Prediction Market Movers

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with full-time mention market trader Tyrael, who has found much success in mention market trading — including a very profitable night during the State of the Union address. Tyrael breaks down exactly how he approaches volatile mention markets tied to figures like Donald Trump, JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Zohran Mamdani — and why speech-based contracts can be some of the most mispriced markets in the prediction space. Tyrael explains how he combines historical transcript frequency data with real-time geopolitical developments to price words before they’re spoken. He walks through the difference between scripted language and “weave” improvisation, how that affects probabilities, and why certain words like “Sleepy Joe” were clear fades during a formal address. The conversation also dives into: • How he handicaps State of the Union mention markets • The ethics of insider trading in prediction markets • Pre-recorded interview leak risk and adverse selection • “Rule cucks” and controversial resolutions on Kalshi and Polymarket • Why some mention markets (late night shows, TV tapings) may not belong on exchanges at all   Tyrael also shares how he transitioned into trading full-time, lessons from early losses (including a conviction bet on Josh Shapiro as VP), and how he balances high-intensity live event trading with family life. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Winning big during the State of the Union 3:00 - Trading on politics 4:30- On mentions markets 7:00 - Why mention markets? 9:30 - How long did it take to become a job? 12:00 - Balancing being a dad and a trader 14:50 - Managing information leaks 17:00 - Insider trading vs. sharp trading 19:50 - Navigating “pump schemes” 24:00 - improvements in market resolutions 27:00 - Which mention markets have value? For more for info on Tyrael, check him out on X - @ØxTyrael #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #PoliticalTrading #EventContracts #ElectionMarkets #StateOfTheUnion #DonaldTrump #Midterms #CFTC #CryptoPredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Sporttrade CEO Alex Kane explains why the company has officially applied for federal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). Instead of operating under 38 different state sports betting laws, Sporttrade wants to move to a single federal framework. Alex explains why the exchange model struggles under state tax structures, and why federal regulation may allow more innovation, better pricing, and stronger liquidity. We also discuss: • The difference between sportsbooks and exchanges • Why algorithmic and corporate trading are restricted in many states • How broker partnerships could expand access • What “high-quality liquidity” really means • How Sporttrade plans to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Sporttrade #CFTC #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #DCM #DCO 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Challenges with regulators 7:00 - On handle taxes 12:00 - What makes Sporttrade different? 15:00 - CFTC and DCM applications vs State license 25:45 - Potential new customers if granted DMC license 28:40 - How are you improving the status quo? 32:00 - Quality of liquidity 37:40 - Benefits of broker partnerships 40:45 - Market needs for traders in the PM industry

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach is joined by Gaeten Dugas, a top-100 Kalshi trader, for a deep dive into how experienced traders approach culture markets, political prediction markets, and insider trading risk. Gaeten explains why his trading starts with genuine interest, from politics and government shutdowns to music, movies, and pop culture markets like Spotify charts, Rotten Tomatoes, Taylor Swift, and Super Bowl halftime props. He breaks down how prediction markets help remove emotion from political analysis and why “skin in the game” produces better forecasts than traditional punditry. The conversation also tackles one of the biggest issues facing prediction markets today: insider trading and data leaks. Gaeten shares firsthand experiences with suspicious Spotify market movements, explains how traders protect themselves from leaked data, and reacts to Kalshi’s newly announced insider trading safeguards and integrity tools. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Getting into culture markets 3:00- Approach to trading 4:00 - Will PM traders get mainstream coverage 6:20 - What markets he is monitoring 9:40 - Requesting markets 10:30 Guarding insider trading 12:40 - Deciphering insider trading 14:00 - Markets he avoids 15:30 - When the price is right 17:00 Feeling secure with markets 20:30 How should Kalshi handle insider trading 21:20 - Using polymarket 22:10 - on Crypto 23:15 - Balancing the markets   #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #InsiderTrading #CultureMarkets #PoliticalPrediction #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #EventContracts #MarketIntegrity #SpotifyCharts #TaylorSwiftMarkets #CFTC #TradingPsychology

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher is joined by political commentator and writer Richard Hanania for an in-depth conversation on prediction markets, Republican Party realignment, and the road to the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election. Richard shares his personal history with prediction markets, from trading on PredictIt to being a named plaintiff in PredictIt’s lawsuit against the CFTC. The discussion explores why prediction markets remain one of the most powerful tools for forecasting political outcomes, holding commentators accountable, and cutting through media narratives. The conversation then turns to politics, where Richard explains his break from both white nationalist movements and the MAGA coalition, offering a candid analysis of how fringe ideologies have moved closer to the Republican mainstream. Chris and Richard examine the influence of figures like Nick Fuentes, the online far-right, and how these groups could impact Republican turnout and candidate selection in the 2026 midterms.

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Gigi Alcaraz, Founder of Mira, to explore how social-first trading platforms could reshape the future of prediction markets. Gigi breaks down Mira’s vision, why social markets and community-driven trading are becoming essential, and the biggest challenges facing prediction markets today. She also shares her personal journey — from finding her place in the prediction market ecosystem to participating in Kalshi’s builder program. The conversation wraps with a forward-looking discussion on how prediction markets can evolve, the role of consumer brands, and what builders need to get right to unlock mainstream adoption. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com #PredictionMarkets #SocialTrading #Fintech #Kalshi #TradingPlatforms

On this week’s edition of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Henry Lau, Founder of Skywalk, for an in-depth discussion on the rapidly evolving prediction market industry. Chris and Henry break down Skywalk’s mission, their strategy for scaling the platform, and how builders can thrive amid shifting regulations and increasing competition. The conversation then shifts to Polymarket’s U.S. comeback, what the relaunch means for the market, and if Polymarket can compete against Kalshi. To close out the episode, the two explore market integrity, emerging challenges for entrepreneurs in the space, and the broader future of prediction markets as crypto-native and regulated platforms converge. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

The two dive into the recent Kalshi case developments, how states could define swaps and the CFTC’s involvement in the prediction market landscape. Plus, the two also explore responsible trading, the explosion of  crypto and prediction markets, and project what the court's will decide in Kalshi cases.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with entrepreneur and prediction-market expert Ben Freeman to break down the future of forecasting, market structure, liquidity, and how AI is transforming trading platforms. Chris and Ben discuss how he entered the prediction market space, the biggest problems with current market infrastructure, what founders misunderstand about focus and scale, and why smarter incentives could unlock massive growth in forecasting markets. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with ProphetX Co-Founder Jake Benzaquen for a deep dive into the future of prediction markets. Jake shares his journey through major career pivots, how he entered the prediction market ecosystem, and what it has taken to navigate CFTC compliance while building an innovative trading platform. The conversation expands into macro-level prediction market trends, what the next generation of trading could look like, and how AI is poised to reshape the entire landscape. Whether you’re a trader, a policymaker, or someone fascinated by emerging fintech, this is a must-watch episode. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Evie, founder of XO Live — known online as @0xgingergirl — to talk about how her app is reshaping community engagement and prediction markets. Evie shares how she pivoted from building a dating app to creating a thriving prediction market platform, the difference between men and women in trading communities, and why she loves no mention markets. The two discuss how prediction markets influence companies, the ongoing badge wars, and Evie’s candid take on X as a sometimes toxic space for creators. Plus, she shares her experience meeting Shane Copeland. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Joinng the prediction market ecosystem 3:45 - Founding a dating app 5:15 - On pivoting from her dating app 9:25 - Live stream markets 13:15 - The impact of her app 16:30 Prediction markets influencing companies 17:30 - Difference between men and women in the prediction market space 22:30 - Approaching the no mention markets 24:15 - On meeting  Shane Copeland 26:15 - Why X can be a toxic place  28:00 The badge wars on social media 30:00 - Improvements to the industry 

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, the Political Director of Prediction News, to break down the results from this week’s off-year elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia. Chris and Damon analyze what the outcomes mean for 2025 and 2026, why Zohran Mamdani’s New York could reshape Democratic politics, and how the primaries are becoming even more critical in shaping party futures. They also discuss the biggest issues on voters’ minds, the question of Democratic leadership post-Harris, and whether Jack Ciattarelli has another run left in him. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jeremiah Johnson, Co-Founder of the New Center of Liberalism. Jeremiah shares how he got involved in prediction markets, his concerns about their role in politics, and how prediction data could reshape political discourse.   Chris and Jeremiah dive into the New York Mayoral race, explore what could happen if Zohran Mamdani wins, discuss life after Trump, and unpack the shifting dynamics in modern American politics.   👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com   0:00 - Intro 1:00 - How Jeremiah got involved into Prediction Markets 2:30 - Concerns in prediction markets 5:00 - Nate SIlver’s impact on polls 9:00 - Theology in prediction markets 13:30 - NYC mayoral race 19:30 - Who can challenge Cuomo? 22:00 - Brad Lander’s mass appeal 23:45 - Zohran Mamdani’s expectations as NY mayor 26:25 - 2026 midterms 35:15 - “There’s a lot of soul searching for the democrats” 42:00 - Paths for Trump 45:45 - Life after Trump 49:00 - Split Republican Party #PredictionMarkets #PoliticalPodcast #ChrisGerlacher #JeremiahJohnson #PredictionMarketMovers #ZohranMamdani #NYCPolitics #ElectionForecast #PostTrumpEra #PoliticsAndMarkets #PredictionNews

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with @PredMTrader, a leading content creator in the prediction market space. The two dive into PMT’s journey into prediction markets, the thrill of live trading, and how to find an edge in competitive prediction markets. Chris and PMT also explore the New York Mayoral race, discuss tips for young traders, and break down the obstacles and opportunities within the growing prediction market industry. 🎧 Watch, learn, and trade smarter with Prediction Market Movers! 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Joel Simkins, CEO and founder of XST Capital Group, for an in-depth conversation about the future of prediction markets and what could be one of the biggest shakeups in the space — the potential sale of Novig, one of the fastest-growing prediction market platforms. Chris and Joel break down: 💡 The business and regulatory challenges of acquiring a prediction market platform ⚖️ The sustainability of prediction markets in a competitive landscape 📊 What a Kalshi or Polymarket acquisition could mean for the industry #PredictionMarkets #Novig #JoelSimkins #XSTCapital #Kalshi #Polymarket #Fintech #CryptoTrading #FinancePodcast #MarketMovers #PredictionMarketMovers #MarketTrends #TradingPlatforms 00:00 - Intro 1:30 Skeptic about a possible acquisition 2:30 - Different types of acquisition deals 3:30 - Novig rumors 5:30 - Investor/founder aftermath 7:00 - Sweepstakes being outlawed 9:00 What makes prediction markets more sustainable? 11:15 - Acquisition wars in the prediction markets 13:00 - Market breakdown after Kalshi/Poly 15:00 - Regulatory risks in the industry 21:20 - Deal terms and earn outs with acquisition 22:40 - Administration changes impacting deals acquisition 24:00 - Future of prediction markets 26:00 - Will Kalshi/Poly dominate the market? 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Damon Thayer, Director of Politics at Prediction News and former Kentucky Senator, to explore the connection between sports betting, politics, and prediction markets. Thayer takes listeners inside Kentucky’s journey to legalizing sportsbooks, discussing the behind-the-scenes process, economic impact, and what the state’s success means for the rest of the country. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - The path to sports betting in Kentucky 7:00 - Who stopped sports betting in Kentucky? 9:00 - An immediate impact of legal betting in Kentucky 13:15 - Damon’s intro to prediction markets 19:00 - Prediction markets utilized in polling 27:00 - NY Mayoral race 33:30 - NY and Virginia gubernatorial races 40:00 - Post-Harris era for the democrats 42:30 - Kentucky bourbon 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.   For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com  

On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with online prediction market entertainer and Manifest 2025’s “Best Debtor”, Tumbles (@32Tumbles). Tumbles opens up about his wild journey on the Manifold trading platform, the types of markets he trades, and how things took a surprising turn leading to his infamous Manifest award. Chris and Tumbles dive deep into life as a prediction market entertainer, the intersection between Manifold and broader prediction markets, and some of his most memorable (and costly) trading stories. #PredictionMarkets #ManifoldMarkets #Manifest2025 #Tumbles #ChrisGerlache #PredictionMarketPodcast #OnlineTrading #PredictionMarketCommunity #Manifold 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.    For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher welcomes Fifty-One Alpha founder Aggie (@BlondiePredicts), often called the queen of prediction markets. Aggie opens up about her background in tennis, her transition into finance, and how she developed her passion for prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:00 - Aggies past life as a tennis player 3:15 - Transitioning into the business world 4:25 - From Latvia to NYC 7:00 - “People just can’t figure me out” 8:30 - Getting into content creation with no content background 9:30 - Prediction market intro  12:30 - Building an online community  15:30 - Which markets she is eyeing 16:45 - feeling welcome in the space 18:45 - Getting women more involved in the prediction market space 21:30 - Brands and prediction market 25:00 - What’s next for Aggie? 28:00 - Goodbye

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Noah Sternig, former head at Kalshiand long-time prediction market enthusiast. Noah shares his insider journey into Kalshi, how he pushed the limits of what prediction markets can be, and his perspective on defining insider trading in the industry. The conversation also dives into the future of prediction markets, regulation, and what’s next for Noah’s career. #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #InsiderTrading #NoahSternig #Regulation #CFTC #PredictionMarketMovers   👉 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications so you never miss an update from Prediction Market Movers!

Welcome to Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher is joined by Sporttrade founder Alex Kane, an expert in sports wagering and the regulatory environment with legal betting. The two discuss Kane's background, why he started Sporttrade, his letter to the CFTC, concerns with the current landscape and more! 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com

Join host Chris Gerlacher as he kicks off Prediction Market Movers, the podcast covering the latest in prediction market news, trading strategies, and legal updates. Each week, Chris talks with top traders, industry insiders, and everything around prediction markets. 👉 Subscribe now to stay updated on everything happening in the prediction market industry.