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What are the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks each week? We parse millions of news pieces a week to find out.
Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.
Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org
Sentinel is a foresight team and emergency response team seeking to anticipate & react to large-scale catastrophes, particularly those of a speculative nature.
Learn more at https://sentinel-team.org
44 Episodes
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher. Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks. Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs. Forecasts: Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026. They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January. And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:45) Geopolitics(01:47) Middle East(06:02) Africa(06:54) The Americas(06:57) South America(08:24) United States(09:18) Europe(09:39) Asia(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:39) Economy ---
First published:
November 10th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware. Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls. Forecasts: Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week. They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:22) Geopolitics(02:25) The Americas(02:28) South America(04:40) United States(06:08) Middle East(09:04) Africa(10:37) Europe(11:07) Asia(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:48) Economy(15:19) Biorisk ---
First published:
November 3rd, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies. Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry. Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan. Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022. Forecasts: Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:06) Geopolitics(02:09) The Americas(02:12) South America(06:20) United States(09:00) Asia(10:02) Middle East(11:53) Africa(12:25) Europe(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(16:34) Economy(17:06) Biorisk---
First published:
October 27th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US. Economy: Trump said that imposing an additional 100% tariff on China would not be workable. Two regional banks in the US disclosed issues with bad loans. Tech and AI: The UK's internal security agency, MI5, warned of scenarios in which humans might lose oversight and control of AI. Biorisk: We may be [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:34) Geopolitics(02:37) Middle East(05:09) Europe(07:03) The Americas(07:06) South America(09:42) United States(12:43) Asia(14:34) Africa(15:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(18:14) Economy(21:49) Biorisk(23:54) Nature and climate---
First published:
October 20th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/cia-authorized-to-operate-in-venezuela
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia. Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning. Tech and AI: OpenAI's used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker's stock price soaring. Forecasts: Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:40) Geopolitics(02:43) Middle East(05:44) The Americas(05:47) South America(07:42) United States(09:38) Asia(10:09) Africa(10:28) Europe(10:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:02) Economy(15:01) Biorisk---
First published:
October 13th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-ceasefire-agreed-trump-threatens
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. US politics: The Trump administration was blocked three times from sending National Guard troops to Portland. Artificial Intelligence: AI progress continues with the releases of Claude 4.5 and Sora 2. California makes addressing AI catastrophic risk a legal requirement. US Senators Hawley and Blumenthal introduce a bill to address the worst risks of AI. Economy: The US economy continues to display indicators of distress. Biorisks: ∅ Climate and nature: ∅ Forecaster estimates: Will [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive summary(02:14) Geopolitics(02:17) Europe(04:51) United States(06:46) The Rest of the Americas(08:56) Middle East and South Asia(11:02) Africa(11:29) Asia-Pacific(11:56) Economy(14:41) Artificial Intelligence(17:55) Biological risks(18:41) Climate and Nature---
First published:
October 6th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising. US Politics: US government may face a shutdown, former FBI director indicted. Artificial Intelligence: USG advisors against global governance of AI. Climate and nature: Up to half of Prochlorococcus, a plankton at the bottom of the ocean food chain that produces about 5% of the planet's oxygen through photosynthesis, may die off if the climate significantly rises. Forecaster estimates: 1.2% that [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(02:10) Geopolitics(02:12) Europe(05:13) United States(07:35) The Rest of the Americas(08:38) Middle East(09:17) Asia(09:45) Economy(10:28) Artificial Intelligence(10:31) Policy(14:08) Chips, Datacenters, and Investments(14:39) Evals and Research(16:05) Other AI(17:26) Other technological risks(18:03) Climate and Nature---
First published:
September 29th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-may-shoot-down-russian-jets-next
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella. US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups. Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work. Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble. Forecaster estimates: What is the chance that Maduro will [...] ---Outline:(00:19) Executive summary(02:48) Geopolitics(02:51) Europe(05:28) United States(09:46) The Rest of the Americas(12:48) Middle East and Asia(12:51) Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement(13:58) Lebanon and Syria(14:06) Iran(14:19) Israel and Gaza(14:51) Indian subcontinent(15:38) Asia-Pacific(16:25) Africa(17:03) Economy(18:04) Artificial Intelligence(23:12) Other technology(24:51) Biorisks(25:55) Climate and Nature---
First published:
September 22nd, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-comedians-show-suspended-after
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or deliberately) results in the death of a citizen of a NATO country within the next 6 months. Israel carried out an airstrike on Qatar, killing multiple members of Hamas’ political leadership. The US condemned the strike. US Politics: A close Trump ally, conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was assassinated in the US state of Utah, leading to predictions of a rise in [...] ---Outline:(00:32) Executive summary(02:16) Geopolitics(02:19) Europe(05:09) Middle East(06:18) The Americas(06:21) The United States(08:06) Venezuela(09:27) Brazil(09:54) Asia-Pacific(11:20) Technology and artificial intelligence(15:38) Economy ---
First published:
September 15th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drones-shot-down-over-poland
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive Summary Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks. Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade. Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China. Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide. Forecasts ---Outline:(00:22) Executive Summary(01:13) Forecasts(03:54) Economy(09:24) Geopolitics(09:27) Asia(10:57) United States(12:53) The Rest of the Americas(13:48) Europe(15:52) Middle East(17:40) Africa(18:15) Artificial Intelligence(21:41) More tech(22:24) Biorisks(22:37) Climate and Nature ---
First published:
September 8th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members. Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé. Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z. Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future. Forecaster estimates: 42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(01:53) Geopolitics(01:56) Middle East(04:47) Europe(05:43) United States(07:51) The Rest of the Americas(08:50) Asia(09:42) Africa(10:31) Economy(15:16) Artificial Intelligence(19:02) Biorisks(23:17) Other---
First published:
September 1st, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025. Executive summary Top items: Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza. Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model. Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability. Forecaster estimates: What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:07) Geopolitics(02:09) Europe(05:08) Middle East(05:11) Gaza(08:06) Iran(08:29) Yemen(08:40) United States(12:00) The Rest of the Americas(13:58) Asia(14:00) South Asia(14:29) East Asia(16:52) Africa(17:46) Artificial Intelligence(20:34) Economy(21:46) Other technology(22:15) Biorisks(22:57) Climate and Nature---
First published:
August 25th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. Geopolitics ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:10) Geopolitics(01:13) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:12) Middle East(06:22) Europe(07:04) United States(08:31) Elsewhere in America(08:41) Asia(09:38) Africa(10:12) Artificial Intelligence(12:21) Biorisk---
First published:
August 18th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:30) Geopolitics(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:46) Middle East(06:57) Europe(07:44) United States(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas(09:21) Asia(10:19) Africa(10:53) Artificial Intelligence(13:02) Biorisk---
First published:
August 18th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Status: green Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month. Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:33) Biorisk(04:09) Geopolitics(04:12) Russia/Ukraine(07:48) Middle East(07:51) Israel and Gaza(09:22) Iran(11:26) United States(14:53) Asia-Pacific(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus(16:27) Africa(16:58) Tech and AI(21:10) Economy(21:12) Tariffs(22:30) US housing market(23:41) Climate and Nature---
First published:
August 11th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-preparing-to-take-over-gaza
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might meet the technical definition of famine later this year, which could serve as a Schelling point for change. Biorisks: Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Chikungunya are spreading. A paper on an AI pipeline for AI-aided discovery of antivirals provides hope for a favorable defense/offense balance change for AI. AI: Mark Zuckerberg wrote about personal superintelligence [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(03:05) Economy(06:47) Geopolitics(06:50) Middle East(12:46) United States(15:24) Asia-Pacific(17:31) Europe(19:43) Africa(20:13) Biorisk(21:00) Artificial Intelligence(21:03) Meta and Mark(23:36) Climate and Nature---
First published:
August 4th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-hunger-us-gdp-growth-driven
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached... Executive summary Key items this week are: Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies. Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods [...] ---Outline:(00:27) Executive summary(02:28) Geopolitics(02:31) Asia(02:34) Thailand and Cambodia(04:15) China and Taiwan(05:51) Singapore(06:12) Europe(09:46) United States(11:40) Africa(12:01) Middle East(12:03) Iran(13:21) Gaza(14:09) Syria(14:44) Afghanistan(15:06) Economy(16:35) AI and Technology(24:41) Biorisks(26:01) Climate and Nature---
First published:
July 28th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/thailand-v-cambodia-clashes-erupted
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Executive summary Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or the Defense Secretary saying the US would not intervene. In the Middle East, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, and Israel responded today with strikes on a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. Israel also intervened in Syria following renewed sectarian violence between Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups, later reaching a ceasefire deal with the Syrian government. OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent and [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(01:32) Geopolitics(01:35) Asia-Pacific(03:43) Middle East(05:47) Europe(06:52) United States(08:20) Africa(08:30) Technology(14:21) Biorisk(14:40) Economy---
First published:
July 21st, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/taiwan-defense-rehearsals-israel
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released. Executive summary The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following: Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%) Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%) By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised August 1 rate of 50% to 25% or less? 61% (45% to 70%) xAI released Grok 4, and a Chinese lab, Moonshot AI, released a powerful open-source model, Kimi K2, with 1T parameters. Trump announced another volley of tariff threats unless deals are reached by August 1. [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:42) Geopolitics(01:45) Middle East(03:18) Iran(04:03) Europe(05:52) United States(07:01) Asia(07:48) Africa(08:02) Economy(09:12) AI and Technology(12:34) Biorisks(13:10) Climate and Nature---
First published:
July 14th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthis-sink-ships-us-tariffs-for
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Executive summary A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up. This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions: Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that begins within the next 30 days and holds for at least a week? 44% (35% to 55%) WIll Israel and Hamas still be fighting at the end of the year? 64% (45% to 77%) Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%) What's the [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(01:24) Geopolitics(01:27) Middle East(05:05) United States(06:33) Europe(08:38) Asia(09:17) Africa(10:02) Economy(10:53) Artificial Intelligence(13:19) Climate---
First published:
July 7th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/big-beautiful-bill-passed-in-the
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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