The Telos News Podcast with Ryan Lizza

In our conversation today, G. Elliott Morris takes us through his comprehensive analysis of Tuesday’s election results.Some key highlights:* So much for the Trump realignment. The 2025 results reflect a typical anti‑incumbent reaction to the party in power after it failed to deliver on promises to address inflation and affordability. As Morris puts it, “The 2024 Trump ‘realignment’ is already over.”* The economy dominated (as it almost always does). Exit polling revealed that the economy and cost of living were the top issues. Voters who prioritized these issues flipped hard to Democrats compared to 2024. * The swing came from 2024’s Trump‑leaning groups. The biggest shifts in 2025 back to Democrats were among young voters, lower-income voters, Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters.* The polling “miss” had a cause. Off‑year polls that re‑weighted to 2024’s presidential electorate overestimated GOP strength.* Candidate quality mattered, but modestly. Weak GOP nominees were plausibly worth perhaps 1–2 points, but the dominant force was the anti-incumbent mood tied to affordability concerns. * Looking to 2026: Expect a normal (and possibly amplified) backlash against the presidential party if economic perceptions don’t improve.* Ideological lessons? The results don’t validate sweeping ideological narratives pushed by Democratic groups. Voters rewarded anyone who credibly addressed affordability—from a left-wing NYC mayoral candidate to the pragmatic governors in Virginia and New Jersey.* What about democracy? The swing against Trump has some important lessons for the anti-Trump coalition. For me, at least, it is sobering, if not totally surprising, that it was mostly the economy—and not Trump’s attacks on the rule of law and democracy—that fueled Tuesday’s blue wave.Some data points that Elliott and I dig into:* What voting groups moved?* Young voters: 22‑point swing back to Democrats.* Voters with income of less than $50,000 per year: 18‑point Democratic swing.* Black voters: 11‑point move back to Dems.* Asian voters (VA): 42‑point swing back to Dems.* Issue salience:* Economy cited by 48% of Virginia voters and some 4 in 10 voters in New Jersey. These voters shifted from supporting Trump by 65 points in 2024 to supporting the Democrats by 30–40 points in 2025.* A key local example: Union City, New Jersey (82% Hispanic) shifted from a 17‑point Democratic margin in 2024 to a 69‑point Democratic margin in 2025 (with higher turnout). * Don’t overinterpret the results. These big shifts are caused by unattached, relatively non-ideological swing voters who quickly desert the party in power if it fails to deliver on its promises. That really has been the core story of the last 10 or so national elections in the U.S., and it vastly complicates both the right’s Trump realignment narrative and the left’s narrative about a natural anti-Trump majority. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Lev Parnas, Mark McInerney, Dianne Mize, Susan DRENNAN GABRIEL, Sandra Tuttle, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Mark McInerney, Kelli Pryor, Leah Anderson, carolyn strawn, Stuart Cohen, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt!You can join me and Steve on Substack Live every Monday at noon.Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

In our weekly chat, Steve Schmidt and I discuss:* The growing pains in the coalition that has formed against Trump, including why clear-eyed Trump critics such as Andrew Sullivan refused to join the protests on Saturday* Gavin Newsom’s wise decision to close a stretch of I-5 before the Marines, at the insistence of the Trump administration, fired live artillery over the highway, including one shell that detonated prematurely in mid-air and scattered shrapnel onto two California Highway Patrol vehicles that were part of JD Vance’s security detail* Kristi Noem’s Gulfstreams* Why I was driving around downtown Washington during the No Kings protests in a red pickup truck with a “Fire Pelosi” bumper sticker on the back (it’s not what it sounds like!)* And, of course, the Toronto Blue JaysThank you Nadine Smith, Dianne Mize, Angie T, joe alter, Jacqueline Dorinda Maddox, and many others for tuning into our chat. You can join me and Steve on Substack Live every Monday at noon.Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

This was a delightful conversation that went in many unexpected directions—everything from the wisdom to be gained from reading Moby Dick in 2025 to the pleasures of raising a puppy to wellness advice to the lessons learned from Ian Kershaw’s biography of Hitler.Miles and I are going to discuss the possibility of a regular Substack-based book club so please let us know if that might appeal to you. At the very least, Miles and I will be doing more of these conversations, which have turned out to be pretty popular with readers of both Telos and Treason.Please consider a paid subscription to both!Thank you Cat, Richard Hogan, MD, PhD(2), DBA, joe alter, Janet Carter, Maureen Drews, and many others for tuning in! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Mark McInerney, Dianne Mize, An Mcgreevy, Sandra Tuttle, joe alter, Marina, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt!You can join me and Steve on Substack Live every Monday at noon.Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Dianne Mize, Cat, Iulia Huiu, Leah Anderson, John H, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt!You can join me and Steve on Substack Live every Monday at noon.Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Steve and I discuss the fascist—sorry, no other word—rhetoric from Trump at today’s address to military leaders in Quantico.I have more to say about the speech in my latest column here. Thank you Cat, Steve Lubetkin, Leah Anderson, Nancy McAllister, Pamela, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt.You can join me and Steve live every Monday at noon. Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

I really enjoyed this conversation with Ben, one of the breakout stars of independent media. I appreciate his optimism about the future that he expressed at the end—and I hope he’s right!Thanks to everyone who tuned in! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Former Rep. Joe Walsh was a victorious Tea Party candidate in the Republican wave year of 2010 who later broke with the GOP over Trump. He has deep insights into something I wrote about recently: the tranformation of the libertarian Tea Party into the authoritarian MAGA movement. Joe was also a mentor to Charlie Kirk back in the slain activist’s formative years. We discussed all of this and much more earlier this evening. (We didn’t get to it, but Joe is also reportedly considering running for Congress again—as a Democrat.) Thanks to everyone who tuned in and make sure you subscribe to Joe’s Substack. Telos News is marking Constitution Day by offering a 20% discount on all tiers of paid subscriptions, including Founding Memberships, which allow you access to monthly virtual town halls, including one this Friday at 4 PM with Judge J. Michael Luttig. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Iulia Huiu, John H, P. J. Schuster, Sandra Tuttle, Mike Harkreader, and many others for tuning into my weekly chat with Steve Schmidt! We’ll be on a break next Monday, but back again in two weeks. If you value these weekly conversations with Steve—and all the work we do at Telos News—please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Supporting independent media has never been more important. — Ryan This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

In our weekly chat, Steve Schmidt and I break down the latest federal court decisions on tariffs and the Posse Comitatus Act, discuss which Democrats are best positioned for 2028, pick over the latest absurdities out of Trump’s Oval Office comments, and talk about Steve’s budding interest in gardening and birding. Thanks to Mark McInerney, Dianne Mize, Iulia Huiu, J.J. Loughran, Julie, and many others for tuning in.Steve and I will be back on Monday at noon!Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

I always learn something when I talk to Miles, and today was no different. His inside knowledge of how Trump wanted to abuse DHS in his first term continues to be enormously relevant to understanding Trump this time around. Thanks to everyone who tuned in, including Sue Gordon, eric, MissGuided Kris, Janet Carter, Ms. H, and many others! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Paul Krugman on Trump's Attempt to Take Over the FedThanks to the nearly four thousand of you who joined Paul Krugman and me for this excellent conversation, including G. Elliott Morris, Cat, Wesley Neff, H. Pike Oliver, Leah Anderson, and many more. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Stephanie G Wilson, PhD, Bernadette Beach, Arnaud Mittempergher, John H, P. J. Schuster, and many others for tuning into my weekly Substack Live with Steve Schmidt!We had a huge audience this week, and this one is well worth watching if you missed it. Steve and I plowed through a lot of material, including the truly ridiculous spectacle at the White House today.Please note I somehow neglected to post our last chat, which occurred the day Trump sent troops to D.C., but it’s up now and you can find it here. Steve and I will be off on Monday for Labor Day, so we’ll record our weekly chat next Tuesday at noon instead.In the meantime, you can catch me and Miles Taylor tomorrow at 11 AM on Substack Live. Miles has unfortunately been correct in predicting many of Trump’s worst actions, including his obssession with sending troops to Democratic cities.Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

In our weekly chat from August 11, Steve Schmidt and I discuss the beginning of Trump's occupation of D.C. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

In our weekly chat Steve and I discuss wjether Gavin Newsom is the 2028 Dem frontrunner and break down the 2028 field.Also: the pitfalls of constitutional hardball, gerrymandering and the midterms, and whether Democrats should commit to impeaching Emil Bove and purging the federal government of MAGA operatives.Join Steve and me on Substack Live every Monday at noon! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Thank you Iulia Huiu, Sandra Tuttle, J.J. Loughran, Meidas_hj, Jason Dyer, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt! Join Steve and me on Substack Live every Monday at noon!Telos subscribers: Please use this link to get 20% off a paid subscription to The Warning with Steve Schmidt! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

Steve and I break down the dangers of an unrestrained Trump controlling a super-funded ICE.Thank you Iulia Huiu, John H, eric, bruce beckman, Sandra Tuttle, and many others for tuning into my live video with Steve Schmidt!Steve and I will be back next Monday at noon. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe

I sat down yesterday with Judge Luttig to discuss the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Paine, King George, Donald Trump, and what the 1770s have in common with the 2020s, all of which are addressed in his new piece for Telos News marking the July Fourth holiday. You can read Judge Luttig’s piece, “The Self-Evident Truths of Freedom—and of Tyranny,” here.You can listen to an audio version of Judge Luttig’s piece here.You can also watch Luttig’s recent interviews with Steve Schmidt, Jim Acosta, Charlie Sykes, and Anand Giridharadas.I was enormously proud to publish Judge Luttig’s modern-day statement of self-evident truths, and I want Telos News to be an outlet for this sort of original writing from people of Luttig’s stature.But I can’t do it without you. If you haven’t done so already, please consider becoming a paid subscriber to support this work. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.telos.news/subscribe