Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th April 2026 – THE BATTLE FOR HAMBLE     I am delighted to announce the launch of a new book – The Battle of Hamble.On April 9th The Battle of Hamble is published by Windshift. It’s a new book by Bill Blain available on Amazon and from local bookstores. It’s a tale of greedy corporates, bad planning, economic illiteracy, and plucky Hampshire villagers fighting back. The pretty and picturesque village of Hamble-le-Rice is the UK’s leading Sailing centre. It hosts multiple yacht clubs, marine businesses, pubs and is a tourist destination. The Battle of Hamble lays out how the prosperous village on the Solent Coast of Hampshire is about to be decimated, its economy destroyed, and its people made destitute by the rapacious actions of two greedy corporates; UK Homebuilder Persimmon, and Mexican cement and waste multinational CEMEX.Persimmon has been repeatedly refused planning permission to build homes on an old airfield because the local road and infrastructure is overwhelmed. They’ve licensed CEMEX to dig a gravel quarry in the heart of the village, right next to three schools and over 1000 homes. The quarry is wholly unnecessary. It will create devastating impacts across the local economy, putting 6000 local jobs at risk, make road congestion even worse, while raising noise, nuisance, dust and particulate health risks. It is already hitting the wealth and prosperity of the village as home prices tumble and businesses plan to move out. Over 20,000 residents on the Hamble peninsula will be affected adversely. It’s social injustice on an enormous scale. At no point in the planning process were the economics of putting the local economy at risk properly examined. Locals and experts demonstrated how the Developers’ plans to “mitigate” the flooding, pollution and congestion risks of the quarry were deeply flawed and based on misinterpreted data. Yet the planning inspector assigned to hear the case didn’t even mention these in his decision to approve the quarry. Big money won – the small people lost. The book examines how and why the UK planning system has become so deeply flawed. It explains how Broken Britain is the consequence of bureaucratic processes that fail to deliver Government objectives of strong and resilient communities – and in fact delivers exactly the opposite.The books delves into how UK homebuilders act as landbanks with little incentive to build homes except when it suits their profits to do so, how gravel is anything but a strategic resource as recycled materials are now more important, and how the real value of a gravel quarry is not what is dug out of it, but what is subsequently stuffed back into it – which is likely to be landfill waste or worse. The developers won by arbitraging the planning system, using obsolete rules that define gravel as a "strategic resource” to trump the rights of the locals. Over 5700 local objections were made to the quarry, and 40 separate grounds for rejection were identified. Despite the health, wealth and prosperity risks, the planning bureaucracy determined a wholly unnecessary gravel quarry is more important than a resilient and vibrant local community! The developers won because they played their knowledge on how the underfunded and under-resourced UK planning system has been captured by expensive consultants and lawyers – who add complexity and make it prohibitively expensive for planning victims to fight. The Hamble quarry is staggering corporate injustice perpetrated on the people of Hamble. The boards of Persimmon and CEMEX will likely pocket bigger bonuses, while the village will die. The Battle For Hamble illustrates how Broken Britain is exploited by corporate greed, riven by inefficient bureaucracy which doesn’t understand basic economics, all of which make social outcomes worse. ContactBill Blain+447770881033Billblain@Windshift.capital

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 8th, 2026: The Big Risk is No Longer Oil – Its Political Credibility.“It you attack Persia a mighty empire will fall.”Trump took the Off-Ramp. Markets are soaring, off to the races as the threats of global slowdown, recession and stagflation recede. But, for all the military power and competency on display – it’s a strategic defeat for the USA. That has massive implications for US Assets – Treasuries, Stocks, Investment, Market Confidence and Politics. It’s a double Porridge Morning – I will be out with a second Morning Porridge later this morning announcing a new Book!But first… A rant about Politics.President Trump took the Ceasefire Off-Ramp last night. Joy unconfined across markets. In the next few days oil, gas and the rest will likely flow out the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will claim the credit, but will anyone pay much attention to him? There will still be oil dislocations and there will still be uncertainty as to what follows, but this morning Markets believe it’s all over.It probably is.Trump is a creature of limited patience – as evidenced by the recent tone of his Truth Socials. He was very aware Iran had become a difficult to win war, impossible in the timeframe before the US Midterm elections. He has therefore taken the easy option. He will say he’s won – but he’s walking away from an unfinished fight. The Americans will leave some assets in the region, tell everyone loudly they are ready… We’ve seen this before.A humiliated and wounded Trump is not a positive for the US political economy – for bonds, stocks, the inward investment Trump thinks has been promised to him, or market confidence. Brand America has been tarnished. Trump punched the hornet’s nest but it’s still there. Iran may be pockmarked by piles of rubble, but the real damage is the cumulative effect on American credibility.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, April 7th 2026 – Reflections on a morning after the night before….“You can get along without money, you can lose your dividends…”We think we know the patterns – how markets resonate and repeat. But…. Do we? Every so often the Earth’s polarity shifts – but its never happened in recorded history so we don’t really know. Every so often the World’s basis changes. Make merry while we can. Enjoy what is real. The rest is just numbers. You are measured not by the digits on your bank balance, but by the numbers of your friends.It is July 1914.I have what may be the worst hangover in recorded human history. We had the very best day ever, yesterday.Easter Monday in the back garden with our very best friends. The barbies were fired up: Blain’s Slow Pork bites, Chipotle Salmon and the ultimate proof that God exists: Herb Crusted Yogurt-Marinated Lamb Chops. Hugs and kisses as we told each other how wonderful the wines were (an Alberino and a Super Tuscan by Antinori) and as evening fell we were drinking them by the case full! Inevitably the laws of demand and supply caught up. Soon there were none left and the darker recesses of the cellar were explored.It was a party to celebrate nothing in particular except friendship and the sheer exuberant joy of it. We were deep into California Reds as Artemis II rounded the Moon and headed back towards the Blue Marble. The music was 1970-80s, the love, the bonds and shared memories were genuine… and I think we might have recited the whole of the Top Gun script from memory. Southy, Darren and I solved the mysteries of the universe a couple of times.I do not “feel the need for speed” this morning. Alka-Seltzer has been consumed.It was the best of times.This morning…. Do we face the worst of times?Cold, hard reality approaches like an accelerating panzer division storming through the Ardennes. We can’t avoid the coming stramash. The £2 litre of Diesel is upon us. 39 days of Disruption have consequences. The headlines and what they imply – the end of Nato, stagflation, and the rest – are bruises erupting across our faces as the punches start to land.

Blain’s Morning Porridge, April 2nd, 2026 – Markets set to be roiled by Trump’s Iran Consequences“To go into any war without a Plan B is bad decision making. To declare war without Plan A defies logic.”Oh dear. Last night’s explanation of the War did not go well. What changed except a more unstable and fractured global economy and rising trade, supply chain and conflict risks? When markets are priced for perfection – what happens when reality intrudes. I see bad things arising.The market reaction to the Presidential Address says it all. Oil Up. Stocks Down. Was last night the moment confidence cracked?The risk is that US markets are priced for perfection in what is being revealed as a very imperfect global economy. That US markets have remained detached for this long from the rising consequential threats of destabilising recession and inflation – Stagflation –is a function of markets not prepared to believe bad things happen, or that mistakes are made. It’s not just Iran. The market doesn’t seem to haven’t figured out how the end of globalisation, the rise of isolationism, supply-chain disruptions, economic and geopolitical illiteracy, and diminished national credibility are all threats to the over-valued US markets.(On the other hand, never forget: the market can always stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 2026 – Artemis II, Space X, Data Centres and Competition.“Space will end up being one of the places that keeps making Earth better.”Hype and reality seldom mix. Elon Musk is the exception that proves the rule. The Space X IPO is set to make him the first trillionaire – but what if Competition is already eating his lunch in space-based datacentres before he’s even looked at the menu? In the Tortoise vs the Hare space race – will Jeff Bezos emerge the winner?Today’s launch of the Artemis II 4-man mission to circle the Moon is the most exciting thing to happen in Space exploration in decades.  Commercially? The financial markets are focused entirely on how superlative the Space-X IPO is set to be in terms of size, price and profit action – or at least they were…The excitement around the Artemis mission obscured the success of yesterday’s launch of a duo of geo-sync satellites built by Singapore tech firm JieYuren on a prototype Blue Origin New Glenn rocket. The launch wasn’t only a rare example of Asian/American corporate tech co-operation but could be the straw that breaks the Elon Musk Myth. If any of Musk’s legion of fanboys were paying attention, it should have reminded them that the new ex-Earth based economy will literally be a competitive “space”. (Hah!)The future never stays the same. Not only has Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin achieved multiple orbital insertions of the New Glenn rocket, and delivered a package into high orbit, but the two JieYuren satellites are prototype units for orbital data-centres – a concept Musk thought he’d pretty much patented!According to Avril Salmon, JieYuren’s spokesperson, yesterday’s joint launch is not a deliberate spoiler for Space-X – but a clear demonstration that there are multiple pathways to monetise space – not just the Musk vision. The Space-X IPO is expected to value Musk’s firm at $1.75-2 trillion on a $75 bln record float as early as June.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 31st, 2026 – Escalating the Iran War into a Water War!“I hold at your neck the gom jabbar, the high-handed enemy. It’s a needle with a drop of poison…”Who needs nukes to win an Oil War when Water is the key? The Front-Line Gulf States are highly vulnerable to a Water War on their desalination plants. Yesterday Trump threatened to strike Iran’s water infrastructure – practically inviting Tehran to strike back! But the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran’s only Ace in the current war.Yesterday Donald Trump’s threatened a major escalation of the Iran War when he threatened to “blow up” Iran’s desalination plants. That would be a war crime – simple as. No ifs. No buts. The Rome statues forbid targeting civilian infrastructure while the Fourth Geneva convention specifically prohibits attacks on drinking water facilities. There are some things that can’t be unsaid.I’m sure I’m not the only financier wondering what Trump’s latest off-the-cuff, ill-considered jaw-dropper really means. Am I going to have to sell my entire position in US Treasuries and US Stocks? The UK regulator, the FCA, and internal ethical investment parameters, are both quite clear and specific about the ethics of investing in states that promote terror or genocide against civilian populations.  Al Jazeera carried an interview with a professor of international law this morning: “Trump’s threat reinforces the climate of impunity around collective punishment in warfare” adding: “this is clearly a [threat] of collective punishment, which is prohibited under international humanitarian law. You can’t deliberately harm an entire civilian population to pressure its government.”But the real issue is not the legality of warfare, but what Trump escalated yesterday. Were Trump to destroy Iran’s decaying desalination plants – which don’t supply Tehran and account for less than 3% of Iran’s water, it would have limited immediate effect on his opponent.But it would immediately escalate the war - practically a gilt-embossed invite to the Iran regime to counterstrike Gulf States’ water infrastructure and desalination facilities in what could prove a genocidal escalation of the war. Were Iran to successfully strike Gulf water supplies because Trump threatened to strike them – it would be the equivalent of a nuclear strike in terms of effectiveness.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, March 30th, 2026 – Stage 2 of American Divergence and the Risk of Global Stagflation “Events dear boy, events…” The global economy is inevitably slowing from the deepening Hormuz oil shock. The Americans intend to press on despite the rising costs. While the global economy burns, President Trump is mulling multiple plans to achieve his version of victory. The rest of the World is waking to the reality this war is damaging their economic interests, and wondering how to mitigate the effects. Another interesting week’s play in prospect for the global financial markets…. What will happen next? Who knows….  The financial markets are never simple. You can’t simply define them in terms of the sentiment differential between optimists and the pessimists, or how deep or shallow real events will go. There are consequences and effects which make markets and consequences kind of multi-dimensional! Hah…  that’s far too sci-fi for a Monday Morning, but I’m sure you get the drift.However, there is now a new reality emerging.It’s political realisation – call it Stage 2 of the Trump effect. Stage 1 was the realisation Trump holds the rest of the World in Contempt. Stage 2 is actively countering him.Around the globe, Nations are now experiencing the negative consequences of Trump’s mis-adventurism on their economic interests. While Trump continues to hurl insults at nations that won’t support his war, there is a growing realisation its America’s actions that have triggered global slowdown and likely stagflation.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, March 27th, 2026 – The Economic Implications of the Iran War“Armchair generals talk about tactics. Soldiers worry about logistics.”The cost of Trump’s War on Iran is extraordinary - $1 bln a day plus. War Stocks are being consumed at incredible speed. A request for an additional $200 bln of DOD funding is in the works. The nature of war has changed – it could prove phenomenally destructive, expensive and ruinous to winners and losers alike. Meanwhile the economic outcomes of the war remain in the balance.When I was a very young man the global bond markets were a single column buried deep in the second section of the Financial Times…. On Monday my boss reckoned the Euromarkets could see a $ 1 bln issuance week. It happened. We were stunned. Such a huge number. Unimaginable.Now we throw $1 trillion around like its normal.One writer on financial markets to whom I pay attention to is Torsten Slok of Apollo. Earlier this week he wrote the ballooning $2 trillion US budget deficit, plus the $10 trillion of US debt to be rolled over, plus rising hyper-scaler AI infrastructure issuance, means investment grade supply of over $14 trillion dollars this year. That poses the risk of a bear squeeze on rates and credit spreads as supply overtakes demand at a time when the Fed is thinking about pre-emptive rate hikes against inflation and the Hormuz Energy shock threatens global recession.If you want to horrify yourself, open the scariest page on the internet – the US Debt Clock. Play around with the time machine function. 125% debt to GDP. Ouch.120 years ago, the UK was the dominant global power. Today, the OECD sees the UK as the most vulnerable economy to the current energy shock – hence most likely to see a bond crisis, which already threatens to metastasize through the economy. (And before you start blaming Energy Secretary Ed Milliband… the UK’s energy insecurity is a result of long-term folly, not short-term mistakes.)There could be global trouble ahead.When bond markets wobble… everything else tends to fall. A global financial crisis would play straight into Iran’s war objectives.Alongside the energy shock, the inflation risk, and worries about deeper geopolitical conflict, the war in Iran is costing the USA about $1 bln per day in war-stock munitions. According to the WSJ, over $2 bln in expensive equipment, including three F-15s (shot down by an overly keen Kuwaiti pilot), a damaged F-35, K-135 tankers and 2 very expensive radar systems taken out by Iran missiles, has been written-off. That number will rise as the pace of operations continues to run hot and planes and pilots get tired. The exhausted 9-month deployment USS Gerald R Ford has been under repair in Crete for the last few days after an internal fire left much of the crew with nowhere to sleep. (Fascinating story on the carrier’s multiple problems on Bloomberg.)You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 26th, 2026 – The Truth is Out on Social Media“Do no evil was the biggest lie ever heard in the valley.”Social media is deliberately addictive? Who knew? While markets barely reacted to yesterday’s Product-Liability award against Meta and Alphabet in California, the growing pushback against Big Tech will see valuation multiples diminish over the long run as increased regulation becomes inevitable. Perhaps it’s time to look at how Tobacco firms have evolved to understand the future value of Social Media parasites?Apologies to Morning Porridge readers, listeners and viewers for the last week of silence. I was on the slopes – catching a last Ski-trip of this season to Chamonix. 5 days of fantastic conditions and a wonderful time with great friends. I had intended to write about markets – but waking up to the view of the mountains? Poetry in motion, or bond prices? Go figure.We only get to live once – in an this increasingly fraxious, insane and unpredictable world…. who knows when or where I will ski next? On the mountains I am still in my twenties, dodgy-ticker and aching joints forgotten, addicted to my SkiTrax app…. Not the grey-haired old man who labours to write the Porridge each morning. (Sadly, I lost my notes when I left my iPad on the plane last night!! Darn!)As I step back to the desk this morning, there is no shortage of stuff to write about – I am already digging into the latest wobble in private credit, and who knows where Iran goes? (Nowhere good I expect.) A fuller analysis on where the World might be headed will follow tomorrow, but let’s start with yesterday’s Judder Moment for Google and Meta.The Tide is Changing on Social MediaWhat would happen to the global economy if we give every kid whose life has been “blighted” (in some form) by Social Media $3 mm in damages plus $30mm in punitive damages? The consequences would be phenomenal – and devastating. Who would bother seeking a job? What would it mean for global inflation? The industrialisation of the court systems with billions of cases to adjudicate?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 18th March 2026: What Matters? Energy Security and Defence“Sometimes it is necessary to lose a battle to win a war”The last two weeks have been fascinating. Iran increasingly looks a strategic blunder by Trump in the wider global hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. It increases the likelihood of instability, trade and economic disruption and the threat of kinetic conflict. Boy Scout time: Be Prepared.Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge y’day and the slightly late comment today. Service will be slow in coming days – I’ve been floored by Man-Flu – the single most destructive force in the Universe. If I could spend the day sleeping it off I would… but the coughing, sneezing and sinusitis keeps me awake. I am turning into a Sleep Zombie, unable to snooze but glued to my screens watching the globe in turmoil…. Or something like that. (I’m wondering how I’ll cope this weekend – the last long ski weekend of the season!)At times like this remember Blain’s Market Mantra No 2 – “Things are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope.”Strip out the noise. Take a close look at what’s broken and figure out how the shards of the splintered markets will come back together again – they always do. At the macro level, we’re experiencing another energy shock. It means readjustment, recalibration, pain and tribulation, and markets finding new levels. Inflation looks to be nailed on – with massive implications for bond markets, and therefore relative pricing across all risk assets. New supply chain instabilities are inevitable as the world adjusts.Periods like this are rife with opportunities for traders and nations brave enough to take them. But the current self-inflicted global instability is happening right when leading global long-term chartists predicted it would – and I suggest you check out my chum David Murrin’s writings. He has called it perfectly thus far, predicting how today’s tensions would coincide with the 2K (120 year) cycle of hegemonic change – a period rife with conflict threats as China challenges the USA for global leadership. This is the new reality – global hegemonic change and how that plays out.My read on how the future develops is simple – two things will be critical in the coming decade: Energy Security and Effective Defence.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th March 2026 – Market Sentiment will Tumble on Unwinnable Wars“This is not Franklin Delano Roosevelt we’re dealing with here”Suddenly global markets are reeling – waking up to the reality of the unwinnable Iran War. What will a dramatic shift in sentiment mean for stocks, bonds and commodities as stagflation beckons, and Trump finds himself isolated? There is a growing risk of a liquidity shock to global markets. Did you feel the moment the wind changed over the weekend? The strum et drang of markets are now being driven by fears of what increasingly looks an unwinnable war in Iran. The big issues are sentiment and consequences. Markets had generally been positive, constructive and bought into expectations of US growth, earnings and the AI boost. Now they fear stagflation, rising rates, slowing demand, supply chain shocks – and a rising concern on just how much the US mid-term elections may destabilise markets further, especially if Trump is hammered in the polls!The consequences of Trump’s attack on Iran on stocks, bonds and the global economy look bleak – and the risk is a crisis triggered by liquidity flight!  Personally – I’m back to all-in on Gold. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Friday 13th March 2026 – Forget Iran, worry about Climate Whiplash and El Nino.“Out of the frying pan into the fire. Chaos begets chaos. Instability begets instability.”While global markets are fixated on the Gulf, cast a weather eye on the Eastern Pacific where a Super El Nino climate event is developing. It could lead to Climate Whiplash events in terms of flood, storms and drought, food inflation and increasing migration tensions. It never rains, but it pours – and that’s not necessarily good for the most important commodity on the planet: Water!Resilience is a marvellous word. How able are we to withstand the consequences of our multiple failings and keep smiling? Life is about making mistakes and how we recover from them – how resilient are we to the challenges and disasters that life sends our way?When I was a child, we were taught “it’s never anyone’s fault but your own” – that it’s our own responsibility to “resiliently” work our way out of crisis. Sh*t happens as they say… deal with it. Fortunately, most of the time outcomes from bad decisions are never as bad as we fear, but seldom as good as we hope, which is Blain’s Market Mantra No 2.I was with clients in London y’day and all they wanted to talk about was anything except what’s going on in the Gulf. They are struggling with Trump/Iran burnout syndrome – watching and listening to every move and comment so intently they have become increasingly anaesthetised to it. Oil prices are rising, stocks are falling, bonds are flustered, and even reputable analysts are saying the best hope for the market is yet another Trump Taco – although I reckon it’s too late for that and he’s in too deep…. We will wake up Monday and maybe it will all have magically solved itself – or it will have got worse.The thing about the energy crisis that’s roiling global markets is it’s the result of the actions of the players involved in it – they can talk, they can deal, they can compromise and make a bad situation slightly better. That’s the hope. (And if you are playing the market on Iran, then you factor the mercurial Trump into the equation.)But there are other kinds of crisis where the momentum is very different…. Where talking about it isn’t going to solve it… natural disasters like an earthquake or a volcano, or long-term change like climate warming. We can feel an earthquake and watch a volcano – therefore we know they are very real and even though they are not our fault we will have to deal the consequences.But climate warming?So, yesterday I talked to my “bored of Iran” clients about climate change…. Surely not? All that ESG nonsense is behind us… Donald Trump says it’s a hoax – and he is the biggliest clever man on the planet. What if... perish the thought, what if Trump is wrong? Actually, it doesn’t matter: If the Earth is getting warmer, it’s getting warmer and we have to deal with the consequences.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning! 

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 12th, 2026 - Winning the Economic War“I flew B-52 and bombed them with the blues..”The War in Iran is a kinetic feature of the economic/hegemonic struggle between the USA and China. President Trump will lose because his Iran war is unwinnable. Iran won’t lose because it does doesn’t have to win. That’s a recipe for a forever war, and a definition of asymmetric warfare. The likely winner of a wider Economic War will be China. Energy and Supply Chains will determine the future.What a curious world we live in. I had thought about writing on the rising likelihood of a Super-El-Nino event developing in the Eastern Pacific, and how it will trigger climate shocks and agricultural mayhem – but that’s going to happen tomorrow. What’s happening today is a much more immediate concern.“War is a continuation of policy by other means,” said Carl Von Clausewitz, founder of the Prussian General Staff 200 years ago. Since then, we’ve come to understand Policy and Economics are interchangeable; war is a policy tool used to achieve economic objectives.Thus far the immediate consequences of the Iran War are clear – economic instability from an energy shock due to blocked gas and oil supply chains. Further consequences are still to emerge and set what is a wider economic conflict between the America camp versus China and its Allies in stark reality.  What follows is a rough scenario of how the Economic War plays out in coming months/years.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 10th March 2026 – Stalemate in Iran, what’s the next risk? “They make a desert and call it peace.”Pretty much as was expected Donald Trump has declared his war almost over. Its not. It has destabilised the global economy. What might be roiled in its wake? One area to watch is how a liquidity default-storm in Private Credit could infect global bond and equity markets, causing a global market crisis. (Quick comment on this morning’s top line quote. I suspect the Caledonian Picts were the Iranians of their age. In 84 AD the Caledonian chief Calgacus became the first Scotsman to be mentioned by name in the history books when he gave his opinion of Emperor Agricola’s invasion of Scotland. For the record – a later Emperor, Hadrian, gave up and built the famous wall, requiring massive Roman resources to police the Caledonian border for the next 300 years.)Let’s get on to today’s business…I am indebted to Will Nutting for the quote of the month: “The USA spent 20-years and trillions of dollars replacing the Taliban with the Taliban. Trump has replaced Ayatollah Khamenei with Ayatollah Khamenei in just 9 days and for less than a $100 billion.”Joy unconfined as Trump speaks to Putin and then declares the war just about won. A massive market rally is on the cards… The mission objectives changed yet again – it wasn’t about regime change or stopping nukes but bringing back down oil and gas prices!The truth is the attack on Iran is ending in a stalemate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge March 9th, 2026 – What’s the plan? Keep bombing? What?“I love the smell of napalm in the morning…. smells like victory.”Global disruption – how likely is it to end quickly? Trump’s objective was to install a regime that will do his bidding in Iran. The appointment of Khamenei v2.0, the lack of a clear opposition, or defectors, makes a swift closure increasingly less likely. Global markets are pricing for a long, destabilising war with rising inflationary and geopolitical volatility.I’ve just spent a bluebird week skiing in the Alps – blue skies and crisp pistes. After a swiftly written Morning Porridge, on Monday I switched off the world and tightened up my boots. Skiing makes me happy and smile a lot. My definition of good skiing isn’t fast – but controlled, and (above all) stylish (in a sort of 1970s way!) To cap a fantastic week Scotland beat France in the Six Nations, and our hosts, Italy beat England! Yay!Looks like I missed an interesting week in markets….Long coach transfers to airports and even longer passport queues are great places to catch up on podcasts and read market notes. As I read the reports, and Secretary of War Hegseth promising more to come, I could not but think about Col Kilgore of the US cavalry – the character played by Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 1st March 2026 – AI, Politics and Populism, Luddites and Social Revolution“You say you want a revolution, well, you know we all wanna change the world..”As the US and Israel attack Iran, confirming the Fire Horse threat of escalating conflict risks, do we also face a second social threat from AI triggering widespread social and wealth-inequality protests? Does 2026 risk becoming a double whammy hit on market sentiment and confidence?I am cheating this morning. This morning’s Porridge was written on Saturday – before I jumped on a plane for a week on Sunday morning to go skiing in Italy. As War has broken out in the Middle East I’ll have the full laptop suite with me in case it gets hairier than Trump expects… First thing to note is Bitcoin crashed on higher risk.I warned a few weeks ago how “Fire Horse Years” (according to the Chinese Zodiac) can be volatile and explosive, this one occurring in conjunction with a 2K (2 Kondratieff Cycle) period of hegemonic challenge – and the elevated likelihood of associated conflict as the USA and China square off. The rising tide of conflict in the Middle East highlights the risks.But, what if we are also going through an acute societal shift, which could trigger social unrest?There is an apocryphal story set in the near future where a starship built around a super-AI is crewed by three humans and a dog. The ship traverses the vastness of the galaxy to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to go boldly where no dog has gone before. (No split infinitives in the Morning Porridge!)The humans are there to feed and exercise the dog.How is AI going to change the world? Do we face civilisational erasure as a result of its’ quadratically expanding god-like power? Will we be replaced or become pods in some Matrix like future. Or will AI’s phenomenal access to information and our intellect lead to a fulfilling partnership between Man and Machine.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Fed 25th, 2026: What is the US Yield Curve Really Telling Us?“When there is a lack of honour in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.”Does the steepness of the US yield curve tell us the US Economy is about to boom, or inflation is about to sink the Treasury markets? To figure out which, you need to interrogate the witnesses and look at what the evidence is telling us.My ambition is to keep learning new stuff. Like this morning’s quote – from Herbert Hoover.One of the things I enjoy most is sharing my experience of how markets work in practice. Aside from my careless Desmond (a Tutu) in Economics, my only qualifications to do so are gleaned from surviving 40 years in financial markets. My great delight is my honorary professorship at the Edinburgh Business School (which I suspect was because they felt I deserved a B+ for effort), but I have few academic chops as a great thinker or as a theoretical economist.However, I do think markets, economics, and politics make a curious kind of sense, and if you dig deep enough…. it’s even possible to explain them and figure them out!Yesterday I had the great pleasure to give a guest lecture on the bond markets to a classroom of American PhD Students at Brown University in New England (via Zoom). They are taking a class on the International Political Economy of Global Finance. It’s a fascinating course, run by my great chum, fellow-Scot, and genuine academic thinker, Professor Mark Blyth.Mark is a guy who takes a deep interest in how complex things work. He picks them apart and asks difficult questions like why? He’s now applying that intellectual curiosity to take students deep into the foundations, architecture and plumbing of international finance. I’ve looked at the syllabus and if I had the time, I’d take the course myself – because it’s good to see ourselves as other see us, and wonder if there are better ways to think about the world, and how to action it.The fact I got asked a lash of questions following my lecture was an added bonus.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 24th, 2026: Iran could be the flashpoint for market dislocation“Do not defy the fates and bring shame on Rome.”Markets aren’t much concerned about Iran. US Military might is expected to prevail, cowing the Ayatollahs into acceptance of Trump’s maximalist demands. What could possibly go wrong? Trump is no student of history, and may not understand the gamut of military, logistical and geopolitical risks aligned against him.Does the markets’ fixation on AI mean they are missing what might be main event? In 53 BC Marcus Licinius Crassus, the senior member of the Roman Triumvirate (and richest man in Rome) was nervous of Caesar’s rising popularity from his military successes in Gaul. Crassus led the 7 legions of the Eastern Army into the desert to restore and enhance his own military lustre – incidentally a move made without the approval of the Senate and People of Rome (“SPQR”).  His army was annihilated by Persian heavy cavalry and horse archers at the Battle of Carrhae. Glancing through the stock market commentaries this morning the noise is all about the end of the first soft “industrial” age; the collapse in software stocks – dinosaurs replaced by evolved AI. Investors are wondering how much more damage AI will inflict upon businesses. Every firm that employs folk to actually think is at risk. How the global economy evolves as a result of AI will have profound market implications tomorrow – but today the imminent threat might be elsewhere. Markets are often blind. Analysts are pitching investment strategies bar-belling the soft side of the economy in terms of hyperscalers and industrials for the hard stuff, while shorting the soft middle. Next up in the tumbril for the AI guillotine will be banks and investment managers, because AI is going to do it all so much better. Quite who the AI Revolution is going to leave in a job, earning enough money to actually consume anything in this new economy, is…. unclear.Maybe put that stuff aside for a moment.  Today? Buy missile producers, buy tank makers, buy weapons. We might be about to get a thumping great lesson in logistical facts, economic reality, and geopolitical shifts. Let me explain in a word: Iran.

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 23rd, 2026 – Private Credit and Treasury Wobbles... Relax….“Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the show?”Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!An interesting week’s play in prospect for global markets this Monday morning. There was a distinct judder moment on Friday after the US Supreme Court declared Trump’s emergency tariffs were unconstitutional. He didn’t react well. The markets shrugged and wondered… Where do we go from here?I suspect the driving theme for the week with be elevated fears on bonds and credit markets, and how swiftly risks and concerns are jumping the gap to cross-contaminate between bond and equity markets.How will markets react to Trump’s tariff SNAFU? Weren’t tariffs going to pay off the USA’s $38 trillion debt? (No – they were not!)How will markets react to the wobble-signs from the private credit markets as Blue Owl acts to control retail redemptions on certain funds – while sharks, in the guise of SABA (Boas Weinstein) get ready to pounce with a 35% discount offer to NAV. Could private credit trigger a credit/liquidity crunch?The fact lending to software companies (hammered by AI threats) is at the core of the Blue Owl lending concerns highlights the circularity of markets and that credit lending is as much about risk as equities!How will these forces inter-relate with all market noise around geopolitics, AI, liquidity, politics, Iran and the growing sense of instability that seems to pervade everything? Cheer up – as I’ll scribble at the end of this Porridge, Life is Still Good. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Jan 20th, 2026: Corruption and Justice – Action Required.“America may be blind, but the world will see who is involved and complicit.”The difference between successful democratic economies and autocracy is that the rule of law works better. Autocracies trend towards corruption and inefficiency. Insider dealing and corruption is a fact of the financial markets – punishing it is a matter of the enforcement of justice and the willingness to do so. Europe is acting over Epstein. What’s happening in the USA?  Friday is rant day. I can say what has to be said. Over the weekend I’ll be digging into the implications of Blue Owl gating its Alternative funds, and if that’s the Bear Stearns Moment warning of ructions ahead for Private Credit markets.Investment is an exceptionally complex business. There are multiple considerations in terms of the risk/reward profile of any deal. The probabilities of success versus the likelihood of misadventure must be checked and reconciled against contracts, credit and data. Analysts dissect company accounts, statements and information on the parties to the trade. Lawyers have become MVPs (most valuable players) because successful investments are built upon a framework of law and order. While a gentleman’s word may be worth something in terms of the credibility to open doors, and trust is fundamental in any deal discussions, without the backing of sound contracts, strong legal systems, and the enforcement of justice – you are just gambling versus human avarice. The strength of the judicial system is a critical support and consideration in any deal.History shows the economies of nations with strong and fair judicial systems tend to perform more strongly than autocratic states, where the old adage absolute power corrupts absolutely oft proves the case, leading to widespread corruption and underperformance across the whole economy.Yesterday was a WTF day in the UK. It’s not every day a Prince of the Blood is hauled off thru Traitor’s Gate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!