Claim OwnershipVan Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast
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Each week, KBRA's Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.
228 Episodes
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This week, our 3 Things are:1. Retail sales disconnect. It’s normalizing, but not as weak as the latest data.2. Labor’s lost leverage. More of the economic spoils are going to capital—is that a bad thing?3. Rising hyperscaler issuance. Massive new issue supply is forcing investors to rethink the status quo.
This week, our 3 Things are:Margin lift. They’re high and expected to go higher.Excitable risk. Volatility is back. Just how much matters to credit fundamentals?The path of interest rates. The consensus is calling for a 4-bp range for the 10-year over the next six quarters. What does that tell you?
This week, our 3 Things are:1. What we’re watching. Here’s what we believe will shape credit valuation over the near-term.2. Visa/Mastercard spending update. The latest read from the global payments titans. 3. KBRA DLD default forecasts. Our own Eric Rosenthal weighs in with his outlook for 2026.
This week, our 3 Things are:Bond vigilantes. Volatility has come to sovereign debt markets. What’s next?The cost of gloom. The Economist newspaper says it’s the world’s main economic risk. Biggest risks. Speaking of risk, here’s what market participants believe pose the biggest risk to market stability.
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Housing headwinds. Are we close to unlocking real value? 2. Big bank credit color. Where did the cockroaches go? 3. Supply surge. 2026 figures to see record-setting issuance. What does it mean for spreads?
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Economic tension. Underneath the Goldilocks data are a number of competing forces. 2. Fed decision-making. Changes are afoot. 3. Trigger points. Where does risk reprice?
This week, our 3 Things are:Oil glut. The price of the commodity has plunged and is likely to stay that way in 2026.Credit cycle. Phases are irregular, and the conditions for pushing into recession are dormant. 2026 themes. We tally up things worth watching.
This week, our 3 Things are:1. Spread wideners. Dormant forces have awakened. 2. Private credit color. Fresh views from Goldman’s financials conference. 3. 2026 risks. A better-than-expected 2025 is no reason for complacency.
This week, our 3 Things are:Coming tailwinds. Sizable stimulus is set to hit in 2026. Fed drama. It seeped into markets this week. Is it here to stay? Private credit data update. Some weakness as you would expect, but surprising fundamental strength. We’ll catch up with Bill Cox, KBRA’s Chief Rating Officer, on the topic.
This week, our 3 Things are:Home Depot’s warning. Consumer durability is under pressure.Private credit growth. Tracking leveraged finance growth is more relevant. AI bubble and credit. Much-needed perspective on the topic of the day.
This week, our 3 Things are:Holiday spending. Will the wealthiest among us offset the headwinds?Surging earnings. It’s more than just mega tech. Senior Loan Officer color. After Tricolor and First Brands, the Fed’s out with its latest survey.
This week, our 3 Things are:Private credit color. Two big lenders weigh in with what they are seeing.Reduced uncertainty. Wait a minute! There’s plenty of uncertainty, right? Consumer belt tightening. It’s spreading.
This week, our 3 Things are:Consumer no confidence. Surveys, for what they’re worth, are headed in the wrong direction. Credit course correction. Lenders everywhere are scrubbing portfolios and processes. That comes at a cost. To cut or not to cut. All of a sudden, December’s in play.
This week, our 3 Things are:GM blowout. What does this signal about the broader economy? U.S. consumer. We’ve got useful updates on loan quality and spending strength. Bubbles. The chatter is increasing. We’ve got some thoughts.
This week, our 3 Things are:Cycle turn? Lots of press this week on credit deterioration. How real is it?Big bank credit color. It’s an important counterpoint to our first Thing.Oil’s price drop. That’s good for consumers and businesses, right? Well …
This week, our 3 Things are:Credit “froth.” How real is it? Growth quality. The outlook is brighter, but is it vulnerable?Q3 earnings. A solid headline growth number, but weakness underneath.
This week, our 3 Things are:
Inflation target. It’s quietly slipping.
Bond scarcity. Demand versus supply.
Capex supercycle. We’ll compare equity versus debt.
This week, our 3 Things are:
Maximum employment. What does that have to do with unemployment?
Retail therapy. We peel the onion on a strong retail sales report.
Risk versus uncertainty. The difference explains risk market moves.
This week, our 3 Things are:
Credit’s durability. Why has the asset class held up so well in 2025?
Risk concentrations. A couple are noteworthy and worth monitoring.
Distressed debt exchanges. We highlight a new report by Ed Altman and our own Eric Rosenthal.
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. Economic lines of defense. There are significant countervailing forces to slowdown.
2. Q3 earnings. Still positive growth in the face of rising costs.
3. Jobs revisions. The most important jobs data point this month might be next week, not Friday’s.
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