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What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out.
Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.
Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org
Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.
Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org
59 Episodes
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Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed. Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 66% (55% to 75%) and 79% (65% to 90%), respectively. Conditional on this happening by the end of June, will there have been 30 consecutive days without any US strikes on Iran on November 3, 2026 (the date of the midterms)? Forecasters estimate a 78% (60% to 90%) chance. Conditional on a strike by the end of June, will cyberattacks that the team believe were credibly attributed to Iran occur by the end of June and cumulatively lead to more than 10 estimated deaths? Forecasters give a 6.5% (2.0% to 15%) chance. Will the US remove (either partially or completely) sanctions against Cuba by the end of 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 48% (31% to 67%) probability. Will any oil [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:58) Geopolitics(03:01) Middle East(07:19) Europe(08:13) Asia(08:30) Africa(08:46) Latin America(09:55) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:59) Capabilities(12:13) Governance(17:17) Economy ---
First published:
February 23rd, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-buildup-in-middle-east-continues
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance. Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability. Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B. Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof. Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:14) Geopolitics(02:17) Middle East(04:39) Europe(06:58) Asia(07:10) United States(09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:07) Economy(13:22) Biorisk(14:15) Nature and climate(14:43) Miscellaneous ---
First published:
February 16th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof. What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%). What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite. Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence(05:46) Geopolitics(05:49) Middle East(06:27) Europe(07:30) Asia(08:12) Biorisk(09:11) Economy(09:48) Nature and Climate ---
First published:
February 9th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%). Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance. Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form. What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance. Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India. Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...] ---Outline:(00:19) Executive summary(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:22) Geopolitics(09:24) Middle East(11:18) Europe(13:18) The Americas(13:21) Latin America(16:06) North America(20:22) Asia(21:22) Africa(21:43) Biorisk(23:07) Economy(25:08) Nature and climate ---
First published:
February 2nd, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis. Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability. Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance. Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance. Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:50) Geopolitics(02:53) Europe(05:38) Middle East(08:33) The Americas(08:36) Latin America(09:09) North America(14:51) Asia(16:26) Africa(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(20:12) Economy(22:15) Biorisk(22:43) Nature and climate ---
First published:
January 26th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention. Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026. They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:11) Geopolitics(03:14) Europe(07:44) Middle East(11:58) The Americas(12:01) Latin America(13:25) United States(15:00) Asia(15:20) Africa(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence(19:11) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. ---
First published:
January 19th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high. They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term. They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:56) Geopolitics(03:59) Middle East(06:07) Europe(09:42) The Americas(09:45) Latin America(13:33) United States(16:24) Asia(16:56) Africa(17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence ---
First published:
January 12th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran. Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media. Forecasts: Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power. Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025. They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026. They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:33) Geopolitics(02:36) Latin America(09:35) Europe(11:29) Middle East(13:37) Asia(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence ---
First published:
January 5th, 2026
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land. Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US. 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026. 83% (75% to 90%) [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(02:03) Geopolitics(02:06) Europe(03:41) Asia(05:39) Middle East(06:40) The Americas(06:43) Latin America(09:01) United States(09:11) Africa(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:56) Biorisk ---
First published:
December 29th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia. Tech and AI: METR found that Claude Opus 4.5 has the highest measured time horizon on their suite of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, at around 4 hours and 49 minutes. A former DeepMind Director of Engineering thought, very likely incorrectly, that he had solved a Millennium Prize problem with AI assistance, potentially in an example of AI psychosis/AI-catalyzed hubris. Forecasts This week, we forecasted on a few of the things we think may or may not happen in 2026. We’ll have more for you next week. Forecasters think there's a 5.7% (3% to 15%) chance that the US unemployment rate will rise above 10% at any point in 2026. They think there's a 44% (39% to 50%) probability that a major AI lab will hold an IPO. They believe [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:39) Geopolitics(02:42) Europe(03:46) The Americas(03:48) Latin America(06:52) United States(07:35) More Epstein files were released by the Department of Justice following the success of a discharge petition in Congress, but they were criticised for being heavily redacted. They feature photographs and other materials related to Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Bill Clinton and others.(09:24) Middle East(10:26) Asia(10:52) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:03) Biorisk ---
First published:
December 22nd, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-unemployment-and-ipos-in-2026
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027. Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months. They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance. They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026. Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2. And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:52) Geopolitics(02:55) Europe(06:06) Asia(06:38) The Americas(12:22) United States(13:28) Middle East(13:42) Africa(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence(17:49) Economy(18:12) Climate and Nature ---
First published:
December 15th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027. Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement. Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick. Forecasts: Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%). Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026. [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:30) Geopolitics(02:33) Europe(05:08) Asia(07:06) Middle East(07:27) The Americas(08:46) United States(10:22) Africa(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:41) Economy(14:31) Biorisk(14:42) Climate and Nature ---
First published:
December 8th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue. Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad. Forecasts: Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026. They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025. And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026. Geopolitics Europe Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:40) Geopolitics(01:43) Europe(02:37) The Americas(02:40) Latin America(04:03) United States(05:42) Middle East(07:09) Asia(08:15) Africa(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:54) Biorisk(11:01) Climate and Nature ---
First published:
December 1st, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue. Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026. They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026. Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:45) Geopolitics(02:48) Europe(05:35) The Americas(05:37) Latin America(08:39) United States(09:26) Middle East(10:37) Asia(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:26) Economy(15:29) Biorisks ---
First published:
November 24th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign. Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets. Forecasts: Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026. They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026. They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(01:51) Geopolitics(01:54) Asia(04:44) Middle East(06:50) The Americas(06:53) Latin America(09:23) United States(10:26) Africa(10:37) Europe(11:04) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:28) Economy(14:20) Biorisks(14:50) Climate ---
First published:
November 17th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher. Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks. Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs. Forecasts: Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026. They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January. And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:45) Geopolitics(01:47) Middle East(06:02) Africa(06:54) The Americas(06:57) South America(08:24) United States(09:18) Europe(09:39) Asia(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:39) Economy ---
First published:
November 10th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware. Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls. Forecasts: Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week. They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:22) Geopolitics(02:25) The Americas(02:28) South America(04:40) United States(06:08) Middle East(09:04) Africa(10:37) Europe(11:07) Asia(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:48) Economy(15:19) Biorisk ---
First published:
November 3rd, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies. Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry. Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan. Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022. Forecasts: Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:06) Geopolitics(02:09) The Americas(02:12) South America(06:20) United States(09:00) Asia(10:02) Middle East(11:53) Africa(12:25) Europe(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(16:34) Economy(17:06) Biorisk ---
First published:
October 27th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US. Economy: Trump said that imposing an additional 100% tariff on China would not be workable. Two regional banks in the US disclosed issues with bad loans. Tech and AI: The UK's internal security agency, MI5, warned of scenarios in which humans might lose oversight and control of AI. Biorisk: We may be [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:34) Geopolitics(02:37) Middle East(05:09) Europe(07:03) The Americas(07:06) South America(09:42) United States(12:43) Asia(14:34) Africa(15:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(18:14) Economy(21:49) Biorisk(23:54) Nature and climate ---
First published:
October 20th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/cia-authorized-to-operate-in-venezuela
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia. Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning. Tech and AI: OpenAI's used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker's stock price soaring. Forecasts: Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:40) Geopolitics(02:43) Middle East(05:44) The Americas(05:47) South America(07:42) United States(09:38) Asia(10:09) Africa(10:28) Europe(10:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:02) Economy(15:01) Biorisk ---
First published:
October 13th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-ceasefire-agreed-trump-threatens
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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