徒然なる自動車業界の将来動向

1/19週に 高い注目を集めた #1-233 のEnglish version を用意してみました。日本語版を聴いた後ですと、内容をつかみやすいと思います。リスニング練習に活用いただければ幸いです。

＝＝＝＝＝ショートバージョン＝＝＝＝＝　2025年から2030年にかけての自動運転業界における技術的転換と地政学的な勢力争いを分析したものです。従来のルールベース（AV1.0）から、生成AIや大規模言語モデルを活用して複雑な判断を可能にする「End-to-End（AV2.0/VLA）」への劇的なシフトが強調されています。業界のリーダーであるWaymoやTeslaを筆頭に、日産と提携するWayveやホンダが支援するHelm.aiなど、各社の生き残り戦略が詳細に描かれています。また、米国による中国製ソフト・ハードの排除規制が、「西側ブロック」と「中国ブロック」への市場分断を決定づけている現状が指摘されています。最終的に、2030年のモビリティ社会の覇権を握るのは、技術的優位性だけでなくコスト競争力と政治的適応力を備えた企業だと分析を示します

This report provides a detailed analysis of the financial headwinds and strategic pivot points Tesla is facing in the first half of 2025. It specifically focuses on the vulnerability of free cash flow and the shift of management resources towards AI and robotics ventures, such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxis. Furthermore, through a comprehensive comparison with its primary competitor, BYD, the report elucidates the contrasting business models, technological strategies, and the evolving dynamics of their global market presence. It recommends that product portfolio diversification, enhancement of cost competitiveness, and addressing geopolitical risks are essential for Tesla to secure sustainable growth.

This article focuses on the advanced manufacturing technologies used in the body structures of automobiles. Specifically, it compares two major technologies, hot stamping and giga casting, and explains in detail their respective advantages and disadvantages, particularly their impact on crash safety and recyclability. It also touches upon BYD's CTB (Cell to Body) technology, which integrates the battery pack into the body structure, and how major automakers like Tesla, Honda, and Nissan are adopting these technologies and making strategic choices between materials (steel and aluminum). Overall, the text reveals the strategies and technical approaches of various companies in reducing the number of parts, decreasing weight, and improving production efficiency in automobile manufacturing, as well as the challenges they face in terms of repair and recycling.

Executive Summary:Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Honda") revealed a significant "course correction" for its future in the "2025 Business Update" announced by President Toshihiro Mibe on May 20, 2025. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest information one month after this announcement and the June shareholders' meeting, to predict Honda's future trends.The core of this analysis is Honda's shift from its previous ambitious single-minded focus on electric vehicles (EVs) to a more realistic and diversified strategy. This new strategy centers on "intelligence" (知能化), significantly strengthening its lineup of profitable hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), while redefining its EV portfolio to be more selective and focused. This strategic shift is driven not only by external environmental changes such as the global slowdown in EV market growth and regulatory changes, but also by internal factors such as pressure from the capital market to improve profitability, symbolized by the low PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio).Of particular note is the plan to position HEVs as a "fortress of profit" in the key North American market. The abundant cash flow generated there is intended to be directed towards massive investments in "intelligence" technologies, exemplified by next-generation ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) and their proprietary OS, "ASIMO OS". This represents Honda's strong determination to challenge emerging players like Tesla and China's BYD, who are leading in EV competition, not merely on the battlefield of powertrain, but on a new playing field of "Software-Defined Vehicle" (SDV), where software defines the car's experience value.On the other hand, a major uncertain factor that will determine the success of this grand strategy is the future of the collaboration with Nissan Motor Co.. This alliance, which initially promised significant synergies such as the commonization of core EV components and joint development of SDV platforms, now faces an unclear future after discussions for a management integration broke down. Currently, the collaboration remains limited to "loose cooperation" in specific areas, and it is uncertain whether this will lead to concrete cost reductions or accelerated development.Such strategic shifts and uncertainties are clearly reflected in the stock market's reaction. Honda's stock price remained sluggish throughout June, and the shareholders' meeting saw a series of tough questions regarding the low profitability of the four-wheel business and the progress of the collaboration with Nissan. While the market largely understands Honda's realistic strategic shift, it maintains a "wait-and-see" stance, awaiting concrete results regarding its execution capabilities and future profitability improvements. This report analyzes these trends from multiple perspectives, clarifying the challenges and opportunities Honda faces.

Executive Summary:"The crisis currently facing Nissan Motor Corporation is not merely a slump in performance. It is a structural and ontological challenge that has emerged at the intersection of the shadows of past successes and the once-in-a-century wave of great transformation sweeping through the automotive industry. This report thoroughly compares and analyzes the current mid-term management plan 'The Arc' with the 'Nissan Revival Plan (NRP)' previously led by former Chairman Carlos Ghosn, evaluating Nissan's potential for revival and proposing concrete strategies for its survival.In conclusion, while the new management plan 'The Arc' is an inevitable response to the failure of the expansion strategy post-Ghosn era, it is insufficient to secure Nissan's long-term competitiveness in today's fundamentally transformed automotive industry competitive environment. The success of the NRP during the Ghosn era was heavily dependent on the business environment at the time, and ironically, its methods created the long-term vulnerabilities that plague the company today. Therefore, the likelihood of 'The Arc' succeeding in its current form must be evaluated as low.For Nissan to truly survive, a more drastic strategic shift is essential, going beyond merely achieving the goals of 'The Arc'. As a prescription for this, this report proposes the following four pillars:Fundamental reform of Research and Development (R&D) and product philosophy: From 'balance' to 'prominence'.Thorough reform of corporate culture and organization: Rewiring for speed management.Redefinition of alliance strategy: From heavy and bulky to agile creation.Pioneering new business models: From selling iron to selling services.Nissan is now being tested on whether it has the courage to break away from its past glory and undergo a major, future-defining operation. The time remaining for this choice is extremely short."

The provided text details Nissan's precarious financial state and its comprehensive "Re:Nissan" restructuring plan, unveiled by CEO Ivan Espinosa. This strategy, a survival effort rather than a growth initiative, addresses a significant financial loss and a downgrade to junk bond status. Key elements include drastic cost reductions like personnel cuts and factory closures, a strategic focus on core markets, and an unconventional pivot to utilize China as a global export hub for cost-effective electric vehicles. The plan also highlights a dual-pronged electrification approach with new EVs and advanced e-POWER technology, alongside an innovative move in autonomous driving through AI integration. Despite a recent failed merger attempt with Honda, the text concludes that the market remains skeptical, as evidenced by plummeting stock prices and contentious shareholder meetings, indicating the formidable challenges Nissan faces in its independent recovery.

Analyze Ruchir Sharma's 2018 book, "The Rise and Fall of Nations," which introduced ten criteria for predicting a country's economic trajectory. The first source offers excerpts from the Japanese translation of Sharma's book, outlining his original framework and its application to various nations, categorizing them as "rising," "average," or "falling." The second, more recent source, serves as a critical re-evaluation of Sharma's predictions seven years later, assessing the accuracy of his initial forecasts against actual economic performance, considering significant global events like pandemics and geopolitical conflicts. This follow-up analysis then proposes three new indicators—technological advancement (especially AI), geopolitical resilience and supply chain security, and social cohesion—arguing that these are now crucial for forecasting national success in an increasingly complex world, thus updating and expanding Sharma's original "rules" for the 2030 outlook.

The sources delve into "SDV's Unique Business Models", outlining the necessity for Software-Defined Vehicles (SDVs) to establish new business models beyond merely reflecting added value in the vehicle's sales price. SDVs, or Software Defined Vehicles, present numerous advantages, but their full realization requires the construction of novel business models to determine who to offer services to and how to generate profit.

The latest trends in automotive battery technology and the strategies of major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), clarifying the sources of competitive advantage. The current market is clearly bifurcated by two main technological trends: Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) based batteries, which deliver long range and high performance, and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, which excel in cost efficiency and safety. LFP, once limited in application due to its shorter range, has seen dramatic improvements in energy density through structural innovations like Cell-to-Pack (CTP) and is now becoming mainstream for mass-market EVs1. This development is a critical factor in determining the price competitiveness of EVs.

China's strategy of creating excess capacity in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) and autonomous driving (AD) sectors, drawing parallels to its past approach in the steel industry. The texts highlight how this leads to fierce domestic competition, low profitability for many manufacturers, and aggressive export drives causing international trade friction, particularly tariffs. They explain that while this benefits consumers with lower EV prices, it poses a significant challenge to global automakers, forcing them to adapt through cost reduction, technological innovation, and strategic partnerships. The sources also emphasize the synergy between BEVs and AD technology as a new element allowing China to compete on both price and advanced features, potentially influencing global technical standards and supply chains and escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding economic security.

3 companies (GM, Ford and Stellantis) are balancing investments in their profitable traditional combustion engine businesses with significant spending on future technologies. They are developing new EV platforms and battery chemistries while also navigating the complexities of autonomous driving development and the challenge of making EVs cost-competitive with gasoline vehicles. The texts highlight each company's specific strategies, such as Stellantis's multi-brand, multi-energy platform approach and GM's focus on its Ultium battery platform and Super Cruise ADAS, as well as the significant hurdles they face, including intense competition, supply chain complexities, and evolving market demand.

Aurora faces key challenges: high costs/cash burn, competition, regulations, and significant partnership tension, especially with PACCAR. Strategies include financial discipline, strengthening OEM relations, rigorous safety validation, and market expansion via unique tech. Success hinges on overcoming partner issues.

SoftBank's autonomous driving strategy is clearly differentiated from that of traditional car manufacturers and many other players in the field by focusing on establishing "autonomous driving as infrastructure" rather than primarily developing the vehicles themselves. This approach leverages SoftBank's long-standing core competencies in "communication technology," "AI," and "IoT".

This title encompasses the key areas we have covered: Pony.ai's use of strategic partnerships as a core component of its business strategy, the significant event of the 2025 vehicle fire incident, and the analysis of how this incident affects the company's reliability and future business development. It also touches upon the broader future prospects and challenges discussed.

Momenta's strategy leverages a "Two Legs" product approach (Mpilot ADAS & MSD Robotaxi) fueled by a data-driven "Flywheel". Mpilot generates revenue and vast data for algorithm refinement. The "Mapless" strategy cuts HD map costs and boosts scalability. MSD aims for cost-efficient scaling via hardware reuse. This enhances growth and profitability through market entry, data leverage, and cost reduction.

They detail the multifaceted challenges hindering widespread CASE adoption, including infrastructure gaps, regulatory uncertainties, high costs, and public acceptance issues. Simultaneously, the texts outline the strategic responses of major OEMs like PACCAR, Daimler Truck, Navistar, and Volvo, emphasizing their investments, partnerships with startups (particularly in AV and EV ecosystems), and efforts to build integrated solutions. Crucially, the sources highlight the fundamental transition of OEM business models from purely selling vehicles to providing service-centric solutions, such as fleet management, predictive maintenance, and Transport-as-a-Service, aimed at creating recurring revenue streams and enhancing customer value by reducing Total Cost of Ownership.

This report discusses the transformative period in the automotive industry driven by electrification and digitalization, noting a recent slowdown in purely EV growth alongside increased demand for hybrid vehicles, highlighting a market seeking diverse solutions. It emphasizes the significant pressure on traditional supply chains due to decreasing component counts and the rise of software-defined vehicles. Facing competitive threats from Chinese manufacturers excelling in EV production and software integration, the analysis proposes that the optimal strategy for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) depends on their scale and strengths, advocating for strategic partnerships and external collaboration, especially for smaller companies, while larger ones should leverage existing assets and integrate software development. The report also examines the emergence of new players like Foxconn with its EV contract manufacturing model and the growing importance of robotaxis and Mobility as a Service (MaaS), suggesting a shift from vehicle ownership to service utilization. Ultimately, the text concludes that OEMs must redefine "monozukuri" (manufacturing) to include software and services, embracing agile decision-making and strategic external partnerships to navigate this evolving landscape.

These sources discuss Honda's recent strategic shift in its automotive business, moving from a primary focus on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to prioritizing hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and next-generation advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). This change is presented as a pragmatic response to the current slow-down in the global BEV market, aiming to enhance overall vehicle competitiveness through "intelligentization." The documents emphasize that successful development in advanced ADAS/AD and HEV systems is highly capital-intensive and requires specialized expertise, making strategic partnerships essential despite Honda's historical "independent" culture and perceived difficulties in past collaborations, such as with GM/Cruise. The sources suggest Honda should prioritize focused technical partnerships for key components, secure HEV component supply, explore regional joint ventures, and actively participate in industry ecosystems to ensure future growth and relevance in the evolving, software-defined vehicle era.

This podcast discusses Nissan's severe financial difficulties, including significant operating losses and negative cash flow, which mirror past crises. To address these issues, Nissan has launched the "Re:Nissan" structural reform plan. Key objectives of this plan include reducing excessive fixed costs through major personnel cuts and plant consolidations, optimizing the production system to lower the break-even point, and ultimately achieving stable profitability. The sources also highlight the importance of accelerating electrification strategies, redefining the alliance with Renault and Mitsubishi for greater synergy, and rebuilding brand value to restore trust and market competitiveness.