Claim OwnershipThe Macro Minute with Darius Dale
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The Macro Minute is a daily morning podcast of what 42 Macro Founder & CEO Darius Dale is seeing in the overnight markets and where he\'s focused before the US stock market open.
273 Episodes
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Darius cuts through geopolitical noise to assess the true health of the U.S. economy. He explains why recent PCE data confirm continued resilience and disinflation, outlines the six macro cycles investors should focus on, and warns against using leverage in high-beta assets like Bitcoin without systematic risk management.
Darius examines whether rising geopolitical tensions signal a fracture between the U.S. and Europe. He explains why the risk of Europe drifting toward China in a multipolar world is increasing, how this dynamic intersects with a growing supply–demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market, and why investors should prioritize disciplined, data-driven risk management over headline-driven narratives as markets navigate the Fourth Turning environment.
Darius Dale tackles the question investors are quietly asking again: Is it time to "sell America"? He explains why a growing, geopolitically driven supply–demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market is catalyzing rotation out of U.S. assets—even as global growth remains strong. Darius breaks down rising geopolitical tensions, historically crowded bullish positioning, and why gold continues to outperform as the premier hedge against sovereign duration risk.
Today’s Macro Minute explains why fiscal policy, not Fed policy, remains the dominant driver of the economy and asset markets. Darius breaks down the sharp reacceleration in deficit spending, the implications for Treasury supply and Fed balance sheet involvement, and why fiscal dominance continues to underpin the Paradigm C regime despite rising political & market volatility.
Today’s Macro Minute breaks down why December CPI supports continued disinflation—but not faster Fed cuts—while a softening labor market keeps the inflation cycle on track. Darius explains why 2026 is shaping up as a year of market broadening beyond crowded AI trades, with financials and homebuilders emerging as key real-economy beneficiaries.
Today’s Macro Minute examines the growing political pressure on the Federal Reserve and what it means for Fed independence, markets, and the Fourth Turning regime. Darius explains why AI-driven productivity—not tariffs—may ultimately end sticky inflation and why that outcome would likely support broader market leadership in 2026.
Today’s Macro Minute examines what the December Jobs Report reveals about a jobless recovery, AI-driven labor displacement, and why slowing wage growth may be accelerating the path toward income redistribution.
Today’s Macro Minute examines whether the U.S. labor market continues to weaken, unpacks mixed signals from recent labor and ISM data, and explains why managing volatility and sequence risk matters more than long-term valuation averages.
Darius breaks down how a potential revival of Venezuela’s oil industry could pressure inflation via lower energy prices, reinforcing Paradigm C. He also discusses persistent repo market stress and why it increases the odds of further Fed balance sheet support.
As 2025 comes to a close, today’s Macro Minute examines whether Wall Street can finally catch up to Main Street in 2026, why traditional managers continue to underperform, and how KISS is built for the next regime.
Today we examine the U.S. housing market outlook, highlighting why both supply and demand are set to rise, how shelter inflation is evolving, and what it means for Fed policy and portfolio construction.
Markets are pushing higher—but is the secular bear already lurking beneath the surface? In today’s Macro Minute, Darius explains why trying to time that transition can be far more dangerous than staying systematic, and why risk management, not prediction, is the edge.
The rules of monetary policy are changing. In today’s Macro Minute, Darius walks through why Fed reform is accelerating, what fiscal dominance means for investors, and why gold is emerging as the superior alternative to bonds.
The message from today’s Macro Minute is clear: U.S. growth remains the dominant force driving markets higher. Darius explains how recent GDP, CapEx, and industrial data reinforce the Resilient U.S. Economy and Paradigm C themes, why consensus growth estimates remain far too low, and how accelerating productivity supports a bullish outlook for corporate profits despite ongoing labor market softness.
Today’s Macro Minute breaks down how the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy normalization is reshaping global bond markets and reinforcing the structural bull case for gold. Darius explains why BOJ tightening is contributing to Treasury market imbalances, what it means for global liquidity, and how systematic risk management through KISS and Dr. Mo helps investors stay on the right side of these shifting macro dynamics.
Darius Dale breaks down whether the November CPI report can ignite a long-awaited Santa Claus rally — and why distorted inflation data may be strengthening the case for policy easing in early 2026. He also highlights the growing divergence between slowing inflation and rising labor-market risks, reinforcing 42 Macro’s view that a more accommodative Fed reaction function is taking shape. Tune in for the key insights driving markets into year-end.
Today, the Macro Minute tackles whether the AI trade is truly over—and why the answer is a resounding no. Darius explains how Paradigm C and the early steps into Paradigm D continue to fuel AI investment, capital-market buoyancy, and liquidity support. He breaks down the geopolitical catalysts pushing gold and precious metals to new highs, highlights the risks of crowded bullish positioning, and revisits the startling reality that the U.S. dollar has been devalued over 60% against gold this year.
Today’s Macro Minute unpacks how rising unemployment and softening payrolls confirm the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish reaction function. Darius explains why investors should expect policy easing through the first half of 2026 and how crowded bullish positioning raises the risk of bubbles in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. He also highlights historic optimism among global asset managers and answers a KISS user question on why the model favors gold over Bitcoin in the current regime.
Darius breaks down the Fed’s shift toward a more dovish, expansionary policy framework — a move that raises the probability that Paradigm C and Paradigm D may operate simultaneously. We explain why this pivot turns five of the six major macro cycles into powerful tailwinds for risk assets and increases the odds of bubbles forming in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.
Today’s Macro Minute breaks down the Fed’s likely hawkish cut, why bonds have already priced it in while equities have not, and how a divided FOMC is complicating the policy outlook heading into 2026. We also highlight the growing importance of balance-sheet clarity amid rising funding stress and explain how KISS and Dr. Mo are navigating this choppy, catalyst-starved environment with discipline.
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