The 10-Minute Take
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Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
121 Episodes
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1Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year. What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting. Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.
We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow. South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.
Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate. In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.
The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdownHow the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.
In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss: Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlookHow the growth agenda is central to the government’s fiscal planWhether the budget does enough to catalyze growth – and the execution risks that could derail itIf Canada can afford to spend big right now
It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.
Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as:• What exactly does Canada export—and where does it all go?• Has Canada always been this dependent on the U.S. market?• Which provinces are most at risk from trade disruptions?• Should we worry less about tariffs on certain goods like fungible raw materials than others?In this episode on the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into these questions and more.
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points. But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border. In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?
U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss: • Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.
Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.
Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.
A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.
• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.
• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).
• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.
Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:
• How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.
• How higher energy prices could impact growth.
• What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.
An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating.
This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
• How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden.
• What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.
The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle:
• How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth.
• How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025.
• Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.
The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year.
But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions.
• Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines.
• How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.
Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth.
The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions.
RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions:
· How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada?
· Will either country see a recession in the coming year?
· What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?
More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate.
In the goods trade, Canada's geographical proximity to the U.S. makes it difficult to diversify away from the U.S. But, that is much less of a constraint for services.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into:
• How much services Canada trades and with who?
• Is Canada is well positioned to leverage services for broader trade diversification?
• What are the headwinds facing services amid the ongoing trade war?
Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witnessed a notable deterioration in other “soft” sentiment data in recent months.
The extent that recent trade policies have impacted hard data is unclear but matters more for central bank decisions. In this week’s episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down how trade turbulence is impacting labour markets in Canada and the U.S., and what to expect next in the ongoing trade war.
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