The Elephant In The Room Property Podcast | Inside Australian Real Estate

What’s really behind the shift we’re seeing in regional property market trends, especially along the NSW South Coast? In this episode, we sit down with our good friend and local expert Matthew Knight as someone who’s been living and breathing this stuff for years, to give us the real story. We’ve heard all the noise about COVID booms and tree changers flooding coastal towns, but what happens after the rush settles? Are people still moving out of the city, or has the tide gone out? Matthew walks us through what he’s seeing on the ground; where prices surged way too far, where they’ve pulled back, and which areas are starting to bounce back. We talk about the rise of Airbnb buyers again, the return of holiday home interest, and how first-home buyers have actually had some solid opportunities, despite what the headlines say. The regional property market trends aren’t one-size-fits-all, and this chat really digs into why. We also get into infrastructure changes like the Shell Cove Marina and new hospitals, and how those are making a real difference for retirees, families, and essential workers looking to settle in. And of course, we couldn’t help but talk about schools, childcare, and what happens when a region grows faster than it’s ready for. This one’s a grounded, honest look at life beyond the cities; what’s working, what’s struggling, and what might be next. If you’ve been watching regional property market trends and wondering where things are headed, this episode’s got plenty to chew on. Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 01:12 - Who is Matthew Knight? 01:29 - How has the South Coast property market changed since COVID? 05:44 - Which areas were hit hardest when the South Coast boom was corrected? 08:18 - Did city buyers push prices beyond what locals consider fair value? 10:53 - Why are some beach towns struggling more than others? 13:15 - Are more investors shifting to short-term rentals like Airbnb? 15:49 - Why have some people reversed their sea change and returned to the city? 23:36 - Did first-home buyers take advantage of softer conditions in 2024? 28:40 - What infrastructure upgrades are reshaping the region? 32:01 - Are zoning changes and new housing keeping up with growth? 33:41 - What broke when the population boomed and is it being fixed? 36:45 - What does the next five years look like for the regional market? 39:37 - How much does the future of remote work affect the coast’s appeal? 42:07 - Do locals just visit the city when they need a dose of culture or convenience? 46:22 - Matthew Knight’s property dumbo About Our Guest: Matthew Knight is the Founder and Director of Precium, a buyer’s agency specialising in regional New South Wales, particularly the NSW South Coast. With over two decades of experience in property investment and market analysis, Matt combines data-driven insight with a practical understanding of local dynamics. A long-time resident of the South Coast himself, he has firsthand knowledge of the region’s unique challenges and opportunities. Matt is widely respected for his integrity, deep local expertise, and commitment to helping homebuyers, investors, and downsizers make informed, confident property decisions. Connect with Matthew Knight: LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattknightprect Instagram https://www.instagram.com/preciumproperty/ Website https://precium.com.au/ Resources:

Most Australians assume they’ll deal with retirement living and aged care when the time comes. The problem? By the time it does, the system has already made many of the decisions for you. In this episode, we unpack why delaying retirement and home care planning is one of the most expensive mistakes people make—not just financially, but emotionally and structurally.Veronica Morgan and Chris Bates are joined by Mitch Hiam, COO of Balance Financial Group, to explain how Australia’s aged care and home care systems really work—and why recent reforms are quietly changing the rules. They explore how “Support at Home,” means testing, maintenance costs, and wait times are pushing retirees into decisions earlier than expected, often under crisis conditions.The conversation challenges deeply held assumptions about staying in the family home, downsizing, retirement villages, and intergenerational living. Mitch breaks down when home care works, when it doesn’t, and why time—not money—is the real currency in preserving choice and independence later in life.This episode is essential listening for Gen X, older Millennials, investors, and anyone with ageing parents, offering a clear warning: if you don’t plan your retirement living early, the system will plan it for you.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to Retirement Living Decisions01:08 — Guest Introduction: Mitch Home from Balance Financial Group01:48 — Challenges Faced by Retired Homeowners04:05 — Importance of Early Planning for Home Care09:07 — Government Policy Changes and Their Impact16:00 — Financial Trade-offs and Family Dynamics24:21 — Granny Flat Agreements and Multigenerational Living26:31 — Inheritance and Financial Planning for Retirees29:52 — Planning for Future Care Needs30:29 — Making Better Property Decisions31:37 — Understanding Retirement Villages40:10 — Costs and Contracts in Retirement Villages52:26 — Final Thoughts and AdviceAbout the GuestMitch Hiam is the Chief Operating Officer of Balance Financial Group, a specialist advisory firm focused on retirement planning, aged care strategy, and later-life financial decision-making. His work sits at the intersection of pensions, home care funding, residential aged care, downsizing, retirement villages, and intergenerational arrangements.Mitch works closely with individuals and families navigating some of the most complex—and emotionally charged—decisions they will ever face. From proactive planning to crisis-driven aged care transitions, he brings frontline insight into how Australia’s systems actually operate, where people get caught out, and which decisions permanently limit future options.Known for his plain-spoken, practical approach, Mitch helps Australians understand the financial reality behind retirement living—so they can make informed decisions early, rather than forced ones later.Connect with MitchMitch’s LinkedIn Balance Retirement & Aged Care Specialists’ LinkedIn Balance Retirement & Aged Care Specialists’ WebsiteResourcesVisit our website:

Multi-generational living is becoming a more common response to the uncomfortable realities facing ageing parents and their adult children.With traditional aged-care pathways increasingly expensive, emotionally fraught, and often poorly understood, families are weighing up alternatives — staying at home, moving into residential care, or reshaping the family home through shared living arrangements and granny flats.In this episode, we look under the hood of multi-generational living to explore what’s actually involved. From legal ownership and estate outcomes to pension eligibility, Centrelink rules, and family dynamics, we unpack the decisions families are making — and the risks they often don’t see until they’re already committed.Our guest, Adriana Care, is Managing Partner at Coutts Legal and works at the coalface with families navigating these choices under pressure. She’s seeing a clear shift among the so-called sandwich generation toward property-based solutions for ageing parents — raising complex questions around money, fairness, control, and what can go wrong when good intentions meet poor planning.This episode isn’t about whether multi-generational living is right or wrong. It’s about understanding the legal, financial, and practical realities behind these decisions before they become permanent.Episode Highlights01:18 — Meet Adriana Care of Coutts Legal02:08 — Is Aged Care Failing Modern Families?03:47 — The Legal and Financial Risks Families Miss05:25 — Why Families Choose Multi-Generational Living15:31 — Retirement Living vs Staying at Home20:50 — How Retirement Village Contracts Really Work25:40 — What to Know Before Making a Family Move28:10 — Inside Retirement Village Agreements28:55 — Disclosure Documents Explained29:40 — Rules and Regulations That Catch Families Out30:52 — How Family Dynamics Shape Care Decisions32:21 — Financial Elder Abuse: Legal Warning Signs35:29 — Binding Financial Agreements Explained37:46 — Pensions, Gifting, and Centrelink Rules40:21 — Why Downsizing Isn’t Always the Answer44:02 — Granny Flat Arrangements: Legal Traps49:42 — A Real Case That Shows What Can Go WrongAbout the GuestAdriana Care is the Managing Partner at Coutts Legal, where she specialises in aged care and elder law. She works closely with families navigating some of the most complex and emotionally charged decisions around ageing, care, and family living arrangements.Adriana advises clients on the legal and financial realities of home care, residential aged care, granny flats, and multi-generational living, with particular expertise in Centrelink rules, pension eligibility, and intergenerational asset arrangements. Working at the coalface, she sees first-hand how well-intentioned plans can unravel without clear structures, proper advice, and early conversations — especially for the sandwich generation balancing parents, children, and property decisions at the same time.Connect with AdrianaLinkedInCoutts Lawyers (Instagram)ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you...

What if our homes did more than just provide shelter? What if they could actually contribute to the health of the planet and the people living within them? In this episode, we sit down with Caroline Pidcock, a visionary architect and champion of regenerative design, to explore why Australia’s current approach to housing is falling short—and how we can change it.Caroline shares her deep expertise on the "Circular Economy" and why we must transition from merely being "less bad" to being "positively good" for our environment. We dive into the hidden health risks of poorly designed homes, the reality of building for extreme weather, and why the "bigger is better" mindset in Australian property is a trap.What we explore in this conversation:Regenerative vs. Sustainable: Why doing "zero harm" isn't enough anymore.The Circular Economy: How to treat buildings as material banks for the future.Health and Architecture: The impact of light, air quality, and materials on your daily well-being.Building Standards: A look at why Australian regulations are trailing behind global leaders.Retrofitting for Resilience: Practical ways to improve existing homes for a changing climate.Whether you are a homeowner, an investor, or simply curious about the future of our cities, this conversation will challenge you to think differently about the spaces we inhabit. Hit play to learn how we can build a future that thrives!Episode Highlights00:00 — Welcome: Rethinking How We Build01:13 — Caroline Pidcock: Beyond Sustainability04:18 — Fixing the Flaws in Modern Design07:06 — Regenerative Design in Action17:17 — Policy Shifts for a Livable Future20:47 — Growth vs. the Environment23:23 — Hard Lessons from Failed Developments26:08 — How Our Cities are Evolving27:47 — The Reality of Melbourne’s Planning31:43 — Regional Living & Staying Connected33:08 — Leading the Charge for Urban Change35:49 — Simple Tools for Sustainable Living37:20 — The Hidden Hurdles of Rezoning40:54 — How Density Affects Our Communities48:23 — Final Thoughts: A Legacy for the FutureAbout the GuestCaroline Pidcock is a renowned Australian architect and advocate who has dedicated her career to sustainable and regenerative design. With decades of experience across residential and commercial projects, she is a past President of the Australian Institute of Architects (NSW Chapter) and the Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council (ASBEC).Caroline is a leading voice in the "Living Building Challenge" and is deeply committed to the principles of the circular economy. Her work focuses on creating spaces that are not only carbon-neutral but also enhance the biological and social systems they inhabit. Recognized for her leadership in climate action within the property industry, she continues to influence policy and practice to ensure a resilient and healthy built environment for future generations.Connect with CarolineCaroline Pidcock’s LinkedIn

Australia’s housing debate is crowded with loud opinions — but very little demographic reality.In this episode, we unpack what Australia’s population shifts are actually telling us about housing demand, cities, and economic pressure points, and why many of today’s dominant narratives fall apart when viewed through data.Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher joins Veronica and Chris to challenge the assumptions shaping housing policy, migration debates, and affordability discussions. From international students and skilled migration to household formation and labour shortages, Simon explains how population forces — not headlines — are driving long-term outcomes across property and the broader economy.The conversation explores why cutting migration won’t automatically ease housing stress, why median house prices are a misleading metric in a structurally unequal market, and why Australia’s system is quietly designed to support rising asset prices. Along the way, Simon reframes inflation, workforce shortages, and urban planning through a demographic lens that most investors and policymakers ignore.This episode is essential listening for anyone who wants to understand underlying demand, not just surface-level market movements. If you’re a property investor, owner, or decision-maker trying to make sense of housing, cities, and economic pressure in Australia, this conversation will sharpen how you think about the next decade.Episode Highlights00:00 – What Demographics Say About Housing Demand01:12 – Why Population Data Beats Property Headlines01:51 – The Migration Debate: Benefits and Misunderstandings02:47 – International Students: Cash Cows or Future Workforce?06:32 – Why Australia’s Skills Shortage Is Structural13:44 – The Fiscal Reality Behind High Migration Numbers17:36 – How Migration Policy Could Actually Be Fixed22:03 – Why Migration Isn’t the Real Cause of High Prices28:57 – The Integration Challenge for International Students31:25 – Why Australia’s Economic Model Still Works33:43 – Density, Sprawl, and the Real Cost of Bad Planning45:01 – AI Will Push Workers Back Into Offices48:34 – Why Demographics Point to Stickier Inflation50:04 – Why Median House Prices Are a Misleading Metric52:11 – The Big Demographic Blind Spots Investors MissAbout the GuestSimon Kuestenmacher is a demographer and co-founder of The Demographics Group, where he specialises in population change, migration, generational trends, and how these forces shape housing, infrastructure, and economic outcomes. His work is widely used by governments, planners, and businesses grappling with long-term structural change rather than short-term noise.Simon is a regular media commentator, a columnist for The Australian and The New Daily, and host of the Demographics Decoded podcast. He is also the author of several books on maps and data and runs one of the world’s largest social media platforms dedicated to demographic insights, reaching millions each month.Known for translating complex population data into practical insight, Simon brings clarity to some of Australia’s most emotionally charged debates — including housing affordability, migration policy, and the future of work.Connect with SimonThe Demographics Group (website)LinkedIna...

Property investing has rarely looked more seductive—or more dangerous. In this episode, Veronica and Chris unpack the growing gap between how property portfolios are being sold and how risk is quietly stacking up beneath the surface. As regulators tighten lending rules and banks pull back, the question isn’t whether the rules are changing—it’s whether investors are paying attention.The conversation dives deep into aggressive lending practices now under scrutiny: trust lending, SMSF borrowing, equity extraction, and the promise of “instant equity” through optimistic bank valuations. Veronica and Chris challenge the idea that buying multiple properties fast is a strategy, exposing how many portfolios are built on valuation certificates rather than fundamentals—and what happens when interest rates rise, rents soften, or lending conditions tighten.They also examine the uncomfortable incentives driving this behaviour: buyer’s agents rewarded for volume, brokers pushed to maximise borrowing capacity, and everyday Australians—often in their late 40s and 50s—being sold complex structures they don’t fully understand. From regional markets distorted by borderless buying to SMSFs loaded with illiquid property, the risks are not theoretical—they’re already unfolding.This episode is a warning shot. If your strategy relies on constant refinancing, rising valuations, or ever-looser lending, this conversation will force you to rethink it. Because when the cycle turns, the consequences won’t be shared evenly—and paper equity won’t save you.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to Property Investing Risks01:11 — Regulatory Crackdown on Risky Lending01:46 — The Role of Buyer's Agents and Brokers03:19 — Trust Lending and Self-Managed Super Funds12:19 — Instant Equity and Market Manipulation18:40 — The Pitfalls of Following Bad Advice24:28 — Questionable Advice from Buyer's Agents25:32 — Judging Awards and Industry Practices26:16 — Vulnerable Investors and Risky Promises27:13 — APRA's Role and Investor Lending Trends29:31 — Superannuation and Property Investments35:32 — Private Lending and Market Risks42:53 — Cross Collateralization and Loan Structuring48:54 — Conclusion and Final WarningsAbout the HostChris Bates is a mortgage broker and co-founder of Alcove, working with clients across Australia to help them navigate complex property and lending decisions. Known for his data-driven approach, Chris specialises in long-term strategy, lending structures, and helping buyers avoid costly financial mistakes.Veronica Morgan is a buyer’s agent and property strategist with nearly two decades of experience advising owner-occupiers and investors. With a background in research, data analysis, and on-the-ground buying, Veronica is widely respected for cutting through market noise and focusing on fundamentals, risk, and long-term outcomes.Together, they bring a practical, evidence-based lens to Australia’s property market — challenging assumptions and unpacking what actually matters.ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers

Australian property prices are often treated as a national scoreboard—up means success, down means failure.But what if that assumption is wrong? In this episode, we interrogate one of the most polarising ideas in housing today: that Australia’s obsession with ever-rising property prices is doing more harm than good.Joining Veronica and Chris is Adam Schwab, founder of Luxury Escapes and a sharp, outspoken commentator on economics, inflation, and corporate behaviour. Coming from outside the property industry, Adam brings a contrarian lens to housing—questioning whether property has become an unproductive asset, how easy credit and government incentives have distorted prices, and why policies like 5% deposit schemes may be helping vendors more than buyers.The conversation digs deep into rental yields versus capital growth, the role of the RBA in inflating asset prices, and why high house prices don’t actually benefit most owner-occupiers. Adam challenges the idea that owning property equals success, arguing that Australia’s fixation on housing is crowding out productive investment, innovation, and long-term economic resilience.This is a robust, sometimes uncomfortable discussion about incentives, risk, and who really wins when property prices keep climbing. If you care about affordability, fairness, and the future of Australia’s economy — not just short-term price movements—this episode will force you to rethink what “good” housing policy actually looks like.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to the Episode and Guest00:56 — Adam Schwab's Contrarian Views on Property01:37 — Debating Property Prices and Investment02:49 — Renting vs. Buying: A Financial Analysis05:43 — The Impact of High Property Prices on Society19:02 — Monetary Policy and Housing Market26:50 — Reverse Mortgages and Their Implications27:32 — The 40-50 Year Loan Debate28:31 — Government Policies and Housing Market29:09 — Economic Logic vs. Political Motives29:33 — Risks of New Property Incentives31:22 — Banking System and Housing Bubble33:41 — Immigration and Housing Affordability35:28 — Leveraging and Property Investment42:20 — Comparing Property to Other Investments47:53 — Global Talent and Property Prices49:51 — Concluding Thoughts on Property MarketAbout the GuestAdam Schwab is the co-founder of Luxury Escapes, one of Australia’s most successful global travel businesses, which he helped scale into a billion-dollar brand. Beyond entrepreneurship, Adam has built a parallel career as a respected financial journalist and commentator, known for his sharp critiques of corporate behaviour, economic policy, and market incentives.He is also the co-host of The Contrarians podcast, where he regularly challenges mainstream narratives on markets, inflation, and government intervention. Unafraid to question sacred cows — including Australian property — Adam brings an outsider’s perspective grounded in economic fundamentals rather than industry orthodoxy.In this episode, Adam applies that contrarian mindset to housing, offering candid insights into why Australia’s property system rewards asset inflation over productivity, how easy credit fuels bubbles, and why policy settings may be entrenching inequality rather than solving it.Connect with AdamAdam’s LinkedIn

As 2025 comes to a close, property headlines are once again filling with bold predictions about what 2026 will bring. But rather than playing the forecasting game, this episode takes a more grounded approach — examining the forces already in motion and how they’re likely to shape buyer, seller, and investor behaviour in the year ahead.Chris Bates and Veronica Morgan unpack what’s really driving the market right now: persistently high interest rates, fast-rising lower-quartile prices, tight rental conditions, weak construction pipelines, and a supply side that simply isn’t recovering. They explore why listings remain constrained, how first home buyer incentives and investor lending are colliding in the same price brackets, and why borrowing capacity — not confidence — is doing most of the heavy lifting.The conversation also digs into buyer fatigue versus genuine market softening, the growing influence of global uncertainty on local decision-making, and why some cities and sub-markets may actually accelerate rather than cool. Along the way, they challenge the idea that 2026 will somehow be “easier,” especially for buyers waiting for perfect clarity before acting.If you’re considering buying, selling, upgrading, or investing in the next 12–24 months, this episode offers a clear-eyed framework for thinking strategically — without hype, predictions, or false reassurance.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction: Current State of the Property Market01:04 – Factors Shaping the Market in 202601:48 – Interest Rates and Market Predictions03:59 – Regional Market Variations05:58 – Investor and First Home Buyer Dynamics16:59 – Impact of Development and Zoning Changes22:54 – Work from Home and Regional Market Trends25:15 – Helping You Make Better Property Decisions26:07 – Introduction to Property Moves and Finance26:22 – Regional Markets Post-COVID27:14 – Current Market Sentiment and Interest Rates28:52 – Generational Wealth and Property Ownership32:00 – Bank Lending and Credit Growth36:51 – Auction vs. Private Treaty Markets43:00 – Renovation Trends and Challenges45:35 – Long-Term Property Investment Strategies49:48 – Conclusion and Future EpisodesAbout the HostsChris Bates is a mortgage broker and co-founder of Alcove, working with clients across Australia to help them navigate complex property and lending decisions. Known for his data-driven approach, Chris specialises in long-term strategy, lending structures, and helping buyers avoid costly financial mistakes.Veronica Morgan is a buyer’s agent and property strategist with nearly two decades of experience advising owner-occupiers and investors. With a background in research, data analysis, and on-the-ground buying, Veronica is widely respected for cutting through market noise and focusing on fundamentals, risk, and long-term outcomes.Together, they bring a practical, evidence-based lens to Australia’s property market — challenging assumptions and unpacking what actually matters.ResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au

In this episode, we pull back the curtain on one of the least transparent parts of Australia’s property market: sales campaign behaviour. From hidden campaign histories to shifting price guides and agent tactics designed to manufacture buyer momentum, most buyers are making six- and seven-figure decisions without the information they actually need. Today’s conversation digs into that gap — and the consequences of it.We’re joined by Henry Pedersen, co-founder and CEO of Homer, a proptech tool built to expose the data buyers never get to see. Henry walks us through what really happens behind the scenes of a sales campaign: failed auctions, withdrawn listings, guide price movements, and the patterns in agent strategy that can completely alter a buyer’s perception of value. We talk about why big data alone isn’t enough, how algorithms misread hyper-specific property nuances, and why more information doesn’t automatically mean better decisions.We also dive into the thornier realities: the structural incentives pushing agents toward underquoting, why buyers keep falling into the same traps, how state regulators are tightening their approach, and what transparency could actually look like if buyers had access to honest, unfiltered campaign histories. Henry also shares how buyer behaviour — from switching suburbs to chasing “hot” listings — is often influenced by information that’s incomplete or deliberately curated.Whether you're navigating the market for the first time, returning after a break, or advising clients professionally, this episode gives you tools to understand the battlefield. We help you recognise the signals buried inside campaign data, avoid being blindsided by agent strategy, and get clearer about where your expectations sit in the real market — not the one portrayed online. This is a must-listen for anyone tired of feeling outplayed.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction to the Hidden World of Property Market01:28 — Meet Henry Pedersen: Co-founder and CEO of Homer02:05 — The Birth of Homer: A Personal Journey02:50 — How Homer Provides Transparency in Property Data04:11 — Challenges and Insights in Property Data05:13 — The Role of Historical Data in Property Decisions06:39 — Navigating the Property Market with Homer's Tools12:23 — User Experience and Adoption of Homer14:06 — Future Developments and Features of Homer20:07 — Queensland's Unique Real Estate Law22:03 — Challenges of Property Valuation23:27 — Agent Behavior and Market Strategies25:04 — Leveraging Data for Better Decisions33:44 — AI in Real Estate35:38 — Property Dumbo Stories38:14 — Conclusion and Final ThoughtsAbout the GuestHenry Pedersen is the Co-Founder and CEO of Homer, a fast-growing proptech platform built to give Australian buyers real visibility into sales campaigns — including the data traditionally kept out of sight. With a background in data, growth strategy, and scaling marketplace businesses globally, Henry brings an outside-the-industry lens to one of real estate’s most persistent problems: information asymmetry.Prior to joining Homer, Henry worked in international markets building large-scale automotive data platforms, helping bring structure and transparency to vehicle marketplaces across Australia and the UK. His personal experience navigating Sydney’s overheated 2021 market led him to confront the frustrations buyers face: shifting price guides, opaque campaign histories, and the sheer workload required to track property activity manually.At Homer, Henry focuses on surfacing patterns in agent behaviour, guide-to-sale accuracy, campaign timelines, and other hidden indicators that shape buyer outcomes. His mission is simple: equip everyday Australians with the information professionals use —...

Australia’s housing market is creaking under pressure — record-low affordability, rising lower-end prices, and policies that keep boosting demand instead of easing it. In this episode, Cotality’s Head of Research Eliza Owen helps us zoom out and make sense of the contradictions shaping today’s market.We unpack why “years to save a 20% deposit” is the wrong metric, why income — not deposits — is the real barrier, and how the 5% deposit scheme pushes prices up by funnelling demand under strict caps. Eliza also breaks down the mismatch between the homes we build and how Australians actually live, alongside the collapse in turnover rates that concentrates buying power among wealthier households.If you want a clear, data-led look at what’s really driving the crisis — and why prices keep rising even as affordability falls apart — this conversation cuts through the noise.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction and Overview of Australia's Housing Market02:18 — Government Incentives and Their Impact04:17 — Challenges in Housing Affordability10:16 — Policy Measures and Their Effects12:18 — Affordability and Market Trends17:55 — Turnover Rates and Market Stability22:20 — The Case for Replacing Stamp Duty with Land Tax25:28 — Mismatch in Housing Supply and Demand28:19 — Challenges in the Rental Market31:38 — Eliza's Departure and Reflections34:42 — Global Perspectives on Housing Markets38:51 — Affordability Metrics and Policy42:33 — Underquoting and Auction Dynamics43:36 — Conclusion and Listener EngagementAbout the GuestEliza Owen is the Head of Research at Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), where she leads national market intelligence and economic analysis across Australia’s property sector. Appointed in 2020, she brings more than a decade of expertise in affordability metrics, credit conditions, lending environments, and the economic pressures shaping housing performance.Eliza has guided industry leaders through some of the most pivotal moments in recent history — from the volatility of COVID-era markets to the rapid rate-hike cycle and today’s affordability crisis. Her work helps governments, banks, and real estate professionals understand the shifting forces impacting buyers, sellers, and renters, using rigorous data to illuminate what’s really happening beneath the headlines.A sought-after keynote speaker and trusted media commentator, she has presented to thousands across real estate, construction, banking, and finance, translating complex economics into clear, practical insights. Passionate about demystifying housing data, Eliza is recognised for storytelling that cuts through complexity and empowers Australians to make smarter, evidence-based decisions in an increasingly strained housing landscape.Connect with ElizaEliza’s LinkedInCotality Australia’s LinkedInCotality Australia’s WebsiteCotality Australia’s Facebook PageCotality Australia’s InstagramResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - a...

2026 is shaping up as a year of subtle indicators and big risks, and Louis Christopher breaks down the data points seasoned investors should be paying attention to right now.In this episode, Louis joins Veronica and Chris just days after releasing the 2026 edition to unpack the findings that matter most: population growth moderating sharply, supply finally catching up in pockets, and why rental pressure may ease before prices do. And, critically, he reveals the assumptions his modelling rests on — and the risks that could topple them.Louis walks us through the four core scenarios underpinning his 2026 outlook, including the one that unexpectedly took the lead in 2025, and the one he now believes may need a late addendum as sticky inflation raises the odds of a surprise rate hike. From unemployment edging toward 5%, to small business stress, to shifts in interstate migration, Louis explains how these macro levers shape the micro realities buyers and investors experience on the ground.We also zoom into the markets that defied expectations in 2025 — including Darwin’s explosive rebound and the Gold Coast’s continued growth despite being fundamentally overvalued. Louis breaks down why listings data is flashing one message, why developers are building for the wrong demographic, and where supply bottlenecks could turn into oversupply shocks by 2027. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide remain the nation’s top performers, but Louis outlines exactly what conditions would need to change for any of them to lose steam.This conversation is packed with uncomfortable truths, grounded forecasts, and the kind of nuance you only get from someone who has studied the data for over two decades. Whether you’re trying to time a purchase, expand a portfolio, or simply understand where the market is heading next, Louis’ insights offer the clarity — and the caution — needed to navigate 2026 with your eyes open.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction to the 2026 Housing Market Outlook01:11 – Louis Christopher's Forecasting Approach02:18 – Reviewing the 2025 Predictions05:38 – Key Assumptions for 202607:53 – Interest Rate Scenarios for 202610:52 – Gold Coast Market Analysis15:14 – Darwin Market Insights18:56 – Structural Changes in Listings21:58 – Impact of High Transaction Costs on Listings23:12 – Market Dynamics in Different Cities25:10 – Investor Behavior and Market Trends26:42 – Rental Yields and Property Taxes28:49 – Interstate Investment Trends32:27 – Adelaide's Surprising Economic Resilience34:19 – Construction Costs and Housing Prices37:07 – Key Indicators for 2026 Market PredictionsAbout the GuestLouis Christopher is one of Australia’s most respected and closely watched housing market analysts. As the founder of SQM Research, he has spent nearly two decades building some of the country’s most trusted property indexes, data series, and market forecasts. Before establishing SQM in 2006, Louis served as Head of Research and General Manager at Australian Property Monitors, where his work informed Reserve Bank analysis and shaped national housing insights.With a background spanning technical market analysis, index construction, and independent forecasting, Louis has earned a reputation for calling turning points early — and for openly grading his own predictions each year. His annual Boom & Bust Report is widely regarded as one of Australia’s most transparent property forecasts, dissecting the interplay between population trends, supply pipelines, interest rates, and economic conditions.Louis is known for his no-nonsense approach, his statistical discipline, and his ability to explain complex market dynamics with clarity and precision. For investors, buyers and industry practitioners, his work offers a rare blend of independence,...

In this Q&A episode, Veronica and Chris unpack the real property questions investors are facing right now. From ATO debt rules to cashflow pressure and portfolio structure, this episode gets straight to the point and cuts through the myths.They break down a $5.3M portfolio spread across Logan, Townsville, Shepparton, regional WA and Melbourne’s fringe, revealing why “affordable” properties often deliver slow long-term growth — and when selling is actually the smarter move.The conversation also dives into rising insurance costs in flood-prone markets, including Gold Coast premiums hitting up to $20K a year. Veronica explains how underinsurance, flood overlays and lender behaviour could reshape future buyer demand.Finally, Chris explores whether AI-driven job losses could weaken the property market, or simply concentrate demand into fewer suburbs. If you want clearer strategy and better decision-making, this Q&A delivers the insights investors need now.Episode Highlights00:00 — Introduction and Listener Questions Overview00:25 — James' Question on Refinancing Loans05:43 — Michael's Property Portfolio Deconstruction18:14 — Nick's Question on Flood Insurance and Property Desirability20:36 — Insurance Challenges and Borrowing Concerns22:42 — Gold Coast Property Insights26:42 — AI's Impact on White Collar Jobs and Property Market27:59 — Future of Property Market Amid AI Revolution37:14 — Investment Strategies in a Changing Market41:50 — AI in Property Decision MakingLinksEpisode 374: How Will Climate Risk Impact Your Property’s Future Value?About the GuestMark Errichiello is a licensed buyers and vendors advocate and the Co-Founder & Director of Master Advocates, a Melbourne-based property advisory firm known for its strategic, data-driven approach to acquisitions, valuations, and auction representation. With decades of hands-on experience, Mark has attended every Block auction since the early seasons and understands the dynamics of high-pressure televised auctions better than most.Mark has represented bidders in both metropolitan and regional markets — including acting as an anonymous strategic bidder during the Phillip Island Block season — giving him unique insight into how buyer psychology, auction order, and market fundamentals shape outcomes. His commentary cuts through hype and focuses on realistic pricing, fair value, and the long-term risks buyers often overlook.Respected for his measured, forensic approach, Mark brings clarity to situations where emotion, spectacle, and production expectations collide with real market behaviour. His expertise helps buyers navigate fast-moving environments and make confident, well-informed decisions.Connect with GuestMark LinkedInMaster Advocate FacebookMaster Advocate InstagramMaster Advocate YouTubeResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast -...

The Block 2025 auctions were billed as a massive TV spectacle — but what unfolded in Daylesford turned out to be one of the most revealing auction finales the show has aired in years. Five nearly identical, fully furnished homes were pushed to market on a single afternoon, each carrying price expectations the local market was never built to support. What followed was a rare moment where real buyer behaviour overpowered reality-TV momentum.To break down what really went on, we’re joined by buyers and vendors advocate Mark Errichiello, who attended the auctions, tracked buyer behaviour, and has followed The Block’s auction patterns for years. Mark explains how quoting in the low $3 millions set unrealistic expectations from day one, how the quality of the build couldn’t compensate for a non-premium location, and why bidder confidence evaporated the moment prices edged toward $3 million.We unpack the psychological chain reaction inside the room — how the stalled results of House 2 changed the energy for every house that followed, how auction order heavily influenced who bid and when, and why mid-auction reserve changes shattered trust and halted momentum entirely. Mark also highlights overlooked costs buyers faced this year: stamp duty on cars and furnishings, rising Victorian land tax, and the long-term financial drag of prestige builds in regional markets.This episode strips back the theatre and exposes the real mechanics at play — from buyer sentiment to pricing strategy to the risks of flipping homes far from their emotional sweet spot. If you want the unfiltered version of what The Block 2025 really showed us about Australia’s property market, this conversation is a must-listen.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction to the Block Auctions01:18 – Meet the Expert: Mark Errichiello01:52 – Auction Day Insights and Challenges02:52 – Market Realities and Auction Strategies04:33 – The Block's Unique Auction Dynamics05:43 – Behind the Scenes: Vendor and Agent Dynamics09:02 – The Realities of Property Flipping11:10 – Investment Considerations and Risks12:28 – Decoy Bidding Strategy13:38 – Market Sentiment and Future Trends14:54 – Final Thoughts on the Block Auctions19:59 – Pricing a Property with Furniture22:31 – Victoria's Land Tax Changes and Market Impact24:11 – Strategic Moves and Missteps in Property Auctions27:24 – Renovation Strategies for The Block34:34 – Melbourne Market Insights38:40 – A Memorable Client Story40:39 – Conclusion and Final ThoughtsLinksArticle: Behind the Hammer Inside The Block 2025 Daylesford AuctionsAbout the GuestMark Errichiello is a licensed buyers and vendors advocate and the Co-Founder & Director of Master Advocates, a Melbourne-based property advisory firm known for its strategic, data-driven approach to acquisitions, valuations, and auction representation. With decades of hands-on experience, Mark has attended every Block auction since the early seasons and understands the dynamics of high-pressure televised auctions better than most.Mark has represented bidders in both metropolitan and regional markets — including acting as an anonymous strategic bidder during the Phillip Island Block season — giving him unique insight into how buyer psychology, auction order, and market fundamentals shape outcomes. His commentary cuts through hype and focuses on realistic pricing, fair value, and the long-term risks buyers often overlook.Respected for his measured, forensic approach, Mark brings clarity to situations where emotion, spectacle, and production expectations...

Everyone’s talking about AI as the future of property, but what if it’s quietly distorting how we see value?Veronica and Chris sit down with Luke Metcalfe, founder of Microburbs and DataScape, to reveal why precision in property data is often just an illusion. Luke, one of Australia’s leading data scientists, reveals why many AI-driven tools sound convincing but are often wrong — and how they can even manipulate our confidence in property decisions.From understanding what AI models are actually trained to do, to exploring why machine learning can’t yet capture local nuance or human psychology, this episode challenges the blind faith many investors place in “data-driven” insights.Luke explains the difference between language-based AI and number-based forecasting models, the dangers of herd thinking in machine learning, and how misinformation spreads faster when machines start selling the dream.If you’ve ever wondered whether AI could replace your buyer's agent — or if you’ve trusted a chatbot to tell you where to buy next — this is your wake-up call. Tune in to learn how to question the data, test the claims, and keep human intuition at the heart of smart investing.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction: The Illusion of Precision in Property Data00:27 – Guest Introduction: Luke Metcalfe01:50 – AI's Role in Property Decisions03:09 – Challenges and Limitations of AI in Real Estate05:16 – The Psychology of AI and Property Investment07:41 – AI's Persuasive Power and Ethical Concerns12:26 – Future of AI in Property Forecasting26:37 – Granularity and Local Knowledge in Property Data30:01 – The Importance of Human Experience in Property Evaluation37:18 – The Impact of Crime on Property Markets39:36 – Melbourne's Property Market Sentiment41:40 – The Role of Data in Real Estate47:36 – Future Trends and Technological ImpactsAbout the GuestLuke Metcalfe is an Australian entrepreneur and data scientist known for pioneering the use of large-scale analytics in understanding neighbourhood performance and property trends.After launching NationMaster, a global data platform attracting over 10 million monthly visitors, Luke founded Microburbs, a liveability and housing data company providing hyperlocal insights that help buyers, investors, and agents make informed decisions. He now leads DataScape, exploring the intersection of AI, big data, and human behaviour in real estate.Renowned for his first-principles approach and his ability to translate complex data into clear, actionable insights, Luke continues to shape how Australians understand location intelligence and property forecasting in an increasingly AI-driven world.Connect with LukeLuke’s LinkedInLuke’s EmailMicroburbs WebsiteMicroburbs LinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent?

Property investment has entered dangerous new territory. What used to be about building long-term wealth has become clouded by hype, shortcuts, and unqualified advice. Investors are being drawn into speculative schemes disguised as strategy. In this episode, Veronica and Chris sit down with Ben Kingsley, Founding Managing Director of Empower Wealth and Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA), to unpack the alarming resurgence of speculative, misleading, and unlicensed property advice spreading across Australia.Ben recently authored an open letter to industry associations, warning of “get-rich-quick” operators, social media influencers, and unqualified advisors encouraging investors to buy properties through risky trust structures and self-managed super funds. He reveals how these practices are distorting regional markets, luring naive investors, and potentially triggering a regulatory backlash that could reshape the entire property sector.From “pump and dump” tactics to trust lending loopholes and the rise of volume-driven buyer’s agents buying sight unseen, this conversation exposes the systemic risks emerging from the unregulated fringes of the industry. Ben, Veronica, and Chris also explore how social media hype, FOMO marketing, and easy credit are fueling another wave of short-term speculation that could end in disaster.If you care about the future of Australia’s property market—or just want to protect yourself from being swept up in the next boom-and-bust cycle—this is an episode you can’t afford to miss.Episode Highlights00:00 — Why Risky Property Advice Is Back on the Rise01:36 — Speculative Behaviour: The Return of Fast-Money Mindsets02:25 — How Speculation Threatens Consumers and Market Stability03:59 — Unlicensed Advisors and the Power of Social Media Influence06:14 — Regional Market Distortions: When Buyer’s Agents Go Rogue08:21 — Will ASIC Step In? The Push for Property Regulation10:16 — The Role (and Responsibility) of Brokers and Buyer’s Agents13:01 — What Happens Next: Ben’s Call for Industry Reform32:06 — Rising Prices, Rising Pressure: The Human Cost of Property33:51 — Regional Boom or Bubble? Understanding the Market Risks36:41 — Property Prices vs. Fundamentals: When Growth Defies Logic39:47 — Speculation vs. Strategy: The Long-Term Investment Divide42:14 — Economic Viability: The Missing Piece in Modern Investing49:00 — Building a Sustainable Property Business, Not a Hype Machine52:41 — Owning Mistakes and the Power of Industry Accountability54:26 — Final Thoughts: Restoring Trust in Property AdviceLinksArticle: https://pica.asn.au/alarm-unlicensed-advice-market/ About the GuestBen Kingsley is the Founding and Managing Director of Empower Wealth and the inaugural Chair of the Property Investors Council of Australia (PICA). A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA) and one of Australia’s most respected voices in property, finance, and money management, Ben has spent over two decades advocating for professional standards and consumer protection in the property investment sector.A multi-award-winning advisor and frequent media commentator, Ben co-authored two bestselling books — The Armchair Guide to Property Investing and Make Money Simple Again — and co-hosts The Property Couch, Australia’s #1 property, finance, and money management podcast. Through Empower Wealth, Ben leads an integrated team of experts providing holistic financial advice across property, finance, tax, and wealth management.Driven by his belief that...

There’s a side of the property market most Australians never see — where listings don’t make headlines, and deals happen behind closed doors.In this episode, we step into that world of discretion and discovery with William Laing, Co-Founder and CEO of Quiet List, to explore how off-market sales are quietly reshaping the real estate landscape.With nearly one in five Sydney homes now trading off-market, William reveals how private listings are redefining demand and changing how agents, buyers, and sellers connect. From price-testing vendors and privacy-driven sellers to the rise of buyer’s agents and agent-only platforms, this hidden layer of the market is rewriting the rules of access and advantage.Together, we unpack what truly counts as an off-market listing, why so many sellers are choosing to go quiet, and what this shift means for transparency in Australian property. It’s a conversation that cuts through the hype to reveal the data, dynamics, and ethics shaping the industry’s most exclusive corner.If you’ve ever wondered what happens before a listing goes live, or why some of the best opportunities never make it online, this episode gives you a rare glimpse into the quiet art of deal-making in today’s property market.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction01:16 – Guest Introduction: William Lang of Quiet List01:48 – Understanding Off-Market Listings03:40 – Challenges in Off-Market Transactions08:27 – Quiet List: The Business Model08:40 – Appreciating the Role of Buyer's Agents18:03 – Privacy and Transparency Issues of Off-Market Deals26:18 – Real Estate Platforms28:05 – Challenges and Changes in Agent Processes28:45 – Advantages of Centralized Briefs31:03 – Off-Market Deals and Relationships32:23 – Platform Features and Future Directions41:53 – Real Estate Market Dynamics and AI42:33 – Property DumboAbout the GuestWilliam Laing is the Co-Founder and CEO of Quiet List, Australia’s first agent-only property platform transforming how real estate professionals connect qualified demand with quiet supply.With more than a decade in luxury residential real estate — including roles with Kay & Burton, Knight Frank, Savills, and The Agency — William built his career around discretion, trust, and deal-making. His experience handling high-end, off-market transactions inspired Quiet List: a platform that helps agents capture the 20% of property deals that happen behind closed doors.Today, William is helping agents nationwide turn “quiet listings” into smarter, more transparent transactions — bringing structure, security, and speed to a part of the market that’s always operated in whispers.Connect with WilliamLinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.auLooking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.auLooking for a Mortgage Broker? alcove.com.auWork with

Australia’s strata system was once a clever solution to urban living — a way to share land, lift homeownership, and build communities in growing cities. But decades later, that same framework is struggling to keep up with modern life.What once worked for small, low-rise communities now governs the high-density towers that house millions of Australians. The result? Costs have climbed, decision-making has grown more complex, and owners often find themselves footing bills for problems they didn’t createIn this episode, Prof. Cathy Sherry — Professor at Macquarie Law School and Executive Member of Smart Green Cities — explains how Australia’s outdated strata laws are now out of step with the country’s housing and sustainability goals. A leading international expert in land law and high-density development, Prof. Sherry unpacks how laws written in the 1960s for small walk-ups can’t handle the complexity of modern cities, locking owners into costly contracts, rising levies, and embedded energy networks that limit both choice and progress.From the hidden costs buried in off-the-plan sales to the barriers stopping apartments from going solar, Cathy reveals how a system designed to help Australians share space has instead made it harder to live well, live green, and live fairly.Listen now to learn why reforming strata isn’t just a legal fix — it’s key to building a fairer, more sustainable housing future for everyone.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction01:16 — Meet Prof. Cathy Sherry: Australia’s Leading Expert on Strata Law01:50 — How Shared Living Became Complex: The Challenge of Strata Ownership03:15 — Strata Levies, Legal Layers, and Why Collective Ownership Is Tricky06:37 — The Hidden Dangers of Buying Off-the-Plan Apartments in Australia11:09 — Embedded Networks Explained: The Hidden Costs of Strata Energy Deals20:18 — Can the Law Catch Up? Why Strata Reform Is Urgent for Modern Cities26:00 — Stratum Lots and Mixed-Use Buildings: Understanding Shared Land Titles26:48 — What Strata Management Statements Mean for Building Governance27:32 — Why Prof. Cathy Sherry Advocates for Fairer and Smarter Housing Laws28:54 — High-Density Housing Challenges: When Bigger Doesn’t Mean Better30:11 — Why Home Ownership Still Matters for Stability and Social Equality31:51 — Where Strata Schemes Fail: Issues With Governance and Accountability35:23 — How Investor Incentives Have Shaped Australia’s Housing Market43:27 — Smart Green Cities: Connecting Strata Reform to Sustainability Goals44:42 — Property Dumbo: A Real-World Example of Strata Mismanagement46:20 — Final Reflections and Where to Learn More From Prof. Cathy SherryLinksArticle: Embedded networks in high-density and master-planned housingAbout the GuestCathy Sherry is a Professor in Macquarie Law School and Executive Member of Smart Green Cities. She is a leading international expert in land law, with a particular focus on high density development. Her book Strata Title Property Rights: Private governance of multi-owned properties (Routledge, 2017) is the first academic monograph on Australian strata title. It has been cited by the Privy Council and the New South Wales Court of Appeal. Professor Sherry's research focuses on the complex legal, economic and social relationships created by collectively owned land. Professor Sherry regularly advises governments, domestically and internationally, on the laws governing multi-owned properties. She was a member of the United Kingdom Law Commission Technical Committee for the...

Australia’s housing shortage isn’t just about planning approvals or red tape — it’s about money. In this episode, commercial finance expert Jean-Pierre Gortan, Joint Founder of Simplicity Loans & Advisory, joins Veronica Morgan and Chris Bates to unpack the financial bottlenecks preventing new homes from being built, even in areas crying out for supply.Jean-Pierre draws on more than two decades of experience structuring complex, multi-lender deals to explain why so many developments are stuck in limbo. From Parramatta to Penrith, he reveals how post-COVID construction cost blowouts, tighter lending standards, and broken feasibility models have made many projects impossible to fund — even with demand at record highs.They discuss how non-bank lenders are filling the void left by traditional banks, why build-to-rent projects still struggle to stack up in high-cost cities like Sydney, and what state governments are doing through rezoning, TOD corridors, and density incentives to unlock supply. Jean-Pierre also shares insights into how the market differs between NSW, Victoria, and Queensland, and what policy shifts could finally make housing delivery viable again.This is a candid, ground-level look at the economics of housing supply — and a reminder that Australia’s housing crisis won’t be solved by planning reforms alone, but by rethinking how development is financed.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction02:12 — How COVID Cost Blowouts Crushed Feasibility03:51 — When Projects Don’t Stack Up Financially05:22 — Why Government Fixes Aren’t Solving Supply15:38 — Non-Bank Lenders: Who’s Funding Projects Now18:02 — Developers Adapting to a Tougher Market21:32 — How Finance Shapes Future Housing Supply25:53 — Residential vs Commercial: Shared Challenges26:27 — Why Banks Pulled Back from Construction Loans28:18 — Can Government Programs Reignite Building?29:48 — Pre-Sales Pressure: A Hidden Project Killer31:10 — Quality, Oversight, and Building Regulation Costs32:39 — Red Tape and Rezoning: The Slow Path to Supply36:40 –  Transport Oriented Development (TOD) and LMR Zones43:08 — Property Dumbo: Overconfidence in Feasibility44:45 — Final Thoughts: Funding and the Road AheadLinksJean-Pierre Gortan (website bio)LMR ViewerAbout the GuestJean-Pierre Gortan is the Joint Founder of Simplicity Loans & Advisory and one of Australia’s most respected figures in commercial finance. A back-to-back winner of the Australian Broker of the Year Award by MPA Magazine, Jean-Pierre has built a national reputation for solving some of the country’s most complex funding challenges with creativity, precision, and integrity.With more than two decades of experience across property, business, and development finance, he has been instrumental in steering Simplicity’s growth into one of Australia’s leading independent advisory firms. His expertise lies in structuring sophisticated, multi-lender transactions — from nine-figure refinances to bespoke development facilities — all with a focus on delivering exceptional client outcomes.Beyond finance, Jean-Pierre is a passionate advocate for community causes, having raised hundreds of thousands of dollars through initiatives such as the Larapinta Stage Race, the CEO Sleepout, and his ongoing support for the Women’s Resilience Centre. A...

Property decisions today hinge on interest rates, inflation, and housing demand — but what if the traditional signals we’ve all relied on no longer give the full picture?In this episode, we sit down with Alan Oster, former Chief Economist of NAB and one of Australia’s most respected economic voices, to unpack what really matters in a housing market under stress.Alan explains why GDP, unemployment, and even consumer surveys can mislead investors, and why real-time banking data has changed the game. He shares stories from decades of forecasting — including times when the “headline” numbers pointed in the wrong direction — and highlights the three signals he believes are most useful for understanding where housing is headed.From the rental crisis to the impact of migration and state government land taxes, Alan dives into the structural pressures reshaping demand. He also addresses productivity stagnation, the future role of AI in jobs and housing, and why policy missteps continue to ripple through Australia’s economy.Whether you’re a property investor, policymaker, or simply trying to understand what’s next for interest rates and housing demand, Alan offers candid insights you won’t hear in the headlines. This episode is a rare chance to learn from the economist who has shaped Australia’s forecasting for over three decades.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction00:22 – Meet Alan Oster: NAB’s Former Chief Economist02:01 – Global Headwinds: US Politics, Tariffs & Trade03:01 – Economics as Psychology: Market Reactions Explained04:11 – Real-Time Banking Data Changes Forecasting05:12 – COVID Lessons: Spending Falls by Postcode06:30 – Hidden Stress: Households, Jobs & Policy Gaps13:49 – Australia’s Productivity Problem Unpacked15:35 – AI, Migration & the Future of Work23:36 – Property Choices: Wealth, Debt & Investor Behaviour26:10 – Land Taxes and Why Investors Are Selling27:05 – Migration, Housing Supply & the Rental Crunch28:22 – State Outlooks: Victoria, Adelaide, NSW & QLD29:05 – How Banks View Mortgages & Housing Risk31:45 – Productivity Growth Slows in Australia33:55 – Policy Fixes: Tax Reform & Build-to-Rent36:04 – Housing Market Costs, Supply & Gov’t Guarantees37:34 – Lessons from Past Crises & Recessions44:04 – Property Dumbo: Alan’s Downsizing StoryAbout the GuestAlan Oster is one of Australia’s most trusted economic forecasters, best known for his 33 years as Chief Economist at NAB. During his tenure, he built NAB’s influential Monthly Business Survey and pioneered the use of real-time banking data to track household and business behaviour — insights now shared with the RBA, ABS, and Treasury.Before joining NAB in 1992, Alan spent 15 years at Commonwealth Treasury, including four years in Paris as Australia’s representative at the OECD. Recognised as an authority on economic forecasting, monetary policy, and housing demand, he is a sought-after commentator in both public and private circles.Alan retired from NAB in 2025 but continues to share his expertise, offering a rare blend of sharp economic analysis and practical insights for policymakers, businesses, and property investors alike.Connect with AlanLinkedInResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at:The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - a...

What’s really driving property investors in 2025? The latest PIPA Investor Sentiment Survey lays it bare — and the results matter for every investor, renter, and policymaker in Australia.In this episode, we’re joined by Lachlan Vidler, Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA), to unpack the top findings. The survey shows investors are selling under pressure—with debt reduction, compliance costs, and land tax topping the list of reasons. But here’s the kicker: when those properties are sold, only 42% stay in the rental pool, shrinking rental supply and pushing rents higher.Policy risk looms large too. More than half of investors said they’d exit if negative gearing was altered, while others flagged land tax, compliance, and rental caps as breaking points. Yet in the same breath, nearly 60% of investors still believe it’s a good time to buy. That fragile optimism is keeping the market alive even as costs bite.Finally, the survey reveals who investors actually turn to for advice—mostly mortgage brokers and accountants, not property specialists. Why does that matter? Because it explains why investor behaviour often swings between optimism and panic, shaping rental markets and property prices in ways that affect us all.This episode is packed with insights every property investor needs to hear—because the decisions you and your peers make today are reshaping Australia’s housing market for tomorrow.Episode Highlights00:00 – Introduction02:04 – Why the Rental Market Is Being Reshaped03:11 – Top Reasons Investors Are Selling Properties04:39 – How Rising Costs Erode Investor Confidence07:08 – Pain in Melbourne, Gains in Brisbane08:15 – Federal Reforms Driving Investor Uncertainty12:02 – The Rental Pool Is Shrinking—What It Means14:29 – Supply, Demand, and Speculative Investment22:34 – Why Industry and Government Clash on Reform26:17 – How Politics Shapes Investor Outcomes28:40 – Lobbying, Legislation, and Investor Reaction31:06 – Who Investors Really Trust for Property Advice34:15 – Why Investors Need Holistic Property Guidance38:29 – Fragile Optimism: 60% Still Say It’s Time to Buy47:39 – Property Dumbo: Signing Contracts Too Soon50:01 – Wrap-Up and Where to Find PIPA ResourcesMentionsRental crisis worsens as more investors exit the market – 2025 PIPA Investor SurveyAbout the GuestLachlan Vidler is the Chair of the Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA), the peak body advocating for higher standards and transparency across the property industry. With deep experience as a property advisor and investor, Lachlan brings unique insight into the data and psychology behind investor behaviour.At PIPA, he works to raise professional standards, educate investors, and shape better policy outcomes for the housing sector. His leadership positions him at the centre of Australia’s most pressing conversations on affordability, rental supply, and the future of property investment.Connect with LachlanLinkedInInstagramResourcesVisit our website: https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.auIf you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us...