The Iran Breakdown with Mark Dubowitz

Trump has been dealt a major political blow in the midterms. Is Tehran preparing to take advantage?FDD’s Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Taleblu examine how Iran’s rulers are interpreting the election results, whether the Islamic Republic sees an opportunity to challenge a weakened American president, and what Trump’s Iran strategy could look like over the next two years.They also explore the regime’s mounting vulnerabilities after three years of regional conflict, the perspectives of Iranians who oppose the Islamic Republic, and the fundamental question facing Washington and Tehran alike: Who has the upper hand—and who is running out of time?

Four American presidents. One persistent enemy. And a confrontation that has brought the Middle East to war.Brett McGurk has spent more than two decades at the center of American Middle East policy, serving Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Now, in his new book, Brink, he takes readers inside some of the most consequential national security decisions of our time.In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, McGurk draws on his extraordinary firsthand experience to examine America’s long struggle with the Islamic Republic — from failed nuclear diplomacy and Iran’s network of terrorist proxies to October 7, failed negotiations with Tehran, President Biden’s defense of Israel against Iranian missile and drone attacks, and President Trump’s military confrontation to cripple Iranian nuclear and war-making capabilities.What did the Biden administration get right and wrong? Has Trump’s use of military force fundamentally changed the equation? Can Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions be stopped? Is America winning? What are the differences between American and Israeli approaches to confronting the Iran threat? Did the Iran campaign help or hurt our efforts to deter China in a Taiwan crisis scenario. And after four presidencies, what has Washington still failed to understand about the regime in Tehran and the importance of American presence in the Middle East?An insider’s account of American power, presidential decision-making, and the future of the threat from the Islamic Republic.

Japan occupies a unique position: a close ally of the United States, a strong partner of Israel, and a longtime diplomatic interlocutor with Tehran.In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Japan’s Ambassador to Israel, Yusuke Arai, offers a rare perspective on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the threats it poses to Israel, lessons from Japan’s experience with North Korea, and the limits of diplomacy and the importance of military deterrence.Ambassador Arai is a veteran diplomat with over 30 years of experience in foreign policy, national security, and intelligence. A former Director-General of Intelligence and Analysis at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he brings a distinctive security perspective shaped by his experience examining Iran and the Middle East from both Tokyo and Israel.

To understand the war unfolding with Iran today — and where it could lead — you have to understand the history that brought the Middle East to this moment.In this episode of The Iran Breakdown, Mark Dubowitz sits down with acclaimed historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East, to put today’s conflict with Iran in its deeper historical context.When did this war really begin — with October 7, the direct 2025 US-Israel-Iran confrontation, or the Islamic Revolution of 1979? Montefiore traces the forces that shaped the modern Middle East and examines how Khomeini’s revolution transformed Iran, political Islam, and the regional order.The conversation explores what the current war is actually about, how victory should be measured, and whether external pressure can break the Islamic Republic. Mark and Simon also look beyond the current regime: If the Islamic Republic eventually disappears, which parts of Iran’s regional ambitions disappear with it — and which are rooted more deeply in Iranian history, geography, and nationalism?Are we witnessing another violent turn in the Middle East — or the end of the revolutionary cycle that began with Khomeini in 1979? And if that era really is ending, what comes next?

Elliot Kaufman and Yonah Jeremy Bob are the co-authors of the new book, In the War Room: The Inside Story of Israel’s Fight Against Hamas and the Iranian Axis – an inside account of the decisions, debates, and personalities that shaped Israel’s multi-front war, from October 7 to Hezbollah and ultimately Iran.Elliot Kaufman is an editorial writer and member of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, where he focuses on Israel and Iran and has covered the war since October 7.Yonah Jeremy Bob is the senior military analyst at The Jerusalem Post and the author of several books, including Target Tehran.Their reporting draws on extensive access to senior military, intelligence, and political officials.