Mostly Growth

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman unpack a wide-ranging set of predictions and observations about where go-to-market strategy, AI, and pricing models are headed next. They discuss why what ChatGPT says about your product may become a core marketing KPI, the resurgence of direct mail and physical touchpoints in an AI-saturated world, and why “almost as good as a human” is a dangerous positioning for AI-driven products. The conversation also explores AI monetization paths through advertising, the risk of an AI infrastructure timing mismatch leading to a broader financial pullback, and what historical parallels like railroads and the Sears catalog can teach us about today’s buildout. The episode closes with real-world pricing lessons, from energy-as-a-service solar subscriptions to the surprisingly massive standalone economics of Apple’s AirPods, tying together how distribution, perception, and monetization shape durable growth.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRoThe Layer-Cake Playbook for Vertical SaaS Growth | with Roland Ligtenberghttps://youtu.be/yPxWvhPISKoOpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust?https://youtu.be/L6PLnvjcnpkFrom Birding Apps to Billion-Dollar Bundles: The Future of SaaS Growthhttps://youtu.be/mzITrIP70OkWhere Did All the Middle Managers Go?https://youtu.be/LvN7RzmApPU—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:07 Sponsors — Pulley, Metronome00:03:27 Welcome Back And Consumer Friction00:04:56 Insurance Middlemen Frustrations00:06:34 Explaining Newsletter Businesses00:07:25 Family Perceptions Of Work00:08:32 GTM And Growth Predictions00:09:46 Trust And Objectivity In ChatGPT00:11:28 ChatGPT As Marketing KPI00:13:41 Direct Mail Marketing Comeback00:15:23 Tech Buying Media Assets00:17:19 Fake Subscribers And Email Lore00:18:30 AI Quality Over Automation00:21:38 AI Healthcare And Ad Models00:24:07 Advertising Fuels AI Economics00:25:07 AI Boom Versus Bust Timing00:27:16 Infrastructure Before Killer Apps00:29:48 Railroad Economics And Real Estate00:30:13 Solar Subscriptions And Pricing00:32:17 AirPods As Recurring Revenue00:34:24 Show Outro And Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #GrowthMarketing #AITrends #GoToMarket #StartupStrategy

In this episode of Mostly Growth, Kyle Poyar and CJ Gustafson sit down with Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom, to unpack how building, marketing, and scaling software has changed over the past decade—and what still matters. Des reflects on the early days of SaaS, why attention and distribution have become the hardest problems in modern growth, and how AI has intensified both competition and hype. The conversation dives into founder-led sales, why customer love and real product value beat narrative-driven marketing, and what weak retention metrics reveal about many AI-native startups. Des also shares Intercom’s thinking on outcome-based pricing, brand investment, and why reality ultimately “bats last” in software, offering a grounded perspective on what it takes to build durable companies in an increasingly noisy market.—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—LINKS: Intercom: https://www.intercom.com/Des on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/destraynor/Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:Mall Santas, Chicken Fingers, and the Case for Keeping It Simplehttps://youtu.be/tgHuqVQgvQw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:15 Sponsors — Metronome | Pulley00:03:35 Introducing Des Traynor00:04:18 Early SaaS Nostalgia00:05:45 Why Distribution Got Hard00:07:12 Going Niche in Modern GTM00:08:50 Founder-Led Sales & AI Rebrands00:10:44 Product vs Narrative00:12:08 AI Retention Reality00:14:44 Churn Hiding Growth00:16:00 Easy Come, Easy Churn00:17:56 What Makes AI Companies Great00:19:58 Standing Out With Real Proof00:21:46 Customer-Led Marketing Wins00:23:08 When to Invest in Brand00:25:13 Why CMOs Don’t Last00:27:03 Turning Happy Customers Into Growth00:30:09 Pricing AI: Outcomes vs Cost-Plus00:31:57 Limits of Outcome-Based Pricing00:32:56 What 20% Margins Mean for SaaS00:34:31 Leaving Money on the Table00:36:50 Pricing as a Marketing Choice00:38:03 Business Blunders & NDAs00:40:03 Why Ideas Aren’t the Moat00:41:22 Fake Scarcity & Angel Bait00:42:55 Stuff We Tried This Week00:43:44 Happy Customers as Marketing00:44:12 Vibe Coding Gets Scary Fast00:45:25 SaaS Moats vs DIY Tools#MostlyGrowthPodcast #AIStartups #SaaSPricing #FounderLedGrowth #B2BMarketing

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar explore the hidden mechanics behind focus, competition, and value creation across both consumer culture and B2B SaaS. They unpack why point-solution companies like Untuckit and Raising Cane’s can outperform diversified rivals, examine how competition actually strengthens category demand, and break down the gray zone of mid-market venture exits where founder incentives and investor expectations diverge. The conversation ranges from private equity roll-ups to the realities of cold-calling returning as a top-performing growth channel, to pricing transparency, algorithmic price discrimination, and how everyday behaviors—from mall Santas to $12 club water—reflect deeper strategic forces. It’s a fast, practical look at how operators can stay focused, understand market pressure, and avoid chasing the wrong game.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:SaaS Founder or Pop Star? CJ Gets Schooledhttps://youtu.be/LMZq_DwVmkYThe Layer-Cake Playbook for Vertical SaaS Growth | with Roland Ligtenberghttps://youtu.be/yPxWvhPISKoThe One Use Case for Venture Debt That Most Founders Never Think Abouthttps://youtu.be/XxH_Y9OH_i0—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:09 Sponsors – Pulley | Metronome00:03:29 Mall Fashion & Nostalgia00:05:17 The Modern Mall Santa Reinvented00:06:19 Untuckit & the Platform vs. Point Solution Debate00:07:58 The Power of Category Focus00:09:23 Obsession, Craft, and the Raising Cane’s Lesson00:10:13 Germany’s “Hidden Champions”00:12:11 Competition: When to Care and When Not To00:13:32 OpenAI, Gemini & the “Code Red” Mindset00:15:01 Competition → Category Education00:16:27 Pricing Pages as Competitive Battlegrounds00:17:32 VC Deck Theater & Competitive Grids00:18:21 Rise of B2B Newsletter Advertising00:19:15 Awkward Exits: The Venture “Gray Zone”00:21:13 Founder Life-Changing Exits vs. VC Math00:22:31 Why Secondaries Exist (and When They Help)00:24:25 Why $100–500M Is the Most Common SaaS Exit Range00:25:41 Structural Misalignment in Venture Exits00:26:47 How Much Secondary Is Too Much?00:29:52 Business Blunders: Justin Bieber the PM00:31:21 Voice Notes, Etiquette, and Chaos00:32:50 Cold Calling Makes a Comeback00:35:17 Catherine Jhung Still Cold Calls CFOs00:37:11 Algorithm Pricing Labels & Data-Driven Pricing00:40:38 Why Clubs Charge $12 for Water00:42:27 Closing Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #mallstrategy #focuswins #businesssimplicity #growthoperators

Christopher O’Donnell, Founder and CEO of Day.ai and former Chief Product Officer at HubSpot, joins CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar to explore what it takes to build an AI-native CRM from first principles in a moment when product development has “no rules.” He reflects on shifting from leading massive teams to coding daily, why CRM needs to return to serving CEOs rather than being trapped in operational bottlenecks, and how blending familiar interfaces with powerful AI assistants can reset user expectations. O’Donnell digs into market selection, product-market fit in rapidly evolving categories, agent-based pricing, and the cultural advantage of staying close to customers rather than the industry echo chamber, all while sharing candid stories about creativity, ecosystems, and the accelerating pace of AI-driven product craftsmanship.—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—LINKS: Day.ai: https://day.ai/Christopher on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/markitecht/Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:OpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust?https://youtu.be/L6PLnvjcnpkThe Product-Market Fit Treadmill | Brian Balfour Explainshttps://youtu.be/I5UqGlBOdoA—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:10 Sponsors – Metronome | Pulley00:03:31 Introducing Christopher O’Donnell00:05:20 From Music to Software00:07:10 Leaving HubSpot to Start Again00:09:00 Inspiring Teams at Scale00:10:50 What It Means to Build AI-Native00:12:40 How Location Shapes Careers00:14:30 Relearning in an AI-First Era00:16:20 Shipping and Iterating With AI00:18:10 The App as the Main Character00:20:00 Using AI to Pressure-Test Decisions00:21:50 Rethinking CRM Expectations00:23:40 Choosing a Hybrid CRM Approach00:25:30 Entering a Massive Market00:27:20 PMF in the AI Era00:29:10 The CRM Status Quo and Its Defenders00:31:00 How CRM Lost Its Purpose00:32:50 Rethinking Seat-Based Pricing00:34:40 Why Credit Models Confuse Buyers00:36:30 Flat-Rate Plans and Ecosystem Dynamics00:38:20 Enterprises Sitting on AI Commits00:40:10 Conference Room Dystopia00:42:00 Getting Burned by Ecosystems00:43:50 Trying Amazon’s Rufus00:45:40 Suno and the Music-Tech Debate00:46:28 Show Outro#MostlyGrowthPodcast #AInative #CRMinnovation #ProductLeadership #StartupFounders

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar bounce between sharp SaaS insights and delightfully weird internet culture. They start with an unexpected dive into competitive bird-watching apps, then break down recent software mergers like Superhuman + Grammarly + Coda and what they signal about scaling, cross-sell strategy, and private equity mechanics. CJ and Kyle explore why PE portfolios are becoming powerful distribution channels for AI solutions, how niche data “signals” are outpacing generic ones in sales, and share hedge-fund-style tactics for uncovering proprietary business information. The conversation rounds out with “business blunders” — from Y-axis chart crimes to clickbait headlines — and a lively discussion on Spotify’s pricing power and how companies should (and absolutely should not) communicate price increases. —SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:The Layer-Cake Playbook for Vertical SaaS Growth | with Roland Ligtenberghttps://youtu.be/yPxWvhPISKo—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:09 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome00:03:31 Birding, Big Year & AI Bird Apps00:06:08 Software M&A Trends in SaaS00:08:23 Superhuman–Grammarly–Coda Reverse Merger00:10:00 How Larger Valuations Attract a New Investor Class00:11:21 Streaming Wars & Platform Consolidation00:12:46 Private Equity as a Distribution Channel for AI00:14:14 How PE Firms Drive Multi-Company Expansion00:15:22 AI for Efficiency: The PE CFO Playbook00:17:10 When AI ROI Really Matters in PE00:18:49 Signal-Based Selling: High-Intent Buyer Detection00:20:41 Signal Fatigue & the Hunt for Better Data00:22:16 Why Proprietary Signals Win00:23:31 Creative (and Creepy) Data Tactics00:25:35 Pinterest vs. Google: Aspirational vs. Actual Behavior00:26:43 Blurring Work & Personal Signals in AI Tools00:27:12 The Michael Jordan of Y-Axis Crimes00:29:59 Notion Agents Billboard: “Let Them Cook”00:31:57 Pricing in the Real World: Spotify00:34:26 How to Communicate a Price Increase00:35:06 Closing Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #PricingStrategy #AIGrowth #GoToMarket #PrivateEquity

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar interview Roland Ligtenberg, Co-Founder and SVP of Growth & Innovation at Housecall Pro, to break down how vertical SaaS can scale in messy, offline markets. Roland shares how Housecall Pro grew from a $4-per-month scheduling tool into a platform with more than a dozen products, emphasizing the importance of sequencing “layer cake” monetization — building a solid core before adding new revenue streams. He walks through unconventional customer acquisition tactics like cold-calling trades businesses, Yeti giveaways, truck-wash offers, and word-of-mouth tracking, all rooted in one principle: speak to customers through the channels they already use. The conversation also hits pricing strategy, PLG vs. SLG balance, TAM turnover, and using AI to tailor messaging by segment, trade, and intent — with constant A/B testing to avoid generic “AI slop.”—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Housecall Pro: https://www.housecallpro.com/Roland on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rolandal/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:Do vanity plates bring serious business?https://youtu.be/Cm1rubFb-kg—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:37 Sponsors – Metronome, Pulley00:03:57 Guest Introduction: Roland Ligtenberg00:04:30 Poker Background00:07:22 EDM and Hobbies00:08:35 Layer Cake Strategy00:09:19 Avoiding Too Many Layers Too Soon00:10:13 Marketplace Pivot & Home Services Complexity00:11:06 Early Fintech & Core Payment Rails00:11:53 Source-of-Record Wedge00:12:23 Serving 55+ Home Service Verticals00:13:52 Pricing & Packaging Across Many Products00:14:32 Core Plans and Add-On Structure00:16:05 Balancing PLG and SLG00:17:47 When to Begin Upsell Conversations00:18:52 Sales, Onboarding & Success Motion00:19:49 Matching Pain to the Right Solution00:21:54 Finding the “Front Door” for Offline Trades00:23:26 Gatekeepers & Communication Challenges00:24:23 Unconventional Acquisition Tactics00:26:27 Early Days Tactics for Traction00:26:49 Cold Calling as First Principle00:28:19 Improving LTV & Scaling Calling Ops00:29:40 TAM Management & Value-Led Outreach00:32:17 Word of Mouth as a Growth Driver00:34:09 AI’s Role in Go-To-Market Personalization00:38:04 AI Tools in the Growth Stack00:40:18 Business Blunders Segment00:43:20 Pricing in the Real World (Christmas Tree Story)00:46:50 House Call Elf Holiday Marketing00:46:58 Closing#MostlyGrowthPodcast #VerticalSaaS #GoToMarket #PricingStrategy #FintechMonetization

In this Thanksgiving-week Mostly Growth episode, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar ditch the serious finance talk for a looser, drinks-in-hand conversation with Ben Hillman, bouncing between CJ’s nostalgic emo-punk concert adventure, the curse of vanity license plates, and the epidemic of “Y-axis crimes” in founder charts. They riff on Spotify Wrapped copycats, YouTube becoming living-room TV, kids’ YouTube empires, and the game theory behind The Traitors and the Monty Hall problem before shifting into real-world pricing: newsletter perk economics, the pitfalls of hourly consulting, and why value-based packaging always wins. The episode stays playful but still sneaks in sharp insights on growth, psychology, and how weird the business world can be when you actually pay attention.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://x.com/parikpatelcfa/status/1992706757073023191?s=46https://www.wired.com/story/null-license-plate-landed-one-hacker-ticket-hell/https://x.com/im_roy_lee/status/1992692253257855261/photo/1https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/16/the-traitors-a-reality-tv-show-offers-a-useful-economics-lessonhttps://nyulangone.org/news/one-third-americans-are-trying-avoid-gluten-it-villain-we-think-it-ishttps://x.com/techsalesguy3/status/1991585201601016161?s=46https://paintvine.co.nz/blogs/news/the-legend-of-picassos-napkin-sketch?srsltid=AfmBOooiyTYGfUdKJZLpblbQAcJzQLg011Os_xeyaCgSpEIXrtIuD6hHhttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_started-from-the-email-now-were-here-activity-7397607230600126465-iVPv/—RELATED EPISODES:Is a weekly martini ARR? | with Dave Kellogghttps://youtu.be/Yb1lUQLJ6qw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:06 Sponsors – Pulley & Metronome00:03:26 Mostly Drinks Episode00:04:39 Concert Stories & Pop-Punk Nostalgia00:07:30 Concert Parenting & Full-Circle Moment00:08:01 Business Blunders Begin00:09:51 License Plate Fails & Accounting Humor00:11:33 Y-Axis Crime Chart Review00:13:46 Global Podcast “Success” & Listener Jokes00:15:25 Spotify Wrapped: Retention vs. Acquisition00:16:29 YouTube as the Future of Podcasts00:17:21 Kids’ Shows, Blippi & Creator Economics00:18:20 The Traitors Show Overview00:19:55 Game Theory & Winning as a Traitor00:22:11 Monty Hall Problem Setup00:23:52 Game Show Logic & Gambler’s Fallacies00:25:34 Pricing in the Real World00:26:28 Community Discount Card Business Model00:28:34 Newsletter Perks & Subscriber Value00:29:59 Marketplace Discount Math00:31:26 Negotiating Like a CFO00:32:25 Gluten-Free Nights & Pricing Strategy00:34:49 Outbound Pizza as a Go-to-Market Play00:36:28 Outbound Pizza Tuesdays to Gluten-Free Tuesdays00:37:02 Pricing Services: Value vs. Hourly00:40:12 The Picasso Pricing Story00:42:20 Harvard Business School Case Study & Kim K Photo00:43:27 Thanksgiving Cooking: Roast Chicken & Porcini Ragu00:44:21 Wrap & Credits

Mostly Growth’s conversation with legendary SaaS operator and blogger Dave Kellogg digs into the shifting economics of software, why traditional ARR metrics are breaking down, and what actually drives buyer interest in today’s M&A landscape. Dave, CJ, and Kyle unpack the growing divide between “recurring,” “re-occurring,” and empirically recurring revenue, calling out how misreported ARR (from multiplying single months by 12, counting trials as customers, or ignoring opt-outs) is warping valuations. They explore why many $20–50M horizontal SaaS companies have become “zombies,” why vertical software and AI tuck-ins are still getting bought, and how investor preferences and preference stacks create brutal misalignments between founders, employees, and late-stage capital. The episode then shifts to real-world pricing psychology—from Instacart and DoorDash memberships to credit-card fee complexity and resort-fee opacity—before finishing with tools they’re using (PowerPoint’s charting, Wispr Flow) and Dave’s hard-won rules for scheduling etiquette after intros.—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Kellblog: https://kellblog.com/Dave on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelloggdave/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:The Staffing Ratios Salesforce Used, with Brett Queener of Bonfire VChttps://youtu.be/lJVgstAXjJsOpenAI’s Impossible Math: $500B or Bust?https://youtu.be/L6PLnvjcnpk—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:21 Sponsors – Metronome & Pulley00:03:48 Guest Intro – Dave Kellogg00:04:18 Record Month Discussion00:05:36 Who Will Buy All the SaaS Companies?00:07:11 Investor Marks, Zombies & Misalignment00:09:21 Horizontal SaaS Interest vs Transactions00:10:32 M&A Narrative Violation & Carter Data00:12:18 Big Tech’s AI Tuck-In Strategy00:12:46 Vertical SaaS Positioning & Defensibility00:14:16 Selling Durable Vertical SaaS Stories00:17:09 “End of the ARR World” & Metric Breakdown00:20:01 ARR Misreporting & Annualization Abuse00:21:24 Snowflake’s “No ARR” Approach00:22:11 Trials, Opt-Outs & Counting ARR Properly00:23:11 CAR Abuse, Overstated Metrics & K-Ratio Failures00:25:28 Empirical vs Contractual Recurring Revenue00:27:18 Usage-Based Pricing, Stickiness & Investor Perception00:28:42 Outcome-Based Models vs Revenue Classification00:29:38 AI Valuations, Multiples & CFO Pain00:30:00 Pricing in the Real World – Delivery Memberships00:32:10 Membership Stickiness & 3-Sided Monetization00:33:04 Costco as the Ultimate Subscription Business00:34:18 Credit Card Fees, Lounge Promises & Coupon-Clipping00:37:31 Resort Fees & Hidden Pricing Games00:40:27 Something We Tried – PowerPoint & Wispr Flow00:42:47 Scheduling Norms, Calendly Etiquette & Intro Protocol00:46:24 Closing & Outro

Brian Balfour, Founder & CEO of Reforge and former VP of Growth at HubSpot, joins Mostly Growth to explore why product-market fit is a moving target. He introduces the concept of the Product-Market Fit Treadmill, a state where rising customer expectations and competitive pressure make it harder than ever to stay ahead. Brian breaks down how AI has accelerated PMF collapse, explains the hidden costs of product adoption, and shares how Reforge shipped five AI-native products with a team of just 20 people. Packed with frameworks, strategic insight, and startup realism, this episode is essential listening for product leaders, operators, and founders navigating the next wave of GTM.—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Brian Balfour: brianbalfour.comBrian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://brianbalfour.com/four-fits-growth-frameworkhttps://x.com/amasad/status/1981201454032703662?s=46https://getlatka.com/companies/firefliesaihttps://x.com/rowancheung/status/1988218743952916537?https://gamma.app/insights/how-we-built-a-usd100m-business-differently—RELATED EPISODES:When the marketing math doesn’t math | with Emily Kramerhttps://youtu.be/sSuoV_YSrlwWhy Founders Are Posting Sad Dinnershttps://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:15 Sponsors – Pulley, Metronome00:03:36 Guest Introduction – Brian Balfour00:06:24 Writing, Frameworks, and Career Foundations00:09:56 PMF Misconceptions and the Treadmill00:13:25 AI Acceleration and PMF Threshold Shifts00:16:07 CRM Expectations and Changing Market Dynamics00:18:53 AI-Native CRM Approaches and Workflow Changes00:21:08 R&D Investment and Customer Expectations00:23:37 Roadmaps, Feature Velocity, and Customer Education00:26:02 AI Adoption Across Product Discovery, Delivery, and Adoption00:27:17 Product Adoption Constraints and Human Bottlenecks00:29:06 Platform Cycles and Distribution Shifts00:31:05 Framework for Evaluating Platform Bets00:33:20 Open–Close Platform Dynamics in AI00:36:34 Emerging Platforms and Early Ecosystem Bets00:39:10 AI Discovery Channels and Traffic Distribution00:40:03 Distribution Shifts and OpenAI’s Multi-Channel Bets00:41:15 Hiring, Resumes, and AI-Generated Applications00:43:20 Note-Taking Apps, Market Size, and “Flintstoning”00:46:06 Vertical AI Note-Taking and System-of-Record Paths00:48:27 Gamma, Canva, and AI Presentation Tools00:50:15 Onboarding Innovation with AI Agents00:51:57 Closing Remarks and Outro—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #ProductMarketFit #BrianBalfour #StartupStrategy #Reforge

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ and Kyle break down the brutal math behind OpenAI’s path to a $500B revenue future—unpacking how much would realistically need to come from consumer subscriptions, B2B APIs, advertising, and commerce. Using comparisons to Netflix, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Snapchat, they map out the limits of each revenue stream and debate whether OpenAI can ever become both the world’s largest subscription business and a top-tier ad platform. Along the way, they detour into business blunders (including Kyle getting locked out of LinkedIn for being “too efficient”).—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/klook-ipo-s1-breakdownhttps://openai.com/index/openai-amd-strategic-partnership/https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/companies-pouring-billions-advance-ai-infrastructure-2025-10-06/https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/https://www.notoriousplg.ai/p/notorious-openais-revenue-breakdownhttps://evoca.tv/netflix-user-statistics/https://www.yaguara.co/amazon-prime-statistics/https://www.cnbc.com/select/amazon-prime-is-it-worth-it/https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SNAP/snap/revenuehttps://www.businessofapps.com/data/youtube-statistics/https://saad-report.rippling.com/result/https://x.com/artman/status/1988733285086687729?s=46https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/11/introducing-iphone-pocket-a-beautiful-way-to-wear-and-carry-iphone/—RELATED EPISODES:Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantzhttps://youtu.be/ijFIMmtpLNwThe Product-Market Fit Treadmill | Brian Balfour Explainshttps://youtu.be/I5UqGlBOdoA—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:25 Sponsors – Metronome, Pulley00:03:53 Return from Sponsors and Show Kickoff00:04:09 Klook IPO and the Global Tours Market00:09:53 Real World MBA and Startup Lessons00:10:27 OpenAI’s Path to $500 Billion00:11:02 Revenue Makeup – ChatGPT, API, and Anthropic00:12:15 Benchmarking Consumer Subscription Giants00:13:23 Ads, Take Rate, and Diversification Strategy00:19:27 Scaling to $200B in Subscriptions00:20:06 Meta-Sized Ad Ambitions for OpenAI00:21:35 Flash Forward – Can OpenAI Really Get There?00:22:45 YouTube, Tokens, and Streaming Models00:23:49 CJ’s Recruiting Venture – Mostly Talent00:29:28 Building the Whole Finance Department00:31:29 Experimental Pricing Model Proposal00:33:01 Iterating on Warm Intro Structure00:35:23 CJ’s Preferred Recruiting Model00:36:15 Report from Rippling – Software as a Disservice00:39:40 LinkedIn Lockout: Kyle’s Wake-Up Call00:40:40 CJ’s Bookmarking Blunder & Twitter UI Rant00:41:27 Social Media Game Push – NYT, LinkedIn, Facebook00:42:27 Apple’s “iPhone Pocket” & Borat Comparison00:43:00 Final Banter: Satchels & Sign-Off—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar dig into what it means to be useful rather than just right at work, exploring how communication, empathy, and impact matter more than technical precision as careers mature. They share candid lessons from their own paths—CJ’s focus on making others look good to earn promotions and Kyle’s evolution into a domain expert through public writing—before unpacking what separates good from great VPs of Sales with insights from Pavilion founder Sam Jacobs. The conversation then shifts to OpenAI’s “too big to fail” claims, the economic ripple effects of AI infrastructure spending, and how finance leaders can stay grounded in reality. Rounding out the episode, the hosts preview their latest research—CJ’s “Agentic Finance” report on AI in the finance stack and Kyle’s 2025 SaaS Benchmarks—and close with lighthearted banter about founder age stats, home maintenance mishaps, and the price of professional Christmas lights—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://sarahcharlton.substack.com/p/from-being-right-to-being-usefulhttps://www.highalpha.com/saas-benchmarks https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stackhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/finance-in-2030https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-algorithm-will-see-you-now/https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-ceo-sam-altman-forecasts-20-billion-annualized-revenue-yearhttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/your-pricing-is-broken—RELATED EPISODES:Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0How To Win at Early Stage Sales With the Guy Who Helped Take Snyk From $0 to $100M+https://youtu.be/VKrZCte8fyM996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:43 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome00:04:03 Flight Cancellation and Airport Chaos00:07:23 Being Right vs. Being Useful at Work00:09:33 Career Paths – Expert vs. Manager00:10:42 Getting Promoted and Making Others Look Good00:14:50 What Separates a Good VP of Sales from a Great One00:17:22 The CFO Mindset Behind Great Sales Leaders00:21:58 Is OpenAI Too Big To Fail?00:24:32 AI Investments and Economic Growth00:26:30 Accounting Games and Useful Life of AI Infrastructure00:27:38 Agentic Finance and the AI-Driven Finance Stack00:31:07 2025 SaaS Benchmarks Report Highlights00:33:24 Realistic Growth Rates by ARR Tier00:34:15 Efficiency Gains and Headcount Reduction00:35:05 AI’s Impact on Engineering Teams00:37:09 Age and Startup Success00:39:54 The Power of Networks and Mature Relationships00:40:50 Something You Tried This Week – HVAC Cleaning00:46:13 Credits – Mostly Growth Closing Remarks—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #StartupFinance #AIPodcast #SaaSLeadership #GoToMarket

Ever built a plan that looks airtight on paper—until you do the math? Emily Kramer (ex-Asana, Carta) joins the Mostly Growth crew to expose the hilariously painful reality of B2B marketing budgets, broken forecasts, and exec goals that straight-up don't add up. From her viral “Random Acts of Marketing” framework to headcount-vs-program spend debates, Emily breaks down why planning often feels like a farce. The episode also dives into the budgeting tug-of-war between CMOs and CFOs, why LinkedIn marketing is mostly a mess, and how to stop optimizing things that don’t matter. If you’ve ever been told to “hit a number” that makes zero sense, this one’s for you.—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/MKT1 Newsletter: https://newsletter.mkt1.co/Emily on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilykramer/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:00:13 The CMO Budget Dilemma00:00:33 B2B Brands Trying to Be Cool on LinkedIn00:01:14 Show Intro – Mostly Growth with CJ and Kyle00:01:38 Sponsors – Metronome and Pulley00:03:58 Guest Introduction – Emily Kramer and the Steph Curry / Taylor Swift Analogy00:06:14 Emily Kramer’s Frameworks: Random Acts of Marketing (RAM)00:08:47 Fuel and Engine Framework – Balancing Creation and Distribution00:12:34 CFO vs. Marketing – Goal Planning Tensions00:13:19 Forecasting and Budgeting – Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up00:16:44 When the Math Doesn’t Math – Efficiency and Conversion00:18:30 Big Bets and Budget Planning00:20:36 Headcount vs. Program Spend Trade-Offs00:22:57 Biggest Mistakes in Annual Planning00:24:30 Building a LinkedIn Flywheel and Influencer Strategy00:26:45 Thought Leader Ads and Boosting Executive Posts00:29:10 Cringe B2B Content and Random Acts of Marketing00:32:02 LinkedIn’s Pay-to-Play Shift00:35:49 Hot or Not: Marketing Channels00:41:51 Emily’s Market One Supper Club and Community Building00:44:59 Wrap-Up and Credits—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #TheMathDoesntMath #StartupStruggles #B2BMarketing #BudgetBattle

In this high-energy episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the hidden levers of SaaS growth and what truly separates startups that scale to $20M+ ARR from those that stall out. They explore eye-opening data from 6,500 companies, revealing how the best improve net retention, raise pricing, and re-engineer their revenue models over time. Alongside the metrics, there’s plenty of playful chaos—like a naming debate over “Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gustafson,” a rapid-fire game of “Founder or Pop Star,” and CJ’s accidental IPO embargo break. It’s part insight, part inside joke, and 100% for SaaS operators and C-suite climbers.—LINKS: Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-compounding-startuphttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-odds-of-making-ithttps://www.superme.ai/kylepoyar?conversationId=VgDXTOl2Z89mW7UYXstU0bhttps://a16z.com/anatomy-of-an-enterprise-platform-company/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hhi.asphttps://navan.com/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/navan-ipo-s1-breakdownhttps://x.com/amendandpretend/status/1983588137453416763?s=46https://x.com/ryan_c_walsh/status/1983705182371475630?s=46https://www.reddit.com/r/TwinCities/comments/z6hxp8/how_much_are_people_paying_for_residential_snow/—RELATED EPISODES:Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinnershttps://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:20 Sponsors Pulley and Metronome00:03:24 Welcome Back Dodgers Banter00:05:03 SaaS Founder or Pop Star Game00:07:08 Growth Levers Report Overview00:08:33 Building for Expansion and Retention00:10:11 Figure It Out and ICP Discussion00:11:47 Monthly Growth and Compounding00:13:44 Pricing Lessons Fat Joe Quote00:14:46 AI Avatars Introduction00:15:35 CJ Tests the Kyle Chatbot00:16:39 AI Costs Beta and Power Users00:17:54 Using AI for Writing and Research00:19:52 Cannibalizing Content and Platform Talk00:21:28 A16z Platform Discussion00:23:49 Herfindahl Hirschman Index Explained00:24:33 HHI Applied to Market Entry00:26:13 CrowdStrike Datadog Multi Product Models00:29:17 Business Blunders and Navan IPO00:33:08 Snow Removal Pricing in the Real World—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaSGrowth #StartupStrategy #B2BTech #RevenueRetention

CJ, Kyle, and Ben sit down with product-growth leader Leah Tharin to unpack why “growth” is the connective tissue between marketing traffic and product revenue, how a new middle segment of visitors just wants product information (not onboarding), and why interactive demos and ICP-focused metrics beat vanity signups. They get into AI-era realities—LLMs ingesting messy web data, SEO-style gaming creeping into AI search, and why you must structure content for machines without drowning it in noise. Leah shares practical playbooks for segmenting dashboards by ICP, qualifying intent before trials, and building moats through workflow depth and integrations. They close with Business Blunders (cloud outages stranding smart beds), a “potentially reliable at 2 a.m.” wealth thought experiment, and Pricing in the Real World (when shrinking markets get more profitable and why LEGO’s premium strategy stillTimestamps:00:00 Preview and Intro01:00 Theme and Show Intro by Ben01:23 Welcome and Guest Intro: Leah Tharin joins Mostly Growth02:58 Halloween banter and European vs. US traditions04:03 Europe’s AI/startup scene and data protection realities07:34 Why founders move HQs to the US; SF gravity for AI startups08:15 EU hubs, language barriers, and multilingual products09:45 What’s working in growth right now? Setting definitions10:07 “Growth is just marketing, right?” — Leah’s framework12:54 Trials vs. info-seekers; fix onboarding for two intents16:06 Prompt-box homepages and brand vs. explanation debt19:46 AI search, poisoning, and content architecture limits22:32 What to do now: simplify metrics and segment by ICP23:12 Building ICP vs. non-ICP dashboards that guide teams25:37 Use interactive demos; qualify intent before trials34:32 Snake-eating-its-tail data and model bias in training sets35:43 Founder advice: bet on problem-obsessed teams and workflows38:41 Business Blunders: AWS outage and “smart bed” fail39:46 Potentially Reliable at 2 a.m.: The “missing billionaires” thought experiment44:06 Pricing in the Real World: shrinking markets, rising margins45:10 LEGO pricing and premium positioning rant49:24 Events on a boat: captive audiences and sponsorships50:45 Credits and Sign-offLinks:https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fezzafar_mercor-is-opening-an-office-in-nyc-by-the-activity-7349945988284895232-16My/https://www.leahtharin.com/p/why-ai-cannot-simulate-your-customershttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/leahtharin_you-cant-make-this-up-its-like-building-activity-7388137959339995136-4ntR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABXudO4BrPOvYZxxohi5ofSeJBQlukFBEc4https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Missing_Billionaireshttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/12/how-to-invest-your-enormous-inheritancehttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/26/the-counterintuitive-economics-of-smokinghttps://www.lego.com/en-us/product/death-star-75419https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvXD7aHLoiw

In this episode, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman break down the data behind Kyle’s new 2025 B2B Go-To-Market report, covering what’s actually working in sales and marketing right now — and what’s not. They discuss why most companies are spreading their marketing budgets too thin, how focusing deeply on a few proven channels drives better ROI, and why founder-led content on LinkedIn is outperforming everything else. The crew digs into the rise of AI search, the surprising durability of SEO, and the death of AI SDRs. CJ also explains his “analytics escalator” framework, showing how teams can evolve from basic dashboards to predictive and prescriptive analytics. The episode wraps with their favorite “business blunders” and a nostalgic dive into LimeWire’s bizarre Web3 comeback.Get Kyle's GTM Report here: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Timestamps:00:00 Beyoncé and the Hot Sauce Reference01:42 Welcome to Mostly Growth02:10 Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew & Fall Banter03:02 The Problem with Startup Swag04:32 The Best Swag Ever: Runway’s “Burn Rate” Hot Sauce06:12 Beyoncé Callback & Yeti Self-Portrait Water Bottle08:32 Transition to GTM Discussion08:42 What’s Actually Working in GTM09:15 Too Many Channels, Not Enough Focus10:05 The Power Law of Marketing Spend11:44 F1, Downforce, and Channel Focus13:15 Double Down on Winning Channels14:11 The One-Trick Pony Fallacy15:07 Inbound Isn’t Dead — It’s Just Personal16:14 The LinkedIn Effect: People vs. Brands17:48 Why Founder-Led Content Wins19:09 The GTM Scorecard Framework20:00 What’s in the Top-Right Quadrant20:14 The Failure of AI SDRs21:03 The Rise of AI Search (AIO)22:02 AI Hype vs. Real Adoption22:43 Finance Teams Taking Over Analytics23:11 Who Should Own Analytics25:00 The Analytics Escalator: Four Levels Explained28:49 From Dashboards to Diagnosis31:08 Avoiding Useless Analysis33:07 Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics38:03 Why Analytics Needs More Than Software39:39 Should CFOs Really Own Analytics40:08 Business Blunders: The Dreaded Catch-Up Email41:25 How to Say No Gracefully43:00 The LimeWire Comeback44:20 LimeWire Buys Fyre Festival Rights45:00 Nostalgia, Scams, and Brand Value in 2025Links:https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7387167459633504257/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDZJPJV__bQhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primate_cityhttps://podcasts.musixmatch.com/podcast/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard-01gyvn3sxrv2dzjp7a94ea738y/episode/brad-pitt-01jydvce50ysyercfshbdgtanvhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/cfos-are-taking-over-the-analytics-departmenthttps://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-say-nohttps://nftnow.com/news/lmwr-limewire-is-back-from-the-dead-as-a-web3-brandhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/limewire-crypto-fyre-festival.htmlhttps://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/fyre-festival-musical-taika-waititi-rita-ora-1236362629/https://getplanta.com/

In this episode, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the concept of “sloponomics”—a tongue-in-cheek look at the overwhelming flood of mediocre AI-generated content and what it means for creators, startups, and investors. They discuss how unique voices and genuine creativity will stand out in an AI-saturated landscape, the economic parallels between modern content creation and startup growth, and the tricky dynamics of building sustainable momentum in a world of noise. The trio also unpack the “$10K MRR” meme, pricing psychology, and the difference between chasing vanity metrics and building lasting value. With humor and real-world insight, they explore how AI, distribution, and early-stage investment are reshaping what success looks like in tech and media.Timestamps:00:00 Preview and Intro01:37 Being Mean to AI and Early Banter05:00 The Rise of AI-Generated “Slop” Content07:15 The Creator “Haves and Have-Nots”09:00 Losing Credit to AI Models11:20 Feeding the Beast: 400 Posts Later12:00 “Slop Talk” and Pop-Culture References13:00 The $10K MRR Meme and Startup Momentum15:20 Pricing Psychology and Product Traction17:10 Hunting Mice, Buffalo, and Elephants18:45 The Ideal Customer Profile and Early Adopters20:15 Venture Funds, Bubbles, and Ecosystem Investing23:45 When Startups Invest in Startups26:40 Slack, Lattice, and the Platform Play29:05 Wrapping Up and Late-Night InsightsEpisodes Referenced:Slop Talk (coming soon)https://www.youtube.com/slackerstuffWhy Only 2% of Startups Make Ithttps://youtu.be/czh5evg77vQWhen startups burn cash faster than they learn | Ivan Makarov:https://youtu.be/EdTt2l89bUo996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRoLinks:https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/study-proves-being-rude-to-ai-chatbots-gets-better-results-than-being-nice-3269895/https://www.usg.edu/galileo/skills/unit07/internet07_02.phtmlhttps://futurism.com/altman-please-thanks-chatgpthttps://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/over-50-percent-internet-ai-slophttps://www.axios.com/2025/10/14/ai-generated-writing-humanshttps://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/16/sloponomics-who-wins-and-loses-in-the-ai-content-floodhttps://x.com/madhuraaa_/status/1978390720881819884https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/eat-what-you-killhttps://christophjanz.blogspot.com/2014/10/five-ways-to-build-100-million-business.htmlhttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-build-your-early-gtm-strategyhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/startups-investing-in-startups-peak-bubble-behaviorhttps://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/10/10/are-barefoot-shoes-good-for-runnershttps://x.com/ivanomaksf/status/1978852000298320068?s=46https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/uber-offers-drivers-extra-pay-to-perform-tasks-that-train-ai-7116401/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/is-ltv-to-cac-the-nickelback-of-metricshttps://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/final-2024-25-network-tv-ratings-tracker-high-potential-1236312223/https://christophjanz.blogspot.com/2014/10/five-ways-to-build-100-million-business.htmlhttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/ben-horowitz-hires-jensen-vercel-starts-venture-fundhttps://www.instagram.com/chasemytail/

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ, Kyle, and Ben start with Carl’s infamous “AWS from the car” rant before diving into a sharp, funny breakdown of corporate title inflation and the slow death of middle management. From “Founding BDRs” to self-proclaimed “VPs of vibes,” the crew dissects why org charts are flattening and how that changes leadership, accountability, and hiring. Then, in a classic Pricing Model Roast, they unpack why hybrid and usage-based models are both brilliant and broken, what outcome-based pricing gets wrong, and why take rates might secretly be the future. The trio closes with thoughts on momentum, AI urgency theater, and how to manage teams without burning them out—or yourself in the process.Timestamps:00:00 Carl from the Car on AWS01:04 Mostly Growth intro theme01:27 CJ’s flight back from LA (and the fake Wi-Fi warning)02:00 “I finally learned where Mississippi was”02:45 LA traffic and Nobu dinner with Ben04:08 Ben’s history lesson: why LA is a transportation nightmare06:34 “Clip it down” — segue to the main topic07:20 Title deflation and the death of middle management09:12 “Founding BDR” and generic LinkedIn titles11:00 The problem with VP title inflation12:31 The vanishing middle manager14:03 “Bonfire of the Middle Managers” and why it matters15:52 Shout-out to good managers everywhere18:00 Pricing Model Roast — lightning round19:49 Why hybrid pricing is the “best worst” model22:12 Usage vs. commitment pricing in the AI era25:09 Outcome-based pricing and cash-flow pain31:23 Take-rate pricing and marketplace dynamics33:29 Momentum is not a moat — but maybe it’s a boat36:22 How fast companies really move in AI38:38 Building urgency without burning out your team41:10 Business Partners: The LinkedIn follower illusion42:46 The optimal number of direct reports45:24 Pricing in the Real World — why book publishing is a scamEpisodes Referenced:The $1 Trillion AI Bubble: Nvidia, OpenAI, and the Feedback Loophttps://youtu.be/DMz-hC1K3BYDecoding the Psychology of Price in the Age of AI | Michael Staniszhttps://youtu.be/qNn9_07efN4996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRoLinks:https://x.com/shamusmadan/status/1978471423522840643/photo/1https://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/05/bonfire-of-the-middle-managershttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/7de0e352-fd0f-4f75-bc70-f1adaa483a4ahttps://investing101.substack.com/p/momentum-moathttps://www.amazon.com/Formula-Universal-Laws-Success/dp/0316505498https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kirbyman_how-do-you-build-a-moat-in-consumer-ai-you-activity-7376301424613363712-cB5p/https://x.com/joshua_xu_/status/1978837502787219578https://www.heygen.com/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23054911095&gbraid=0AAAAABiJW6bRhkaamVJe8PfOSFAoc1FHdhttps://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/18/how-many-reports-should-a-manager-have?giftId=a90f0234-f411-481f-98c7-c8f530ec33f9&utm_campaign=gifted_articlehttps://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191001-dunbars-number-why-we-can-only-maintain-150-relationships

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the question on everyone’s mind: are we in an AI bubble? What starts as a lighthearted riff on the U.S. Postal Service launching a podcast quickly spirals into a sharp, funny breakdown of today’s AI hype cycle — from Nvidia, OpenAI, and AMD trading money and GPUs in a trillion-dollar feedback loop, to startups burning cash chasing “AI-powered” everything. The trio share real examples of when AI helps and when it backfires (including one newsletter that totally tanked), debate whether companies are over-optimizing for automation, and laugh through the absurdity of the hype while grounding it in practical insights on product, finance, and growth.Timestamps:00:00 Preview and Intro00:14 Are We in an AI Bubble?00:44 The AI Money Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, AMD01:00 Perplexity, We Caught You02:18 The Postal Service Launches a Podcast04:24 How the Team Uses AI (and When It Fails)06:07 CJ’s DIY Dunning Disaster08:38 What AI Is Good At — and Where It Breaks10:49 Perplexity Tries to Gaslight Kyle13:27 AI vs. AI: Hacking Resume Screeners16:09 How Recruiters View AI-Generated Resumes17:17 CJ’s Chief of Staff Hiring Story19:15 The Data: Is AI Adoption Already Slowing?22:42 Crossing the Chasm: Early Adopters to Early Majority26:22 The Streaming Analogy and Forced AI Bundles28:49 The Circular AI Economy (Everyone Funding Everyone)31:15 Betting It All on AGI and Data Centers34:09 The Margin: AI Erotica and the Peak of the Bubble35:23 Business Blunders: OpenAI’s Token Leaderboard41:43 What Kyle Tried This Week: Building an AI Agent44:52 Wrap-Up and OutroEpisodes Referenced:5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers.Why Only 2% of Startups Make ItThe War for Talent is just getting started | Joe FloydLinks:https://usps-mailin-it.simplecast.com/https://i.imgflip.com/a92oy5.jpghttps://tabs.inc/webinar/tabs-agenthttps://substack.com/@kylepoyar/note/c-159017468?https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/business/ai-chatbot-prompts-resumes.html?_bhlid=1b5906cdc6781a738a150d9c32f846ebf11fc318https://substack.com/home/post/p-175615945https://ramp.com/data/ai-index?utm_source=econlab.substack.comhttps://medium.com/@samuelvandeth/crossing-the-chasm-162802d1cf27https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/1922669292929024017/photo/1https://kyla.substack.com/p/ai-is-the-market-and-the-market-is?r=cxcvo&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=truehttps://x.com/zerohedge/status/1977902195472322620?s=42https://topline.beehiiv.com/p/the-era-of-haves-and-have-notshttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd2qv58yl5ohttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_imagine-getting-called-into-your-cfos-office-activity-7381681514532458496-NOqa/https://fortune.com/2025/10/01/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-comeback-plan-bankruptcy/https://fortune.com/2024/11/13/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-says-endless-shrimp-is-never-coming-back/#https://www.relay.app/

CJ and Kyle kick things off celebrating their global rise to fame (#10 in Croatia) before diving into what it really takes to grow a podcast from scratch, why second place doesn’t matter in a winner-take-all world, and how only 2% of startups ever make it to $25M ARR—plus a Business Blunders detour into panels nobody wants, children’s play-place pricing gone wild, and the strange genius of The Wonder.Timestamps:00:00 Intro: Croatia & Rankings01:10 #10 in Croatia02:30 Growing the Pod04:05 Building an Audience05:22 Why Most Pods Die06:30 Finding Audience Fit07:42 Breaking Into the Top 409:15 No Guests, No Problem10:20 LinkedIn Beats TikTok11:18 Apple, Spotify, YouTube12:32 Top of Funnel Focus14:05 Referral & SEO Plays16:00 Second Place Doesn’t Count17:25 Winner Take All Economics19:10 Uber vs Lyft Example21:05 The 2% That Make It23:12 Be Niche or Die Trying25:00 Pick Fewer Channels27:50 Harder Than Harvard30:40 Business Blunders41:55 Pricing in the Real World46:00 Wrap Up: Mostly MembershipsEpisodes Referenced:How to Give a Killer Keynote (Without Having a Panic Attack)996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS ChaosWhy Founders Are Posting Sad DinnersCowboy Forecasting: The Power of Fast Informed Estimates on the Back of an Envelope5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers.Links:https://medium.com/@alasagilbert/90-of-podcasts-only-survive-their-first-3-episodes-heres-how-to-keep-yours-strong-sold-4e4466585b52https://web.archive.org/web/20060328070331/http://backend.userland.com/discuss/msgReader%24108?mode=dayhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_podcastinghttps://www.patriots.com/audio/unfiltered-podcast-archivehttps://topline.beehiiv.com/p/the-era-of-haves-and-have-notshttps://substack.com/@kylepoyar/note/c-159017468?https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kyle-poyar_new-data-from-6525-saas-startups-its-easier-activity-7382033365652348928-Afoohttps://thewonder.fun/memberships/https://www.park9dogbar.com/

Conference season is back, and CJ and Kyle are swapping stories from the stage—how to nail a keynote, whether conferences are worth the money, and why your walkout song matters more than you think. From there, they dig into a new a16z report revealing where AI startups are actually spending their dollars, and CJ shares results from his summer survey showing that CFOs talk a big game about measuring AI ROI—but nobody knows how to do it. The crew also unpacks how SaaS companies like Slack are bundling AI into their products and hiking prices, before spiraling into a late-night “potentially reliable” rabbit hole featuring a Soviet pole vaulter, beat-and-raise forecasting, and J. Edgar Hoover. They close with lessons on pricing in the real world (yes, Amsterdam’s architecture is involved) and one experiment CJ tried this week.Timestamps:00:00 Preview and Intro01:28 Walkout Songs & Kicking Off Conference Season03:39 How To Give a Great Keynote and Not Bore the Room10:10 Are Conferences Worth the Money14:21 What AI Companies Are Actually Paying For — The a16z Report20:08 Summer Survey Results: The Elusive ROI of AI25:45 Why No One Knows How To Measure ROI on AI29:03 SaaS Companies Forcing AI — Bundling, Pricing, and Pushback33:57 A Potentially Reliable Thing I Read at 2 AM35:00 Soviet Pole Vaulter, Beat-and-Raise Forecasting & Hoover’s Borders39:20 Pricing in the Real World — Lessons from Amsterdam’s Skinny Houses42:56 Something I Tried This Week — FixyerEpisodes Referenced:Are You Bad at LinkedIn… or Is the Algorithm Lying?Why Founders Are Posting Sad DinnersLinks:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrqSrpOfhWshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmH4iWoJfTohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1tl66trXTQhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPmAf5O8crohttps://www.getmobly.com/https://a16z.com/the-ai-application-spending-report-where-startup-dollars-really-go/https://d1lamhf6l6yk6d.cloudfront.net/uploads/2025/10/250923-B2B-Top-50-ILG-A-r6.pnghttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-nail-your-next-big-talkhttps://www.leahtharin.com/p/113-vincent-pierri-how-to-deal-withhttps://www.freepik.com/https://cluely.com/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/it-was-the-summer-of-25https://www.crescendo.ai/https://www.linkedin.com/posts/justintropic_slack-just-raised-prices-125-by-forcing-activity-7379132597009870848-XI6N/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/what-a-soviet-era-pole-vaulter-can-teach-us-about-beating-and-raisinghttps://www.nytimes.com/1972/05/03/archives/j-edgar-hoover-made-the-fbi-formidable-with-politics-publicity-and.htmlhttps://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/73vh2j/til_that_the_dutch_government_once_enforced_a_tax/https://www.clearspaceliving.com/blog/why-dutch-stairs-are-so-steep/https://mjwrightnz.wordpress.com/2012/10/28/amsterdams-taxing-narrow-houses/https://www.fyxer.com/