Boardroom Statecraft

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill and Dr. Treston Wheat discuss the evolving landscape of global politics, focusing on the implications of US foreign policy and China's strategic responses. They explore the importance of stability in international relations, the role of multilateral institutions, and the emergence of a multipolar world. The conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities for businesses navigating this transitionary period, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill and Dr Treston Wheat unpack a framing that helps explain why US foreign policy currently feels so disruptive to allies and markets: the United States behaving as a revisionist power. They explore how the post 1945 US role as a stabilising architect of the liberal order is giving way to a more explicitly transactional posture, where Washington engages internationally only on its own terms. The discussion connects this shift to growing pressure on Europe to rebuild defence capacity, to the declining authority of multilateral institutions, and to the way businesses should think about market access, supply chains, and long term strategic planning as the global order fragments.

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, hosts Ross Hill and Dr. Treston Wheat delve into the importance of bold inferences in analysis, particularly within the context of geopolitical and business intelligence. They discuss the historical trend of neutrality in analysis, which often leads to vague conclusions, and argue for a more assertive approach that clearly communicates insights and forecasts. Dr. Wheat emphasizes the necessity of having a defined analytical framework, such as realism, to make informed predictions about global events and their implications for businesses. The conversation highlights the evolving role of corporations as geopolitical actors and the need for analysts to articulate their reasoning to enhance decision-making processes.Find out more How We Think: Realism in Geopolitical Risk Analysis

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill and Dr. Treston Wheat discuss the evolving landscape of US foreign policy, focusing on Greenland, Cuba, and Iran. They explore the implications of military interventions, the shift from multilateralism, and the potential consequences for international relations and business strategies. The conversation highlights the need for businesses to adapt to these geopolitical changes and the importance of thorough analysis in navigating this complex environment.

In this episode, Ross Hill and Dr Treston Wheat examine the US operation against Nicolás Maduro and what it reveals about contemporary American strategy in the Western Hemisphere. The discussion focuses on how long-running strategic signals, including shifts in US national security doctrine, hemispheric security priorities, and the designation of narco-terrorism, shaped an intervention that stopped short of full regime change.The episode explores why this operation aligns with the Trump administration’s preference for rapid, decisive action without occupation, drawing comparisons to historical precedents such as Panama in 1989. Ross and Treston assess the geopolitical drivers behind the move, particularly the desire to constrain Chinese and Russian influence and deny access to critical resources, rather than humanitarian or democratisation objectives.Finally, the conversation turns to implications for business and markets. The episode unpacks the realities of Venezuelan oil production, infrastructure decay, and long-term investment risk, alongside the likelihood of continued US pressure through counter-narcotics operations. The key takeaway is strategic rather than tactical: corporate risk increasingly sits downstream of geopolitical bargaining, not domestic reform.Music for this episode is by @barleysentient on Suno

In this special episode of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill is joined by Insight Forward intern Sofia Bohan to discuss her research into modern disinformation and why it has become a core feature of geopolitical competition. The conversation explores how misinformation and disinformation campaigns evolve from online narratives into real-world political and security consequences, drawing on examples such as QAnon in the United States and state-led influence operations by Russia and Iran. Sofia outlines how social media dynamics, psychological vulnerability, and perceived credibility allow false narratives to spread rapidly, particularly during periods of uncertainty and crisis.The episode then turns to the implications for corporations. Ross and Sofia examine how disinformation increasingly targets companies and executives, shaping consumer behaviour, investor sentiment, and physical security risk regardless of factual accuracy. They discuss how state and non-state actors exploit polarisation, influencer networks, and emerging technologies such as generative AI and deepfakes to erode trust and control narratives. The discussion concludes with why monitoring information environments is now a strategic necessity for businesses operating in a fragmented and contested geopolitical landscape.You can read the full report at https://www.insightforward.co.uk/reports/

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, we examine how the traditional boundaries between peace and conflict have collapsed, pulling corporations into the centre of geopolitical competition. What was once the domain of states and intelligence services is now a contested battlespace where private companies are targeted, leveraged, or coerced through cyberattacks, sabotage, supply chain disruption, and information operations.

In this bonus edition of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill is joined by Insight Forward intern Trevor Johnson to unpack why cobalt has become one of the most strategically contested minerals in the world and what that means for businesses. Drawing on Trevor’s research project, they explore how China’s dominance over cobalt mining and refining, centred on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is shaping geopolitical competition, supply chains, and corporate risk exposure from EVs and batteries to aerospace and defence.Trevor’s full report on cobalt, the DRC and corporate risk is available via the Insight Forward website Latest Geopolitical Reports & Corporate Insights

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, Ross Hill and Dr Treston Wheat continue their series on the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2026 with Risk #9. They examine how the rapid rise and proliferation of autonomous weapons systems – especially cheap, adaptable drones – is reshaping modern warfare and opening up a new class of risks for companies, cities and critical infrastructure. Drawing on case studies from Ukraine, Russia, Armenia–Azerbaijan and India–Pakistan, they explore how battlefield innovation around “human machine platoons” and low-cost drones will eventually diffuse into the hands of non state actors, organised crime groups and terrorists. The conversation then turns to the constraints on corporate counter-drone activity, the lagging legal environment, and how emerging technologies such as autonomous vehicles and AI-enabled cyber attacks could change both the threat landscape and the expectations placed on corporate security teams.Music for this episode is by @barelysentient on Suno.

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, we unpack Risk 8 in our Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2026: Revolutionary Violence in the new Gilded Age. We revisit our earlier report on this theme and explain how inequality, collapsing trust in institutions and rapid technological change are combining to lower social and moral barriers to violence, both online and offline.We compare today’s environment with the original Gilded Age, explore how political and ideological grievances are converging on corporations and their leaders, and look at what this means for protests, online harassment campaigns and targeted attacks. We close by focusing on the practical implications for corporate security and executive protection teams, and why they now need to integrate political and geopolitical analysis into their protective intelligence.

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, we explore Risk #7 in our Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2026: modern radical politics on the left and right. We look at how politics is being pulled toward the harder edges across the US, UK, Europe, Latin America, India, Israel and beyond, and how the Overton window has shifted so that once-fringe ideas now shape mainstream debate. We discuss the long-term failures of centrist, post-Cold War policymaking, the loss of trust in traditional parties, and how that vacuum has been filled by populist movements that offer emotive, simple answers but often produce volatile or incoherent policy.We then connect this directly to corporate risk. We talk about policy whiplash (for example on trade, tax, immigration, and DEI), the way radical parties can influence policy even when they are not in power, and how ideological alignment is starting to affect alliances and market access. Finally, we flag how rising radical ideology increases the likelihood of political violence and societal instability – a theme we will pick up in the next episode on revolutionary violence.Music is by @barelysentient on Suno.

In this episode, we explore one of the most overlooked yet consequential risks shaping the business landscape in 2026 — the erosion of social bonds and collapse of trust. What begins as a sociological trend now extends deep into corporate risk, driving political polarisation, workplace conflict, and consumer fragmentation.We discuss how decades of atomisation, the decline of community life, and the rise of identity politics have transformed social cohesion into a strategic variable for business. From Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone to Edmund Burke’s “little platoons”, we trace how the weakening of shared institutions has reshaped both civic and corporate environments — and why brands and executives now find themselves pulled into cultural disputes that were once confined to the political sphere.

In this episode, Ross and Treston unpack the rising concern over bias in large language models and its implications for business, politics, and information ecosystems. As AI systems become embedded in corporate workflows and decision-making, the hosts explore how cultural, political, and commercial bias seeps into data and rules, shaping what people see, believe, and decide.They discuss AI as a new arena of soft power competition between China and the West, how LLMs can reflect partisan or ideological leanings, and the emerging phenomenon of “LLM SEO” — manipulating models to amplify certain narratives.

In this episode, we examine Debt Overhang & Crowding Out — the fourth of the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Business in 2026.We explore how decades of ultra-low interest rates created a global dependence on cheap credit. As rates normalise, the political and corporate debt burdens accumulated during that era are constraining growth, investment, and strategic freedom.Key ThemesFrom cheap credit to structural pressure: The long shadow of post-COVID inflation and sustained high interest rates is reshaping both fiscal and corporate balance sheets.Sovereign debt and political risk: Rising debt-to-GDP ratios in the US, Europe, and Japan highlight the limits of fiscal space and the potential for governance paralysis.Corporate debt and stagnation: Over-leveraged firms face limited room to manoeuvre, leading to downsizing, delayed innovation, and suppressed hiring.AI, technology, and long-term profitability: We assess how debt levels could determine which tech firms survive the current wave of AI-driven investment.Global South vulnerability: Fragile tax bases and reliance on external creditors expose emerging economies to IMF conditionality, unrest, and political instability.Interconnected risk: High debt levels signal not just financial weakness but systemic governance strain — linking fiscal policy, national security, and business continuity.Signals to MonitorSharp tax increases or emergency budgetsRising bond yields and refinancing challengesLarge-scale layoffs, asset sales, or corporate restructuringsIMF programmes tied to subsidy cuts in developing economies

In this episode, we continue our series on the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Businesses in 2026, turning to Risk #3 — Industrial Policy and Geoeconomics. We examine how governments are abandoning decades of free-market orthodoxy in favour of state-led industrial strategies designed to protect national interests, secure supply chains, and reassert economic sovereignty.The discussion explores:How industrial policy has re-emerged as the economic extension of great-power competition and techno-nationalism.The evolution from neoliberalism to interventionism, tracing roots from Alexander Hamilton to the CHIPS Act and beyond.How national security framing justifies tariffs, subsidies, and state involvement across sectors once considered purely commercial.The semiconductor industry as a case study—why it set the template for deeper state-corporate integration.The tension between what is good for a corporation and what is good for a country, illustrated through U.S.–China technology policy.Winners and losers: how energy, hydrocarbons, and certain emerging markets like Vietnam and Mexico could benefit, while agriculture and innovation face headwinds.Why protectionism may be more destabilising than industrial policy itself.The rise of a “Hamiltonian capitalism”—a new model where prosperity and security are increasingly fused.Key TakeawayThe liberal economic order is giving way to a Hamiltonian era of strategic capitalism. For corporations, success will depend not just on market performance but on political alignment, negotiation, and an ability to operate within government-defined priorities.

In this week's episode, we discuss how techno-nationalism is reshaping the global economy. Governments are moving to control data, AI, chips, and the critical minerals behind them. The result is tighter rules, fragmented supply chains, and companies needing a clearer foreign-policy lens.This is part of our series covering our Top 10 Risks for Businesses in 2026: download the full report here Top 10 geopolitical risks for business 2026Music for this episode is by @barleysentient on Sora.

In this week's episode we discuss why great-power politics remains the defining backdrop for 2026, how a shift toward hard-edged transactionalism is reshaping alliances and regions, and what this means for corporate strategy, supply chains, and market access. We use history as a guide (the “long nineteenth century,” the Concert of Europe, Bismarck’s balance-of-power craft) to frame today’s risks and opportunities, and we explain why leader personalities and national political cultures now matter more for forecasting than abstract institutional models.For the complete analysis and practical implications by sector, see the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for 2026 report: https://www.insightforward.co.uk/top-10-geopolitical-risks-for-business-2026/

Why do so many modern leaders look skilled at the sound bite but weak at getting things done? In this episode, we discuss the decline in political effectiveness and how it fuels today’s populism. We trace how the attention economy reshaped the skill set for office, why vision and institutional mastery have thinned out, and what that means for policy volatility and corporate risk. From C-SPAN sound bites to primary-system incentives, LBJ’s dealmaking, Nixon–Kissinger centralisation, and the Thatcher/Blair era, we contrast past statecraft with today’s programme-management politics. We close with Plato’s Republic, the philosopher-king ideal, and practical implications for executives.

This week we carry on the conversation about the online aftermath of the Charlie Kirk killing and what it signals for corporate risk. We explore “mimetic nihilism” and ****posting as threat vectors, the rise of crowd-sourced doxxing lists, the new wave of firings over celebratory posts, and how companies are being squeezed from both ends—consumer expectations below and state power above. In the second half they examine shifting political norms in the US, where legal boundaries sit, and what real indicators of democratic backsliding would look like.

In this episode of Boardroom Statecraft, we examine the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk in the United States and its wider implications.We discuss Kirk’s role in shaping the conservative youth movement, the suspect’s uncertain motives, and why the killing fits into a troubling pattern of targeted violence against political figures and business leaders worldwide. The conversation connects today’s climate of polarization to historic periods of political violence in the U.S., Europe, and beyond, drawing parallels to the late 1960s and 1970s.Key themes include:The blurred line between political polarization and violent extremism.How recent assassinations and attempts — from U.S. politicians to corporate CEOs — highlight growing risks to high-profile figures.The shifting tactics of left- and right-wing extremist groups, and what that means for future incidents.Why corporations and their executives are increasingly perceived as geopolitical actors and potential targets.The international dimension: rising populism in Europe, large-scale protests, and parallels across Latin America and Asia.The episode concludes with a forward-looking assessment of how businesses and governments should prepare for escalating political violence and the spread of targeted attacks.