Markets, Mystics and Mayhem

It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the latest stats on the PMI and PSI activity indicators. And later end up talking about one of, if not the biggest challenges facing the Kiwi economy: an aging population. An aging population certainly isn’t a new problem. We even joke on the podcast about a note Jarrod wrote 10 years ago on the topic and how he could dust it off and change the publishing date to today and it would all still be perfectly relevant. More importantly though, an aging population is certainly not a future issue either. Treasury predicts that in just 5 years’ time, close to a quarter of all tax revenue will go to pensions alone if nothing changes. That’s a huge share of funding and takes away from other areas that badly need funding too. Lifting the retirement age, increasing KiwiSaver contributions, and making them compulsory are all part of the toolkit to tackle the issue. But so is migration. It’s the fountain of youth as Jarrod first wrote ten years ago. So fittingly, we end with a chat about the latest migration figures and where to next from here. PS: You can check out Jarrod’s demographic note from early 2017, which has truly stood the test of time, here: https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/85722/cbas-director-interest-rate-strategy-says-demography-destiny-interest-rates-immigration Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’ve delved into the latest labour market stats. A fitting topic as we farewell MJ on her last episode on the podcast and her time at Kiwibank. We also talk about what we’ve seen in our own hiring processThe headline unemployment rate has lifted from 5.3% to 5.4%. At first glance, the move doesn’t look good. But beneath the bonnet, there’s encouraging signs that the appetite for labour is improving. From the lift in employment to the uptick in the total hours worked.At the same time though, we’ve also seen an influx of people dusting off their CVs and reengaging with the jobs market. The labour force saw the strongest increase in two and a half years. And we’ve seen an uptick in participation. But while more talent is coming forward, labour demand isn’t yet strong enough to fully absorb the influx of new job seekers.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the next US Fed chair has removed much of the fear within markets around diminished Fed independence. Markets are still digesting the news of Trump’s pick for Fed chair. Warsh has a reputation as a monetary hawk. And despite recently supporting lower near-term rates, markets are picking that he may return to his hawkish roots. Especially because of his strong advocacy for shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Tune in as we discuss our thoughts on quantitative tightening, the anti-trump trade, yield curves, and the diversification out of US assets. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

New year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. The lift in headline inflation is a frustration. But it’s the dirty details, from sticky domestic inflation to stubborn underlying inflation that are of most concern. There was overall more broad-based strength than we expected across prices in the December quarter. But the signs aren't there yet to suggest a shift in demand. Importantly, we still expect annual inflation to fall back within the band this year. Although naturally, amongst traders and the like, the discussion is shifting from rate cuts to rate hikes. We agree, the next move is likely to be a hike. But we think it is still a story for 2027. In other news, we're hiring! MJ is becoming part of the statistic and crossing the ditch. It's a big loss. But we're on the lookout for the next MMM co-host. So, if would like to join our tight-knit economics team, please get in touch or check out the link belowhttps://kiwibankpeople.csod.com/ux/ats/careersite/1/home/requisition/2827?c=kiwibankpeople Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mystics have come out to play. We’ve updated our forecasts and the future is bright. We continue to forecast a robust recovery. The settings are about right. Even with a frustrating rise in retail rates. A premature move sparked by a sell off in wholesale rates following the RBNZ’s messaging misstep in November.Beyond Kiwi growth, we also discuss the outlook for housing, inflation, the labour market and migration for next year and beyond. Tune in to see what the future has in store. Additionally check out our full Outlook note here.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-b...Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwibank card data to see just how much Kiwi spent and what they spent it on this Black Friday. And of course, by Black Friday, we really mean the whole month of November with sales kicking off well before the official calendar date This year, it looks like Kiwi favoured hammers over handbags, couches over Converse, and books over Bluetooth speakers. Kiwi are opening up their wallets, but to select stores. For now, all things housing are the winners. The festive shopping season is only just getting started. Secret Santa and stocking stuffers may see more broad-based gains across retail this Christmas. Not to mention, Boxing Day, which still reigns supreme as the biggest spending day of the year for Kiwi. For now, significantly lower interest rates are helping free up disposable incomes and boost consumption. And with 30% of mortgaged households set to roll off onto lower rates in the next six months, the outlook for retail is merry and bright. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. A 2.25% cash rate looks to be the bottom. That’s good news. Policy settings are now more supportive of a recovery in 2026.After 325bps of rate cuts, the RBNZ appear more confident in the economic outlook. Positive data following the RBNZ’S decision, from confidence to consumer spending, supports as much. And against the backdrop of an upbeat hawkish RBNZ, we’ve seen a big move in markets. Wholesale rates, particularly the 2yr swap rate has ratcheted 30bps higher following last week's decision. And we’ve seen the Kiwi pop back to a 57c handle.Tune in as we break down all the details from the vote, tone, and OCR track, plus the market reaction and what it all means for the outlook.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New Zealand...Activity remains mixed across sectors and regions. There’s still pockets of activity in the South Island, especially as farmers benefit from a weaker currency. But there’s a clear preference to pay down debt as the share of non-performing agri loans has fallen steeply. That’s great news, but it’s limited the spillover of activity into other parts of the real economy. More generally, the current weakness in the economy is still keeping credit demand subdued.One standout trend over the past year has been households opting for shorter-dated rates to take advantage of falling interest rates. And with the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting just around the corner, we explore whether we’ve reached the bottom of the rate cycle and how markets are positioning for what’s next.The conversation doesn’t stop there. We also discuss the lingering uncertainties weighing on businesses. A big one being next year’s election. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens of Stats NZ’s Household Living-Costs Price Index, which breaks down inflation across 13 different demographic groups, offering a more detailed view of inflation experiences across Kiwi households. And here’s where it gets interesting, because inflation is hurting some more than others. It's unfair. Households that spend the least are now facing the highest inflation. Followed closely by retirees and beneficiaries. Meanwhile, high-spending and high-income households are seeing much smaller increases in living costs. It’s a reversal of what we saw during the peak of the cost-of-living crisis. And it all comes down to interest rates. Tune in as we unpack the numbers and what it means for Kiwi households. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Tune in for part one of a double-header episode - we're looking at both sides of the Phillips Curve. This week: the unemployment rate. There’s still a significant amount of slack in the Kiwi jobs market. The unemployment rate climbed to a nine-year high of 5.3% in the September quarter, and employment was down 0.6% on the year. Wage growth also continues to moderate, another sign of a soft market. In this episode, we unpack the latest numbers, how it changes the outlook, and what it means for policyHosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron Hobbs. We had the privilege of touring their warehouses. And we got the the inside scoop on how cutting-edge robotics have transformed their Kiwi business.As per the title of the episode, the team at DSL are unlocking efficiency and boosting productivity one robot at a time. Their tabletop sortation robotic solution to packing and processing is one-of-a-kind in New Zealand. And it’s delivering real results, from lower costs to improved reliability. And it’s opening up the door to further automation. In the fast-moving world of e-commerce, the tech positions the DSL team well to respond to growing customer demands.We also dive into how the current economic cycle has impacted DSL. We know first-hand from our own Kiwibank data, that retail has faced acute pressure over the past two tough years. The cost of living has climbed, stretching household budgets. Our conversation with DSL confirms all this. But with further cuts to interest rates and the festive season around the corner, the outlook for retail is optimistic.It doesn’t end there though. We also chat through the impact of tariffs (or lack thereof), regional differences, and even reminisce on the scramble to secure warehousing space during Covid. It’s a jam-packed episode you don’t want to miss! Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Inflation has climbed to the top end of the RBNZ’s target band. But there is no need for panic. A reacceleration in imported inflation as well as sticky administered costs are driving the move higher. But the more interest rate sensitive components of CPI, like rents and construction costs, remain soft. We continue to expect inflation to return towards the RBNZ’s 2% mid-point in early 2026The rising costs across essentials is however biting into wallets and having an impact on consumption. Our latest look at Kiwibank spending data shows that households are being forced to prioritise costlier essential goods and services over durables and discretionary items. The pass through of lower interest rates should in time help free up more disposable incomes to be spent elsewhere. Adding to this jam-packed episode, we also touch on the RBNZ’s recent announcement around relaxing LVR restrictions. That should help spur more activity into the housing market into 2026. And with that, kick the wealth effect into effect. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into the impact of the RBNZ’s circuit-breaking 50bps rate cut. As Elliot puts it, the move feels like the RBNZ is finally hearing the struggles of Kiwi businesses. But while there’s been a sense of relief, caution still lingers. Businesses are starting to feel like it’s time to take action, but hesitancy remains. Amid tough operating and financial conditions, the inaction around expansion decisions have been an ongoing theme. However, with monetary policy finally at stimulatory settings, the environment is becoming more conducive to growth. Heading into the new year, conditions are ripening for momentum to build. We also discuss the performance of the business bank and the current lending landscape. It’s more competitive than when Elliot last joined us, but Kiwibank continues to play an outsized role. Plus, Elliot sheds light on Kiwibank’s startup+ pilot programme with Ministry of Awesome, designed to support innovative businesses that are harder to collateralize. It’s all about opening doors, backing good ideas, and building strong businesses that aren’t tied to the property cycle.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest FX Tactical. After some time of tariff headlines driving currencies, interest rate differentials are now back at wheel driving currency movements. And with the RBNZ clearly needing to do more relative to other central banks, the Kiwi dollar has come under significant downwards pressure. So, we’re diving into the performance and outlook for the Kiwi dollar against the Greenback, Aussie dollar, Sterling, Euro and Yen. And as always, we couldn’t resist throwing Wilkie a curveball currency pair. This time, it felt only fitting to ask about the Krona (Sweden’s currency) given the appointment of Dr Anna Breman as the incoming RBNZ Governor. We also take some time to compare the Swedish and New Zealand economy.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? because it has become crystal clear that the Kiwi economy is not recovering. So, in the wise words of Nike, “Just do it” A year on from the deep and destructive recession we were in in 2024, the Kiwi economy has slammed back into reverse. The GDP numbers for the June quarter were far worse than anyone had expected and proved once again that the RBNZ has not yet delivered the appropriate monetary policy setting. Weakness remains broad based with 10 out of the 16 industries in decline. And over the year the economy has shrunk a further 0.6%. It’s simply not what you’d expect a year after the severe recession. We should be recovering by now. But we're not. And the weakness demands more rate relief.Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re delving into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. As well as unpacking the economic drivers in wildlife black markets. Brendan talks us through real-world examples involving rhinos and crocodiles to show how market-based approaches can support sustainable protection. We also explore how the fall in interest rates and a crashing equity market during the 2008 GFC led to a surge in unscrupulous investment in elephant ivory—driving up poaching levels. Across all three cases, one economic principle stands out: incentives matter. If you missed part one, be sure to check out last week’s episode, “The economics of climate change”, where we explored how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID, the global and national challenges we face, and the policy solutions available to New Zealand today. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to delve deep into the complexities of climate change. Brendan brings a wealth of expertise, and we’re tapping into his insights on how the climate landscape has evolved post-COVID. Unfortunately, recent developments, particularly those stemming from the US and the Trump administration are poised to exacerbate the crisis, painting an increasingly grim pictureWith electricity generation being a major contributor to global emissions, we spend a significant portion of the episode discussing energy. New Zealand is already ahead of the curve when it comes to renewable energy thanks to our abundance of hydro, wind, and geothermal resources. However, Brendan highlights that even with our strong renewables’ foundation, maintaining and expanding this advantage comes with its own set of challenges. We also touch on the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in New Zealand. Discussions around insurance retreat and the reclassification of flood-prone zones are becoming more pressing. And the ripple effects of what this will mean for some houses and mortgages remains front of mind. Impacts like these underscore a key theme of this week’s episode that action is needed. Both in mitigation and adaptation. Brendan shares his insights on some of the most effective strategies and solutions that can be implemented to improve economic and environmental outcomes.This is the first of a two-part episode. Next week, we’ll delve into Brendan’s fascinating research in wildlife economics, exploring how economics can be applied to the conservation of endangered species. So, if you’re curious about crocodiles, elephants, rhinos, and the economics behind protecting them, be sure to tune in next week!Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Adrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, we were heading into the US election, central banks were at the start of the easing cycle, and the Kiwi dollar was climbing towards 64c. Today, tariffs dominate the headlines and uncertainty remains elevated.In all that, the Kiwi dollar has lost flight. But it’s a double-edged sword. A lower Kiwi is good news for exporters, not so much for importers. Adrian shares all the anecdotes he's hearing from his clients across the importer and exporter space, and how they're positioning themselves ahead of the coming summer months and into 2026Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they did so with plenty of conviction. The OCR track was massively lowered, now signalling an 80% chance of a move to 2.5%. This is great news for Kiwi households and businesses. Interest rates are moving from providing relief to generating stimulus. Just what the economy needs. So, join us while we unpack the RBNZ’s latest bold & brilliant move. And of course, how financial markets have reacted. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the times. Our economy’s certainly feeling a bit rough around the edges, especially when stacked up against our mates across the ditch. It’s no surprise we’re seeing a majority of Kiwi flock over to Australia. So, in this episode we thought to stack up the two economies side by side. The beautiful, lush Aotearoa vs the brownish vegemite Australia. We’re comparing activity, labour markets, inflation, and of course, central banks. Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Mary Jo Vergara and Sabrina Delgado.Follow our economic commentary & insights here: https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/commentary-insights/Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.