The Hurdle Rate Podcast

This week on The Hurdle Rate: Adam Livingston joins Strive as VP of Investments, Strategy buys back $139 million of STRC with stretch back near 99, and Strive adds 469 Bitcoin at an average cost of $77,954 while hitting an all-time high market cap of $2.75 billion. Jeff makes the case that trust is the real infrastructure of capital markets, and why Bitcoin makes that trust legible. We get into the Clarity Act, AI doomerism, and why the crew thinks the frontier labs are using fear to build a moat ahead of their IPOs. Matt takes macro with the 10-year touching 5%, what a short-term Bitcoin flush would actually look like, and why it would be the dream setup. We close with a capital markets recap and Strive's one-year anniversary. Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, Adam Livingston, and Tim Kotzman. Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/ Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:17 - Adam Livingston Joins Strive 08:52 - Trust as Capital Markets Infrastructure 19:48 - The Amplified Bitcoin Story and SATA 22:44 - Building Through the Bear Market 24:54 - An Outsider's View of Strive 28:35 - The Clarity Act and Regulatory Trust 36:23 - AI Doomerism and the Messy Middle 45:03 - Don't Let the Ladder Get Pulled Up 51:28 - Macro: The 10-Year Touches 5% 55:27 - What a Bitcoin Flush Would Look Like 1:01:46 - Capital Markets Recap True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).* Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew discusses SATA hitting $999 million outstanding, Strategy doubling its STRC repurchase facility to $2 billion, and Strive adding another 1,000+ Bitcoin. Ben breaks down the art and science of running the desk and why amplification stays on. Matt makes the case that we've never seen a bull market with a perpetual preferred model in place. We also get into executive comp and shareholder alignment, and close on macro: what happens if the 10-year breaks 7%. Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:20 - SATA Nears $1 Billion 07:10 - Strive's Flywheel and Amplification 09:34 - Strategy's Push to Get STRC Back to 100 12:12 - The Art and Science of Capital Markets 15:33 - The First Bull Market With Perpetual Preferreds 17:44 - ASST Volume Up 9.7x in Three Weeks 20:00 - Competition and the Digital Gold Rush 26:55 - What Saylor Is Really Like 30:01 - Executive Comp and Shareholder Alignment 48:21 - Macro: What If the 10-Year Hits 7%? 59:22 - Private Credit Risk in Insurance True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).* Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew unpacks a market that has come roaring back to life, from Strategy returning as a Bitcoin buyer at 0% net leverage to Strive growing its stack 14.4% in two weeks to 23,156 Bitcoin. Jeff brings back lessons from Bitcoin Asia, where investors are building structured finance on top of Bitcoin and digital credit faster than the US, and we dig into why STRC hasn't snapped back to par, how amplification and liquidity have to be earned rather than dialed in, and why Strategy's balance sheet may be the most misunderstood credit story in the market. We then take on MSCI's proposed exclusion of digital asset treasury companies and why it would effectively make index providers investment advisers, before closing on macro: fiscal dominance, why long-end yields go higher whether the Fed hikes or cuts, and why this is a backdrop Bitcoin has never seen. Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman. Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:29 - Lessons from Bitcoin Asia 15:37 - Strive Grows to 23,156 Bitcoin 17:44 - Strategy Returns as a Buyer 19:22 - Why STRC Hasn't Hit Par 23:28 - Strategy's Zero Net Leverage 33:41 - The MSCI Fight 47:07 - Macro: Jackson Hole and Yields 53:29 - A Backdrop Bitcoin Has Never Seen 59:44 - The Natural Rate on Long Bonds True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [www.sec.gov](http://www.sec.gov).* Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.

In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew reacts to Strategy’s latest investor Q&A and breaks down why the company is prioritizing STRC, building cash reserves, and treating Bitcoin as flexible capital. We dig into why Bitcoin has held firm despite Strategy selling, the Coldcard self-custody exploit, and broader market stress, and what that resilience could signal about the bear market. The conversation then turns to NVIDIA’s massive structured-finance deal, how the company is lending its balance sheet and creditworthiness to accelerate OpenAI’s infrastructure buildout, and what it reveals about the growing convergence of AI, credit, and capital markets. We close with OranjeBTC’s DIGY11 ETF and the expansion of Bitcoin-backed digital credit into Brazil.   Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Joe Burnett, and Ben Werkman.   0:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 2:26 - Strategy Q&A: Bitcoin and Digital Credit 11:27 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies Face a Stress Test 13:15 - Is Michael Saylor Buying High and Selling Low? 17:00 -  MSCI and Bitcoin Treasury Companies 20:08 - Understanding Amplified Bitcoin Volatility 30:45 - The Macro Backdrop and Bitcoin’s Next Move 35:44 - NVIDIA’s Massive OpenAI Financing Deal 53:11 - OranjeBTC’s DIGY11 ETF Follow us on X: https://x.com/HurdleRatePod All episodes now live: https://tnorth.com/shows/hurdle-rate/   True North does not intend for anything herein to be considered an offer or sale of any securities, including those of Strive. True North encourages listeners to consult with their tax and investment advisors. Additional information on any securities or issuers referenced herein can be found in such issuers’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including any registration statements, prospectuses and prospectus supplements for each issuers’ securities. Listeners should read such documents and other documents incorporated by reference therein or that such issuer has filed with the SEC for more complete information. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at [http://www.sec.gov).*   Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.