Barclays Brief

Markets began 2026 expecting interest rate cuts. Instead, investors have faced a sharp repricing in bond markets, with the US 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% and growing debate around whether policy may need to remain restrictive for longer.In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey speaks with Dan Orlando, Head of US Rates Trading, about one of the most important questions facing investors today: why has the US economy remained so resilient despite elevated yields and restrictive monetary policy?The discussion explores what has driven the recent move higher in Treasury yields, how investors are reassessing the outlook for interest rates, and why this cycle appears different from previous periods of monetary tightening. Orlando explains how a surge in AI-related capital expenditure and data centre investment is helping support economic activity, potentially reducing the impact that higher borrowing costs would normally have on growth.The conversation also examines the housing market, Treasury buybacks, investor positioning and why developments in US rates increasingly need to be viewed through a global lens as bond markets across the US, Europe and Japan continue to move together.For investors, the key issue is not simply whether rates remain higher for longer, but whether restrictive policy is having the same effect on economic activity that it has in previous cycles, and what that could mean for markets if growth continues to prove resilient.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:The dog that did not bark for nowUnited States: Interest Rates: On the brinkListeners can also explore the topic further:Ep 47: The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Energy RaceEp 42: AI credit supply tests market capacity Ep 41: Challenging market consensusEp 40: Cooling the AI buildout Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

Markets are fixating on the billions being invested in AI. But a second massive investment story related to energy is emerging and investors need to pay attention.In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey speaks with Harry Mateer, Head of Americas FICC Research at Barclays, about why energy could become one of the defining macro themes of the coming decade. As energy security concerns persist, economies electrify and AI accelerates demand for power, the world must build and maintain multiple energy systems at once, requiring investment on a scale markets may be underestimating.Mateer explains why demand is growing across virtually every major energy source, why annual energy investment could reach roughly $3.6 trillion, and how a global shift towards resilience and reliability is changing the way governments, companies and investors think about energy. The discussion explores which regions are best positioned for this new era, the implications for inflation, and why energy can be viewed as a growth opportunity rather than a traditional value sector.For investors, the global energy race is about far more than oil, gas or renewables. It is a multi-trillion-dollar competition for capital, infrastructure and strategic advantage that could reshape the global economy for decades to come.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:•The global energy race: Energy in the age of fragmentationListeners can also explore the topic further:Impact Series #15 The global energy raceEp 45: Nuclear fusion: Tomorrow's solution to today's problem​Ep 42: AI credit supply tests market capacityEp 40: Cooling the AI buildoutEp25: The cusp of a capex supercycleImpact Series #13 AI revolution: Meeting massive AI infrastructure demandsImportant Content Disclosures

European equities have been one of the standout market stories of the year. Despite trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent questions about growth, the region has delivered unexpectedly strong equity performance, challenging assumptions about where investors can find opportunity.In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey speaks to Emmanuel Cau, Head of European & Asia Equity Strategy, about what’s driving this resilience. They explore the convergence of several tailwinds, including stronger-than-expected growth, a boom in manufacturing and investment, and renewed demand for diversification beyond large-cap technology stocks.The discussion also examines why earnings growth is becoming increasingly important in a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment. Cau also challenges the idea that Europe is merely an anti-AI trade, highlighting how the region is benefiting from the broader AI investment cycle.Looking ahead, they discuss the factors that could determine whether Europe's strong equity performance continues, including the role of banks, the outlook for earnings, and the geopolitical and energy-related risks investors need to watch.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:•Earnings Season Watch: Learnings from Q2 earnings – higher for longer •Equity Market Review: US cools, Europe heats up•European Equity Strategy: France – Deficits, elections and déjà vu Listeners can also explore the topic further:• European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide •Metals & mining: meltdown or opportunity?•AI goes economy-wideImportant Content Disclosures

Nuclear fusion has long been viewed as a transformational energy breakthrough, capable of delivering abundant, zero-carbon at operation energy by recreating the same reaction that powers the sun. Recently, a series of scientific milestones, rising electricity demands and the global competition for energy have moved the conversation from theoretical possibility towards commercial reality.​In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Jordan Isvy, Sustainable Investing Research Analyst, joins Patrick Coffey, Global Head of Product Management Group, Research, to explain the science behind fusion, the challenges on the path to commercial deployment and timelines for adoption. They explore the factors driving the focus on fusion, including AI-driven demand, and where progress is accelerating across the globe. ​For investors, the opportunity may begin long before fusion reaches the grid. The discussion covers emerging opportunities across the value chain and what a future powered by nuclear fusion could look like.​Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​Fusion: Tomorrow's solution to today's problem​Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:​Ep 40 Cooling the AI buildout​Ep 31 Inflation crosscurrents: Energy vs AI​Ep 26 The quantum computing moment ​Important Content Disclosures​Important Non-Research Content Disclosures​Barclays provides financial services to a range of sectors including high-emitting industries such as oil and gas. We’re working to reduce the emissions we finance and support clients in the transition; for​ more information visit home.barclays/climatechange​

Little more than a week ago, a rare, coordinated US-Japan intervention to support the yen caught investors’ attention. Coupled with rising expectations of another Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal agenda, the country appears to be undergoing a profound transition, bringing new questions for investors around the world.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey and Yoichi Takemura, Head of Macro Trading, Japan, explore what Japan's economic normalisation may mean for investors and markets worldwide. This discussion goes well beyond the currency; from interest rates to capital flows, investors are increasingly focused on how Japan's policy shift could influence markets around the world.As policymakers balance growth, inflation, currency stability and public finances, investors are paying closer attention to developments in Japan. The question is not simply where the yen goes next, but how one of the world's largest economies navigates a very different environment from the one it has known for decades.Listeners can also hear more episodes on this topic:Ep 39 Opportunities in Asian EquitiesEp 18 Japan decides, global markets moveClients can read more on Barclays Live:Our call for next rate hike frontloaded to September with latest BoJ summaryScope for increasing retail JGB investmentJPY: Joint intervention to the rescueThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.Important Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures