Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

We’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest FX Tactical. After some time of tariff headlines driving currencies, interest rate differentials are now back at wheel driving currency movements. And with the RBNZ clearly needing to do more relative to other central banks, the Kiwi dollar has come under significant downwards pressure. So, we’re diving into the performance and outlook for the Kiwi dollar against the Greenback, Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. And as always, we couldn’t resist throwing Wilkie a curveball currency pair. This time, it felt only fitting to ask about the Krona (Sweden’s currency) given the appointment of Dr Anna Breman as the incoming RBNZ Governor. We also take some time to compare the Swedish and New Zealand economy.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the appropriate monetary policy setting. Weakness remains broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. And over the year the economy has shrunk a further 0.6%. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. But we're not. And the weakness demands more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re delving into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. As well as unpacking the economic drivers in wildlife black markets. Brendan talks us through real-world examples involving rhinos and crocodiles to show how market-based approaches can support sustainable protection. We also explore how the fall in interest rates and a crashing equity market during the 2008 GFC led to a surge in unscrupulous investment in elephant ivory—driving up poaching levels. Across all three cases, one economic principle stands out: incentives matter. If you missed part one, be sure to check out last week’s episode, “The economics of climate change”, where we explored how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID, the global and national challenges we face, and the policy solutions available to New Zealand today. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zealand is already ahead of the curve when it comes to renewable energy thanks to our abundance of hydro, wind, and geothermal resources. However, Brendan highlights that even with our strong renewables’ foundation, maintaining and expanding this advantage comes with its own set of challenges. We also touch on the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in New Zealand. Discussions around insurance retreat and the reclassification of flood-prone zones are becoming more pressing. And the ripple effects of what this will mean for some houses and mortgages remains front of mind. Impacts like these underscore a key theme of this week’s episode that action is needed. Both in mitigation and adaptation. Brendan shares his insights on some of the most effective strategies and solutions that can be implemented to improve economic and environmental outcomes.This is the first of a two-part episode. Next week, we’ll delve into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. So, if you’re curious about crocodiles, elephants, rhinos, and the economics behind protecting them, be sure to tune in next week!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Adrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, we were heading into the US election, central banks were at the start of the easing cycle, and the Kiwi dollar was climbing towards 64c. Today, tariffs dominate the headlines and uncertainty remains elevated.In all that, the Kiwi dollar has lost flight. But it’s a double-edged sword. A lower Kiwi is good news for exporters, not so much for importers. Adrian shares all the anecdotes he's hearing from his clients across the importer and exporter space, and how they're positioning themselves ahead of the coming summer months and into 2026Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not for the steeper-than-expected slide in the participation rate. Meanwhile, details under the headline rate portray an even weaker reality. Combined with weak underlying price pressures and the fact that inflation expectations have remained comfortably within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band, all the data to date supports, if not demands, further rate relief. We should see a 25bps cut next week to 3%. And continue to call for an eventual move to 2.5%.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big moves. Why? Because markets are coming around to what we’ve been saying for quite some time now: that tariffs will have an impact on demand and weaken global growth. We’re seeing that start to play out now. And markets are factoring it in. The market moves follow a week of woefully weak data. No matter where you looked, whether it was US payrolls, which incredibly disappointed, or Aussie’s soft inflation report, the impacts of tariffs and their accompanying uncertainty are becoming notable. Central banks are coming around to seeing the tariffs shock for what they are: a negative demand shock which will require lower interest rates. The same message applies here at home. And markets have responded to that. So, tune in as we cover all the latest moves in equities, rates and currency. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the bottom of the South Island, and everywhere in between, we’ve just wrapped up our annual deep dive into economic performance across the country. So how does your region stack up?For the most part, regions are performing better than last year. But they’re still far from their best. The average score across the motu lifted from a 3 out of 10 to 4. Meanwhile the South Island continues to outperform the North. Otago and Southland take the crown for best performance across the country. All while Wellington remained the weakest performer. Although to give them some credit, their score did improve from last year.Our look into the regions is extensive. So, alongside this week’s episode, be sure to also check out the full report here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/the-regional-divide-widens-as-everything-just-gets-better-the-further-you-go-south/It’s packed with even more regional insights, including some amazing anecdotes from our business bankers on the ground. Plus of course, more pretty charts. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is driving headline higher. But domestic price pressures, on balance, continue to cool. It’s all about what’s really going on under the hood of the headline number. So, tune in as we break down the latest Kiwi inflation report. From what’s specifically driving the rise and where price pressures are coming off. Spoiler, it's the Interest rate-sensitive parts of the consumer basket that are notably weak. And that matters for the outlook on monetary policy. With excess capacity still sloshing around the economy, domestic inflation is set to continue easing. And taken together, this latest print adds weight to our case for more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the end of the cutting cycle? Or is it really just a pause? And why pause now? What will influence the August decision?... We’re diving into all the questions you might have following last week’s decision. Policymakers around the globe are still grappling with trade tariffs and the inflationary implications. High uncertainty has forced central banks, from Wellington to Washington, into a wait and see mode. But the RBNZ's bias, rightly remains tilted toward further easing. We continue to advocate for a stimulatory (helpful) cash rate of 2.5%. From our stalled housing market recovery, to plummeting net migration and contracting manufacturing activity, signs of weakness are clear. Weakness, which is in itself, disinflationary. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the current climate. Optimism for the months ahead continues to grow, but the recession scars are still fresh. Cost pressures have eased but remain elevated. All the while firms' pricing power has diminished. It’s a combination that continues to squeeze and hurt profitability. As Greg points out, the focus for many businesses is squarely on revenue. It’s clear that a sustained recovery in demand has yet to be seen. And it’s why we still advocate for more rate relief. We also dive into business appetite towards investment & hiring, including the impacts of the Government’s ‘Investment Boost‘ scheme so far. Plus we cover the divergences in activity across sectors and regions.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Our Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines suggest the Kiwi should be in the 50s. Yet here we are with the bird close to breaching 61c. Broader themes are in play. Some are calling it Judgement Day for the US dollar. We discuss why that view is a tad bit dramatic.But it’s not all about the Kiwi dollar (NZDUSD). We also go through how the Kiwi is holding up against the Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen.You can read our latest FX Tactical here: “Vexing volatility, unusual uncertainty, & polarising protectionism”Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in the Middle East are pushing around global oil prices . These days it feels like there is cost pressure after cost pressure hitting households and businesses. All while growth is rather lacklustre. The word “stagflation” has been circulating both here at home and in the US. But we’re nowhere near that yet. So, we’re sitting down and talking about the recent lift in inflation and how Central Banks, like the Reserve Bank, should look through these short-term inflation spikes. After all, monetary policy is set for the medium term. And in the medium term, the real risk is that inflation undershoots the RBNZ 2% mid-point. Plus, Jarrod talks about his favourite (imaginary) tattoo: The Phillips Curve. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy.  And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade has seen us downgrade our profile for Kiwi growth. So what does that mean for parts of the economy? We unpack our latest forecasts for the housing market, interest rates, inflation, and the labour market. You may be thinking how do you even forecast in times like these? We go through the how, including delving into two alternative paths the Kiwi economy could take. And we explain why forecasting is a very helpful tool precisely in times like these.Check out our full outlook note here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/weve-updated-our-forecasts-as-we-think-our-way-through-tumultuous-times/Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this week we’re looking at some of the latest high frequency data out of the US to see how things are holding up amid tariff turmoil and friendship fallouts.We’ve seen a front loading of activity in anticipation of tariffs. And we may now be seeing the start of the unwind. After a surge in imports earlier this year, April saw the sharpest drop in U.S. imports on record. Meanwhile, sentiment data is sliding too. US PMIs continue to track further into contraction. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the details...Now, if you just read the statement, the RBNZ’s easing bias was strengthened.  The economic forecasts were lowered, and another 25bp rate cut was inserted into the OCR track. But if you listened to the press conference or noted the dissenting 5-1 vote, the RBNZ’s top brass were crystal clear in their clouded uncertainty. So how do we make sense of it? Where to from here? And, how have markets responded? We’re cover it all. The key takeaway: more rate cuts are coming. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage pass to Budget 2025. We’re talking through our experience at the Budget lock up in Banquet Hall. Everything from our rapid analysis, to even our (sad) lunch experience. We break down Treasury's new forecasts and delve into some of the new policies announced. Set against a challenging backdrop, Budget 2025 revealed an inevitable downgrade to the economic and fiscal outlook. A return to surplus is still achieved, but you’ll need a magnifying glass to see it. And the weaker reality, simply means more debt and issuance. Most importantly though, from our view, "the growth" budget still doesn't offer a lot in the way of growth. And reinforces the need for the RBNZ to deliver more stimulus to help the economy out of recession. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the courier and logistics industry and what it tells us about the broader economy. As Steve aptly puts it, rapid delivery services serve as a bellwether for the economy. When the market shifts, they’re the first to experience it. So, what’s the industry signalling for the Kiwi economy? According to Steve and his team, greenshoots are not in sight. Enquiries are low and clients are still price-sensitive. Not quite the signs of a recovering economy. On the ground (literally) anecdotes like these from Urgent Couriers reinforce our position: The Kiwi economy demands more rate relief. We also cover everything from sustainability in the logistics field to the future of logistics amid major technological advancements. Think self-driving trucks, drones, and other emerging technologies. The question is, how are our roads holding up? Can they take us to the future? Tune in for an insightful conversation with Steve Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado. Follow our economic commentary & insights here:https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.