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Patrick Boyle On Finance
Patrick Boyle On Finance
Author: Patrick Boyle
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© Patrick Boyle
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This podcast is all about quantitative finance and financial history. Subscribe to hear about financial markets, derivatives, and how investors use quantitative tools from statistics and corporate finance theory. Included are interviews with some of the most interesting thinkers in finance. Occasional longer form financial documentaries, open up fascinating elements of financial markets history. Patrick Boyle is a quantitative hedge fund manager, a university professor, and a former investment banker. To contact Patrick visit http://onfinance.org Find Patrick on YouTube at: https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance DISCLAIMER:This podcast is not affiliated with any financial institution. The information provided is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Those seeking investment advice should seek out a registered professional in their home jurisdiction and confirm their credentials on your national regulator's website. Patrick Boyle is not responsible for any investment actions taken by viewers and his content should not be used as a basis for investment or other financial decisions.
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In today’s podcast, we examine the aftermath of the massive January 2026 data dump—three million pages of Jeffrey Epstein’s investigative files that the Department of Justice maintains contain no incriminating “client list”. We dive into the “Social Ponzi Scheme” that enabled decades of abuse, exploring the suspicious real estate transfers, cryptocurrency custodian links, and the international criminal probes that are currently toppling political giants across the globe. From the high-level PR strategies of the “Wall Street Renaissance Man” to the harrowing evidence of a eugenics-obsessed operation, we explore why this long-awaited transparency should not be confused with actual justice. As it turns out, when the powerful retreat into “vast carelessness,” it is often because they have spent years building a system designed to silence the questions they cannot answer.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
On January 22, 2026, TikTok officially became an "American" company. The $14 billion deal, brokered by a consortium of politically connected investors, was supposed to end the years of national security concerns and protect the data of 170 million US users. Instead, the new TikTok USDS Joint Venture has stumbled out of the gate with a series of "technical glitches" that look suspiciously like targeted censorship. From the inexplicable blocking of the word "Epstein" in direct messages to the suppression of protest videos in Minneapolis, the new management’s first week has raised a troubling question: did we actually solve the problem of algorithmic manipulation, or did we just ensure that the people doing the manipulating are the ones who helped broker the deal?This video examines the bizarre political U-turn that turned TikTok from a national emergency into a sweetheart deal for insiders. We look at the new owners, the incredibly invasive "biometric harvesting" hidden in the new Terms of Service, and the "Rational Business Actor" theory that suggests no company would be dumb enough to break its own product on day one. We also explore the "Mecha-Hitler" problem of content moderation, and why the "National Security" label may now be acting as a permanent shield against transparency for a platform that is now 100% domestic, 100% private, and perhaps, 100% MAGA.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
The recent Greenland crisis at Davos 2026 has shattered transatlantic trust, forcing Europe to confront a terrifying new reality: the need for strategic autonomy from the United States. Faced with what it views as transactional coercion, Brussels is readying an arsenal of economic countermeasures, ranging from a "trade bazooka" targeting U.S. tech firms to the highly publicized "financial nuclear option"—the threat of dumping trillions in U.S. Treasuries. But before we panic about a bond market collapse, we need to examine the hard financial realities: Is weaponizing sovereign debt a viable strategy, or is it merely a macroeconomic suicide pact? This video dives into the mechanics of this potential economic war and the high cost of moving from an era of global efficiency to one of fearful autarkyArticles Mentioned:Michael Pettis Paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/china-financial-markets/2025/07/foreign-capital-inflows-dont-lower-us-interest-ratesMartin Wolf Article: https://www.ft.com/content/e2c8c6c3-0cdc-4aa8-a47d-399407c75ad9Richard Samans Paper: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/rebalancing-the-world-economy-right-idea-but-wrong-approach/Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In a highly unusual move - the Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. As America faces a high-stakes standoff over the future of the Federal Reserve, the traditional independence of the nation’s central bank is under direct attack. This video explores the intensifying war between the White House and Fed Chair, over a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. We break down why many experts believe this probe is a mere pretext intended to bully the Fed into slashing interest rates to rock-bottom levels, potentially putting the long-term stability of the U.S. economy at risk for short-term political gains.We also take a closer look at the "agents of chaos" Bill Pulte, Judge Jeanine Pirro and the "shadow" economic strategies currently in play, from the FHFA’s controversial bond-buying programs to the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. From the strategic blockade in the Senate by Senator Thom Tillis to the "Miran Limbo" on the Fed’s Board of Governors, we unpack the technical and political maneuvers being used to bypass Jerome Powell. Is the U.S. headed toward a "banana republic" risk premium, or can its institutional guardrails hold firm? Join us as we examine the true price of a political Fed and what it means for the future of the dollar.Patrick Boyle on Hidden Forces: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7JqqPA70sutlCJ9bh7kruL?si=Cxz13eubSnGHtHSoVDMgKQPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Last week, the White House decided to pivot from "America First" to "America Everywhere." It began on Saturday morning with a 150-aircraft military strike to serve what Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a "routine law enforcement warrant"—proving once and for all that if you have a large enough aircraft carrier, every parking ticket is technically a tactical operation.In this video, we look at the internal contradictions of the new "Donroe Doctrine," a policy that treats international borders as suggested boundaries and sovereign nations as distressed assets. We explore why the plan to "take the oil" faces a minor mathematical hurdle: according to Rystad Energy, 60% of Venezuela's production projects require an oil price of $80 per barrel just to break even. This makes the administration's plan to lower gas prices by flooding the market with oil a bit like trying to save money on your commute by buying a fleet of private jets.We also look at the high-profile residents currently moving into the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, why the "ultimate sin" in modern diplomacy is keeping your own Nobel Peace Prize, and why the Danish government is currently checking its lease agreement on Greenland after being told the U.S. is interested in a "hard way" to close the deal.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Two days after its release, my analysis of the Epstein files was on track to break every record on this channel. Then the yellow dollar sign appeared, and the video flatlined.In this video, we explore how algorithmic demonetization has evolved into a form of "soft censorship." It isn't a conspiracy, but a broken business model that taxes serious journalism in favor of "brand safe" entertainment. We look back at the Logan Paul "Adpocalypse," examine the structural bias against independent creators, and analyze the alarming decline of U.S. Press Freedom (now ranked #57 globally).From the missing footage in Epstein's cell to the 2020 spike in journalist arrests, we ask the hard question: If the algorithm filters out the "boring" work of holding power to account, does YouTube cease to be a digital public square?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
The first two batches of the Epstein files have finally been released, and the revelations are explosive. For decades, the media and the justice system ignored the most basic question: Who helped him? Now, thanks to thousands of pages of newly released DOJ documents, we know that there were the co-conspirators. In this video, we look through the latest evidence to expose the network of co-conspirators and high-powered enablers who made Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes possible. We go beyond the headlines to reveal the specific individuals—from Ghislaine Maxwell to banking titans like Jes Staley—who were far closer to Epstein’s operation than they ever admitted.We break down the bombshell New York Times investigation that dismantles the myth of Epstein's "financial genius" and uncover the bipartisan cover-up that kept these files buried for 40 years. From Donald Trump’s newly revealed flight logs to Bill Clinton’s White House connections, we show how a "two-tier" justice system worked to protect the powerful at the expense of the truth.New York Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/magazine/jeffrey-epstein-money-scams-investigation.htmlPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Three years ago, the global auto industry was gripped by a collective hallucination. CEOs promised us that the internal combustion engine would be dead by 2035 and that legacy automakers were just one battery factory away from a trillion-dollar valuation.That narrative has now collided with economic reality.In this video, we analyze the collapse of the "inevitability" narrative. We look at why Ford has been forced to take a staggering $19.5 billion write-down, why the European Union is quietly dismantling its own petrol ban, and why—despite billions in subsidies—automakers are still losing $6,000 on every electric vehicle they sell.We examine how the industry confused a political project with consumer demand, leading to a market where the cars are too expensive for the middle class and too unprofitable for the manufacturers.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
DOGE promised to cut $2 trillion from the U.S. budget. Instead, it delivered chaos, memes, and a black eye—literally. In this video, we unpack Elon Musk’s candid post-mortem on the Department of Government Efficiency, why the savings never showed up, and how the “Manhattan Project of our time” turned into a bottle rocket. From the Wall of Receipts to the IRS meltdown and USAID’s woodchipper moment, we follow the money (and the missing billions) using Treasury data, Brookings analysis, and some jaw-dropping anecdotes. If you want the truth behind the headlines—and a few laughs along the way—this is the deep dive you’ve been waiting for.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
For years, firms like MicroStrategy turned buying Bitcoin into a corporate cheat code—raising billions, pumping token prices, and fueling meme-driven hype. But the magic loop has snapped. In this video, we break down why the “infinite money glitch” stopped working, how leveraged ETFs magnified losses, and why even Michael Saylor is now hoarding dollars. From gamma trades to meme economics, this is the story of how hype capitalism hit a wall.Zeke Faux on Good Work : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exoNex2Yn5wPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
For decades, a university degree was the golden ticket to a stable career and upward mobility. That promise is breaking down. Graduate unemployment is rising, entry-level jobs are disappearing, and automation is hollowing out the first rung of the corporate ladder.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
OpenAI has signed $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments, but how do they plan to pay for it? Are government subsidies and taxpayer-backed guarantees the next step? In this video, we dive into the financing gymnastics behind the AI revolution, the lobbying for federal support, and why tech firms are pitching AI as “too important to fail.”Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Is Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Plan the answer to America’s housing affordability crisis—or a financial trap? In this video, we break down the economics, politics, and history behind ultra-long mortgages.You’ll learn:* Why a 50-year mortgage might not lower monthly payments as promised* How interest rates and risk pricing change with longer loan terms* The hidden costs: slower equity growth, higher lifetime interest, and systemic risk* Lessons from Japan’s 50- and 100-year mortgages—and why they failed* What really drives housing affordability If you’re curious about housing policy, mortgage mechanics, and the future of homeownership, this deep dive is for you.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Elon Musk says his new online encyclopedia Grokipedia will fix Wikipedia’s flaws by replacing human editors with AI. But can a chatbot really deliver “the whole truth and nothing but the truth” as he says? In this video, we dive into the battle between Wikipedia’s messy, transparent consensus and Grokipedia’s algorithmic certainty.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
In this video, we explore how China’s dominance in rare earth elements has become a powerful geopolitical tool—and why the United States is struggling to catch up. From the Mountain Pass mine in California to Apple’s $500 million recycling push, we unpack the strategic importance of rare earths in everything from electric vehicles and smartphones to fiber optics and missile systems.We also look at the recent Trump–Xi summit, the temporary truce on export controls, and the deeper tensions that remain unresolved. Why are rare earths so hard to substitute? How does China’s export licensing regime work? And what happens if the U.S. gets cut off?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
The AI boom isn’t just about algorithms — it’s about money, power, and a race to build infrastructure on a scale we’ve never seen before. In this weeks podcast, we break down the circular deals between OpenAI, Nvidia, Amazon, Anthropic, and even Elon Musk’s business empire — and ask the hard questions: Who’s paying for this? Where will the electricity come from? And is the industry building a Möbius strip of venture capital and gigawatts that could collapse under its own weight?We’ll explore:The spaghetti diagram of AI’s biggest playersOpenAI’s trillion-dollar data center ambitionsWhy Nvidia’s demand might not be what it seemsThe risk of stranded assets and systemic leverageHow geopolitics and energy constraints could shape the futurePatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Private equity has long promised smooth returns, operational excellence, and sophisticated diversification. But behind the pitch decks and performance charts lies a growing crisis. In this video, we explore:🔹 Why private equity firms are struggling to exit investments🔹 The illusion of stability created by stale pricing🔹 The role of leverage in driving returns — and fragility🔹 The push into 401(k)s and what it means for retail investors🔹 The rise of continuation funds, NAV loans, and other liquidity maneuvers🔹 The social and regulatory backlash against PE roll-up strategies🔹 What Bain, Buffett, and Cliff Asness really think about the modelFrom inflated IRRs to collapsing portfolio companies, the cracks are starting to show. Is private equity still a smart bet — or just a sophisticated shell game?Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Argentina’s economy is in crisis—again. President Javier Milei’s reforms slashed inflation and balanced the budget, but now the peso is under siege. In this video, we unpack the $20 billion U.S. bailout, the speculative pressure on Argentina’s currency, and the political risks ahead of the October 26 midterms.We’ll look at:Why the U.S. Treasury is buying pesos for the first time in decadesHow Milei’s fixed-but-adjustable exchange rate is draining reservesThe geopolitical angle: China, soybeans, and Washington’s strategic betWhat history tells us about defending overvalued currenciesWhether Milei’s reform agenda can survive—or if the chainsaw has stalledPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Two companies collapsed last month. One sold used cars, the other distributed brake pads and spark plugs. Both issued debt rated AAA. Now their bonds are trading at cents on the dollar—and Wall Street is pretending not to notice.In this video, we dig into down the bankruptcies of Tricolor Holdings and First Brands Group to understand what they reveal about private credit, and why supposedly safe securities are starting to look a lot less safe. We’ll look at hidden leverage, double-pledged collateral, shadow banking, and the growing disconnect between risk and reward in today’s credit markets.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Is America Closing the Door on Global Talent?Donald Trump’s new $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, universities, and foreign governments. In this video, we unpack the legal, economic, and political fallout — from panics at airports to diplomatic blowback, from the Hyundai factory raid to the eerie silence of Silicon Valley CEOs. Is this the end of skilled immigration as we know it? Or just another chapter in America’s long-running immigration drama?We’ll explore:What the H-1B visa is and why it mattersHow the fee could reshape tech hiring, university admissions, and global talent flowsThe legal challenges ahead and the industrial policy contradictionsWhy CEOs are staying quiet — and what that silence saysThe growing divide between MAGA populism and tech elite pragmatismPatrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel:Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle





great as always.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaJpYjO136o Bill mahar
it's a bubble also the Taxes to be paid to be offset by infrastructure investment another canard