Geopolitics Unplugged

GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.This special free quick review covers Day 4’s events from the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 while previewing Day 5. Amid a fractured global order, Day 4 focused on calls for pragmatic multilateralism, free-market reforms, and sustainable energy transitions. Full recap below – no fluff, just sources and highlights.Key Signals from Day 4* Geopolitical pragmatism rises: Leaders urged adaptation to great-power competition and regulatory overhauls.* Free markets vs. overregulation: Warnings on excessive rules stifling growth, with pushes for deregulation.* Energy and blue economy spotlight: Emphasis on sustainable maritime fuels and collaborative ocean strategies.* AI and tech abundance: Discussions on technological optimism amid societal integration needs.* Ukraine conflict updates: Appeals for dialogue to end the war.Day 4 RecapChris Wright – U.S. Energy Secretary (in conversation with Vicki Hollub, CEO, Occidental Petroleum)* Stated: “The world needs to more than double oil production,” emphasizing long-term dependence on oil for decades.* Highlighted energy security through increased U.S. natural gas and LNG exports replacing Russian supplies in Europe post-2022.* Criticized EU corporate environmental regulations (e.g., methane monitoring for importers) as barriers to cooperation, calling for their removal.* Described EU and California green policies as inefficient, leading to higher prices and reduced production (e.g., California’s crude output fell from 1.1 million bpd in 1985 to 300,000 bpd in 2024).* Noted Occidental’s 2014 exit from California due to regulations, with implications for global supply chains and fossil fuel investment amid decarbonization debates.Friedrich Merz – Federal Chancellor of Germany* Highlighted Europe’s lack of preparedness for “great power politics,” criticizing Brussels as the “world champion of overregulation.”* Announced a summit with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni on February 12 to advance deregulation and capital market reforms.* Stressed restoring competitiveness against the US and China, including bypassing obstacles to the EU-Mercosur trade deal.* Urged pragmatic adaptation amid tariff threats, emphasizing security over excessive regulation.* Noted overregulation’s impact on energy sectors, calling for streamlined rules to boost industrial growth.Prabowo Subianto – President of Indonesia* Emphasized Indonesia’s role as a middle power in navigating US-China tensions.* Called for strengthened multilateralism through dialogue to address trade disruptions.* Discussed investments in renewable energy and critical minerals to support global supply chains.* Highlighted the need for inclusive growth in emerging markets amid geopolitical shifts.Volodymyr Zelenskyy – President of Ukraine* Described a “very good” meeting with US President Donald Trump, focusing on ending the war.* Urged pressure on Russia, noting the conflict’s origins in disputed 2020 US elections.* Appealed for continued international support to restore peace and rebuild infrastructure.* Stressed the war’s global implications, including energy security disruptions in Europe.Javier Milei – President of Argentina* Advocated for free markets and economic freedom as antidotes to socialism.* Warned against state intervention, citing historical examples of prosperity through liberty.* Called for ethical reforms in global economics to reduce corruption.* Emphasized tokenization of assets to streamline financial systems, with implications for energy trading.Elon Musk – CEO, Tesla and SpaceX (in conversation with Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock)* Envisioned an “abundance technological” future driven by AI and sustainable energy.* Discussed accelerating AI timelines while ensuring societal benefits.* Highlighted Tesla’s role in EV adoption and SpaceX’s contributions to global connectivity.* Noted energy demands from data centers, urging investments in renewables like solar and batteries.Other Notable Addresses* Yo-Yo Ma’s performance and conversation with Aulani Wilhelm focused on cultural dialogue for environmental stewardship.* In the “Velocity of the Blue Economy” session, EU Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas introduced a ports strategy addressing energy, sustainability, and maritime fuels.* Open Forum on “Beyond Earth – The Next Space Race” explored space as a domain for international cooperation.Day 4 underscored the tension between multilateral dialogue and unilateral power plays, with leaders highlighting free-market reforms as key to navigating AI-driven growth, energy transitions, and geopolitical frictions.Day 5 Agenda Highlights* 09:00 CET: Closing Plenary on “A Spirit of Dialogue” – Reflections from WEF leadership on the week’s outcomes.* 10:30 CET: Davos Kick-off for FIFA World Cup 2026 – Speakers include Gianni Infantino, Alessandro Del Piero, and Arsène Wenger on global unity through sports.* 12:00 CET: “Investing in People” Panel – Discussions on skills transformation and AI’s workforce impact.* 14:00 CET: “Building Prosperity Within Planetary Boundaries” – Focus on climate resilience and sustainable innovation.* 15:30 CET: “Deploying Innovation at Scale” – CEOs on responsible AI and tech deployment.* 17:00 CET: Final Press Conference – WEF President Børge Brende on key commitments.Which session are you watching most closely today? Reply in comments.Which session are you watching most closely today? Reply in the comments.* WEF Annual Meeting 2026 Agenda(https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2026)* Live from Davos 2026: Day 4 Highlights (https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/live-from-davos-2026-what-to-know-on-day-4)* Javier Milei Special Address Transcript (https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-javier-milei-president-of-argentina)For deeper predictions, alliance shifts post-Trump address, or full Rapid Reads archive – upgrade to paid. Free tomorrow: Next-day recap. Share this if it cut through the noise for you.Thanks for reading GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack! This post is public so feel free to share it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

By Justin James McShaneGeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.This is a special free quick review of yesterday’s (January 21) events at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue.” Amid fractured global order, Day 3 (January 21) centered on navigating contested geopolitics through negotiation over confrontation, accelerating AI deployment, and balancing protectionism with economic realities. A full recap is below with no fluff, just sources and highlights.Key Signals from Day 3* Geopolitical negotiations over force: U.S. President Trump explicitly ruled out military action on Greenland, framing acquisition as a security imperative via talks, easing immediate transatlantic tensions.* AI as massive infrastructure build-out: Leaders highlighted AI’s job-augmenting potential and urgent scaling needs, with calls for responsible deployment amid energy and chip demands.* Tariffs as negotiation tool, not endgame: U.S. walk-back on some tariff threats post-dialogue, underscoring pragmatic adaptation in trade amid deficit concerns.* Dialogue amid fragmentation — Sessions stressed diplomacy for security (NATO, Europe defense) and shared prosperity in contested world.Day 3 Recap (January 21)Donald J. Trump – President of the United States – Special Address* Called Greenland a “core national security interest” for U.S. and NATO, part of North America; seeking “immediate negotiations” for acquisition to counter Russia/China threats.* Explicitly stated: “I won’t use force... we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that.” Announced framework for future deal on Greenland/Arctic after meeting NATO’s Mark Rutte.* Touted tariffs as effective negotiation tactic: slashed U.S. trade deficit 77% with no inflation; used threats to secure deals on drug prices, trade imbalances.* Highlighted economic gains: $18 trillion+ investments committed, deficit cut 27%, steel production up, factory construction +41%; predicted stock market doubling.* Emphasized U.S. AI/energy leadership over China; criticized EU green policies for weakening allies.* Geopolitical implication: Prioritizes bilateral deals and strength over traditional multilateral norms.Jensen Huang – Founder and CEO, NVIDIA – Conversation* Described AI as largest infrastructure build-out ever: 5-layer stack (energy, chips, cloud, models, apps).* Stressed AI augments jobs, especially trades like plumbers/electricians for data centers (high salaries, U.S. shortages).* Urged Europe/emerging markets to fuse AI with industry strengths; optimism for broad participation: “Get involved!”* Geopolitical implication: AI race requires massive investment; diffusion key to avoid divides.Jamie Dimon – Chairman and CEO, JPMorgan Chase – Conversation* Warned Trump’s proposed 10% credit card interest cap could cause “economic disaster,” limiting credit access.* Noted AI transforming industries; new players disrupting; markets face rapid change.* Geopolitical implication: Trade/AI policies need careful calibration to avoid unintended economic harm.Abdel Fattah El-Sisi – President of Egypt – Special Address* Focused on regional stability, security, prosperity in Middle East; pushed Gaza peace plan phase 2 with engagement.* Highlighted Egypt’s economic reforms: private sector role, infrastructure (highways, Suez Canal zone).* Geopolitical implication: Calls for dialogue to seize mutual benefits amid global challenges.Other Notable Addresses* Javier Milei – President of Argentina – Special Address: Outlined Argentina’s shift from hyperinflation to fiscal discipline; stressed productivity, AI regulation.* Panels touched European defense (NATO strengthening via diplomacy), AI in health/work (augmentation, upskilling), climate/energy transitions, jobless growth prevention.Day 3 underscored erosion of post-war norms, with calls for dialogue clashing against protectionism, AI as dual-edged sword requiring scale/responsibility, and middle powers navigating U.S.-China-EU frictions through pragmatism over ideology.Today’s Preview Section: Day 4 Agenda Highlights (January 22)* Focus expected on continued themes: global cooperation, growth sources, innovation deployment, planetary boundaries.* Key sessions likely include climate/growth linkages, AI governance, economic shocks prep (debt, disruption).* Potential high-profile: Follow-ups on AI/health, women’s health breakthroughs, humanitarian aid gaps.* Alternative events (e.g., climate-focused debriefs outside official agenda).Scheduled speakers for Day 4:* Special Address by He Lifeng, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China (around 11:20–11:50 CET).* Moderated/introduced by Børge Brende (WEF President) and André Hoffmann (WEF Vice-Chair). Topic centers on China’s perspective on global cooperation, economic growth, and contested world dynamics under the dialogue theme.Other prominent sessions and speakers highlighted in the program (times approximate or thematic groupings; not all have exact slots confirmed publicly yet):* Decade Déjà Vu: Are the 2020s the New 1920s? — Featuring Christine Lagarde (ECB President) and others like Andrew R. (likely Haldane or similar economist). Discusses parallels between current economic/geopolitical risks and historical crises, low-growth era challenges.* Who Brokers Trust Now? — Panel with Tharman Shanmugaratnam (Singapore President), Annalena Baerbock (German Foreign Minister), Alexander De Croo (Belgian PM), Chuck Robbins (Cisco CEO), Comfort Ero (International Crisis Group), and moderator Ishaan Tharoor. Focuses on rebuilding trust amid fragmentation, multilateralism vs. unilateralism.* How Can We Avert a Climate Recession? — Speakers include Al Gore, Ester Baiget (Novonesis CEO), Carsten Schneider, Zhang Lei, Elizabeth Thurbon, Jai Shroff. Explores climate risks to growth, planetary boundaries, and sustainable prosperity models.* Second Act for EU Single Market — Panel with Christine Lagarde, Carlos Cuerpo Caballero (Spanish Economy Minister), Christian Sewing (Deutsche Bank CEO), Valerie Baudson, Annette Mosman, Martin Sandbu. Addresses revitalizing European economic integration and competitiveness.Which session are you watching most closely today? Reply in comments.Primary sources:* WEF Live from Davos Day 3: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/live-from-davos-2026-what-to-know-on-day-3* Trump Special Address: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-donald-trump-president-united-states-america/* El-Sisi Special Address: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-abdel-fattah-el-sisi/For deeper predictions, alliance shifts post-Trump address, or full Rapid Reads archive, upgrade to paid. Free tomorrow: Next-day recap. Share this if it cut through the noise for you.Thanks for reading GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack! This post is public so feel free to share it. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Community notes:* We have switched to video posts with a video for each Rapid Read as a summary and a video for each deep dive as a preview* We have turned on comments for all articles. We now have the staff to monitor and engage. Please don’t be afraid to use it.* We continue to grow at a great clip. Thank you for joining us. 14,478 daily followers. 10,351 subscribers.* Our aim is to publish at least two deep dives per week but only if they are good/great topics. We aren’t going to publish just for the sake of publishing.* We have added a WHY THIS MATTERS NOW to the free content side of the Rapid Read. Be sure to check out the full Rapid Read on the weekend to consider upgrading to paid as on the weekends we are totally free.Executive Summary:* President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on eight European NATO allies including Denmark, France, and Germany over their military support for Greenland, escalating to 25% by June unless the U.S. acquires the island, while simultaneously requiring nations to pay $1 billion for permanent membership on his Peace Board and seeing Hungary’s Viktor Orban accept an invitation to the Gaza-specific board, prompting the EU to halt its trade deal approval, French President Emmanuel Macron to seek activation of the anti-coercion instrument against the U.S., and UK right-wing parties to criticize the US Greenland move, potentially widening intra-EU rifts and shifting U.S. strategic focus toward Polish-led Central and Eastern Europe amid broader geopolitical tensions like U.S. calls for regime change in Iran following over 3,300 protest deaths and a U.S. strike killing an al Qaeda leader in Syria.* Energy sector developments featured Panama’s ports achieving a 3.6% rise in container traffic to 9.9 million TEUs in 2025, Brazil advancing gas supply security through projects like the $150 million ECOMP Itajuipe compressor and $190 million Gasoduto dos Goytacazes pipeline to offset declining Bolivian imports, Cuba facing a worsening energy crisis without Venezuelan oil shipments post-U.S. intervention and turning to Mexico for 12,284 barrels per day despite U.S. threats during USMCA renegotiations, global oil markets grappling with oversupply issues that dwarf concerns over Iran and Russia, and Syrian forces seizing major fields like Omar and Conoco amid regional instability.* Technological and military advancements included the U.S. Army’s $10.4 billion hypersonic missile program missing its 2025 fielding deadline, NASA rolling out the Artemis 2 rocket for a targeted February 6 crewed lunar mission carrying four astronauts on a 10-day journey, Apple partnering with Google on the Gemini AI model to enhance Siri’s personalization and privacy, SK Hynix completing a 1a DRAM upgrade at its Wuxi plant in China, discussions in the UK and France on implementing Australia-style social media bans for under-16s amid documented negative effects, Russia’s Zorky system rivaling Starlink with plans for over 300 satellites by 2027 and serial production starting in 2026, and a space company securing an $805 million contract for 18 missile warning satellites representing 185% of its annual revenue while developing a medium-lift rocket to capture niche markets ignored by SpaceX.See the full stories below—plus paid subscribers get our take, detailed analysis and predictionsWHY THIS MATTERS NOWPresident Trump’s 10% tariffs on goods from eight NATO allies (Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Finland, UK) effective February 1, escalating to 25% in June unless the U.S. acquires Greenland, shifts transatlantic trade flows and defense burden-sharing by raising import costs for U.S. consumers and European exporters while redirecting U.S. Arctic strategic capital toward Central-Eastern Europe over the next 6-12 months.Market Snapshot as of publication time noted above (not to be relied on for trading purposes):Detailed News Summary:Iran’s Supreme Leader Concedes Thousands Killed In Unresthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/iran-media-claim-partial-internet-return-after-record-blackoutIran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged that several thousand people died during recent anti-government protests, accusing the U.S. and Israel of aiding the killings while vowing not to lead the country into war but to punish both domestic and international criminals. The unrest, sparked by a currency crisis, led to a nine-day internet blackout affecting 92 million people, with partial restoration reported but overall connectivity remaining at about 2% of normal levels. Human rights groups estimated 3,500 deaths and over 22,000 detentions, aligning with Khamenei’s toll, amid accusations from President Trump that Khamenei destroyed the country through unprecedented violence. Local media noted gradual easing of restrictions, though security conditions might prolong some measures.Panama Ports See 3.6% Rise In TEU Container Traffic In 2025https://gcaptain.com/panama-ports-see-3-6-rise-in-teu-container-traffic-in-2025/Panama’s ports experienced a 3.6% increase in container traffic to 9.9 million TEUs in 2025, as reported by the Maritime Authority, highlighting their role in supporting the Panama Canal’s global trade connectivity. Key terminals showed varied growth, with SSA Marine’s Manzanillo International Terminal handling 2.9 million TEUs up 5%, Panama Ports Company’s Balboa at 2.7 million TEUs up 2%, Cristobal up 9% to 1.2 million TEUs, and Colon Container Terminal surging 10% to 1.7 million TEUs. The only decline was at Panama International Terminal, down 2% to 1.4 million TEUs, amid an overall rise in empty container repositioning that underscores Panama’s strategic hub status. Officials emphasized this growth reaffirms the nation’s importance for regional equipment redistribution.Army Hypersonic Missile Fielding Falters on Missed Deadlinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/army-hypersonic-missile-fielding-falters-on-missed-deadlineThe U.S. Army has missed its self-imposed deadline for fielding the first hypersonic weapon, highlighting delays in one of the Pentagon’s top priorities despite the responsible unit being fully trained and ready. The missile, part of a $10.4 billion program, remains unprepared for deployment, contradicting the Army’s recent statement to achieve fielding by the end of 2025. This setback underscores ongoing challenges in advancing hypersonic capabilities amid high expectations for rapid development. Officials confirmed the missed timeline this week, signaling potential impacts on broader military modernization efforts.Trump to Impose Tariffs on Some European Nations Over Greenlandhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/trump-to-impose-tariffs-on-some-european-nations-over-greenlandPresident Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from eight European NATO allies including Denmark, Norway, and France starting February 1, escalating to 25% in June unless Greenland is fully purchased by the U.S., targeting nations that dispatched personnel for training in the territory. The move drew sharp rebukes from EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, who warned of undermined transatlantic relations and a potential downward spiral, while French President Emmanuel Macron called it unacceptable and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson rejected blackmail. EU lawmakers, led by Manfred Weber, indicated halting last year’s trade deal, which imposed 15% U.S. tariffs on EU goods and 50% on steel, amid questions over Trump’s legal authority under acts like the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen expressed surprise, emphasizing enhanced Arctic security, as officials agreed to a working group but remained in stalemate with the U.S.NASA rolls Artemis 2 rocket to the pad ahead of historic moon launchhttps://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-rolls-artemis-2-rocket-to-the-pad-ahead-of-historic-moon-launchNASA’s Space Launch System rocket for the Artemis 2 mission began its 4-mile rollout from the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center on January 17, 2026, heading to Launch Complex-39B for systems checks and a wet dress rehearsal targeted for February 2, with the earliest launch on February 6. The 322-foot-tall rocket, weighing 2,870 tons when fueled and generating 8.8 million pounds of thrust, will carry astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen on a 10-day lunar flyby mission, testing Orion’s life support systems. This first crewed Artemis flight follows the uncrewed Artemis 1 in 2022, which faced delays from leaks and weather, and aims to pave the way for Artemis 3’s lunar landing targeted after 2027. The crew, who witnessed the rollout, will follow a free-return trajectory around the moon for safe return without entering orbit.Trump says 8 European nations face tariffs rising to 25% if Greenland isn’t sold to the U.S.https://thehill.com/policy/international/5694156-donald-trump-regime-change-iran/President Trump called for regime change in Iran, criticizing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a sick man responsible for destroying the country through unprecedented violence and killing thousands to maintain control. He emphasized that leadership should be about respect rather than fear and death, urging new leadership amid protests where over 3,000 have died and 22,000 been detained. Khamenei accused the U.S. and Israel of backing the unrest to dominate Iran militarily, politically, and economically, claiming evidence of foreign involvement in killings and damage to infrastructure like power grids and banks. Trump, who canceled meetings with Iranian officials and suggested help for demonstrators, backed off military threats after executions reportedly stopped but reiterat

GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Executive Summary:* President Trump is pushing tech giants to cover power costs for AI data centers while ordering emergency power auctions to support them, oil prices have risen 1% due to persistent supply risks, China has halted electricity imports from Russia over pricing disputes, Saudi Arabia has pledged $500 million in aid to Yemen following the UAE’s withdrawal, Venezuelan banks are receiving $300 million in oil revenues for market exchange, new power plants are under construction to meet demand, and LNG exporters are excited about growth potential but worried about geopolitical disruptions in 2026, underscoring a dynamic global energy landscape shaped by policy interventions and market volatilities.* In Uganda, President Museveni was declared the winner of the election amid reports of at least seven deaths from violence, an internet blackout, delays, security forces storming an opposition MP’s home killing 10 people, and the abduction of opposition leader Bobi Wine, while in South Korea former President Yoon was sentenced to five years for attempting martial law, Iran’s military support in Ukraine is diminishing, the US has imposed sanctions on Houthi funding networks, Myanmar has begun its defense in a UN genocide case, tens of thousands protested outside the US Embassy in Cuba, Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez has consolidated power after Maduro’s ouster, and President Trump has invited leaders like Milei and Erdogan to a Gaza ‘Board of Peace’, highlighting escalating political instabilities and international diplomatic efforts across multiple regions.* The US Navy revealed specifications for the FF(X) frigate to bolster naval power, the US approved a $1.5 billion plan for a Peru naval base to counter Chinese influence near a key port, Russia may start sea trials for the Khabarovsk nuclear submarine carrying Poseidon in 2026, NASA aims to launch Artemis 2 astronauts to the moon next month with the rocket rollout on January 17, Elon Musk stated Tesla is nearly finished with the AI5 chip design and progressing on AI6, the Supreme Court will issue opinions on Tuesday including a pending tariff ruling, President Trump floated tariffs on countries opposing US acquisition of Greenland which faces resource extraction hurdles, OpenAI committed billions to chip deals excluding some major players, and the US is scrutinizing big tech talent acquisitions, reflecting advancements in military, space, and technology sectors amid regulatory and strategic shifts.See the full stories below—plus paid subscribers get our take, detailed analysis and predictionsMarket Snapshot as of publication time noted above (not to be relied on for trading purposes):Detailed News Summary:Japanese Premier Takaichi Stakes All on Unpredictable Electionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/japanese-premier-takaichi-stakes-all-on-unpredictable-electionJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has dissolved parliament and called for a snap election, risking her leadership in a contest marked by economic uncertainty and shifting voter sentiments. Her Liberal Democratic Party faces strong opposition from a united front of rival parties criticizing her handling of inflation, which has reached 3.5%, and foreign relations with China. Polls indicate a close race, with potential for the LDP to lose its majority for the first time in years, potentially leading to coalition governments or policy overhauls in areas like defense spending, which Takaichi has increased by 8%. Analysts predict that the outcome could significantly impact Japan’s role in regional security alliances amid ongoing global tensions.Japanese Premier Takaichi Stakes All on Unpredictable Electionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/japanese-premier-takaichi-stakes-all-on-unpredictable-electionJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has dissolved parliament and called for a snap election, risking her leadership in a contest marked by economic uncertainty and shifting voter sentiments. Her Liberal Democratic Party faces strong opposition from a united front of rival parties criticizing her handling of inflation, which has reached 3.5%, and foreign relations with China. Polls indicate a close race, with potential for the LDP to lose its majority for the first time in years, potentially leading to coalition governments or policy overhauls in areas like defense spending, which Takaichi has increased by 8%. Analysts predict that the outcome could significantly impact Japan’s role in regional security alliances amid ongoing global tensions.Uganda Holds Elections Despite Delays and Internet Blackouthttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/world/africa/uganda-election-museveni.htmlUganda conducted its general elections amid significant challenges, including polling delays caused by logistical issues and a nationwide internet blackout imposed by the government to curb misinformation. Incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, seeking his seventh term, faced main challenger Bobi Wine, a popular musician-turned-politician who accused the regime of voter suppression and intimidation. Observers reported isolated incidents of violence, with security forces deploying heavily in opposition strongholds, leading to concerns over the election’s fairness from international monitors like the African Union. Preliminary results suggest Museveni maintains a lead, but opposition claims of fraud could spark post-election unrest in a country with a history of political turbulence.At least seven killed in Uganda violence, Museveni dominates election resultshttps://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ugandas-president-museveni-takes-strong-lead-early-election-results-2026-01-16/Violence marred Uganda’s election as at least seven people were killed in clashes between security forces and opposition supporters, with reports of gunfire and arrests in Kampala and other cities. Early results show President Yoweri Museveni leading with over 65% of the vote, solidifying his decades-long rule despite allegations of rigging from challenger Bobi Wine. The internet blackout and delays in vote counting have fueled tensions, prompting calls for calm from international observers who noted irregularities in the process. Opposition leaders vow to challenge the results in court, potentially prolonging instability in the East African nation.Ugandan opposition MP says security forces stormed home killing 10 peoplehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/16/uganda-election-early-results-show-museveni-in-lead-as-violence-reportedAn Ugandan opposition MP reported that security forces raided his home, resulting in the deaths of 10 people, including family members and aides, amid escalating violence during the election period. Early results indicate President Yoweri Museveni is in the lead, but the opposition accuses the government of widespread fraud and suppression. The internet blackout has hindered communication and reporting, drawing criticism from human rights groups who demand investigations into the killings. This incident highlights the deepening political crisis in Uganda, where tensions between the ruling party and opposition have reached a boiling point.Trump to Push for Tech Giants to Pay for Power Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-01-16/trump-to-push-for-tech-giants-to-pay-for-power-costs-videoPresident Trump announced plans to require major technology companies to contribute to electricity costs associated with their data centers, emphasizing the strain on the national grid from AI and cloud computing demands. In a video address, he argued that firms like Google and Amazon should fund infrastructure upgrades, potentially through new fees or partnerships with utilities. This policy aims to address power shortages in key states, with estimates showing data centers consuming up to 8% of US electricity by 2030. Critics warn it could increase operational costs for tech giants, impacting innovation, while supporters see it as fair burden-sharing.Former South Korean President Yoon Sentenced to Five Years Over Martial Law Attempthttps://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/16/former-south-korean-president-yoon-sentenced-to-five-years-over-martial-law-attempt/Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol received a five-year prison sentence for his attempt to impose martial law, which the court deemed an unconstitutional abuse of power aimed at suppressing political dissent. The ruling follows months of investigations into Yoon’s actions during a period of domestic unrest, where he deployed military forces without parliamentary approval. Prosecutors highlighted evidence of Yoon’s intent to consolidate authority amid low approval ratings and corruption scandals. This verdict marks a significant moment in South Korea’s democracy, potentially deterring future leaders from similar overreaches and strengthening judicial oversight.Iran’s Military Role in Ukraine Is Clearly Shrinkinghttps://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Irans-Military-Role-in-Ukraine-Is-Clearly-Shrinking.htmlIran’s involvement in supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict has notably decreased, with shipments of drones and missiles dropping by 70% over the past year due to international sanctions and domestic production constraints. Analysts attribute this shrinkage to pressure from the US and EU, which have targeted Iranian suppliers, leading to logistical disruptions. Despite earlier contributions that bolstered Russian offensives, Tehran’s focus has shifted to internal economic issues and regional conflicts in the Middle East. This development could alter the dynamics of the Ukraine war, reducing Russia’s access to key weaponry and influencing global geopolitical alignments.Saudi Pledges $500mn To Yemen After UAE Withdrawalhttps://www.mees.com/2026/1/16/news-in-brief/saudi-pledges-500mn-to-yemen-after-uae-wi

GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Executive Summary:* President Trump’s executive order firewalling Venezuelan oil revenues held in the US, coupled with potential sanction lifts and meetings with Big Oil executives committing up to $100 billion for reconstruction, has swelled oil held at sea to over 29 million barrels amid naval blockades, while Maduro’s fall defuses Guyana’s border risks enabling its production surge to potentially rewrite the global energy map alongside Arctic and Greenland developments, Ethiopia’s $12.5 billion Africa’s largest airport hub, China’s gas growth reducing LNG demand by millions of tons, and Russia’s diversified economy remaining resilient even if oil prices drop below $60 per barrel due to higher taxes filling revenue voids.* Escalating Iranian protests have resulted in 65 confirmed deaths amid internet blackouts and IRGC warnings of intensified crackdowns signaling a potential regime crisis, as US forces executed large-scale strikes on over 70 ISIS targets in Syria using precision munitions in retaliation for killing two soldiers and a civilian interpreter, while Trump’s threats on Venezuela and Greenland heighten Canadian fears of annexation potentially leading to a 2% GDP NATO defense boost, alongside Sudan’s war displacing 13.6 million and nearing health system collapse with 21 million in acute food insecurity, and Cuba’s faltering economy under CIA assessment not inevitably toppling the regime despite lost Venezuelan oil subsidies.* China’s AI leaders warn of a widening US gap after a $1 billion IPO week amid resource disparities, as Elon Musk pledges X’s algorithm open-source in seven days to enhance transparency, FCC approves SpaceX’s 7,500 additional Starlink satellites boosting global connectivity, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program surpasses 1,300 aircraft with record 191 deliveries in 2025 amid combat successes, crypto ATMs face US bans with $240 million scam losses in 2025’s first half, and OpenAI integrates ChatGPT into healthcare for personalized advice while SRAM emerges as an AI inference alternative to HBM despite capacity limits.See the full stories below—plus paid subscribers get our take, detailed analysis and predictionsMarket Snapshot as of publication time noted above (not to be relied on for trading purposes):Detailed News Summary:Farming Without Subsidies: Could New Zealand’s Approach Work Elsewhere?https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-01-10/should-the-world-move-away-from-farm-subsidies-videoNew Zealand’s abrupt removal of agricultural subsidies in the 1980s forced farmers to innovate and focus on market-driven efficiency, resulting in a more sustainable and dynamic industry that enhanced environmental practices and organic matter buildup. Experts like former US Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman and New Zealand’s Lockwood Smith discuss how this model could reform global agriculture by reducing distortions in trade and markets. However, applying it elsewhere, such as in the US with entrenched corn and ethanol subsidies, faces significant political resistance despite potential benefits for worldwide food systems.Venezuela Oil Being Held at Sea Swellshttps://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/venezuela_oil_being_held_at_sea_swells-10-jan-2026-182731-article/?rss=trueVenezuelan crude oil volumes held at sea have risen to over 29 million barrels, the highest in more than three years, largely concentrated in Asian waters where China serves as the primary importer amid preparations for potential supply disruptions. This surge follows US intervention, including the seizure of President Maduro and a naval blockade on oil flows, creating uncertainty over the cargoes’ destinations. US officials have clarified that legitimate trade to China will not be restricted, differentiating it from illicit dealings with Iran and Russia.Trump’s Venezuela, Greenland Threats Make Canada Fear It’s Nexthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/trump-s-venezuela-greenland-threats-make-canada-fear-it-s-nextPresident Trump’s aggressive actions in seizing Venezuelan President Maduro and pushing for Greenland control have revived fears in Canada of potential US annexation, prompting discussions on bolstering defenses like expanding civil reserves and drone strategies. Canadian experts warn of economic coercion over military invasion, with 85% of trade vulnerable, urging diversification to reduce US dependence by doubling non-US exports in a decade. Geopolitical similarities to Greenland amplify concerns, leading to increased military spending to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target amid eroded US reliability.Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Program Crosses 1,300 Aircraft With Record 2025 Deliverieshttp://worlddefencenews.blogspot.com/2026/01/lockheed-martins-f-35-program-crosses.htmlLockheed Martin delivered a record 191 F-35 aircraft in 2025, surpassing previous highs and pushing the global fleet to nearly 1,300 jets across 12 nations, with milestones including one million flight hours and TR-3 software completion. The program finalized $24 billion contracts for up to 296 more jets and sustainment deals, while countries like Italy and Denmark expanded orders. These achievements underscore the F-35’s unmatched reliability and lethality, positioning it for future technological advancements amid combat successes.What the Big Oil executives told Trump about investing in Venezuelahttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/10/what-the-big-oil-executives-told-trump-about-investing-in-venezuela.htmlIn a White House meeting, executives from ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron briefed President Trump on Venezuelan investments, emphasizing the need for legal reforms and highlighting the country’s current “uninvestable” status due to past asset seizures. Exxon CEO Darren Woods noted readiness to assess assets but stressed significant changes required, while Conoco’s Ryan Lance advocated for debt restructuring and energy system overhaul. Chevron expressed optimism for rapid production increases, but Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested smaller firms might lead initial efforts under US security guarantees.Iranian Guards Issue Stark Warning as Tehran Struggles to Contain Protestshttps://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/01/10/iranian-guards-issue-stark-warning-as-tehran-struggles-to-contain-protests/Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that security is a “red line” amid escalating protests over inflation that evolved into demands to end clerical rule, resulting in 65 deaths and over 2,500 arrests. Authorities imposed internet blackouts and used live fire, accusing protesters of foreign collaboration, while opposition figure Reza Pahlavi called for strikes. International leaders condemned the violence, urging restraint, as the unrest challenges the regime’s stability amid economic hardships and sanctions.China AI Leaders Warn of Widening Gap With US After $1B IPO Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/china-ai-leaders-warn-of-widening-gap-with-us-after-1b-ipo-weekAt Beijing’s AGI-Next summit, leaders from Alibaba, Tencent, and Zhipu warned of China’s widening AI gap with the US, estimating less than 20% chance of breakthroughs in three to five years due to resource disparities and US export controls. Despite over $1 billion raised in IPOs by firms like Zhipu and MiniMax, internal competition hampers progress, with calls for collaboration to advance AGI. Chinese firms prioritize practical applications, but US advantages in compute and innovation may prolong the divide.Elon Musk Says X to Make Algorithm Open Source in Seven Dayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/elon-musk-says-x-to-make-its-algorithm-open-source-in-seven-daysElon Musk announced X will open-source its recommendation algorithm within seven days, repeating every four weeks with developer notes, amid regulatory scrutiny over content moderation and misinformation in Europe, France, Indonesia, and the UK. The move integrates Grok AI to personalize feeds, addressing user complaints and “For You” bugs. Greater transparency may mitigate pressures but risks exploitation, as X navigates past rejections of algorithm demands deemed politically motivated.CEOs on Guard as Trump Rattles Companies With Series of Edictshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-10/ceos-on-guard-as-trump-rattles-companies-with-series-of-edictsPresident Trump’s second-term edicts blend deregulation with populist interventions, creating uncertainty for CEOs through actions like controlling Venezuelan oil, threatening Greenland seizure, altering vaccine schedules, and potentially disrupting wind power. Oil executives engage directly on Venezuela investments, while pharmaceutical and energy sectors face shifts. Businesses anticipate mixed impacts, with deregulation benefits overshadowed by risks requiring adaptive strategies amid political demands.The crypto ATM’s days in America may be numberedhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/10/bitcoin-crypto-atm-scam-fraud-regulation.htmlCrypto ATMs face mounting regulatory threats due to scams, with Spokane banning them and states like Arizona considering restrictions after $240 million in losses in 2025’s first half, often targeting vulnerable elderly. Industry advocates argue for enforcement over bans, emphasizing ATMs’ role in financial inclusion for underbanked populations despite high fees. Future outlook suggests constrained growth, shifting focus to education amid crypto’s maturation as an investment asset.Why Russia’s economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall[Why Russia’s economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall](Why Russia’s economy is unlikely to collapse even if oil prices fall)Russia’s economy demonstrates resilience against falling oil prices through diversification, budget surpluses, and low public debt below 20% of GDP, with oil revenues halved but offset by ruble devaluation maintain

Summary:In this episode, we discuss China's significant demographic changes, particularly its aging population and declining workforce, examining the causes like the One-Child Policy and low fertility rates. We analyze the economic impact, including strains on the labor market, manufacturing, and technology sectors, as well as the challenges to social systems like pensions and healthcare. Furthermore, we explores the global effects of China's demographic shift on supply chains and trade. Finally, we assess China's policy responses to these issues and outline potential future economic scenarios, emphasizing the lessons for other nations facing similar demographic challenges. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode we discuss how recent advancements in AI applications are transforming various industries, from healthcare diagnostics to manufacturing efficiency. A key element is the significant U.S. decision to ease export restrictions on advanced AI chips, specifically to Saudi Arabia, providing them with powerful Nvidia GPUs. This move is framed as a strategic effort to counter China's influence and bolster the U.S. tech export market. Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030 plans to become a global AI leader, fueled by this chip deal, are highlighted, focusing on building large data centers and developing sovereign AI capabilities. We also explore the geopolitical and economic shifts created by this partnership, noting the potential for the Gulf region to become a major AI hub, while also raising concerns about security risks and ethical implications. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we discuss the complex dynamics impacting the global oil market in 2025, highlighting how U.S. tariffs and trade tensions are suppressing demand and increasing costs for both refiners and U.S. shale producers. We also analyze OPEC+'s strategy of increasing production despite low prices, a move primarily aimed at disciplining non-compliant members like Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's consistent overproduction, driven by economic needs and international oil company operations, is seen as a significant factor undermining OPEC+ unity and contributing to a global supply surplus. The collective result of these forces is a volatile market with downward pressure on prices and significant risks for oil-dependent economies. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode. we examine the UK-US bilateral trade deal, announced in May 2025, as the first trade pact under a second Trump presidency, highlighting its focus on reducing tariffs and fostering AI cooperation, though it falls short of a comprehensive free trade agreement. The deal emerged from negotiations pressured by Trump's tariff threats, revealing his pragmatic flexibility for allies while retaining leverage. Economically, it offers limited gains and faces risks, including potential inflation in the US and agricultural standard issues for the UK, setting a precedent for other nations navigating Trump's trade agenda and raising questions about the sustainability of his tariff strategy. Ultimately, the agreement's technical details and political framing demonstrate a tension between ambitious rhetoric and a more modest reality. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we examine Germany's decision to classify the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization in May 2025, a significant action against a major parliamentary party. We explore the legal basis for this designation, rooted in Germany's Basic Law and the Federal Constitutional Protection Act, which aims to protect the democratic order. The consequences, including enhanced surveillance and potential operational restrictions on the AfD, are detailed, along with the party's legal challenges and the likelihood of success in court. We also address the growing threat the AfD's electoral success poses to the government and the ongoing debate regarding free speech versus combating extremism within Germany and across Europe. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:IN this episode, we discuss the April 28, 2025 blackout across Spain and Portugal, analyzing its causes, impacts, and lessons learned for the global energy transition. We highlight how a rapid loss of solar generation in a grid with low inertia and limited storage and interconnections led to the massive outage, impacting millions of people and causing significant economic losses. We emphasize the technical challenges posed by the low energy and power density of renewables and argue for investments in grid modernization, storage, dispatchable backups, and enhanced interconnections to ensure grid resilience and balance renewable integration with reliability. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we collectively analyze the ongoing conflict in Yemen, focusing on the U.S.-led air campaign against the Houthi movement and its limited effectiveness in stopping Houthi attacks. We highlight the economic disparity of the conflict, where costly U.S. munitions are used against inexpensive Houthi drones, and explore the significant global economic impact of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. We also consider the potential necessity and significant risks of a ground operation to counter the resilient Houthis and discuss realistic timelines for suppressing Houthi capabilities and achieving long-term stability in Yemen. Ultimately, we suggest that airstrikes alone are insufficient and emphasize the need for a multifaceted strategy incorporating diplomacy, support for local forces, and addressing the humanitarian crisis to avoid a protracted conflict. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we discuss the immense challenges associated with the Trump administration's 2025 goal of negotiating dozens of bilateral trade agreements simultaneously within a 90-day period. The key difficulties identified include a severe shortage of qualified staff at the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), the technical complexity of each agreement requiring specialized expertise and data analysis, and the staggering man-hours necessary for preparation, negotiation, and implementation. We also highlight logistical hurdles like coordinating across time zones and managing stakeholder input, drawing lessons from past negotiations like the USMCA and EU-Mercosur talks which took significantly longer with fewer partners. Mitigating these challenges will require strategic prioritization of key allies, technological advancements, and a significant expansion of USTR capacity. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode we extensively examine Belarus's multifaceted situation following a potential resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. We analyze the political ramifications for Lukashenko's regime and the opposition, considering Russia's influence and domestic pressures. We also explore the economic challenges stemming from Belarus's dependence on Russia and Western sanctions, along with potential shifts in trade and investment. Furthermore, we investigate the social dynamics, including public sentiment, cultural identity, and migration. Finally, we assess the military and international relations landscape, focusing on Belarus's alliance with Russia and its strained ties with the West. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we examine whether countries like China and Japan could use their holdings of U.S. Treasury debt as leverage against potential American tariffs. We consider the risks and potential consequences of such financial weaponization for both the United States and the debt-holding nations, including impacts on bond markets, currency values, and broader economic stability. While theoretically possible, we suggest that the U.S. financial system's resilience and the potential for self-harm make this strategy less appealing than alternative economic or geopolitical responses, like supply chain manipulation or shifting trade alliances. Ultimately, we explore the complex interplay between trade policy, financial power, and the limitations of economic coercion in the current global landscape. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we extensively cover the ongoing and complex trade relationship between the United States and India, particularly focusing on India's strong interest in securing a comprehensive trade agreement. India is urgently pursuing this deal due to rising global trade volatility and US protectionist policies, aiming to protect its economic interests and strengthen its geopolitical standing. We highlight key obstacles in negotiations, including disagreements over tariffs, non-tariff barriers like agricultural subsidies and data localization, and intellectual property rights. Furthermore, we examine the economic and geopolitical motivations behind India's eagerness for the agreement, along with the potential benefits and risks for both nations should the negotiations succeed or fail. Finally, we analyze the technical and political challenges inherent in reaching a consensus within the current global trade environment. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we outline a significant downturn in the U.S. shale industry in 2025, marked by low oil and gas prices stemming from oversupply and new trade tariffs. This situation is squeezing producer profits as break-even costs exceed market prices, leading to a production slowdown with reduced drilling and capped wells. A mismatch between shale crude and refinery capacity is also keeping gasoline prices high despite lower crude costs. These factors collectively threaten a future supply crunch and potential price spikes, negatively impacting the U.S. trade deficit and broader economy. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode we thoroughly examine the critical distinction between mining and refining metals, particularly in the context of the United States and China. We highlight China's dominant position in the energy-intensive, water-heavy, and environmentally impactful refining stage of critical minerals essential for modern technologies. We detail the regulatory, economic, and public sentiment factors contributing to the U.S.'s reluctance to significantly engage in domestic refining. Consequently, the U.S. relies heavily on China for processed metals, creating geopolitical and economic interdependencies. We also explore the resource intensity and environmental consequences of refining, contrasting them with mining operations. Finally, we discuss the strategic implications of this global division of labor and potential pathways for the U.S. to enhance its refining capabilities or secure stable supply chains. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this episode, we extensively compare SWIFT, the established global financial messaging network, with CIPS, China's burgeoning cross-border payment system, analyzing their historical development, technical capabilities, advantages, and disadvantages. We explore SWIFT's dominance, reach, and reliability alongside its vulnerabilities to geopolitical influence and technological limitations. Conversely, we examine CIPS's potential as a sanctions-resistant alternative, its role in promoting the RMB, its modern features, and the constraints hindering its global expansion, ultimately considering whether CIPS can evolve into a significant rival to SWIFT in the future financial landscape. The analysis incorporates economic, technological, and geopolitical factors influencing the trajectory of both systems. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:In this article, we describe the escalating crisis in Somalia, where the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group Al Shabaab is gaining significant territory and threatens to overtake the capital, Mogadishu. This situation is compared to the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan but is argued to be potentially more dangerous due to Somalia's strategic coastal location, Al Shabaab's ties to global terror networks and financial strength, and its alliances with groups like the Houthis and potentially Iran and Russia. We analyze the unique characteristics of Al Shabaab compared to the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and ISIS, highlighting its potential as a long-term global threat. Finally, we discuss implications for the United States and explore policy options for the Trump administration to address the looming crisis and prevent the establishment of a new terror epicenter. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe