The 10-Minute Take
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Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
114 Episodes
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Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points. But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border. In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?
U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss: • Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.
Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.
Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.
The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars.
A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
• The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term.
• Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs.
• How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration).
• How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.
Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:
• How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.
• How higher energy prices could impact growth.
• What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.
An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating.
This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.
• How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden.
• What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.
The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle:
• How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth.
• How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025.
• Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.
The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year.
But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:
• How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions.
• Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines.
• How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.
Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth.
The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions.
RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions:
· How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada?
· Will either country see a recession in the coming year?
· What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?
More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate.
In the goods trade, Canada's geographical proximity to the U.S. makes it difficult to diversify away from the U.S. But, that is much less of a constraint for services.
In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into:
• How much services Canada trades and with who?
• Is Canada is well positioned to leverage services for broader trade diversification?
• What are the headwinds facing services amid the ongoing trade war?
Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witnessed a notable deterioration in other “soft” sentiment data in recent months.
The extent that recent trade policies have impacted hard data is unclear but matters more for central bank decisions. In this week’s episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down how trade turbulence is impacting labour markets in Canada and the U.S., and what to expect next in the ongoing trade war.
Economic data has shown that Canadian inflation was a little firmer than expected in early 2025, especially after considering the impact of the federal tax holiday that pushed prices lower for a few categories including restaurant dining.
In the U.S., the picture is a bit “stickier.” Broadly resilient consumer demand has been keeping price pressures at uncomfortably high levels, and not all U.S. households are impacted equally. Those that earn less tend to have less options in avoiding higher priced essentials.
Join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they give their latest take on inflation, and how the looming trade rift plays into that.
As the threat of tariffs has been evolving, economists have been busy assessing the potential economic fallout. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:
-What we know about the tariffs announced, what retaliation could look like and how these forces will impact both the Canadian and U.S. economies.
-What Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in the January meeting about how the Bank could respond.
-How markets reacted to tariff news and how we are assessing the balance of risk between a hit to demand and price pressures arising from potential policies.
Join us as we unpack how we’re thinking about the potential damage from a trade war.
The looming threat of potential U.S. tariffs is keeping economists and monetary policymakers up at night. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:
-How RBC Economists are thinking about a U.S. tariff shock- including the multiple stages of passthrough to the economy.
-How we think the Bank of Canada could respond to higher prices resulting from tariffs.
-Why “reshoring” isn’t as easy as it sounds.
Tune in to hear why tariffs are demand-destructive and to understand the Bank of Canada’s predicament if required to respond to these policy-induced price-shifts. While we highlight that the economic damage is likely too severe for these threats to materialize, we also discuss what the consequences would be for the U.S. and Canada if tariffs are implemented.
Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip against the U.S. dollar, to levels unseen since the pandemic.
In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:
• The key drivers behind the loonie’s recent slump.
• What this means for inflation in the current economy.
• Where we think the currency is headed in 2025.
Tune in to hear why we don’t expect the Bank of Canada to bat an eye, and how Canada’s strong net international investment position will be particularly helpful.
The Canadian economy has been through a whirlwind in 2024. Canada has been in an extended period of underperforming per capita growth compared to the United States since 2019. Still, 2024 was a pivotal year for Canadians with inflation coming down and interest rates finally moving lower.
But has inflation truly been tamed? If so, why doesn't it "feel" like affordability has truly gotten better? And, how do big policy pivots on immigration and global trade fit into it all?
Join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this 2024 10-Minute Take wrap-up episode. They'll discuss the highlights in a year-in-review before addressing key themes for 2025 in the final episode of the season.
The U.S. government deficit is unusually large at 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2024—the average over the last five decades is 3.7%. Promises from the new Trump administration on the campaign trail suggest it is likely to grow even bigger over the next four years.
Massive fiscal spending has been fueling U.S. growth, but will have important and, ultimately, costly consequences for the economy. Lower corporate taxes could also hurt Canada’s competitiveness, at a time when the economic divergence with the U.S. is already large. In this 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dive into the growing government deficit in the U.S., and its ripple effects on Canada.
Canadian household balance sheets appear exceptionally strong as disposable income continues to rise alongside savings. But, what the latest economic data tells us is distinctly different from how many households are feeling. There are many signs the average Canadian consumer is suffering. How can both be true at the same time?
On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this paradox of some Canadians falling behind on credit card payments, while others see savings rise. We’ll unpack the different realities experienced by various income groups, focusing on spending behaviours, debt accumulation or savings, and the distinct difference between wage growth and changes in disposable income.
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