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Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.
52 Episodes
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November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum. Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem. This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover: China’s supply-side slowdown, and ...
As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come? In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026. Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from...
At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead. This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout. Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail. D...
In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name… And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involutio...
On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days. First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss: The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behaviorChina’s related efforts to build out its forei...
With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues. They discuss: How China intends to ma...
Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea. Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue. Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expect...
1It was another monumental week on the China front. On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMah...
Alright folks, this one is a banger. In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss: The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into: How US businesses are ...
It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front. After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days. At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, an...
Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday. On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus. The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on ...
Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you! In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office. Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conve...
Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible. The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative. Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy ...
For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure. But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works. For the past 18 months, Trivium ...
China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting. That’s not supposed to happen: Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic as...
Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week. Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global S...
China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February. Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property secto...
China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage. The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads. They break down: Wha...
The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments. Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss t...
When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's: Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal ...
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