Texans, Chiefs, Cowboys) 53:00 - Matthew Golden: Tilting Playoff Performance vs. Ugly Rookie Year 57:00 - James Conner Free Agency Destinations (Chiefs, Bengals, Saints) 59:00 - Travis Kelce Late-Round Value & Retirement Risk 1:01:30 - Keaton Mitchell & Gunner Helm Deep Cuts 1:04:00 - Late-Round Dumpster Diving: Christian Kirk, Omar Cooper, Rookie WRs 1:06:00 - Brashard Smith: Only RB on Chiefs Roster & Bieniemy Connection 1:11:00 - Final Roster Recap & Outro 📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256

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🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   Timestamps: 0:00 — Intro: Road to 3,000 Drafts Begins 2:09 — Big Board Draft #1 (Pick 5): Ja'Marr Chase Start 8:06 — Kenneth Walker Free Agency Destinations 10:42 — Luther Burden Over Skattebo & Henderson 14:00 — Malik Willis Free Agency Contract Prediction 17:05 — Harold Fannin at 77: Weirdo TE Build & Sidekick TE Math 19:14 — Xavier Worthy Pick & Dusty Olds Discussion 21:50 — Denzel Boston vs. Late Rookie WRs (Concepcion, Cooper, Fields) 31:45 — Super Bowl Reaction: Drake May & Seahawks Defense 37:30 — Alec Pierce Contract Prediction & Patriots Offseason Targets 44:00 — Draft #1 Recap & Fast Draft Setup 46:30 — Big Board Draft #2 (Pick 10): Achane/McBride Start 51:00 — RB-Heavy Meta: Does Zero-RB Still Work? 52:30 — Daniel Jones Achilles Recovery & Christian Watson ACL Timeline 1:06:15 — Alvin Kamara Buried at ADP 150 1:22:05 — Big Board Draft #3 (Pick 4): True Zero-RB Build 1:27:30 — Bucky Irving Critique & Kyron Williams Breakdown 1:37:00 — Trevion Henderson ADP as Entitlement Tilt 1:38:05 — Stefon Diggs at Pick 100 Post-Super Bowl 1:47:30 — Advance Rates Don't Matter & Playoff Strategy 1:51:55 — Travis Kelce Playing in 2026? ADP Projection 2:02:53 — Outro 📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256

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🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 0:00 Justin Herzig joins + stream framing 5:00 Early board talk: Rashee Rice and Tyreek usage discussion 15:00 Veteran WR/RB value talk: Mike Evans comps + Montgomery vs Gibbs 30:00 Risk debate: Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce retirement, David Njoku ADP 45:00 Super Bowl cultural relevance tangent 1:00:00 Player takes: Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr discussion 1:15:00 WR discussion: Khalil Shakir and mid-round receiver targets 1:25:00 Prospect rabbit hole: Singleton injury + Kevin Coleman and RB takes 1:40:00 Ladd McConkey and Tyreek slot rate debate + draft bookkeeping 1:50:00 TE board talk: Bowers/McBride vs Loveland + Burrow range discussion 2:05:00 QB talk: Malik Willis and Michael Penix discussion 2:15:00 Closing segment: Javonte Williams talk + late-round wrap-up

Timestamps: 00:00 Big Board kickoff, 3,000-team goal, and early draft season mindset 03:10 Why early Big Board ADP inefficiencies matter more than later drafts 06:00 Christian McCaffrey at 1.06 and early first-round RB vs WR decision-making 09:35 Brock Bowers in Round 2 and how stacking dynamics shape elite picks 14:15 Why quarterback stacking is structurally difficult on the early Big Board 18:00 CeeDee Lamb ceiling concerns after George Pickens trade 21:40 RB-heavy start logic: McCaffrey + Josh Jacobs and early build construction 26:15 Malik Willis speculation and early QB arbitrage strategy 31:05 Why the 2025 RB class could drive massive ADP inflation 36:30 Braelon Allen as an early Big Board breakout target 41:00 Wide receiver value pocket: Jaylen Waddle, Luther Burden, and rookie WR hierarchy 45:20 Xavier Worthy ADP debate and how to think about fragile profiles 49:05 Sidekick tool goes live and how it changes early draft decision-making 55:00 Denzel Boston prospect breakdown and early breakout signals 59:25 Tyreek Hill landing spot speculation and veteran WR portfolio theory 1:04:00 Draft 1 recap: structural review and portfolio takeaways 1:07:30 Bigger Board draft begins and how strategy shifts at higher stakes 1:11:15 Christian McCaffrey + Justin Jefferson elite anchor philosophy 1:16:35 Jayden Daniels early QB push and rushing QB ceiling logic 1:22:20 Travis Etienne + Byshell Tootin and exploiting free agency uncertainty 1:27:55 Chiefs WR speculation and Rashee Rice price dynamics 1:33:45 Chargers offense skepticism and fading Herbert-based optimism 1:39:40 Tight end landscape: Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Kraft, and mid-tier TE exposure 1:45:30 Rookie RB targets: Braelon Allen, Roman Hemby, Adam Randall 1:52:10 Bigger Board roster review and build structure evaluation 1:56:00 Third draft begins: Puka Nacua anchor and WR-heavy construction 2:01:00 Rashee Rice value pocket and Kansas City WR exposure strategy 2:06:30 Luther Burden + RJ Harvey start and hybrid roster builds 2:12:15 Jalen Hurts QB value and elite rushing QB leverage 2:18:15 Tight end and wide receiver middle-round value zones 2:23:40 Final roster recap and Big Board macro strategy summary

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🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 00:00 Conference Championship NFL Sports Betting Introductions 08:41 Game 1 Preview: Broncos vs Patriots Opening Line & Market Context 09:06 Bo Nix Injury Impact: How Much Is the QB Worth to the Spread? 12:23 Sean Payton Tendencies Without His Starting QB 16:26 Denver Pass Rush vs Patriots Protection: The Deciding Mismatch 19:12 Patriots Run Defense vs Denver Run Game 22:31 Best Bet Lean: Broncos vs Patriots 23:40 Game 2 Preview: Seahawks vs Rams Opening Line & Setup 24:09 Stafford vs Darnold: Quarterback Volatility & Range of Outcomes 34:05 Best Bet Lean: Seahawks vs Rams 36:41 How We Build a Championship Weekend Betting Card 37:30 Profit Boost SGP Build Walkthrough 42:01 Popular Tab Exploits + Prop Market Leverage 47:27 Final Thoughts & Closing

🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 00:00 Playoff Best Ball Bag Check Introduction 2:30 How many live teams DO you have left 19:00 Around The Industry Advance Rate 28:00 The Cooks Non-Catch 38:00 Drake Maye has some post-season learning to do 44:00 The Rams Switch Up 48:10 Who is going to coach what team 53:00 Titans 55:45 Charbs Knee Surgery 59:00 Kevin Stefanski 1:01:30 Does it even matter who coaches the Steelers for fantasy football? 1:05:00 Cleveland Browns 1:17:00 Kenneth Walker in 2026 will be the RB____ 1:30:00 CFB Final Pick Em https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-syGYOYE7PE

🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 0:00 Slate overview + playoff best ball recap / FFPC talk  Timestamps 2:02 Bills @ Broncos begins (line, total, macro view)  4:56 How Bills attack Denver (12 personnel, run vs elite pass D) 8:16 Broncos offense vs Bills run D: RJ Harvey usage + why he’s chalk 12:03 49ers @ Seahawks begins (Kittle out, Trent Williams note, Purdy vs SEA) 16:17 McCaffrey vs JSN: “if you can only pick one” debate starts 21:39 Kenneth Walker vs Charbonnet split and leverage 23:53 Texans @ Patriots begins (low total, trench game, Stroud concerns) 27:29 DFS approach: “avoid this game” + RB darts (Stevenson/Henderson) + Texans WR value 30:11 Rams @ Bears begins (highest total, extreme cold) 34:20 Bears game script rant: slow starts, Ben “calls good plays” later 35:47 Bears pass-catchers: “Loveland regardless” + Burden/Moore hierarchy 38:00 DraftKings build starts 38:25 Caleb Williams as QB pick + Loveland stack 38:52 Kyron vs Corum: drive-for-drive split breakdown 41:09 Salary-saver construction: double TE (Tonjes) + late swap angles 43:14 Final lineup read + pivots (Burden swap, Bears D)

🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 1:15 Audio Fixed  4:00 Davis Mattek Advance Rate 14:00 Steelers Total Ownership 20:00 There is no way to tell how good your playoff best ball portfolio is right now 30:00 THe way to early wildcard is the msot insane contest on DraftKings 38:00 DraftKings Advance Check In 51:00 You want to advance as many low scoring teams as possible 1:04:00 Loveland vs Warren 1:10:0 Rams Super Teams 1:17:00 The Postseason Contests 1:21:00 MNF Underdog Pick Em https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-6A3bbVbJoa

Code DAVIS to sign up for OddsJam: https://oddsjam.cello.so/9ANwlkq8ugS 🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 00:00 Sports Betting Introduction 2:45 Carolina Panthers - Los Angeles Rams NFL Sports Betting Preview 11:45 Chicago Bears - Green Bay Packers NFL Sports Betting Preview  19:00 Buffalo Bills - Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Sports Betting Preview 29:00 Philadelphia Eagles - San Francisco 49ers NFL Sports Betting Preview  38:00 Los Angeles Chargers - New England Patriots NFL Sports Betting Preview  44:00 Pittsburgh Steelers - Houston Texans NFL Sports Betting Preview  52:00 Pick Recap  57:00  Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and draft your Playoff Best Ball lineup for a shot at the $1 million top prize. Drafts stay open until the postseason kicks off, so now’s the time to jump in. You draft it. We crown it. So sign up now using CODE MATTEK https://dkdfs.sng.link/Avkw3/eg9e?_dl=draftkings%3A%2F%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D601924520&pcn=BestBall&psn=3171&pcid=422228&pcrn=xx&pscn=PromoMATTEK&wpcn=BestBall&pcrid=xx&pscid=xx&wpcid=422228&wpcrn=xx&wpscn=PromoMATTEK&wpsrc=3171&wpcrid=xx&wpscid=xx&_forward_params=1  to take your shot at $1 million in DraftKings’ biggest Playoff Best Ball contest ever. Gambling Problem? Call one eight hundred gambler. In New York, call eight seven seven eight HOPENY or text HOPENY at four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit C C P G dot org. Eighteen plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. See terms at draftkings dot com. Sponsored by DraftKings.

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🔥 Play Best Ball & get a deposit bonus w/ code DAVIS → https://play.underdogfantasy.com/davismattek   💎 Join the channel for Discord access + Perks → https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChjRIs14reAo-on9z5iHJFA/join   👕 Grab Slappy the Seal merch → https://davis-mattek-shop.fourthwall.com/products/slappy-the-seal-shirt   📝Drafters Best Ball ($100 Deposit Bonus) → https://drafters.com/refer/davis  🎯 Premium Tools & Content:   Run The Sims (10% off w/ ENDGAME) → https://www.runthesims.com   Unabated DFS/Betting Tools → https://unabated.com/?ref=davis   Patreon + Discord → https://www.patreon.com/davismattek   📩 Stay Connected:   Newsletter → https://automattekabsolutes.beehiiv.com/   Draft Caddy → https://endgamesyndicate.com/membership-levels/?pa=DavisMattek   Podcast → https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grinding-the-variance-a-davis-mattek-fantasy-football-pod/id1756145256 Timestamps: 00:00 Can defense win Championships in the NFL now?  11:00 First Draft Begins Out Of The 1.02: Should we take CMC here?  18:40 Favorite Advance Rate Pieces  24:00 Are we really doing this with the Steelers?  29:00 A Rams Draft Begins At 1.01 (An All Advance Rate Team)  48:00 Recovering From A Draft That Did NOT Go Well Out Of The 1.5 (Absolute shipper with Allen/Cook) 1:09:10 Drafting Out Of The 1.3 1:27:00 I wish there was an option to just remove the Steelers  1:40:00 Maybe time to start to try and draft JSN? (Nope NVM) 1:58:00 We are trying another Josh Allen Team  2:12:00 A Giga Rams 1.01 Draft Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and draft your Playoff Best Ball lineup for a shot at the $1 million top prize. Drafts stay open until the postseason kicks off, so now’s the time to jump in. You draft it. We crown it. So sign up now using CODE MATTEK https://dkdfs.sng.link/Avkw3/eg9e?_dl=draftkings%3A%2F%2Fgateway%3Fs%3D601924520&pcn=BestBall&psn=3171&pcid=422228&pcrn=xx&pscn=PromoMATTEK&wpcn=BestBall&pcrid=xx&pscid=xx&wpcid=422228&wpcrn=xx&wpscn=PromoMATTEK&wpsrc=3171&wpcrid=xx&wpscid=xx&_forward_params=1  to take your shot at $1 million in DraftKings’ biggest Playoff Best Ball contest ever. Gambling Problem? Call one eight hundred gambler. In New York, call eight seven seven eight HOPENY or text HOPENY at four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit C C P G dot org. Eighteen plus in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. See terms at draftkings dot com. Sponsored by DraftKings.

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