Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do? In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in the UK — shares the 5-principle framework he uses to make investment decisions during a geopolitical crisis. We call it The Geopolitical Shock Playbook. DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. We are sharing how we think about markets during a crisis. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns.   You’ll also see why high P/E doesn’t automatically mean “expensive” (and low P/E doesn’t automatically mean “cheap”), plus a surprising comparison between S&P 500 vs FTSE total returns and how differently those returns were achieved.  New episodes every week. Subscribe so you don't miss the next one. 🔗 LINKS Neil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.com  Last week's episode — Why UK Stocks Could Be the Trade of the Year https://youtu.be/nJ9o0WXocBM   What you’ll learn in this video • How to interpret P/E ratios and why they’re only the start of the analysis   • The difference between earnings and cash flow, and why both matter   • Why overpaying can lead to years of disappointment even when a business performs • How sentiment and valuation can dominate returns versus fundamentals   • A practical framework for thinking about growth expectations and valuation risk ⚠️ This content is for education and information only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a regulated adviser if you need personal recommendations. If you’ve got a question you’d like us to cover in a future episode, email us at hello@w4pz.com.

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks. In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in British investing history — breaks down why he believes UK consumer spending is about to inflect, what the savings ratio doubling to 10% really means, and why interest rate cuts from the Bank of England could trigger a recovery almost nobody is pricing in. We cover the five domino chain reaction from rate cuts to stock prices, the biggest household deleveraging in modern UK economic history, the ONS measurement scandal that makes UK productivity look far worse than it actually is, and what all of this means for domestic-facing UK equities — from banks to housebuilders to retailers. If you watched last week's episode on UK regulatory reform, this is the other half of the story. The plumbing is being fixed. The fuel is about to flow. New episodes every week. Subscribe and hit the bell so you don't miss the next one. 🔗 LINKS Neil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.com Last week's episode — UK Regulatory Reform: https://youtu.be/8UV3F3_ptr0?si=Z9-QqUuOKOruKv4N Is It Time To Buy British?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhexIETWueU Bank of England Monetary Policy Report: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/february-2026

This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies. The same institutions that have almost entirely abandoned British equities are now queuing up to fund Google's AI ambitions for the next century. In the same week, the London Stock Exchange itself became an activist investor target, its shares down 35%, barely functioning as an exchange at all. In this episode, Neil and Jon trace the three regulatory decisions over 25 years that systematically broke the UK equity market — from pension accounting rules that forced the biggest owners to sell, to MiFID 2 destroying the research ecosystem that kept smaller companies alive, to the Brexit confidence shock that drove international investors out. The numbers are stark. UK pension funds owned 32% of the market in 1992. Today: 1.5%. London accounted for 18% of global IPOs at its peak. Today: effectively zero. The market has lost 44% of its listed companies. More money now leaves through dividends and buybacks than arrives through capital raising. But here's where it gets interesting. Neil argues that this two-decade wrecking ball has created a generational valuation opportunity. UK equities trade at 10-11x earnings against a US market at 25x. The historical relationship between starting valuations and subsequent returns — which holds with 75% accuracy over 50 years — predicts low double-digit annual returns from the UK over the next decade. The same relationship predicts the S&P 500 delivers pretty much zero.   Neil's articles referenced in this episode: 🔗 A Quarter Century of Damaging Reforms 🔗 Can the UK Equity Market Recover? ▶️ Is Now the Right Time to Buy UK Stocks?

$1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next. In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down: Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought any) The Bank of England's rate decision—and why Neil thinks they got it wrong Bitcoin's 40% crash: buying opportunity or death spiral? Where Neil sees value when the S&P 500 looks stretched

Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy. We discuss whether the dollar is really dying, if gold and silver are in a bubble, and why the "picks and shovels" approach to AI investing is finally paying off. Plus: why UK equities remain dramatically undervalued, how to stress-test your investment strategy, and Warren Buffett's timeless advice on valuation. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We're sharing how we think about markets. Always do your own research and consult a professional.

Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, we dig into the psychology of being wrong as an investor, when to hold your nerve vs pivot your strategy, and what could actually happen to your portfolio if geopolitical tensions escalate further in 2026. We cover: Why Neil's geopolitical predictions didn't play out The psychology of changing course vs staying the course How to know when you're wrong vs just early What happens if Trump actually moves on Greenland or Canada Taiwan, TSMC and the semiconductor risk Russia, Ukraine and the energy implications Middle East scenarios and oil price impacts

In December, Neil published his 2026 outlook, calling for 2% UK growth while the consensus predicted just 1%. This week, the FT polled 103 economists — two-thirds expect even MORE tax rises due to "persistently weak growth." Neil thinks they're wrong. Again. In this episode, we stress-test Neil's thesis against the consensus view. We cover: - Why the same economists who were wrong in 2025 are making the same mistakes again - The Venezuela shock — why oil DROPPED when everyone expected chaos - The AI "bubble" that isn't — it's a new arms race - The really undiscovered story about UK domestic stocks   📥 DOWNLOAD Neil's Full 2026 Outlook: https://www.w4pz.com/global-economic-outlook-2026/ 🎬 WATCH our 2026 Outlook Podcast: https://youtu.be/z-Vuk2qlk0s

Neil walks through his big calls for 2026: the AI industrial revolution, whether China is really “uninvestable”, why he thinks the EU is still a story of missed opportunities, the hidden fragilities in the US, and why he believes the consensus on the UK remains far too gloomy. We cover: How AI, energy and productivity could shape growth and markets in 2026 China’s outlook after years of pessimism and what investors might be missing Security, energy prices and regulation as structural headwinds for the EU The resilience and risks inside the US economy – and why he wouldn’t own the S&P 500 index Why UK shares may still be one of the most attractive opportunities globally In the second half, Neil explains how he’d actually construct a strategy for 2026 – by geography and by sector – including what he’d be underweight or avoid altogether.

US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t). Jon and Neil stress-test the popular “2007 again?” narrative and separate market panic from actual plumbing risks. Neil pushes back on the idea that today’s private credit story is a straight replay of subprime, arguing the parallels are overstated and that most of the market is conventional longer-term lending. We also cover: 💰 Leverage and market structure: where genuine fragility might sit if funding conditions tighten, and why leverage concentrated in financial-market plumbing matters more than headline doom narratives.   🇯🇵 Japan as the “quiet character”: why rising JGB yields and the yen carry trade may be less of a structural threat than many assume.   ₿ Crypto systemic risk vs bad investment: MicroStrategy, stablecoins, and why Neil differentiates between an ugly trade and a system-wide destabiliser.

Rachel Reeves' second UK Budget as Chancellor might have been the most leaked Budget in history, but will her economic policy and change to taxes actually work? Neil Woodford and I discuss what she actually did, what she could have done and what the impact of her changes will be on the UK economy and the UK stockmarket.  If you're an investor in UK equities, this episode is for you. And if you'd like to see how Neil has set up his investment strategies post-Budget, we have a special offer for Noise Cancelling Podcast listeners. The first 50 people to sign up via the link below will receive 40% off their first subscription. Visit https://www.w4pz.com/podcast for more details and to join.

Is AI really a bubble? Is the UK economy broken with a huge “black hole” that forces Rachel Reeves to raise taxes? Is Bitcoin finally dead after the latest crash? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford takes on the doom-mongers and explains what’s actually going on – and what it means for investors. This week’s headlines say it’s all over: • AI is a bubble or even a Ponzi scheme • The UK economy is “broke” and facing a massive fiscal black hole • Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are collapsing again Neil doesn’t buy most of it. In this conversation, Neil and Jon Adair break down three big stories: 🤖 AI bubble or Ponzi? Why Neil thinks calling AI a Ponzi scheme is nonsense, where valuations are excessive, and which parts of the AI trade he believes are still underappreciated. 🇬🇧 Britain is “broke” and Reeves must hike taxes What a UK fiscal “black hole” actually is, why it’s more about forecasts and politics than immediate crisis, and why Neil still sees opportunity in a deeply unloved UK stock market. ₿ Bitcoin: investment or pure gamble? Why Neil sees a bet on Bitcoin as much closer to gambling than investing, what could genuinely kill the Bitcoin story, and how to think about crypto in a sensible portfolio. At the end of the episode, Neil sets out a simple framework for dealing with doom-laden headlines about markets: how to weigh stories against valuation, history and real cash flows before touching your portfolio. If you want to see how Neil is actually positioned on AI, the UK and more, his strategies and holdings are available on W4.0. More information: https://www.w4pz.com  Use the code PODCAST for 30% off your first subscription.

Are AI valuations out of control? Are investors blindly following the Mag7? In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down the real risks in the AI boom, why the S&P 500 is more concentrated than most people realise, and why he believes the consensus has completely misunderstood this moment in markets. Neil explains why he still questions the valuations of the largest AI companies, how the Mag7 have distorted global asset allocation, and why the strongest opportunities may now sit outside the obvious US tech giants. We discuss whether this is another “AI bubble”, how today differs from the dot-com era, why China and the UK have surprised investors in 2025, and what most people are missing about the next decade of returns.

Neil Woodford calls out Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' ‘expectation management’ speech ahead of the UK Budget — arguing that Britain’s economic problems aren’t caused by low taxes, Brexit or Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, but by record government spending. In this week’s episode, Neil dissects every claim from Rachel Reeves and exposes what he calls “the big lie” about Britain’s economy. He explains why raising taxes won’t fix the UK’s problems, how inflation and spending have pushed interest costs to £100 billion, and why productivity isn’t what economists think it is. We break down the data behind debt, growth, and the OBR’s forecasts — and reveal which sectors could benefit as inflation and interest rates fall. If you care about the UK Budget, Rachel Reeves, taxes vs spending, and Britain’s growth outlook, watch this before Budget Day. Nothing in this podcast or W4.0 is financial advice.

Nvidia just became the world’s first $5 trillion company, but can that kind of dominance really last? In this week’s conversation, Neil Woodford explains why he believes valuation is the financial law of gravity—and why even the strongest markets eventually have to obey it. Neil also answers quick-fire questions on the Magnificent Seven, the hype around AI infrastructure, and whether markets have lost the ability to separate signal from noise.

Is Brexit really dragging down Britain’s economy and the stock market, or is there more to the story? Valuations in the UK stock market are low so is now the right time to invest? For a limited time only, join W4.0 with the discount code "PODCAST" to receive 30% off your first subscription. More details at: https://www.w4pz.com/landing/welcome-var1/  In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil Woodford discuss the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, particularly focusing on investor sentiment, market performance, and productivity. They explore the significant outflows from UK equity funds, the resilience of the UK economy post-Brexit, and the ongoing debate about whether Brexit is to blame for productivity issues. Neil argues that the pandemic has had a more detrimental effect on the economy than Brexit, and he emphasises the importance of long-term investment strategies in the current market environment. The discussion also touches on market valuations, risks, and opportunities for investors looking to navigate the current economic landscape. Not financial advice.

Is it better to buy the bubble or miss the boom? Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they discuss the implications of high valuations on future returns, the performance of Neil's Top 40 investment strategy, and the significance of accurate productivity data in the UK. The conversation also touches on the ongoing trade tensions with China and the role of central banks in shaping economic growth and important announcements from TSMC and ASML.

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, they investigate the speculation surrounding a potential market crash, analyse the reasons behind gold reaching $4,000/oz, and examine the political turmoil in France.

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, is an AI bubble forming? Neil unpacks the hype and reality of AI’s economic impact as well as how he's positioned the W4.0 strategies to benefit from the AI industrial revolution without having to accept ludicrous valuations. We also discuss the likelihood that the UK will need an IMF bailout.

Join Neil Woodford and Jon Adair as they discuss the week’s major market developments. In this episode, Neil shares his perspective on Donald Trump’s surprise shift on Ukraine and what it signals for geopolitics and markets. We cover the growing clash over drug pricing in the UK and why major pharma companies are pulling back investment. Neil also explains why he agrees with PIMCO that UK inflation and interest rates could fall faster than consensus expects, and what the $4 trillion wave of AI investment means for future returns — and for investors tempted to trust ChatGPT with their stock picks.