Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Distinguished economist Paul Krugman joins Jack to discuss the devaluation of the dollar, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, artificial intelligence, and much more. Dr. Krugman brings his expertise to give cogent and intelligent answers on important economic questions of our time. Recorded on February 6th, 2026.   Follow Paul Krugman on Substack https://paulkrugman.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96   Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Recorded in February 6th 2026, technical analyst Milton Berg returns to discuss his market outlook after correctly predicting the major market bottom in April 2025. Although his long-term retail model remains 100% long equities until a specific 8% drawdown occurs, Berg reveals that his institutional portfolio is currently net short across major indices. This bearish institutional stance is driven by rare technical anomalies, including a "disturbing" volatility signal from December and a historic "island reversal" pattern in the Russell 2000. Berg admits the current market is tricky, noting that recent strong buying action might force him to cover shorts, though he remains skeptical of the rally's breadth. Turning to commodities, Berg states he is bearish on gold and silver, having shorted them near their late January highs due to signs of a "climax top" and extreme overvaluation relative to inflation. He also provides a critical assessment of Bitcoin, arguing it holds no intrinsic value and pointing out that it recently failed to hold critical technical support levels. Throughout the discussion, Berg emphasizes that his methodology ignores standard economic narratives in favor of identifying rare volume and price occurrences that signal market turning points . Finally, he introduces a new service for individual investors designed to capture the bulk of bull markets while neutralizing emotional decision-making. As Jack notes in the beginning, Milton has since turned from net short to net long U.S. stocks for institutional clients. About Milton Berg Edge: https://miltonbergedge.com/ Follow Milton Berg on X https://x.com/BergMilton Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez DISCLAIMERS and DISCLOSURES for Milton Berg Edge   This Newsletter contains hypothetical performance results. Please carefully review and consider the following disclosures.  Important Disclosure Information Milton Berg Edge is a newsletter (“Newsletter”) owned and published by Milton Berg Advisors, LLC, doing business as “Milton Berg Edge” (“MB Edge,” “firm,” “we,” “our,” and “us”). Milton Berg Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in the States of Florida and New York. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. The Newsletter is a subscription based publication that contains (i) our general commentary and opinion on broad-based market trends and other factors affecting the domestic investment markets in the United States; (ii) answers and reactions to subscriber submitted questions and comments; and (iii) the actual trading activity and net performance of our proprietary investment model (as traded within an account that is actively managed by the firm) and the backtested performance of the model (the “Model”). The contents of the Newsletter and our website (“Website,” and collectively with the Newsletter, the “Content”) are for informational and educational purposes only. No portion of the Content should be construed as investment advice or recommendations tailored to the financial circumstances, investment needs, objectives, and/or limitations of any particular subscriber. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital joins Monetary Matters to discuss why they aren’t rushing to short AI pretenders and fakers until more supply of speculative companies hits the market from big IPOs. They also discuss the increasing dominance of flows over fundamentals in US markets and abroad and Muddy Waters expanding investment focus including: metals and mining stocks, Vietnam, and momentum strategies. Follow Muddy Waters on Twitter: https://x.com/muddywatersre Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:44 AI and Market Speculation 05:14 Challenges in Short Selling AI Stocks 17:58 Pictet PQNT 19:09 AI Pretenders 21:41 Mining Investments and Strategies 36:51 Red Flags in Investor Presentations 39:07 Geopolitical Considerations 40:15 Fraud in Chinese Companies 49:43 Vietnam and India Investment Opportunities 59:05 Momentum Strategy in the S&P 500 01:05:07 Activist Short Selling and Future Plans

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ Alexander Campbell, founder of Rose AI and former head of commodities at Bridgewater, joins the show to dissect the structural drivers behind the silver market and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. Campbell details the "Silver Squeeze" thesis, attributing the metal's volatility to a combination of inelastic industrial demand from solar manufacturing and speculative capital flight out of China. He clarifies complex market dynamics, specifically the "Shanghai Premium" and the logistical friction involved in moving physical metal between Western and Eastern exchanges. Shifting to technology, Campbell warns of an impending "air pocket" for traditional software stocks, arguing that AI agents will disrupt companies that function primarily as "a database and a front end". He outlines a future defined by local compute and open-source models, predicting that value will accrue to data ownership and physical hardware rather than legacy SaaS applications. The conversation concludes with Campbell’s macro strategy of being long the "world of stuff" and data while betting against the "economy of paper" amidst de-globalization. Recorded February 2, 2026. Alex’s pieces: “Silver: The Only Money That Generates Electricity”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/silver-the-only-money-that-generates “The Silver Squeeze”: How Solar Threatens a Decade of Deficits https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-silver-squeeze “When You Feel Pain, Remember to Reflect”: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/when-you-feel-pain-remember-to-reflect “The Protection Portfolio: September 2025”:https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-protection-portfolio-september Follow Alex Campbell on X https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 World Silver Survey 2025:https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/World_Silver_Survey-2025.pdf November 2025 Interim Market Review: https://silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Silver_Institute_Silver_Interim_2025.pdf Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners   Raghav Khanna, managing director at Oaktree’s Global Private Debt strategy, joins Jack to discuss the ins and outs of the credit industry. Raghav offers insight into the opaque world of lending, including his opinions on the First Brands Group fiasco, private credit, and artificial intelligence. Raghav not only explains recent trends in credit, but gives his thoughts on where things may be headed as technology shifts. Recorded on January 22nd, 2026.   Follow Raghav Khanna on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/raghavkhanna/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96   Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF ($PQNT): https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/ In this interview, Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com discusses various levers the Trump administration could pull to lower mortgage rates, even without the Federal Reserve's direct involvement. These include directing government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their mortgage holdings, potentially by lifting their current portfolio caps. Wang also notes that expanding access to cheap financing from Federal Home Loan Banks for mortgage REITs could be another avenue. Beyond housing, Wang predicts that President Trump will significantly influence the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to more interest rate cuts than the market currently anticipates. He suggests that Chair Powell will likely leave his position in May, allowing Trump to appoint a successor. Wang is bullish on the US economy, citing tailwinds like a potential productivity boom, strong credit creation, and stimulative fiscal policy. However, he cautions that AI stocks are in a bubble, though he believes the technology itself will benefit the broader economy by increasing productivity. Recorded January 29, 2026. Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 “Sleeping Giants” (Joseph’s piece on Fannie & Freddie): https://fedguy.com/sleeping-giants/ Follow Joseph Wang on X https://x.com/josephwang Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/ The relentless surge in precious metals continues, with gold seeing gains in all but three trading days this year and silver holding above $110 despite some analyst warnings that the rally may be nearing an end. While some attribute these moves to a "debasement trade" or a weakening US dollar, the speakers argue that silver’s rise is primarily driven by real industrial demand and supply shortages rather than pure speculation. Beyond metals, the 2026 market is being shaped by a "hawkish" Federal Reserve that signaled it is unlikely to cut rates in March due to a stable labor market and elevated inflation. On the earnings front, Microsoft and Meta reported strong revenue but faced differing investor reactions over massive capital expenditures in AI. Meanwhile, Tesla saw its stock rally despite a double-digit decline in automotive revenue, as investors focused on its transition into a "physical AI" company specializing in robotics and autonomous driving. Finally, a "doomsday" narrative is currently haunting software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies, as investors weigh whether AI will commoditize software or if established brands can maintain their high customer retention. Recorded evening of January 28, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on:  Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh  Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Deiya Pernas, co-founder of Pernas Research, has crushed the market and compounded at over 30% since he and his partners began tracking their portfolio in 2017. In this interview, Deiya examines 10 key micro and macro questions that he believes could be the key to continued outperformance in 2026, including questions around SaaS spend, white collar hiring, home buying in a lower rate environment, consumer spending trends, and more. Learn more about Pernas Research: https://pernasresearch.com Follow Pernas Research on Twitter: https://x.com/pernasresearch Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:14 Key Market Questions for 2025 02:19 The SaaS Apocalypse and Disruption Risks in SaaS 05:03 Investment Strategies and Mean Reversion 11:17 AI's Role in SaaS and Portfolio Construction 13:53 Structural Changes and Consumer Behavior 18:13 SEO and Commercial Search Intent 23:14 Small Companies and Market Trends 27:19 Investment Philosophy and Risk Management 29:34 Remitly: A Case Study in Investment 32:46 Stablecoins and Remittance Payments 36:39 Challenges for Crypto Adoption in Remittances 38:30 Understanding Migrant Financial Behavior 39:41 Consumer Spending Shifts Post-2020 42:25 Housing Market and Economic Indicators 44:26 Brand Equity and Consumer Discretionary Investments 49:36 The Influence of Social Media on Sports Spend 56:57 Commercial Travel and Office Return Trends 01:05:31 Cybersecurity: A Growing Investment Focus 01:07:56 Conclusion

Maredith Hannon, Head of Business Development at Wisdom Tree Digital, joins Other People’s Money to discuss how tokenized real-world assets are taking off at a pace eerily similar to the early growth of ETFs. Crypto enthusiasts have long touted the potential for fund vehicles to be tokenized and put on chain. That story is quickly becoming a reality with rapid AUM growth and established players like WisdomTree with over $100B in AUM quickly launching funds from money market and equity to alternatives like private credit. Hannon also discuss the additional utility that on chain funds provide and how they are giving access to retail and institutional clients alike with platforms like WisdomTree Prime and WisdomTree Connect. Follow Maredith Hannon on X: https://x.com/MaredithH1 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:54 The Rise of Tokenization 02:20 WisdomTree's Tokenized Funds 04:35 Comparing ETFs and Tokenized Funds 10:35 User Experience in Tokenized Assets 20:29 Regulation and Future of Tokenized Funds 25:12 Tokenized Private Credit 26:01 Liquidity and Redemption in Private Credit Funds 28:08 Secondary Market and Peer-to-Peer Transfers 29:34 Transparency and Daily Updates 37:10 Future of KYC and Identity Verification 43:12 Global Expansion and New Use Cases 46:10 Getting Started with WisdomTree Prime

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this deep-dive interview, NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran, the "Dean of Valuation," assesses the current state of the U.S. stock market, describing the S&P 500 as richly priced but stopping short of calling it a bubble. He explores the "big market delusion" inherent in the AI revolution, distinguishing between the profitable "architecture" of chips and the highly speculative future of Large Language Models. Damodaran provides a candid look at his own portfolio, explaining why he recently exited his Nvidia position after a massive run while continuing to hold Microsoft. He offers a sharp critique of "lazy" valuation metrics like the P/E ratio, arguing that investors must instead focus on cash flows and the shift toward buybacks to understand market resilience . Furthermore, he warns that while AI will benefit consumers, the resulting competition may actually lead to lower profit margins for most companies collectively. Finally, the Professor touches on the role of gold as something that is viewed as an "insurance policy" in a world where institutional trust is rapidly eroding. Recorded on January 15, 2026. Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@AswathDamodaranonValuation Aswath Damodaran’s Website https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ Aswath Damodaran on X https://x.com/AswathDamodaran Aswath Damodaran on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/aswathdamodaran/ Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Jack & Max break down the bull market in silver and gold, how they are expressing their bullish views via royalty companies, and debate whether we are approaching peak prices. They also discuss surging natural gas prices, what Intel’s disappointing earnings mean for the AI bull market, and the strong performance from small caps so far in 2026. Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:33 Silver Market Dynamics and Industrial Demand 07:13 Historical Context and Market Speculation 13:30 Investment Strategies in Precious Metals 18:22 Gold Mining Companies and Market Trends 32:24 Intel and the Semiconductor Market 34:48 Intel's Struggles in Semiconductor Production 35:42 Comparing Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor 36:22 AI and Semiconductor Market Trends 43:30 Natural Gas and Commodities Market 46:12 Small Cap Stocks and Market Performance 58:17 Natural Gas Infrastructure and Investment 01:02:08 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Speculations 01:07:26 Final Thoughts and Market Predictions

In this episode, Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors reveals why he has liquidated 100% of his US asset positions to bet on the "Rest of the World". He breaks down the looming financing headwinds created by massive AI capital expenditures and political promises, explaining how this borrowing spree creates a near-term drag on US equity and corporate bond prices. Constan argues that the era of US exceptionalism is fading, making Japanese and European assets far more attractive for risk premia and diversification now that their yields have normalized. He also predicts that while a recession isn't imminent, economic growth will likely miss lofty expectations, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates more aggressively than the market has priced in. Finally, Constan shares his insights on why he remains long gold as a portfolio hedge and how investors should reposition for a period where global assets are set to outperform the U.S. Recorded January 20, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://x.com/dampedspring Andy’s gold piece, “Glittery”: https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Glittery.pdf Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Barry Naughton, a renowned professor and chair of Chinese International Affairs at UC San Diego, provides a deep dive into the current crises and triumphs of the Chinese economy. In this interview, Naughton analyzes why China is grappling with its most difficult challenges in decades, from a persistent housing bust to entrenched deflationary pressures. He offers a critical look at the shift from market liberalization to aggressive state-driven industrial policy, including the massive "government guidance funds" used to target a new technological revolution. The conversation explores the geopolitical showdown between the U.S. and China over critical mineral supply chains and the race for AI dominance. Naughton also addresses the demographic "graying" of China and the shifting household psychology that is transforming the nation’s growth potential. This is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the "Industrial Policy 3.0" era and its implications for global trade and investment. Recorded on January 12, 2026. Barry Naughton’s books:“The Rise of China's Industrial Policy, 1978 to 2020”: https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Chinas-Industrial-Policy-1978/dp/6078066595 “The Chinese Economy: Transitions And Growth”: https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Economy-Transitions-Growth-Press/dp/0262640643 More info:https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/barry-naughton.html Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/?via=monetarymatters President Trump has shaken the financial markets by proposing a strict 10% interest rate cap on credit cards, a move that sent stocks like Visa and MasterCard tumbling. In this episode, Jack and Max break down whether this policy is a genuine legislative goal or a political stunt designed to win the midterms by addressing the affordability crisis. They explore how banks might retaliate—potentially by releasing a "teaser" card with limited access—and which subprime lenders and pawn shops could actually boom if traditional credit dries up. The duo also analyzes the surprising bipartisan roots of this idea, tracing it back to proposals from Bernie Sanders and AOC. They discuss if the current dip in payment stocks represents a buying opportunity for contrarian investors. They also explore other executive interventions from the President in defense, mortgages, and the Federal Reserve. Recorded the evening of January 13, 2026. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Pieces Discussed:Joseph Wang’s “Sleeping Giants”: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/NPLH_AER%20(2).pdf Buyback Capital’s “[Updates #34] The GSE's, Bill Pulte, and Implications”: https://buybackcapital.substack.com/p/updates-34-the-gses-bill-pulte-and?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=4jms2a&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email “No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870  2012”: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documents/NPLH_AER%20(2).pdf Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners Steven Novakovic, Managing Director of Educational Programs at CAIA, discusses the monumental shift from strategic asset allocation to the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA), a change recently highlighted by major moves at CalPERS. The conversation explores the evolving landscape of private markets, specifically how secondary markets are providing crucial liquidity and entry points for investors dealing with slowed distributions and the "denominator effect". Novakovic also provides a candid look at the friction between hedge fund fees and beta-heavy returns, arguing that sophisticated limited partners will not pay for beta. As alternative investments become more accessible to retail wealth, he emphasizes the critical need for education regarding evergreen funds and the unique risks of private market liquidity. Finally, the episode looks forward to 2026 educational initiatives at CAIA.Follow Steve Novakovic on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-novakovic-caia/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on:Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Governance Changes in Pension Plans 00:45 Strategic Asset Allocation vs. Total Portfolio Approach 03:24 Early Adopters and Global Trends in TPA 05:06 Benchmarking and Decision-Making Shifts 09:58 CalPERS Case Study: Governance and Tactical Opportunities 17:32 Impact on Managers and Investment Strategies 22:08 Current Market Trends and Private Credit 25:54 Private Equity Distributions and Secondary Markets 35:32 Reinvesting Portfolio Proceeds 36:39 Understanding Secondary Market Buyers 37:09 Benefits of Secondary Allocations 39:14 Challenges and Strategies in Secondary Markets 45:03 Hedge Funds vs. Equity Markets 46:35 Evaluating Hedge Fund Performance 49:02 Active Management and Fee Structures 56:53 Educating Investors on Alternatives 01:03:00 CAIA's Educational Resources 01:05:44 Upcoming CAIA Programs

Dr. Michael Power, a seasoned financial analyst, consultant, and strategist, joins Jack to discuss his recent work that predicts the Chinese A.I. industry may soon beat the U.S. at its own game. Dr. Power explains what makes the Chinese approach fundamentally different from U.S. labs like OpenAI and how it will likely affect the Chinese economy, the worldwide adoption of A.I., and the valuations of U.S. A.I. companies. As Dr. Power explains, China has the potential to not only catch up to the U.S., but to become the global leader in artificial intelligence. He and Jack get into the weeds to cut through the noise and get a read on what is really happening with Chinese A.I. Recorded on January 7th, 2026.   Read Dr. Power’s No More Moore? Essay https://tinyurl.com/hvxdubbw Follow Dr. Power on LinkedIn https://za.linkedin.com/in/michael-power-8825473 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

In this episode of Monetary Matters, Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Kao, CIO of Akanthos Capital Management and the Kao Family Office, to unpack the real energy risks facing the U.S. economy. The conversation opens with Venezuela and the Trump administration’s push to reshape global oil supply. Michael explains why Venezuela’s vast reserves are unlikely to move the market quickly, why OPEC spare capacity still caps oil prices, and why he remains structurally bearish on oil despite constant fears of shortages. From there, the focus shifts to what Michael believes is the true vulnerability: natural gas. He lays out a three-pillar thesis centered on premature electrification, the explosive growth of AI data centers, and expanding LNG exports. Together, these forces are driving electricity demand higher for the first time in decades, straining a power grid that increasingly depends on natural gas for baseload generation. The episode concludes with a discussion of how Michael is positioning for this shift, why he favors natural gas mineral rights over commodities or equities, and why natural gas is fundamentally different from oil when it comes to geopolitics and government intervention. Read Michael’s Substack, “Macro/Geopolitics/Investing - The Energy Achilles' Heel of America” here: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrogeopoliticsinvesting-the Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Geopolitical Energy Security 00:46 US Energy Concerns and Venezuela 01:33 Venezuela's Oil Production Potential 03:22 Natural Gas: The New Dependency 04:49 Challenges in Oil Production and Pricing 15:16 The Role of Natural Gas in the Energy Market 20:58 The Future of Natural Gas and Electricity Demand 31:13 Investment Strategies in Natural Gas 32:03 Challenges and Risks in Natural Gas Trading 33:45 Advantages of Mineral Rights Investments 38:16 Global and Local Dynamics of Natural Gas 40:39 Data Centers and Energy Demand 42:39 Future of Natural Gas and Market Trends 52:26 Investment Considerations and Strategies 01:03:12 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm In this episode, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down what really happened in markets in 2025 and what it means for investors heading into 2026. While U.S. equities delivered strong returns and continued to attract record foreign capital, global markets quietly outperformed, with emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia posting significantly higher total returns. The conversation digs into why the “U.S. is the only game in town” narrative broke down, how currency hedging changed foreign capital flows, and why countries like South Korea and China dominated performance. Jack and Max also explore sector-level winners and losers, the ongoing strength of AI and semiconductors, and the rise of speculative excess in areas with little fundamental support. Looking ahead, they debate the biggest risks for 2026, including AI valuations, private credit, labor market weakness, and the growing disconnect between corporate profits and employment. The episode closes with a discussion of tariffs, geopolitics, precious metals, and where real opportunities and hidden risks may lie as the global bull market continues to evolve. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:47 US Market Performance in 2025 02:37 Global Market Comparison 04:25 Top Performing Countries and Sectors 05:08 Worst Performing Markets 11:29 Sector Analysis and Trends 16:50 Speculative Stocks and Quantum Computing 19:59 AI Trade and Precious Metals 23:55 Silver Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints 25:02 Biggest Risks to Market Stability in 2026 26:58 Bond Market and Inflationary Concerns 30:28 Private Credit and Market Risks 36:02 Tariffs and Their Impact on the Market 41:29 Geopolitical Special Situations: Venezuela 44:15 Upcoming Interviews and Fiscal AI

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and widely known as the “Convexity Maven,” joins Monetary Matters to break down the hidden risks shaping today’s markets. He explains why inflation is likely to remain structurally higher, why massive fiscal deficits matter more than Fed policy, and how passive flows continue to support equities despite growing cracks underneath. The conversation dives deep into bonds, mortgage-backed securities, credit risk, gold as an alternative currency, and why convexity is the key concept investors consistently underestimate. Bassman also outlines practical portfolio hedges designed to perform when markets move to extremes, offering a rare, long-horizon framework for navigating uncertainty in 2026 and beyond. Read Harley’s 2026 Stocking Stuffers here: https://www.convexitymaven.com Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Financial Crises and Convexity 00:30 Meet the Convexity Maven: Harley Bassman 01:08 Macro View: Inflation and Economic Drivers 01:48 Demographics and Spending Trends 03:24 Immigration and GDP Growth 04:21 Fiscal Policy and Inflation 05:36 Bond Market Predictions 13:27 Equity Markets and Passive Flows 17:31 Mortgage-Backed Securities: A Safe Bet? 23:51 Leveraged Trades and Interest Rate Hedges 32:09 Comparing Long Duration Investments 33:50 Understanding Positive Carry in Options 40:36 Private Credit and High Quality BDCs 48:48 Investing in Big Oil and MLPs 55:03 Gold as an Alternative Currency 01:00:12 Portfolio Construction and Sizing 01:01:50 Conclusion and Future Episodes

Monetary Matters can get 25% off Citrini Bundle (Citrindex AND Citrini Research) here through January 14: https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=398e4269 The investor known only as Citrini returns to share his thematic watchlist for the new year, aka “26 Trades for 2026.” The conversation pivots from the hardware-focused "phase one" of the AI trade toward "phase two," which focuses on companies utilizing AI to streamline bloated bureaucracies and increase margins. Citrini details his high-conviction "AI Bureaucracy Alpha" framework, identifying firms that could significantly reduce headcounts and improve profitability through automation. Beyond labor, the interview explores critical bottlenecks in the supply chain, specifically highlighting the importance of advanced packaging and custom silicon. They also dive into commodities like natural gas and copper, analyzing how AI data center demand is creating a potential supply squeeze. Finally, Citrini discusses his "Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder" theory, identifying cyclical sectors that are currently showing extreme capital discipline after years of trauma. Recorded December 24, 2025. Pieces Discussed:“26 Trades for 2026: A Thematic Watchlist for the New Year”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/26-trades-for-2026 “Carving Up the TPU: Leftovers for Jensen or Just Gravy on the AI Trade?”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/carving-up-the-tpu “Robotics Update: Revealing Teradyne’s Vulcan Contract Win, Citrini’s China Supply Chain Tour, and Robotics Basket Winners”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/robotics-update Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez