FiveStack with Dean Blundell & Zev Shalev

Democrats took the Senate on Tuesday night. Decision Desk HQ called six Republican seats for them between 9:56 p.m. and 1 a.m. Eastern; they needed four. Here is the round-up as the count stood at 2:40 a.m. Wednesday, race by race, with the caller and the time on every call.The SenateThe first wave hit South Carolina at 9:56. Decision Desk called the race for Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, over Senator Darline Graham, 51 to 47 at 82 percent in. Graham had been appointed to her late brother Lindsey’s seat and carried Trump’s endorsement into a state he won by 18 points. Andrews finished 51.2 to 46.8.James Talarico beat Ken Paxton in Texas at 10:16, 55 to 43 at the call, 54 to 44 at the last count. Texas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1988.Hamilton beat Roger Marshall in Kansas at 10:50, 51 to 46 at the final count. Republicans had held that seat since 1932.Sherrod Brown beat Jon Husted in Ohio at 11:16, 49.6 to 45.6 with 84 percent in, and took back the seat he lost two years ago.Turek beat Ashley Hinson in Iowa at 11:19, 50.5 to 46.4 with every precinct in.After midnight Decision Desk called Maine for Jackson over Susan Collins, 53 to 45 on the early count, and Michigan for El-Sayed over Mike Rogers, 52 to 46. Michigan was a Democratic seat; Maine was the sixth flip.The wave stopped at the Nebraska line. Pete Ricketts held off the independent Dan Osborn, 49.5 to 44.6, called with 65 percent in. In Alaska, Dan Sullivan led Mary Peltola 48.8 to 47.5 with 69 percent counted, uncalled, after Peltola had led the first batch.The arithmetic: 34 Democratic-aligned senators were not on the ballot. Add the seats they defended and the six they took, and the caucus stands at 53 with Alaska open. Fifty-one controls the chamber.The HouseSeven Republican-held seats on Narativ’s watch list went Democratic, and none went the other way. Dandiya took Florida’s 22nd at 8:07, the first toss-up called all night. Ager took North Carolina’s 11th at 8:30. Cognetti beat Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th at 9:02. Pulido beat Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’s 15th at 11:00. Poindexter beat Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th at 11:17. James took Iowa’s 2nd at 11:35. Harvie beat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania’s 1st after midnight. Garcia held Texas’s 35th for the Democrats.Two watch-list seats stayed open at 2:40: Maine’s 2nd, where Dunlap led Paul LePage by half a point before the ranked-choice count, and New York’s 17th, where Conley led Rep. Mike Lawler 52 to 48 on the first numbers. Decision Desk had not put a number on the full House. Two hundred eighteen is the majority, and the count runs into Wednesday.The governorsDemocrats took six. Keisha Lance Bottoms won Georgia at 9:15. Rob Sand won Iowa at 9:58. Katie Hobbs beat Andy Biggs in Arizona at 10:13. David Crowley beat Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin at 10:21. Amy Acton beat Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio at 10:31, the first Democrat to win the office since 2006. Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott in Texas at midnight, and Abbott conceded.Republicans held three. Byron Donalds won Florida by half a point, 50.0 to 48.7 at the full count. Wilson held South Carolina. Kelly Ayotte held New Hampshire. Kansas sat at half a point for Holscher with every precinct in, uncalled; Alaska’s Kreiss-Tomkins led by 20 with the count unfinished; Nevada had not posted.The money linePolymarket priced the Senate at 76 cents Democratic at 5 p.m. and 99 cents by midnight; the House went from 94 to 99. Those are prices, not calls, and Narativ read them on air as prices.What we said, against what the count saysOn air Narativ said 255 House seats and 55 senators. The Senate stands at 53 with Alaska leaning Republican, so 55 is out of reach and 53 or 54 is the range. The House forecasters had 239 to 242 going in; the market at midnight priced Republicans below 190 seats at 99 cents, which means 246 or more for Democrats. The count decides it.Trump’s night, in his own wordsHe changed his account four times before 1 a.m. On Truth Social, before the West Coast closed: he was not on the ballot, and if he had been, Republicans “would have won in a landslide.” As the calls landed: the candidates were at fault, one was a “RINO,” and Fox News shared the blame for putting Democrats on air. To The New York Times: “I am absolutely willing to accept those results.” On Fox, after midnight: “I think a part of it was Iran.” His last post of the night: “...AND SO IT BEGINS!”What Narativ didNobody on the broadcast called a race. Decision Desk and the networks called them; Zev Shalev and Anne P. Mitchell covered that coverage from 8 p.m., with Lev Parnas, Ellie Leonard, Kait Justice and Olga Lautman in and out, the results board live in the studio and the network feeds cut in by key. That is the replay above. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.narativ.org/subscribe

!Five days before the American midterms, the Justice Department is already seeking conditions that could delay certification of a Democratic Senate victory in Alaska. Trump is demanding the prosecution of the candidate who could win it. The vote is still ahead. The effort to challenge its consequences is underway.That is the thread through today’s FiveStack: who gets to exercise power, who gets to challenge it, and what happens when institutions or voters refuse to deliver the answer a leader wants.The countdown runs from a Pentagon firing to a Russian fuel shipment, from Bolsonaro’s arrival in Miami to Israel’s coalition arithmetic—and back to the American election.5️⃣ Hegseth removes a senior planner as another Iran decision approachesPete Hegseth fired Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, who led strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Staff. The removal comes as Trump weighs renewed military action against Iran. Pentagon officials subsequently accused Sylvia of leaking classified information and referred the matter to the Justice Department. Those are allegations, not established findings. Sylvia’s office helps advise the chairman of the Joint Chiefs on strategy. Removing its leader at a moment of military uncertainty raises an immediate question about the quality and independence of the advice reaching the top. A government preparing another military decision needs officers able to explain the costs, the risks and the limits.The firing is confirmed. The claim that Sylvia was removed specifically for opposing an Iran operation requires further evidence. The accountability question remains: who will test the next plan before American service members are ordered to carry it out?4️⃣ Russian diesel meets resistance in New JerseyGovernor Mikie Sherrill is considering ways to stop a Russian diesel shipment from reaching the Port of New York and New Jersey. She called the Trump-Putin arrangement “corrupt and illegal.” The Financial Times reported the threatened intervention Thursday; separate reporting described American companies resisting the fuel arrangement. That puts a governor and commercial buyers in the path of a presidential deal. Sherrill is weighing action; a completed blockade has not been established. The next test is practical: whether opposition to the shipment becomes an obstacle at the port.Our concern is the political bargain behind the cargo. Treating Russian fuel as ordinary business while Moscow continues its war forces a question about what Washington is prepared to normalize—and what leverage it is prepared to surrender.3️⃣ Bolsonaro loses in Brazil, then reaches Miami with help from Trump’s circleAfter losing Brazil’s presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio Bolsonaro arrived in Miami Wednesday. Reporting published Thursday described an escape operation involving decoys, a private aircraft and assistance from Trump’s inner circle. The Wall Street Journal account traced the journey through Argentina; EFE reported the New York Times’ findings on assistance from Trump and his aides. Brazil also ordered an investigation into alleged Rockbridge campaign links. The Vance-cofounded network denies involvement.These are separate developments: assistance leaving the country, and scrutiny of possible campaign assistance before the vote. Together they put Washington’s relationship with Bolsonaro at the center of the next dispute with Brasília. Losing an election ended his presidential bid. It did not end the international effort surrounding him.2️⃣ Netanyahu has 53 seats. A majority requires 61.With nearly all votes counted, Israeli media projected 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc and 19 for Arab-led parties. Neither main bloc has a majority. Netanyahu’s party has meanwhile amplified unproven claims that Arab-led parties stole the election. The arithmetic gives Eisenkot a possible route: 48 plus 19 makes 67. Turning those seats into parliamentary support requires agreement among parties with substantial differences. Our reading on FiveStack is that this offers a credible path to replacing Netanyahu. Coalition negotiations will determine whether that path holds.Arab-led parties emerge with substantial leverage over the next government. Their voters’ representation is central to the outcome, however aggressively Netanyahu attacks its legitimacy. The next contest is over who can assemble support—and whether the election’s verdict will be respected in that process.1️⃣ Alaska becomes a test of what happens after the voteThe Justice Department escalated its investigation Thursday into the controversy over two candidates named Dan Sullivan appearing on Alaska’s Senate ballot. Trump has called for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola to be prosecuted and removed from the race. Alaska’s Supreme Court had already allowed the second Sullivan to remain on the ballot. The federal lawsuit seeks to delay certification of a possible Peltola victory while claims of voter confusion are examined. That puts a campaign dispute inside the process for recognizing the winner.Elsewhere, Fox moved South Carolina to a toss-up Thursday, citing polling that put Darline Graham and Annie Andrews level at 48%. Republicans face a competitive map. Democrats still have to win the votes. Alaska shows why the work will also include defending the process that recognizes the winner.THE PATTERNThese stories show power encountering resistance: professional scrutiny inside government, a governor challenging a fuel deal, voters rejecting a presidential candidate, coalition partners withholding a majority, and a Senate race becoming a fight over certification.The next step is different in each case. Investigators must establish evidence. Sherrill must decide what action to take. Israeli parties must negotiate. American voters still have five days to determine the composition of Congress.Hope has a practical requirement: participation. Cast the vote, follow the count, and keep watching what happens between the result and the exercise of power.Support independent reporting at If this reporting matters to you, share it.Thank you Uncomfortable Truth by Monica, Dani Smart, Cat: Poli-Psych, LC - Silence is Complicity, Caro Henry, and many others for tuning into my live video with Dean Blundell! Join me for my next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.narativ.org/subscribe

5️⃣ Melania's ceasefire covers one townThe White House says the first lady got Russia and Ukraine to stop shooting at Oleshky, a town of about 2,000 in occupied Kherson, for 30 hours so far and six days of food and evacuation. Dean's account is that Pope Leo opened the channel to Putin three months ago and secured the truce from a hospital bed, and that the Vatican's thanks never named Melania Trump. The 21,640 Ukrainian children Russia has taken are still in Russia.4️⃣ Flávio Bolsonaro lands in Miami, and Brazil's court names RockbridgeFlávio Bolsonaro crossed into Argentina at 10:50 Tuesday night, 11 hours past the Supreme Court's passport deadline, and stepped off a Gulfstream in Miami on Wednesday morning on visas Trump approved. He lost Sunday's runoff by 4.4 million votes and faces two money-laundering cases at home. The same day, Justice Flávio Dino ordered the Federal Police to investigate whether a foreign donor network paid for his campaign and whether Meta and Twitter were tilted for him. The network is Rockbridge, founded in 2019 by JD Vance and Chris Buskirk, backed by Peter Thiel and Rebekah Mercer, with a Rockbridge Brazil LLC registered in Wyoming, where owners stay secret. Dean's reading: Brazil cannot touch a sitting vice president, and American law can.3️⃣ A grand jury says no to Todd BlancheA D.C. grand jury refused to indict Cassidy Hutchinson, the Jan. 6 witness, for telling the truth about that day. It follows a third case against James Comey, built on a 2016 leak, after the first two were thrown out. Dean's word for it is the revenge tour: file every charge you can before the midterms, through prosecutors a judge ruled this week are serving unlawfully.2️⃣ Patriots move, and the Gulf is told to braceThe Pentagon is moving a Patriot battery to the Middle East and the Gulf has been told to brace for "a short yet intensive military offensive" after Nov. 3. Trump, in Texas: "You'll see Iran in a couple of weeks." The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, with tankers waiting in it, under a president who says he owns it. Eisenkot told the army not to follow a caretaker prime minister into a war for his own survival.1️⃣ Eight seats short, Likud calls the vote stolenAt 10 p.m. the exit polls had Gadi Eisenkot's bloc ahead. By 2 a.m. Netanyahu was on the Likud stage saying the revised numbers made him the largest party and entitled him to govern. Today Likud posted that the election "was stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism" and demanded the police and the Shin Bet investigate. Arab citizens of Israel, 1.3 million of them, voted in record numbers. Lev Parnas told Narativ on election night that the White House was unhappy with the first polls and would try to make changes; what changed between 10 and 2, no one has said. Eisenkot has a path to a minority government with Arab support, and that is what the people voted for.Bonus: Dean's readTrump is quietly surrendering to Canada on tariffs. Lubbock was a mental health episode. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra told Canadian businessmen that Canada takes the blame if Trump loses. All at deanblundell.substack.com; prices rise Oct. 31. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.narativ.org/subscribe

Today’s FiveStack is brought to you by GroundNews — FiveStack viewers get 40% off their Vantage plan.ISRAEL VOTESIsrael's exit polls landed at 10 p.m.: Channel 12 projects 52 seats for the bloc against Netanyahu and 50 for his coalition, Channel 13 gives the opposition 53, and both have the Arab parties at 17 or 18. The i24NEWS poll differs: Likud 27, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar 20, Netanyahu's bloc 55, the opposition 49, the Arab parties 16. A majority is 61. Likud is the largest party in every poll. Eisenkot said the polls show "a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu" and pledged to work to replace his government "as soon as possible." Eisenkot appears to have a path to a government, and Netanyahu has room to negotiate. The count runs into the week; the exit polls are projections, not results.5️⃣ Trump brings Paxton a tanker of Venezuelan oilDonald Trump flew to Texas to rally for Ken Paxton, with a tanker of Venezuelan crude docked at Port Arthur as the prop. On the tarmac he said Venezuela "sent me as a gift a boatload of a million barrels of oil" and that he is "giving that to the United States." At the rally he called James Talarico a "Democrat Communist" and Paxton "the greatest in the history of Texas attorney general." Dean's word for how Trump got the oil: piracy.4️⃣ Don Jr. hunted in Mongolia with Umar KremlevThe Financial Times reported that Donald Trump Jr. spent two days in August hunting in Mongolia with Umar Kremlev, the Russian boxing chief who paid for part of his wedding. Narativ reported in September that bikers introduced Kremlev to the chief of Putin's bodyguard, and Trump said his son paid the money back. That week Vladimir Putin told a gas conference in Moscow that Russia is exploring Arctic cooperation "with partners from the United States."3️⃣ Trump will accept the midterms "if they're honest elections"Trump told reporters he will accept the results "if they're honest elections." Who declares them honest, he did not say. An appeals court refused his Justice Department's demand to set aside 20,000 California mail ballots, and Democratic leaders of both chambers asked Judge James Boasberg for a restraining order to stop the federal government removing voters from state rolls, blocking ballots and interfering with the count. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro missed his deadline to hand police his passports, and Trump said Lula's win "looked like another rigged election." One script, from Bolsonaro to Trump to Netanyahu.2️⃣ Comey charged a third time, Maurene Comey ordered backThe Justice Department unsealed a third case against James Comey: a criminal information, filed under seal on Oct. 5 in Washington, charging him with transmitting national defense information and conspiring to transmit it. His lawyer, Patrick Fitzgerald, says the article dates to 2016 and that two prosecution teams in the first Trump administration decided no one should be charged. Trump, on the tarmac: "I think he's a dirty cop." One earlier indictment was thrown out in November with its prosecutor; a second case, in North Carolina, is pending. A judge ruled Monday the department fired Maurene Comey, the Epstein prosecutor, illegally and ordered her back with back pay.1️⃣ Israel votes in record numbers, and Netanyahu calls it an emergencyIsrael voted in the highest turnout the country has recorded: 55.7 percent by 4 p.m., against 47.5 percent at the same hour in 2022. Likud and Shas asked the election committee for more voting hours. Netanyahu called the Arab turnout an "emergency," and Bezalel Smotrich cut short his tour of polling stations for an emergency meeting on it. Haaretz reported Monday that Likud planned to film Arab voters near polling stations to prepare a rigged-election claim. Citizens voting is not an emergency.Today’s FiveStack is brought to you by GroundNews — FiveStack viewers get 40% off their Vantage plan. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.narativ.org/subscribe

5️⃣ Lula Beats Trump's Man, and the Loser Cries RiggedLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday night, beating Flávio Bolsonaro by 4.4 million votes, 51.8 percent to 48.2. Bolsonaro, whose father is serving 27 years for trying to overturn the last election, refused to concede and asked the courts to annul the result. Lula told the crowd, "This country will not accept being anyone's backyard." He had told the United Nations to stay out of his election, and the second round came out where the polls said it would. The same night Serbia's students swept Aleksandar Vučić from power.4️⃣ Trump Refused Netanyahu's Pre-Election Strike on IranCNN reported Monday, citing two American officials and an Israeli security source, that Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump for a joint strike on Iran before the election and Trump refused. Avigdor Lieberman asked for a treason investigation into the prime minister for trying to use a war to hold power.3️⃣ Rogers Ducks Welker, Obama Answers for El-SayedThe Republican running for Senate in Michigan went on Meet the Press on Sunday and would not say whether he is MAGA, or whether he would vote to repeal Trump's tariffs on Canada. He called the question "a little bit disgusting." Welker played him his own earlier words on talking to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the group his campaign now pins on Abdul El-Sayed. Barack Obama answered the attacks on El-Sayed's faith at a Detroit rally: "We have seen this movie before. I starred in it."2️⃣ Anthropic Files to Go Public With an $80 Billion LossThe company behind Claude filed Monday to sell shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Revenue in the first half of the year was $16.3 billion, up 1,300 percent; the net loss was $80 billion, most of it an accounting charge. Disclosure: Narativ's desk runs on Anthropic's models.1️⃣ Raskin Names Trump and Zampolli as Possible Co-ConspiratorsJamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, released a 50-page staff report on Trump and Jeffrey Epstein. It describes evidence involving 11 women, five of whom accuse Trump of rape or sexual assault in Epstein's company. The report says Trump and Paolo Zampolli, the model agent who was a Trump envoy until last week, "may have been co-conspirators" in Epstein's trafficking. It says a longtime Epstein assistant told the FBI that Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. Trump removed Zampolli three days before the report came out. Disclosure: at the committees' request, Narativ provided its Zampolli/Trump/Epstein reporting to investigators. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.narativ.org/subscribe