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Expected Own Goals
Expected Own Goals
Author: xpectedowngoals
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EVERYONE ANALYZES WOMEN'S SPORTS
Evan Davis and Eric Morgan are best friends who love each other. But they love women's soccer more. Every week, the guys sit down to explore the tactical and analytical sides of the women's game, covering the NWSL, USWNT, WSL, Women's Champions Leauge, Liga MX Femenil, and beyond. No stone is left unturned as they seek to learn more and more about how women's soccer is played, who's good, who's not, and who is going to win it all.
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The Denver Summit are like the Boston Legacy: they are an expansion team with no drafts for roster-building, a new precedent in the NWSL. Unlike Boston, they hired a longtime GM in the league, a head coach with top-flight American soccer experience, and a slew of league veterans to patrol the backline. But what about the rest of the roster? How do you build a team from scratch when all you have is $4 million to sign 26 players? Catalina Bush and Kieran Doyle-Davis of American Soccer Analysis join the guys to sort out Denver's strengths, weaknesses, and what can be reasonably expected of this unique women's soccer experiment.
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Buy official xOG merch now!
Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
The Boston Legacy are arguably the greatest mystery in 13 seasons of the NWSL. Without any drafts to acquire talent—and with a young European sporting director focused on bringing new players into the league—we don't have many benchmarks against which to judge their potential. Boston Globe reporter Emma Healy came on the show to try and shake out what the Boston Legacy are as they stand on the precipice of their inaugural season.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Buy official xOG merch now!
Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
The guys are knee-deep in season preview content, but they catch up with some news around the league, from the Thorns' hire of Robert Vilahamn as their new head coach, Aubrey Kingsbury's pregnancy, Gabi Portilho's transfer to the Wave, and the risible new docuseries, The Final Third.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
For the first time since she took over, USWNT head coach Emma Hayes didn't call in any uncapped players in this international window. Is she homing in on her core pool for World Cup preparations? The guys ponder who's in and who's out.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Now that the dust has settled, the guys parse the mammoth Croix Bethune and Claire Hutton transfers for all involved. Who wins? Who loses? Where does this all leave the Kansas City Current?
Plus, we catch up on a bunch of signings over the past three weeks.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
We're back! The guys once again closed the 2nd annual American Soccer Insights Summit in Houston over the weekend, and brought Houston Dash analyst Chloe Dhillon and ASA VizHub creator Catalina Bush to talk about the state of data in women's soccer from the public and private sides of the industry. Needless to say, there were plenty of insights to go around!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
TRIGGER WARNING: Beginning around the 42-minute mark, there's a discussion of ICE's execution of Alex Jeffrey Pretti.
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RECORDED BEFORE EMMA HAYES' COMMENTS ABOUT MINNEAPOLIS
We start off with the easy stuff: Trinity Rodman remains with the Washington Spirit. The guys break down all the nitty-gritty of her contract now that more details have come to light.
Then, they marvel at the brazenness of NWSL commissioner Jessica Berman's comments to the press last week, and that she said the quiet part louder than any sports commissioner ever has before.
Finally, after a quick analysis of the USWNT's 6-0 smashing of Paraguay at the weekend, we lament the lack of acknowledgment by U.S. Soccer and the players of the execution of Alex Jeffrey Pretti in Minneapolis on Saturday.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
RECORDED BEFORE DETAILS OF RODMAN'S $2 MILLION AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE WAS REPORTED
Hot off the presses and straight from the most important press conference in women's soccer history (according to the participants), the guys wrap their heads around Trinity Rodman's new three-year contract with the Washington Spirit. How did this deal get done? What effect does the league's proposed High Impact Player rule have on the contract's terms? How does it fit into the rest of the Spirit's offseason? Buckle up, gang!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
RECORDED BEFORE CLAUDIA MARTÍNEZ NEWS
First things first: Meghann Burke has offered news on the state of the union's grievances against the league! The bad news is it's gonna be awhile before anything is resolved.
Then, the guys move on to signings. Denise O'Sullivan has moved to Liverpool. Macey Hodge has gone to Racing Louisville. Melissa Kössler and Maja Lardner offer good respective case studies on how to contextualize data in international transfers and college signings.
But seriously, WHAT IS GOING ON IN SAN DIEGO??? Four starters have left the club in the last month, not to mention earlier departures of María Sánchez and Naomi Girma. Ludmila and KiKi Pickett have come in (and Trinity Byars should finally be available), but what is the state of the roster right now? Are things as bad as they were even in the post-Jill Ellis era?
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
Follow us on TikTok and Instagram
Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get bonus episodes and the main feed ad-free!
RECORDED BEFORE LUDMILA'S TRANSFER TO SAN DIEGO WAVE
The NWSL hot stove is officially lit! The headlines this week are Sam Coffey's transfer to Manchester City, with Lindsey Heaps coming the other way from France and signing with her hometown Denver Summit. What do these deals represent for the Thorns and Summit respectively? Did Portland get fleeced? Is Heaps the marquee signing on the field that she will be off the field? The guys dig into this, plus Emily Sams, Ary Borges, Savannah McCaskill, Kailen Sheridan, and many more.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
Follow us on TikTok and Instagram
Did we make an own goal? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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The year has come to a close, so as we always do, we take a look back on all the things we got wrong over the last 12 months. And there are some doozies!Did we miss any? E-mail us at xog@xowngoals.com!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The NWSL dropped their "High Impact Player" rule two mornings before Christmas, and they're acting like they don't need the NWSL Players Association to negotiate and sign off on it. The union has different ideas. The guys walk through all of the insane details of the rule, why the league released it just before a major holiday, and what the union can do about it.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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With the year coming to a close, it's time to reflect on the best players of the 2025 NWSL season. The guys draft players into their respective best XIs, bicker and argue all the way, and then try to synthesize both into the Official xOG Best XI. Agree with their choices? Disagree? Sound off!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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NOT A PATREON MEMBER? Use the code "XOG" to get a year's subscription for 50% off!!!
The NWSL offseason is officially in full swing. Teams have given roster updates, and extensions/re-signings are being announced along with significant deals like Ally Schlegel's to North Caroli—oh, who are we kidding? There is only one story in the league right now, and it's one that will affect every other deal for the rest of the offseason no matter how it ends. Trinity Rodman was ready to re-sign with the Washington Spirit, until the league rejected the terms of the deal. The players union is now appealing the decision. How did we get here? Does the league have any defensible case? Should the union lose, what does that mean for the future of free agency in the NWSL, and of its ability to attract and retain top talent from all over the world? This story is nowhere close to done, so strap in!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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NOT A PATREON MEMBER? Use the code "XOG" to get a year's subscription for 50% off!!!
The U.S. women's national team took down Italy 5-0 on aggregate across a window that saw the 26th and 27th players get their first caps under Emma Hayes, an all-time record for a U.S. head coach. What has 2025 meant for the USWNT, and how has it set themselves up for the next phase of their World Cup preparations?
The guys also do a quick news roundup from the past two weeks, including the Rob Gale firing, the Hailie Mace and Jess Fishlock signings, and other bits and bobs.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Fly Bats, fly! Gotham FC won their second NWSL title on Saturday, squeaking past the Washington Spirit 1-0 on a miracle goal from Rose Lavelle in the second half. Did the Spirit deserve to lose? Did Gotham deserve to win? What ultimately separated the two sides, how should they view their seasons as a whole?
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Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The moment has finally come! In the now-most-played fixture in NWSL—and in what may now finally be called a true rivalry—the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC face each other in San Jose for all the marbles. The guys hung out at each team's training to figure out who has the edge. The projections make Gotham slight favorites, so why do our guts tell us the Spirit have the advantage? They try to make sense of it all.
Subscribe to our Patreon for only $6/month to get exclusive bonus content, including the show ad-free!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Yael Averbuch West will be the first to tell you she didn't fully grasp what the job of General Manager would entail when Gotham FC tapped her for the post. Four years and a Championship trophy later, Gotham finds itself knocking on the door of another title. Averbuch West sat down with the guys to share her evolution as a GM, the club's evolution from where they were, and what she has attempted to instill in Gotham at every level.
Patreon is unpaywalled this month! If you have enjoyed these bonus episodes, subscribe for only $6/month to get exclusive bonus content, including the show ad-free!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Washington Spirit GM Mark Krikorian stepped down from his position back in March, but instead of rushing to find a replacement, owner Michele Kang entrusted the front office to two of Krikorian's protegées, interim GM Nathan Minion and sporting director James Hocken. How did Minion and Hocken navigate the at-times rough seas that was the 2025 season, and how have they continued to shape the organizational philosophy of the Spirit over the last eight months? Nathan and James sat down with the guys to talk all about their journeys, and how the Spirit ended up contending for a title for the second straight year.
Patreon is unpaywalled this month! If you have enjoyed these bonus episodes, subscribe for only $6/month to get exclusive bonus content, including the show ad-free!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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It was more than 90 minutes of dross, capped by a moment of magic: 2023 NWSL champs Gotham FC squeaked past 2024 champs Orlando Pride thanks to Jaedyn Shaw's free kick wizardry and little else. Neither team played well. How much does that inform Orlando's offseason outlook? How can Gotham find the juice to get past a peaking Washington Spirit in the Championship game? The guys muse over all of it.
Subscribe to our Patreon for only $6/month to get exclusive bonus content, including the show ad-free!
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices


















