Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge 1st March 2026 – AI, Politics and Populism, Luddites and Social Revolution“You say you want a revolution, well, you know we all wanna change the world..”As the US and Israel attack Iran, confirming the Fire Horse threat of escalating conflict risks, do we also face a second social threat from AI triggering widespread social and wealth-inequality protests? Does 2026 risk becoming a double whammy hit on market sentiment and confidence?I am cheating this morning. This morning’s Porridge was written on Saturday – before I jumped on a plane for a week on Sunday morning to go skiing in Italy. As War has broken out in the Middle East I’ll have the full laptop suite with me in case it gets hairier than Trump expects… First thing to note is Bitcoin crashed on higher risk.I warned a few weeks ago how “Fire Horse Years” (according to the Chinese Zodiac) can be volatile and explosive, this one occurring in conjunction with a 2K (2 Kondratieff Cycle) period of hegemonic challenge – and the elevated likelihood of associated conflict as the USA and China square off. The rising tide of conflict in the Middle East highlights the risks.But, what if we are also going through an acute societal shift, which could trigger social unrest?There is an apocryphal story set in the near future where a starship built around a super-AI is crewed by three humans and a dog. The ship traverses the vastness of the galaxy to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to go boldly where no dog has gone before. (No split infinitives in the Morning Porridge!)The humans are there to feed and exercise the dog.How is AI going to change the world? Do we face civilisational erasure as a result of its’ quadratically expanding god-like power? Will we be replaced or become pods in some Matrix like future. Or will AI’s phenomenal access to information and our intellect lead to a fulfilling partnership between Man and Machine.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fed 25th, 2026: What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?“When there is a lack of honour in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.My ambition is to keep learning new stuff. Like this morning’s quote – from Herbert Hoover.One of the things I enjoy most is sharing my experience of how markets work in practice. Aside from my careless Desmond (a Tutu) in Economics, my only qualifications to do so are gleaned from surviving 40 years in financial markets. My great delight is my honorary professorship at the Edinburgh Business School (which I suspect was because they felt I deserved a B+ for effort), but I have few academic chops as a great thinker or as a theoretical economist.However, I do think markets, economics, and politics make a curious kind of sense, and if you dig deep enough…. it’s even possible to explain them and figure them out!Yesterday I had the great pleasure to give a guest lecture on the bond markets to a classroom of American PhD Students at Brown University in New England (via Zoom). They are taking a class on the International Political Economy of Global Finance. It’s a fascinating course, run by my great chum, fellow-Scot, and genuine academic thinker, Professor Mark Blyth.Mark is a guy who takes a deep interest in how complex things work. He picks them apart and asks difficult questions like why? He’s now applying that intellectual curiosity to take students deep into the foundations, architecture and plumbing of international finance. I’ve looked at the syllabus and if I had the time, I’d take the course myself – because it’s good to see ourselves as other see us, and wonder if there are better ways to think about the world, and how to action it.The fact I got asked a lash of questions following my lecture was an added bonus.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 24th, 2026: Iran could be the flashpoint for market dislocation“Do not defy the fates and bring shame on Rome.”Markets aren’t much concerned about Iran. US Military might is expected to prevail, cowing the Ayatollahs into acceptance of Trump’s maximalist demands. What could possibly go wrong? Trump is no student of history, and may not understand the gamut of military, logistical and geopolitical risks aligned against him.Does the markets’ fixation on AI mean they are missing what might be main event? In 53 BC Marcus Licinius Crassus, the senior member of the Roman Triumvirate (and richest man in Rome) was nervous of Caesar’s rising popularity from his military successes in Gaul. Crassus led the 7 legions of the Eastern Army into the desert to restore and enhance his own military lustre – incidentally a move made without the approval of the Senate and People of Rome (“SPQR”).  His army was annihilated by Persian heavy cavalry and horse archers at the Battle of Carrhae. Glancing through the stock market commentaries this morning the noise is all about the end of the first soft “industrial” age; the collapse in software stocks – dinosaurs replaced by evolved AI. Investors are wondering how much more damage AI will inflict upon businesses. Every firm that employs folk to actually think is at risk. How the global economy evolves as a result of AI will have profound market implications tomorrow – but today the imminent threat might be elsewhere. Markets are often blind. Analysts are pitching investment strategies bar-belling the soft side of the economy in terms of hyperscalers and industrials for the hard stuff, while shorting the soft middle. Next up in the tumbril for the AI guillotine will be banks and investment managers, because AI is going to do it all so much better. Quite who the AI Revolution is going to leave in a job, earning enough money to actually consume anything in this new economy, is…. unclear.Maybe put that stuff aside for a moment.  Today? Buy missile producers, buy tank makers, buy weapons. We might be about to get a thumping great lesson in logistical facts, economic reality, and geopolitical shifts. Let me explain in a word: Iran.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 23rd, 2026 – Private Credit and Treasury Wobbles... Relax….“Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the show?”Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!An interesting week’s play in prospect for global markets this Monday morning. There was a distinct judder moment on Friday after the US Supreme Court declared Trump’s emergency tariffs were unconstitutional. He didn’t react well. The markets shrugged and wondered… Where do we go from here?I suspect the driving theme for the week with be elevated fears on bonds and credit markets, and how swiftly risks and concerns are jumping the gap to cross-contaminate between bond and equity markets.How will markets react to Trump’s tariff SNAFU? Weren’t tariffs going to pay off the USA’s $38 trillion debt? (No – they were not!)How will markets react to the wobble-signs from the private credit markets as Blue Owl acts to control retail redemptions on certain funds – while sharks, in the guise of SABA (Boas Weinstein) get ready to pounce with a 35% discount offer to NAV. Could private credit trigger a credit/liquidity crunch?The fact lending to software companies (hammered by AI threats) is at the core of the Blue Owl lending concerns highlights the circularity of markets and that credit lending is as much about risk as equities!How will these forces inter-relate with all market noise around geopolitics, AI, liquidity, politics, Iran and the growing sense of instability that seems to pervade everything? Cheer up – as I’ll scribble at the end of this Porridge, Life is Still Good. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Jan 20th, 2026: Corruption and Justice – Action Required.“America may be blind, but the world will see who is involved and complicit.”The difference between successful democratic economies and autocracy is that the rule of law works better. Autocracies trend towards corruption and inefficiency. Insider dealing and corruption is a fact of the financial markets – punishing it is a matter of the enforcement of justice and the willingness to do so. Europe is acting over Epstein. What’s happening in the USA?  Friday is rant day. I can say what has to be said. Over the weekend I’ll be digging into the implications of Blue Owl gating its Alternative funds, and if that’s the Bear Stearns Moment warning of ructions ahead for Private Credit markets.Investment is an exceptionally complex business. There are multiple considerations in terms of the risk/reward profile of any deal. The probabilities of success versus the likelihood of misadventure must be checked and reconciled against contracts, credit and data. Analysts dissect company accounts, statements and information on the parties to the trade. Lawyers have become MVPs (most valuable players) because successful investments are built upon a framework of law and order. While a gentleman’s word may be worth something in terms of the credibility to open doors, and trust is fundamental in any deal discussions, without the backing of sound contracts, strong legal systems, and the enforcement of justice – you are just gambling versus human avarice. The strength of the judicial system is a critical support and consideration in any deal.History shows the economies of nations with strong and fair judicial systems tend to perform more strongly than autocratic states, where the old adage absolute power corrupts absolutely oft proves the case, leading to widespread corruption and underperformance across the whole economy.Yesterday was a WTF day in the UK. It’s not every day a Prince of the Blood is hauled off thru Traitor’s Gate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 19th, 2026 – Tariffs hoist Trump on his own Petard“And I would have gotten away with it, if it wasn’t for these pesky kids...”Sometimes you have to laugh. Tariffs have been the cornerstone of Trump’s economic miracle, allowing him to deflect, discombobulate and distract voters from economic truths. Now the NY Fed says tariffs are a consumption tax – even MAGA voters will be worried as the Mid-Terms approach.I reckon a fair number of Porridge Readers will remember Scooby-Do….Donald Trump is the evil financial-economic genius planning the ultimate political heist. His cunning plan to ensure a MAGA landslide in the Mid-Terms, just 8 months away, was utterly brilliant. Slap tariffs on everything and tell the American the people the economy was booming because of them. Keep telling them that till they believed it. The bigger the lie, the better it sounds. Brag about big foreign investments. Boast about new factories – as yet unbuilt. I particularly admired the brazen promise to increase US defence spending by 50% on the back of the unlimited bounty off tariff income.Then wait. And in March, just as the political campaign season kicks into high gear, he’s going to tell the people tariffs have been so successful and so biggly restored global respect for the USA that he’s able to cancel them. By removing what is a massive consumption tax on the US economy he will generate a deflationary spike and an economic boom that will peak around election day. Foreign leaders will praise his munificence.As I said – genius of the highest order… If it wasn’t for the pesky kids at the New York Fed…You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 18th, 2026 – Defence Spending, Resilience and Growth“To save the village it was necessary to destroy it.”The Russians have captured the FT, apparently! The headline that Gilts are about to crash because the Government will borrow more to increase defence spending is Pravda 101. The reality is Gilts should rally on increasing the strategic deterrence that defence spending will create.If you wish for peace, be prepared for war. Strategic Deterrence is the most valuable form of infrastructure a nation can possess.There is a worrying story in the FT this morning – “Gilt investors warn about “ruse” to fund higher UK defence spending.” It goes on to describe a potential backlash and “self-defeating” rise in borrowing costs if the Government tries to spend more on defence by issuing more debt. I had to check the byline – has the Pink-Un been bought by one of Putin’s oligarchs?The story caught my interest for a number of reasons. I guess the journalists needed a story to counter UK Premier Sir Keir Starmer saying something sensible. Yesterday, he said he’s going to move faster to increase defence spending – wow, I’ve always believed Starmer means well, so it’s great to see him do something right. (But, as a chum said last night; give him a few months to fret about how to increase defence spending to 3% by 2029 without upsetting the bond market and Labour’s left-wing, and spending might even decline!)The FT article cites a “leading investor” saying “I’m not the sure the bond market would like it.” Another said the market would be “sceptical about a carve-out”. Beats me how these guys are sitting in senior investment management roles – surely, they realise their investments in Gilts and the UK are likely to be made more secure by spending that discourages the Russians (or whomever else) attacking us? Perhaps not….  (I’ll come back to that below.)A few weeks ago, one of my chums in the Labour Party let slip the Government’s 10-year Defence Investment Plan is being delayed in the hope of peace in Ukraine. The thinking is simple; if Trump can force a “ceasefire”, then the immediate need for rearmament diminishes, putting less pressure on Treasury to find money immediately for guns, and giving Starmer some funds to placate the left-wingers clamouring for more on the butter of welfare spending!One of the most basic duties of any state is defence. It’s a complex two-part problem that goes beyond the guns or butter paradox:The first is paying for defence – which the UK is currently failing. Not because we don’t spend enough, but because we spend it badly!The second issue is making sure the nation is prepared to defend itself by being willing to fight. That’s more nuanced. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 17th, 2026: Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse.“We must build our hard power, for that is the currency of the age.”The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations of global demand and markets.  Happy Chinese Lunar New Year. Good luck and good fortune to all readers of the Porridge in The Year of the Fire Horse.History tells us things can get fruity in Fire Horse years – which occur every 60 years on the Chinese Zodiac. That’s a significant measure of time: a single 60-year Kondratieff long-term economic cycle encompasses the incredible economic change, tech evolution and growth we’ve seen since the 1960s. Periods of hegemonic challenge (which raise substantial conflict risks) typically occur every 100-120 years – the 2K cycle - which is pretty much where the timeline also is today as the USA and China butt against each other.China has become the most significant challenge to the USA’s era as the undisputed global hegemon and economic superpower. It happens at a time of increased political instability as Western economies struggle with inequalities and the rise of populism (including the challenges of Donald Trump’s second presidency), the consequence of underinvestment in deterrence, but also at a time of acute social change and external challenges (climate change, migration, et al), and all during a time when competition in global markets is reaching fever pitch.Hegemonic change doesn’t have to happen in terms of war and conflict but also occurs when previously dominant powers see their economic position challenged, and their industrial/business base surpassed. Tired economies define most end of empire scenarios – and explains why Great Britain gradually faded away after the First World War.Put all these random bits together; political ineffectiveness and polarisation, rising social grievances and tension arounds jobs, housing, and inequality (of income, opportunity and justice),  and the dramatic competitive technology and economic shifts (which may increase social division by dispensing with jobs) that are occurring. Then sprinkle the risks of war on top of that… and it’s a not a pretty world we live in.Of course, it hasn’t helped that Trump’s vision for America has necessarily called for a reduction in the costs of its global responsibilities – hence the bust-up with Europe. It could have been done better and without the angst.What’s done is done…  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Very Late Morning Porridge Feb 16th 2026 – Sliding, Jambos and Rugby, Sports that matter“He’s kicked that one so high it’s come down with a touch of frost on it..”The world may be going to hell in a handbasket, and tomorrow is the start of the Year of the Fire-Horse (the most volatile of the 60-year Chinese zodiac cycle) but what a fantastic weekend of sports we just had. It’s all positive stuff… Let’s enjoy it while we can.Apologies for the very late Morning Porridge this morning after a very early flight back from Edinburgh. Tomorrow there will be a full breakdown on the market implications of ‘who-said-what-but-meant-that” at the Munich Security Conference and what’s afoot in AI stocks, but this morning… let’s enjoy the good things in life and talk about sports, their influence and importance, whether it be in Olympic gold in Skeleton, Football, or Scotland’s magnificent win on Saturday in the 6 Nations Rugby at Murrayfield.Sports matter – not just in terms of the potential opportunities to monetise sporting success (of which there are many), but also in terms of concepts such as soft power and belief, and how that can influence sentiment and growth. After Saturday’s win I was a one-man economic boom-time in Edinburgh’s hostelries on Saturday. Might oak-trees stem from little acorns, and small sporting successes can make small nations mightier yet.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 11th, 2026 – The Munich Conference and Global Threats “What do you worry about?” … “Events, dear boy, events.”There are times when the course of history takes on a momentum of its own, most often in periods of conflict around hegemonic change – as exist today. This year’s Munich Security Conference will address stressed and fractured global alliances – while markets should be figuring out how conflict risks have risen and potential outcomes worsened. Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference (which opens later this week) is a former German Ambassador to the USA. He doesn’t pull any punches in its 2026 report; “Under Destruction”. (Use the link to read it – it’s blunt, to-the-point and highly informative.)  The report defines how “wrecking-ball politics” have favoured the destruction of current institutions and alliances, and trampled opportunities for reform. It pulls no punches blaming Donald Trump’s new America for the destabilisation of long-term alliances. In many ways it’s a response to JD Vance’s arrogance at last year’s conference where he slammed Europe as anti-democratic while failing to call out Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.  In the space of just over a year the World has utterly changed. Confidence in NATO, the transatlantic economy, and global order have been overturned. Apologists for Trump – and there will be plenty of wealthy American businessmen, financiers and technologists in attendance who have nailed their colours to his mast – will say Trump has achieved great things by forcing Europe to take responsibility for its own defence, and rumours of the death of the alliance are over exaggerated.They are not.These apologists have less to say about the long-term consequences for the global economy and markets from Trump’s disregard for the rules of law, his threats to allies, his autocratic bent and his appeasement of Putin. In 12 months, he has destroyed (I was going to write undermined but why pull punches) the previous faith and confidence Europe had in America.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 10th, 2026 – Bond Market Alarm Bells Sounding“Feche le vache..”Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong? 100-year Sterling bonds from Google? Wow. That’s…. interesting. (Ding, Ding, Ding…. Bond market alarms going off very loudly in my head.)What do the buyers of that Century bond know that we don’t? There are so many reasons not to buy a corporate Century bond – but clearly there is demand for them. I’ll come back to 100-year bonds below, but the succession of massive public (and private) AI Hyperscale debt deals to fund the datacentre build out has had my bond spidey-senses on edge for some time now.Google’s century bonds y’day sent them into overdrive.The sheer volume of debt being raised for AI is off the historical scale. There are estimates of $700-900 bln of funding to be raised by the Hyperscalers this year. Google raised $20 bln of its announced $185 bln 2026 funding ask yesterday. Oracle attracted a $130 bln order book for a recent $25 bln deal – despite many market analysts fearful of its weak financials, over-stretched debt profile, and reliance on OpenAI being able to pay the leases on its compute. Amazon and Microsoft are in the market funding as much as they can.Some say $3 trillion will be raised over 5 years. It’s extraordinary, but apparently, it’s not a problem because these are some of America’s largest and most successful companies – what can possibly go wrong? (Why did Enron, WorldCom, WaMu and the big 3 Autos just flash through my memory?)Recently I’ve written about the potential of a Corporate Bond Burp – not necessarily a complete credit meltdown, but a market that’s got ahead of itself that’s about to suffer chronic indigestion. The “Burp” is the warning it’s all about to happen – that the underlying assumptions behind a trade or a wider rally were mis-founded.Reasons for suspecting a Bond-Burp is imminent include the circularity arguments around AI firms funding and backing each other through datacentre leases and compute, the historically tight credit spreads in the corporate markets, and multiple questions about what is supporting what in the complex debt ecosystem.Should I be worried?

Blain’s Morning Porridge Part 2 Feb 9th, 2026 – The Conflabulation that is Bitcoin finally dies in a pool of disinterest.“Rat Poison Squared”Well, it was interesting while it lasted. Bitcoin has given me plenty to write about these last 15 years. Up, down, up, down, and shake it all about. This tumble feels different. No one is trying to seriously defend it. The walls are down and Bitcoin may be about to vanish in a puff of logic… or will it? Once you have them, Cockroaches are extremely difficult to exterminate.It’s a special day indeed… 2 Morning Porridges. That’s unusual. I’ve been meaning to write about the collapsing Bitcoin conflabulation for days, but important stuff has been happening.History is littered with sudden collapses. Seemingly invulnerable fortresses suddenly fall to a gaggle of rag-tag guerillas, empires tumble overnight, and dictators are omnipotent one moment and dead in a ditch the next. It might be the same for Bitcoin. It feels like the wind has completely gone from its sails.“So apart from that Cathy, how’s your wallet?”Just over a year ago… it felt very different. November 4th, 2024, was a bad day for my personal wealth. Having faith in America, I’d convinced myself Kamela Harris could win the US presidency – despite her obvious limitations. I was in Washington, and went into the election with large, levered shorts on Tesla and Bitcoin, expecting both to tumble when Trump lost. I was wrong and both rallied spectacularly. My positions were both wiped out. Trump had promised us the future was Crypto and he would make it so…I knew the risk and shrugged. You win some, you lose some. But…. what goes around, comes around.This morning the world has already forgotten its shocked bewilderment that Trump posted Obama as a monkey on Truth-Social last week. Someone else will take the blame. There will be little in the way of a reckoning or punishment. He has turned insult and grift into an art form. And he cares little for crypto – made him rich but who cares? Last week we were reading about Abu Dhabi quietly buying 49% of Trump’s crypto venture, and we shrugged. Trump ain’t daft – he’s spread the risks of his efforts to cryptonise the US economy to his own personal benefit.Today, the world feels distinctly meh about BTC.  I feel a bit like a Canadian seal-clubber as I write about Bitcoin … these sad-eyed millennials and GenZs wondering why they aren’t rich… but Trump is? I almost feel sorry for them as I swing the club, telling them; “you’ve naebody to blame but yerself.” Thwack!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Part 1 Feb 9th, 2026 – Fire Horses, UK Bond Risk, Conflict Risk, and Emperor’s New Clothes Risk!“Knuckles to Buckles”The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on. What can possibly go wrong…..?This is Part One of the Morning Porridge – there will be a later mid-morning comment on Bitcoin to follow (if I get time to finish it.)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 5th, 2026 – Navigating the stormy seas of Tech“The worst thing you can do is nothing.”Where are the Tech markets and AI heading? Are we due a meltdown or melt-up? Will the bubble bust, or do the current ructions reflect growing uncertainty on which directions upside lies? There is plenty to consider when trying to predict where AI and Tech eventually go.What we do know is AI will change the world, and technology is constantly evolving. To play markets, we need to take a view. Doing nothing is not an option.It’s been a funny old market in tech these last few days – as volatile as broken glass is sharp, as unpredictable as Brownian Motion in a teacup. Strip away the noise and fear around the potential quietus for Oracle on its unsustainable debt burden, how few chips Nvidia might now sell, how much infrastructure OpenAI may never build, or how far down the wrong roads Microsoft has travelled, or how Google will own us all, and try figure out exactly how much the AI revolution will change the world.Because it will.There are broadly three things to think about:

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 4th, 2026 – Is Epstein just the tip of the Iceberg?“Chaos is a smokescreen for corruption.”We will likely never know the full truth about Epstein. It’s not a sex scandal – it’s a sordid tale of corruption, insider dealing, greed and arrogance dug deep into the highest echelons of business and society. It involves far more figures than the few who have been exposed. Some corruption is hidden. Increasingly much is in plain sight.There are dark secrets about our society we would rather keep quiet, pretending they don’t happen. But the truth has a habit of seeping out... a trickle of insinuations can swiftly become a bombshell of facts.There is just such a ticking bomb beneath the façade of the Anglo-Saxon Economy fizzling away. It threatens to crack-open swathes of business, finance and politics. Denizens of the “blob”, the “swamp”, the “establishment”, or whatever entitled group of powerful folk who think they run the country are called, they will be nervous – who will be exposed next?Nobody has ever been able, or more correctly, willing to explain just how Jeffrey Epstein became so wealthy, so well-connected, so powerful, but such a threat he was removed from the board…. with extreme prejudice when the cameras trained on his cell “failed”.The revelations from the latest batch of the Epstein files suggest a much deeper scandal is in prospect. It’s no longer just a sordid tale of a perverted paedophile, abused women, and the reputational threat to those who partook of the pleasures he provided on his Island. Now it’s about a network that smells of financial corruption, insider dealing, greed and raw power.And that is going to make electorates very angry and shake their confidence in the system.It’s increasingly clear how Epstein’s web leveraged power, knowledge, and wealth from the contacts and friendships he cultivated and corrupted. The sex and abuse were just elements; tools he used to achieve his goals and to obtain valuable information.Epstein’s “business” was based in exploiting the culture of arrogance, entitlement, and the expectation they will always get away with it, that has always existed at the top end of society since we climbed down from the trees. He nurtured his portfolio of the great and the good to garner the information, access and insider status that informed and enabled his “investment” successes. 

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 3, 2026 – We have to talk about Kevin… “I would say [Fed Policy] has been in some sense Reverse Robin Hood.”The nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair has been rationalised as positive for stability and managing Trump. But will a new name on the desk means certainty will return? Nothing really changed within the Administration – Trump remains Trump and has a massive War Chest to fight the coming bitter Midterms.There was a relieved nodding of heads when Kevin Warsh was announced as Trump’s nominee for the Chair of the Federal Reserve last week. Most Fed watchers immediately spotted the multiple inconsistencies swirling around the appointment – and sought to rationalise them in a positive fashion. Warsh is an inflation hawk highly critical of QE (the manipulation of interest rates), who wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet, while Trump wants a submissive Fed Chair who will ease, ease and ease.The consensus swiftly emerged of how Trump had been “persuaded” to appoint a credible Fed Chair, concluding Warsh has the necessary “people” skills to “manage” Trump’s assaults on the Fed’s independence and the potential damage he can do to America’s financial standing, the dollar and, critically, the Treasury market.Warsh is already squaring the problematic hawk vs dove circle by arguing the massive productivity gains AI is going to create will allow lower rates. (He says he’s focused on Data, but AI gains are, thus far, largely anecdotal.) How is that going to play out if the AI boom fizzles and an Oracle debt crisis triggers a run? (That will be an interesting one for Warsh to explain. Who knew the Fed Chair’s primary function would be to manage the President’s monetary policy demands? That authoritarianism 101.)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2, 2026 – Skating on very thin ice… Let’s paint the town, we’ll shut it down…. Just how thick is the ice? Everything juddered last week – from AI to perceptions of Geopolitics. There are so many take aways. Are markets vulnerable to an AI/Credit Cascade event? How vulnerable are The Middle Nations (J-CAKE). China is a rising risk. Just how well will the USA handle a crisis? Is it time to exit Gold? But go where?As has been said many times before: “there are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen.” The World is a complex place. I got a feeling… we are skating on very thin ice indeed.Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge last week. I was at the annual Interbourse Ski Week with some 400 other market folk. There was plenty to talk about. I listened, watched, and now I’m trying to draw some conclusions – which ain’t easy when there is so much to consider.  Experience teaches wobbles and crashes are exciting and often expensive… but markets swiftly bounce back stronger. Since 2010 a whole market generation has grown up believing in the Fed Put, convinced any market threat will be averted by bailouts and support, thus every price tumble isn’t analysed for lessons to be learnt, but is simply seen as a buy-the-dip opportunity.If we are in for a correction…. this time might be different. In the past traders, investors, governments, treasuries, central banks have all been professionally aligned and determined to create solutions and foster stability. That’s no longer a given. There is less sense of doing the right thing for the sake of doing that right thing… Today it feels more about self-interest, which is incompatible with trust – a fundamental driver of stable markets.What are the critical points for markets to think about:You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 26th, 2026 – It’s not about Trump, it’s about China and Europe“Europe loves to talk about the future but does nothing about it today.”Gold surges through $5000 and markets remain distracted by the sturm et drang of words and events. The world is changing – but are we thinking about all the wrong things? The real issue for the future may be investment choices between authoritarian states vs nimble democratic nations. This morning Gold spot is $5060. Investment banks and commodity research firms had a $4900 year-end target. It’s taken less than a month. Goldman has hiked its 2026 yellow-metal target to $5400. (The way things are going, we’ll be through that by March.)Gold is a reliable measure of risk. The really interesting thing is how the 10-yr US Treasury Yield jumped 10 bp last week, and remains in the 4.20-25% range. In bond markets there is truth – Treasuries have decoupled from gold, meaning they no longer look such a safe-haven asset in a time of escalating tension. The world’s view of risk and safe havens has changed and changed utterly.This week’s delivery of the Morning Porridge might be a bit random. I’m in Austria, taking part in Interbourse, a celebration of skiing and markets with over 400 finance professionals from across Europe and North America having a tremendous time on the slopes. The great thing about any industry social event is meeting folk – and hearing what they really think.The consensus on piste (and bars) is the world is changing and less predictable. I’ve chatted with a leading Brexiteer who now admits the UK leaving the EU was a strategic disaster. Lots of people are praising Mark Carnery as the global voice of rational reason. Zelensky’s talk at Davos is seen as a wake-up call to Europe (essentially saying the same as Trump, but with credibility!) There are supporters of the US President – although most admit his multiple flaws – arguing with much good sense that Trump is a necessary evil as a catalyst for the rejuvenation of America. Europeans do not hate Americans – they love them – but are deeply concerned about why the Trump administrations so despises them, and by what is happening domestically. Europe and Democrats are not the enemy.Being market professionals – we’re all trying to figure out how the world is changing, where shifting geopolitics will lead, and what will it mean for future investments, prices and growth. If I knew the answer to these questions, I’d be staying in a more expensive hotel!You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, 22nd January 2026: What A Disaster – That Was The End Of The American Century“If you are not at table, you are on the menu.”Yesterday was a strategic disaster for America. Trump and his minions have destroyed the alliances that underpinned American exceptionalism. He revealed as weak and venal; an old man lost in rambling hatreds. America now faces a scrabble to save face and recover a modicum of respect. The medium-to-long term market implications are huge.Wow. Yesterday in Davos was just horrible to behold.Yet, all that global markets heard was Trump saying he would not use force to seize Greenland and promptly bounced higher.Don’t be fooled. That was a knee-jerk reaction, a dead-cat political market bounce. The situation is anything but fixed. What has been said will not be forgotten. The damage to America’s global standing is irreparable while Trump and his ilk run America – and even after it will take time for wounds to heel. The World is changing course, and Trump’s hands are nowhere near the steering wheel. Mark Carney, premier of Canda earlier summed it up: “this is rupture, not a transition.”You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge January 21st, 2026 – Beware the Judder Moment in Bonds“A pebble falling down a mountain in Japan may trigger momentous events in Nuuk.”Trump dominates the headlines but watch what’s happening in the bond markets. Yesterday Japan bond yields juddered a warning about political competency risks, but also how rising geopolitical and conflict risks are resetting investor expectations. When the bond market speaks, you ought to listen. Plus, Air Force One, Bitcoin and Howard Lutnick.In Bond markets there is truth – as shall be revealed below. In Trump… less so.Trump, Trump, Trump… He utterly dominates the news flow. Some Americans have lambasted me for my recent comments, calling me rude and ill-informed. They parroted the Trump lines about the only way to defend Nato is to destroy Nato. or something like that. More Americans have told me they agree completely, confirming in my mind the increasingly dangerous polarisation of the USA could metastize into something more truly malignant.Rising US Political Risk and domestic pressures should be on everyone’s threat board as the November Mid Terms approach. How much clearer can I say it?