The AZ Political Podcast

Fresh off reelection, Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes dodges questions about his future with trademark candor and talks election funding, taxes and why Republicans got routed.

Yes, he just won another statewide election as part of the biggest winning year for Democrats in modern Arizona history. Sure, he beat his opponent, Alexander Kolodin, by more than 10 points and 255,000 votes. And, yes, he’s still two months away from even starting his next four-year term in office.    But, still, I had to ask my guest on the AZ Political Podcast — recently reelected Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes — what’s next for him.    Governor? Congress?    No, really! I had to ask him because he’s now 3-for-4 in his electoral career and has a .1000 batting average when it comes to winning statewide elections. And I had to ask because these thoughts are always bouncing around the heads of politicians during heady times like these.   His answer is surprising (which is not surprising because it’s Fontes) — but what’s not surprising is the honesty he delivers in explaining why he can’t be 100% forthcoming about his future.   In other words, I got an entertaining and thoughtful non-answer to my question — served with a side of candor.   His plain-spoken way of putting things (even when holding things close to his vest) is why a top Republican advisor told me recently that Fontes is the Democrat he fears the most.   In typical Fontes fashion, he doesn’t hold back on other topics: like funding elections properly; funding all levels of government in Arizona’s (traditionally) tax-averse environment; how badly Republicans really got beat on Election Day; and, why he had such a big win.    Is it because he’s Adrian Fontes? Or was it because of who his opponent is — or what he is: a Republican. Because most candidates with a “R” didn’t get a “W” on Election Day.   You’ll have to watch the AZ Political Podcast to get the answer. But trust me, it’ll be worth it. Because… Fontes.

We’re calling this week’s show “A Special Edition of the AZ Political Podcast,” because I got especially lazy: repurposing some interviews that I did during an Arizona Votes Election Special. But it’s also a special edition because the folks I talked to are special people who are especially knowledgeable about Arizona elections, like Matt Salmon.   I chatted with the former Arizona congressman about whether we could see one, two or even three Congressional seats in Arizona flip to the Democrats in this midterm election.    Matt is the perfect guy to talk about this because he was swept into Congress in 1994’s Republican Revolution — "mid-term" in Bill Clinton's first term.   I also asked Mike Noble, the CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, about what his polls are showing for Arizona’s statewide races (like the governor's race) — as well as whether polling shows there’s a likelihood that the Arizona Legislature would flip to Democratic control.    That’s something that hasn’t happened in a looong time.   But you have to hear what Mike told me about the amount of money being spent in this election season. Jaw-droppingly huge.   And I talked with attorney Christine Jones, a Republican who ran for governor and for Congress in Arizona and has continued to be a big supporter of Republican candidates and causes in our state.   We chatted about the possibility that the U.S. House and Senate could both end up with Democratic majorities. And we talked about the reason that could happen: President Trump has his worst approval numbers of any time during either of his two terms.    Truly terrible timing for Republicans in Arizona that the bottom fell out of the President’s numbers mid-term during his last term: a time when many people in the GOP were hoping to get another — or even their first — term in office.

As a gunnery sergeant in the U.S. Marine Corps, JoAnna Mendoza considered herself a “servant leader.” Now, she wants to lead by serving in the U.S. House of Representatives — which will only happen if she’s leading Juan Ciscomani after the votes are counted.   Mendoza, the Democrat challenging incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ciscomani in Arizona’s Sixth Congressional District (CD6), is my guest this week on the AZ Political Podcast. During our time together, she drove home the concept of being a servant leader by hitting me with the Latin phrase “Ductus Exemplo.”   Ductus Exemplo, the motto of the United States Marine Corps Officer Candidate School, where Mendoza was a drill instructor, translates to “leadership by example.”    Considering Democrat Ruben Gallego and Donald Trump, a Republican, both won CD6 in 2024, Mendoza will have to lead through the example of working well with others.    One example Mendoza has set for women who may find themselves in unhealthy relationships, is something that’s made her a single mom of a 10-year-old boy: “Early on during my pregnancy I made the choice that I would remove myself from a not-great situation with the biological father of my son.”    Even though she believes it “was the right choice,” it was a tough choice that led to some tough times.    “The hardest thing that I’ve done is raise a boy, is, is be a mom and I’ve done hard stuff before.” That hard stuff, by the way, includes one combat tour in Afghanistan and two in Iraq — which involved a stint at Al Asad Airbase, where I was an embed in 2006.   Mendoza says her top priority will be to lower costs because she believes that people in CD6 are “suffering right now and it is absolutely painful and heartbreaking to watch.”   So how does she plan to put “money in their pockets” — as she puts it? Is she considering income subsidies? “No, I’m not. I’m talking about rolling back tariffs… and then let’s reinstate SNAP and Medicaid.” And she wants fraud, waste and abuse of government programs to be part of the conversation.    “Let's tackle that (fraud), making sure that the people who actually need these programs have access to them. Let’s work with the Governor. Let’s work with the state legislature to, you know, get that fraud and abuse out of there but also reinstate the program.”    Tall orders indeed. And in order to have a shot at ever filling them, Mendoza has to win in one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country.    But don’t put anything past a Marine Corps gunnery sergeant. Tall orders are their specialty (taking and giving ). And accomplishing tough tasks (like winning CD6) is just another day at the office for a Marine.

Democrat Jonathan Nez told me on this week’s AZ Political Podcast that a lot has changed since the fall of 2024. I’m pretty sure Nez is hoping that a lot of that change took place in the minds of Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District (CD2) voters.    2024 is the first time that Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation, ran to replace Republican Congressman Eli Crane in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. Since the outcome of that election saw Crane win by a 54.5% to 45.5% margin, I’ll bet Nez is hoping 2024 will be the first — and the last — time he loses.   Some numbers are certainly favoring Nez more this year: According to a late August poll by Democratic firm GBAO Strategies, Crane only has a two-point advantage (46% to 44%) over Nez — putting them in a statistical tie.   However, other numbers don’t break Nez’s way, like party registration. CD2 is 39% Republican, 27% Democrat and 31% independent (no party designated). But, that GBAO poll shows Nez with a 22-point advantage amongst independents.   Nez told me about another thing that’s changed. “In the last cycle, I didn’t get any party support; it was grassroots,” but the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has come through with ad support this year.   Good thing for Nez, too, because the Federal Elections Commission report filed just before the Primary Election showed that Crane had raised almost $9.5 million — putting him at #14 among all House candidates nationwide. Meanwhile, Nez’s $3.5 ranked him at 125th.    That’s not a lot of money to cover a lot of ground — which CD2 has in spades. The 10th largest congressional district in the country, CD2 covers the entirety of five counties and parts of four others — and is more than 300 miles long from top to bottom.   And since we are on the topic of money, let’s finish there — because money is what Nez is banking on to be the top-of-mind topic for voters. And the issue that could create a different outcome in this election cycle. Because Nez believes the difference in affordability of living life now, versus two years ago (when he lost to Crane), will make all the difference in his race versus Crane this time around.