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© Jennifer Pickerel
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Welcome to Commodity Compass Weekly with Jennifer Pickerel, your essential source for navigating the fast-moving world of commodities. Every week, we break down the biggest market movers, trends, and macro factors driving price action across energy, metals, agriculture, and beyond. Whether you're trading oil, watching gold, or managing risk in softs and grains, this podcast delivers sharp insights and a forward-looking view to help you stay ahead.
Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
46 Episodes
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This week’s commodity story came down to three data points, and none of them were bullish for a resolution. Iran’s IRGC turned back two Chinese-flagged vessels — CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean — owned by China’s state shipping giant, less than 48 hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly promised safe passage to ships from five friendly nations, China among them. That promise lasted two days. Washington postponed — again. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants, pushing the threat out to April 6th. And finally, White House proposals went nowhere.
Commodity markets were driven by one overwhelming reality this week: the Middle East conflict moved from a war narrative to an energy system story. After earlier strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the week was defined by the widening fallout — attacks spread across major oil and gas sites in the Gulf, Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, and the commercial viability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became a daily question rather than a tail risk.
This week, commodity markets traded under the shadow of a single question: what happens if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a battlefield? After last week’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the story shifted from the initial shock to the consequences. Through the week, Iran stepped up threats against shipping lanes in the Gulf while the U.S. and its allies moved additional naval assets into the region, forcing energy markets to constantly reassess the risk of supply disruption.
The commodity complex was thrown into one of the most geopolitically charged environments we’ve seen in years this week. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets escalated tensions across the Middle East and immediately forced markets to reprice risk. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves—saw shipping slow dramatically, with insurers pulling coverage and tanker traffic collapsing as the region turned into a conflict zone.
This was a week where volatility wasn’t random — it had a trigger. The release of the Citrini report sent shockwaves through high-multiple tech names, reigniting questions around valuation, liquidity sensitivity, and just how fragile the AI-led equity rally might be. That pressure in growth stocks quickly bled into broader risk sentiment, and by midweek the tape felt defensive rather than euphoric. At the same time, rhetoric toward Iran turned sharply hawkish, with clear U.S. military positioning into the weekend raising the risk premium across global markets. The combination of tech instability and geopolitical escalation created a classic rotation trade — capital moved out of momentum equities and into hard assets. Safe-haven demand in gold and silver built steadily throughout the week, not in a panic spike, but in persistent accumulation.
This week was a headline trader’s market. The Supreme Court’s decision to take up challenges related to presidential tariff authority reintroduced uncertainty around trade policy, and that uncertainty rippled through metals and energy. At the same time, renewed U.S. military movements in the Middle East — including repositioning of naval assets — injected a fresh geopolitical risk premium into crude and safe-haven flows.
This week, commodities traded in a market that was recalibrating fast. U.S. inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the disinflation trend and sending Treasury yields lower across the curve. That drop in rates, paired with a generally weaker U.S. dollar, created a supportive backdrop for hard assets and rate-sensitive commodities. Broadly speaking, the commodity complex leaned constructive — with precious metals finding a bid and energy stabilizing — even as volatility remained elevated.
This week’s commodity session was driven by whiplash volatility across risk assets, with early-week caution giving way to sharp reversals as traders recalibrated macro expectations into Friday. U.S. labor signals helped set the tone: ADP showed just 22,000 private-sector jobs added in January, well below expectations, while weekly jobless claims jumped more than expected, with snowstorms cited as a major driver — all of it feeding the narrative that the labor market is losing momentum at the margin. That softer growth pulse kept rate expectations lively and pushed markets to trade every data point through the lens of “how soon and how deep” policy easing could get in 2026.
This week was defined by a violent correction in precious metals, with both gold and silver pulling back hard after months of relentless upside, as profit-taking, a stronger U.S. dollar, and shifting rate expectations triggered one of the largest weekly drawdowns we’ve seen this cycle. A major macro headline hanging over markets was the growing buzz that Kevin Warsh is President Trump’s preferred pick for the next Fed Chair — a nomination viewed as more hawkish and more market-discipline focused, which pushed yields higher and cooled some of the easy-money narrative that had fueled metals. At the same time, the U.S. dollar staged a notable rebound, snapping a multi-week slide and creating mechanical pressure across the entire commodity complex.
This week felt like a classic rotation trade: precious metals higher, base metals mixed, and energy chopping around as geopolitics and capital flows drove the tape. Gold and silver caught a strong bid as tensions around Greenland cooled, removing some near-term geopolitical risk but paradoxically pushing investors back into monetary hedges rather than hard-risk assets. Commentary from the World Economic Forum added to that tone, with policymakers openly discussing debt sustainability, de-globalization, and the fragility of sovereign balance sheets — not exactly a backdrop that inspires confidence in fiat assets.
This week’s commodity price action was defined by a dramatic mix of geopolitical risk and shifting macro data that set the tone early — only for sentiment to fade into Friday’s close. Markets opened the week with heightened tensions in Iran, including new confrontations and sanctions headlines that briefly lifted energy and safe-haven commodities on fears of supply disruption in the Middle East. That geopolitical risk premium was amplified by mixed macro data out of the U.S. — where inflation readings showed persistent stickiness even as jobs data remained softer than expected — leaving traders conflicted about the path for policy and growth.
This week commodity markets were dominated by a mix of geopolitical risk, macroeconomic signals, and shifting expectations about inflation and growth. Oil prices were especially reactive to unfolding events in Venezuela, where U.S. intervention and moves to potentially redirect Venezuelan oil exports into global markets injected volatility into crude benchmarks. At the same time, U.S. economic data — notably weaker-than-expected jobs figures — reinforced that labor market momentum has slowed, tempering inflation pressures and complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations for 2026. Support for Commodity Compass comes from TerraHutton.
Commodity markets were genuinely mixed this week as a new batch of U.S. economic data exposed growing discrepancies in inflation signals, complicating expectations for monetary policy in 2026. While headline CPI and PPI continued to cool, components tied to shelter, services, and food prices remained sticky—keeping real-asset investors cautious rather than aggressive. Markets also reacted to renewed headlines around Venezuelan oil flows, as U.S. officials signaled flexibility on enforcement amid broader energy-security concerns, weighing on crude but supporting downstream inflation narratives. The metals were the big outperformers this week, while energy continued to show weakness and agriculture was mixed.
This week’s commodity price action was dominated by central-bank policy and government intervention headlines, starting with the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates and resume short-dated Treasury purchases, which markets interpreted as a renewed liquidity backstop. That move initially supported precious metals and energy, but also reinforced concerns that economic momentum is slowing faster than expected. Equity markets turned volatile as investors debated whether the Fed’s actions were pre-emptive easing or a response to deeper stress, triggering broad de-risking that weighed on industrial commodities. The U.S. dollar softened early in the week before stabilizing, creating choppy cross-currents across metals and energy. Adding to the macro mix, the White House floated a new farmer bailout proposal, aimed at offsetting lower crop prices and export uncertainty, which briefly supported some ag sentiment while underscoring stress in the rural economy.
Hopes for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve (given soft inflation and weak hiring trends) buoyed non-yielding assets, but the broader tone remained cautious as traders weighed soft demand against still-ample supply. The result: demand-sensitive commodities — base metals, energy and industrial minerals — came under pressure, while safe-haven assets saw sporadic bouts of interest.
This week’s macro backdrop was dominated by sharp volatility across global equity markets as investors reacted to mixed economic signals and concerns over the capex spend on the AI buildout. Risk appetite swung day-to-day, with investors unwinding positions in growth-sensitive assets and rotating defensively into cash and short-duration instruments. The recent U.S. government shutdown compounded the instability, raising fresh concerns about delayed data releases, contracting federal spending, and the broader economic drag heading into year-end.
It was a volatile week across global markets as the U.S. government shutdown finally ended, but worries about growth, stretched tech valuations, and policy uncertainty kept investors cautious. Commodities traded defensively ... gold and silver fluctuated on shifting Fed expectations, while platinum, palladium, and copper softened on weak demand signals from China. Matt Geiger of MJG Capital joined the KE Report to discuss the precious metals correction and outlook. In energy, oil edged higher after a Russian export terminal attack, natural gas spiked on cold-weather forecasts, and coal prices rebounded on stronger Chinese and European buying. Agriculture markets saw wild swings following a bearish USDA report, with traders bracing for more volatility into year-end.Click here to listen to all the Clear Commodity podcasts
This week, commodity prices slid broadly as global equity markets de-risked and traders grew cautious about growth prospects. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown — now the longest in history — continued to cloud economic visibility, with consumer sentiment plunging to its lowest levels in years. Private-sector jobs data further whispered caution: the latest surveys showed significant weakness and announced layoffs, amplifying fears of a slowing economy.
The headlines this week were dominated by politics and trade: In Argentina’s mid-term elections, Javier Milei’s party secured a decisive win, boosting market confidence in Argentina’s reform agenda, lifting the peso, and energizing investment-interest in Latin American mining and agricultural export sectors. At the same time, the United States and China announced a trade truce: China agreed to resume large-scale U.S. soybean purchases and to delay expanded rare-earth export controls, while the U.S. offered tariff reprieves in exchange. For commodity markets this cell of events meant a dual-push: agricultural commodities — especially soybeans and grains — received a bid on the promise of eased trade friction, while metals and strategic minerals felt renewed focus on supply-chain geopolitics and investment flows.
The commodity narrative this week shifted from metals volatility to policy and geopolitics in the Americas. Washington moved to quadruple low-tariff beef imports from Argentina to curb grocery inflation, alarming U.S. ranchers and signaling a deeper strategy to pull Argentina out of China’s orbit in soy and critical minerals. At the same time, Beijing advanced new barriers to foreign access in rare earths and battery metals, reinforcing strategic supply-risk themes. Energy sentiment firmed on new U.S. sanctions targeting major Russian producers and fresh talk of refilling the SPR, while livestock markets reeled from the policy shock and grains stayed driven by harvest and export flows.
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