Insider: Short of War

Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has significantly bolstered the Alliance's capabilities, adding 15 million people and doubling the NATO-Russia land border to 1,584 miles. This development enhances irregular warfare (IW) opportunities, both defensively and offensively, by leveraging the Nordics' strong militaries, societal resilience, and geographic proximity to Russia. Defensively, Finland contributes a massive reservist force of up to 870,000 trained citizens, the Hybrid Center of Excellence for countering hybrid threats, and winter warfare expertise from its special operations forces. Sweden adds its Total Defence model, which prepares civilians through informational brochures, a specialized submarine fleet for Baltic Sea operations, and a robust defense industrial base producing advanced systems like the Gripen fighter jet. Offensively, the Nordics' location creates dilemmas for Moscow, enabling NATO to threaten key Russian assets in areas like the Kola Peninsula and St. Petersburg while facilitating reinforcements and deterrence through flexible options involving special operations. This shift forces Russia to reallocate resources, stretching its military posture across a longer border and reducing focus on other fronts like Ukraine. While risking security dilemmas, these IW enhancements strengthen NATO's northern flank without necessitating large-scale escalations, turning what was once neutral territory into a strategic advantage for the Alliance.

American Samoa is a strategic hub in the South Pacific, yet its importance is often overlooked in U.S. defense planning. This episode explores how Pago Pago Harbor’s unique geography, rising Chinese influence, illegal fishing, and illicit trafficking intersect with America’s maritime security challenges. Drawing on history, regional geopolitics, and current infrastructure gaps, the episode makes the case for renewed U.S. investment, a permanent Coast Guard presence, and port modernization to secure vital sea lanes, protect U.S. maritime rights, and strengthen regional stability in an era of great power competition.

U.S. security force assistance is trapped in a “Schrödinger’s Cat” paradox: the very metrics used to measure partner military success distort reality and create the illusion of effectiveness. By relying on easily quantifiable indicators—troop numbers trained, equipment delivered, units certified—the U.S. incentivizes performative behavior by both advisors and partner forces, producing polished reports rather than durable institutions. Drawing on examples from Afghanistan, Iraq, the Sahel, and even Ukraine, the authors show how tactical proficiency metrics routinely mask corruption, weak political legitimacy, and institutional fragility, leading to strategic failure despite apparent progress. They contend this problem has worsened under post-2017 assessment frameworks that treat security assistance as a linear, engineering problem rather than a complex adaptive system. The solution, they argue, is not abandoning assessment but redesigning it: shifting from proof-seeking to hypothesis-testing, elevating qualitative advisor judgment, measuring outcomes that partners cannot fake, and aligning evaluation with strategic competition rather than counterterrorism-era outputs—so that when a crisis finally “opens the box,” policymakers aren’t shocked to find a force that only ever looked alive on paper.

This episode explores how NATO’s updated Security Force Assistance doctrine reflects lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Sahel. It examines shifts from counterinsurgency to great-power competition, the growing role of multi-actor SFA environments, training outside the host nation, improved assessment tools, and the integration of human security and international law. Listeners will gain insight into how NATO is adapting its approach to build more effective and legitimate partner forces amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.

This podcast episode explores the Northern Ireland peace process through a close reading of Eamonn O’Kane’s The Northern Ireland Peace Process: From Armed Conflict to Brexit. Tracing events from the Good Friday Agreement through decommissioning, power-sharing, and Brexit, the episode examines how a violent conflict was transformed into a long, fragile political process. It highlights key decisions, enduring tensions between unionists and nationalists, and why peace in Northern Ireland remains an ongoing endeavor rather than a settled conclusion.

This episode examines cognitive warfare in the Indo-Pacific and how the United States and its partners can counter PRC influence by shaping narratives, empowering local voices, and leveraging technology. Through real-world examples and a proposed cognitive warfare framework, the conversation explores how information, perception, and digital tools can deter aggression and uphold international norms long before conflict. Adapted from the original Irregular Warfare Initiative article.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Karl Marlantes—Marine infantry officer, Navy Cross recipient, and author of Matterhorn—reflects on the Vietnam War and the enduring lessons America has failed to absorb. Drawing on combat experience, literature, and decades of reflection, Marlantes discusses leadership under pressure, moral injury, civil wars, warrior identity, postwar reintegration, and how modern conflicts from Iraq to Ukraine echo Vietnam’s unresolved truths. This interview explores not just how wars are fought, but how they shape individuals, institutions, and national memory.

The future of the AH-64 Apache is under intense debate as the U.S. Army balances manned attack helicopters with rapidly advancing unmanned systems. This episode examines the evolution of attack aviation, the rise of drone swarms, manned-unmanned teaming, and whether the Apache can adapt to remain relevant in modern and future conflicts. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, Israel, and decades of Army aviation history, the discussion explores cost, survivability, lethality, and mission effectiveness across the spectrum of conflict.

In this episode, Dino Garner explores how critical minerals and irregular warfare intersect in the gray zone. Moving beyond mining myths, the discussion reveals how China’s dominance of mineral processing and refining has become a strategic weapon—one that threatens Western defense supply chains, deterrence, and sovereignty. From rare earths to magnesium, this audio version walks through the industrial vulnerabilities shaping modern economic and irregular warfare, and the policy responses now emerging to confront them.

In this episode, we explore how the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) operates at the intersection of economics and national security. From solar farms and hotels to dating apps and food supply chains, the discussion examines how foreign ownership of U.S. assets can create strategic vulnerabilities. Drawing on real-world cases involving China, critical infrastructure, and sensitive data, this podcast explains how CFIUS has evolved into a powerful—and often opaque—tool of economic statecraft in an era of great-power competition.

In this episode, we examine the real-world effectiveness of offensive cyber operations in modern warfare. Using the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and Israel-Iran conflicts as case studies, the discussion explores how cyberattacks were timed alongside kinetic operations, the role of hacktivists, and why cyber activity has failed to produce decisive battlefield effects. The episode also highlights key policy, strategic, and operational lessons for future conflicts involving advanced cyber powers.

In this episode, we explore how Russian maritime sabotage has evolved from a niche component of special operations into a broader, scalable form of irregular warfare. Drawing on developments within GUGI, the GRU Spetsnaz, and Russia’s expanding use of uncrewed systems, this audio version examines the shifting threat landscape, the vulnerabilities of undersea infrastructure, and what this transformation means for Western defense planners.

Japan stands at a strategic crossroads. This episode examines how Japan’s postwar pacifism, historical memory, and aversion to war as strategy affect its ability to compete in an era defined by irregular warfare and great-power rivalry. Tracing Japan’s experience from World War II to today, the discussion explores why strategic literacy matters—and what reforms could better position Japan as a capable security partner in the Indo-Pacific.

In this episode, we explore the dramatic rise of the Uskoks of Senj—refugees turned maritime raiders—and how they became one of history’s earliest and most revealing examples of proxy warfare. Drawing parallels between their 17th-century operations and modern irregular warfare doctrine, this episode examines their underground networks, guerrilla tactics, and volatile partnership with the Habsburgs. We unpack their strategic impact on the Ottoman and Venetian Empires and the lessons their story offers for today’s practitioners navigating the complexities of proxy relationships, deniability, and asymmetric conflict.

This episode covers a deep-dive exploration of how space-based capabilities for irregular warfare can transform security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The podcast examines how satellites, AI-enabled analysis, and commercial space data expose gray-zone activity, enhance maritime surveillance, strengthen partner resilience, and shape narrative competition. Listeners will hear how space tools—from SAR imaging to resilient communications—empower frontline nations and enable long-term strategic influence across the region.

This episode explores how civilian-linked maritime intelligence can shift the balance in gray zone competition. It explains why local observers, when connected to regional analytic hubs, can generate faster attribution, reduce ambiguity, and strengthen partner decision cycles. Through examples from the Pacific Fusion Centre to the 2024 Second Thomas Shoal crisis, the episode examines how community-linked alert networks, tactical intelligence cells, and multilateral partnerships can reshape escalation dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.

In this episode, we examine the evolving role of USSOF cyber operations. From lessons in Ukraine to integrating technology and industry partnerships, learn how Special Operations can enhance strategic outcomes and maintain relevance in modern conflict.

In this episode, we explore Taiwan’s 2025 National Defense Report and its powerful shift toward national resistance, cognitive resilience, and irregular deterrence. Learn how Taiwan confronts PRC gray zone harassment, cognitive warfare, and narrative manipulation while strengthening societal resilience, military readiness, and whole-of-nation defense. This full-length reading presents a detailed, accessible breakdown of the report’s most important insights for policymakers, security practitioners, and listeners interested in Indo-Pacific security.

This episode explores how Russian sabotage in Europe has evolved into a defining feature of the continent’s security landscape. Drawing on recent incidents—from attacks on undersea cables to arson targeting political figures—the narrative examines why sabotage offers Moscow a low-risk, high-reward strategy. We break down misleading trends, the gig-economy model of recruiting saboteurs, vulnerabilities across European infrastructure, and why these operations persist despite increased Western coordination. The episode concludes with policy implications, deterrence challenges, and what NATO must change to confront sabotage as part of the new normal.

In this episode, we explore insights from the 2025 Partnership for Peace Consortium workshop on proxies in hybrid operations. Hear how experts from 12 countries examine Russia’s evolving proxy strategies, regional case studies, and emerging hybrid threats. The discussion outlines a four-pillar framework for understanding and countering proxy activity and highlights the launch of a new collaborative research initiative shaping future democratic resilience.