Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore does a deep dive asking the question why is everyone rooting for the Fed to lower rates? If the Fed must lower interest rates, doesn't that mean there is trouble? Should investors instead be rooting for stable but higher rates where the long end un-inverts as a proxy for higher growth? What happens to market performance between the last Fed hike and first rate cut? What is the historical performance of markets post the first Fed rate cut? Then looking at past yield curve (10-year treasury minus 3-month treasury yield) before recessions. How the Fed normally inverts and then un-inverts the curve by hiking and then lowering interest rates. Finally, what is the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research Board) looking at to determine recessions?   What is the inverted yield curve? How have past yield curves inverted and un-inverted around recessions? How does the stock market perform between the final rate hike and first rate cut? How does the stock market perform after the first rate cut by the Fed? Are rate cuts a sign of strength in the economy? How the Fed typically causes inversions by hiking the Fed funds rate. Historically the yield curve un-inverted because the Fed is cutting rates. Will this time be different where long rates move higher to un-invert the curve? What is the NBER National Bureau of Economic Research looking at for recessions? How predictive of recessions is the yield curve?   Mentioned in this Episode:   Liz Young Sofi article showing S&P 500 Index market returns from last rate cut to first hike and post first Fed cut https://www.sofi.com/article/investment-strategy/liz-looks-at-recent-rally/   FRED Spread of 10-year treasury bond to 3 month treasury bill difference updated https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M   NBER business cycle dates (past recession dates) https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions     Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/option-selling-etfs-boom-probability-of-future-fed/id1432836154?i=1000633983056   0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli rejoins Derek Moore to talk Jay Powell and the Fed seemingly tightening and loosening all at once. They raised rates, but then increased the size of their balance sheet through the SVB (and other) bank bailouts.  Then, observing the deep discounts, some REIT etfs are currently trading to NAV and what that infers. Also, Hindenburg research (a short seller) put out negative research on Block (Square). The role of short-selling firms and noting the high stock-based compensation impact on non-GAAP earnings in Block. Finally, Jay and Derek discuss the changes to sector classifications and the impact on financials, how bad a year 2022 was for both stocks and bonds together, and how earnings estimates look going forward and how far off analysts were last year. Of course, they'll have some recommendations.   2023 Q1 earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index companies How the analysts brought down earnings estimates How off analysts were from their early estimates to actual earnings Hindenburg negative Block (Square) piece before they sold short SBC or Stock Based Compensation impact on GAAP earnings vs adjusted earnings Real Estate REITs seem to be trading below their NAV, are they ahead of the game? Goldman Sachs points out tightening financial conditions are a quasi-25-50 bps raise How the bank crisis may make lending standards tighter Will financials have a headwind on earnings due to tightening credit conditions? Fed balance sheet balloons up after bailouts of banks GICS sector re-classification by moving companies like Visa and Mastercard to financials They discuss whether sector re-classifications in many companies were the right fit Berkshire Hathaway holds Apple and other non-financials but are the highest weighted in XLF What the earnings outlook shows for first quarter through the end of 2023 How far off analysts were when looking at their projections for Q4 22 a year out How much analysts estimates for sectors and the S&P 500 earnings change over time QT Quantitative Tightening and QE Quantitative Easing all at the same time? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confusing answers to congress on bank bailouts Did the Fed need to raise 25 bps to keep its credibility?     Mentioned in this Episode:     Sequence of recessions and what comes first https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sequence-of-recessions-slowdowns-dividends-make/id1432836154?i=1000603802075   US Debt Bomb and Growing Interest Rates effects on US Federal Deficit and Budget https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/us-debt-bomb-interest-rates-brewing-auto-loan-problem/id1432836154?i=1000602839094 Bloomberg Odd Lots Podcast deep dive into state of commercial real estate and loans https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/where-stress-is-showing-in-the-%2420-trillion/id1056200096?i=1000604934309   Podcast Explaining Overnight Reverse Repos ON RRP by the FED https://open.spotify.com/episode/09VOIffldtn3WxNm7rzyNx     Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to explain how the market just got cheaper on a forward valuation standpoint. Plus, how Nvidia EPS estimates reached a new all-time high while the stock trends sideways. Later, comparing Salesforce and Exxon, where they look at a multiple expansion vs a multiple contraction. Finally, they delve into an increase in the near-term volatility skew, and the hot PPI numbers.   What is volatility skew Salesforce vs Exxon Nvidia goes sideways even though earnings and sales estimates reach new highs What does it me when stocks forward multiples contract (rerate) Getting into the PPI release   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the market reaction. Plus, looking at what the options market is predicting for Nvidia post earnings moves. Later, WTI oil prices moving higher, did the energy sector bull run predict this? Finally, breaking down the GDP release and whether the baring the government shutdown, GDP would have been higher. All this and more this week.   GDP release and breakdown No inflation from tariffs Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs What other justifications Trump admin can use to still impose tariffs WTI West Texas Intermediate crude price catches a bid Nvidia earnings this week come out so what is the option market predicting? Nvidia implied volatility and straddle prices   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI release and how there isn't any evidence that tariffs are causing any issues with inflation. So, does this mean the Fed has a green light to cut rates? As the market broadens, you might be surprised what sectors are leading and hint, it's not tech.   CPI Inflation report No inflation from tariffs Fed interest rate cuts Mag 7 passes the baton to energy, materials, and staples Nvidia earnings are coming up so what does the implied volatility say at this point?   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to chat about the meltdown in bitcoin and Strategy (MicroStrategy $MSTR). Why would investors choose MSTR over just Bitcoin? The enterprise value vs market value of its Bitcoin holdings. Later, The Mag 7 aren't all acting alike as Apple is surging while Microsoft is in a bear market. Later, is volatility too high given we are so close to the previous all-time high in the S&P 500 Index?   Bitcoin vs Strategy Bitcoin melts down Strategy $MSTR enterprise value vs the value of its Bitcoin holdings Apple vs Microsoft Why would an investor who likes Bitcoin buy $MSTR vs owning $IBIT? VIX hits 23 but was that an overreaction given we are so close to ATH?   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com      

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to discuss the parabolic moves in silver and gold including the record amount of trading. Plus, was PPI a big deal or no problem? Later, looking at the forward valuations of Walmart vs Nvidia in a hypothetical game of which one would you rather hold? You could also flip a coin which would be as good as any analysis. Meanwhile, earnings estimates have ticked higher while the S&P 500 Index moved lower, illustrating a multiple contraction in the forward PE ratio.   Silver and Gold go parabolic Record trading volumes in silver and gold Forward EPS estimates tick higher in the S&P 500 Index PPI Producer Price Index was lower in 2025 than 2024 so why the angst? Walmart vs Nvidia forward PE ratios Why is Walmart trading at a higher valuation than Nvidia? Is AI the reason Walmart is bid up on a valuation measure?     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com        

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about how it seems every metal is surging including Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and what else? Plus, Shane reports on the options conference and record option volumes. Oh, and did the market and volatility overreact to Greenland? It lasted all of one day. Oh, we have a big earnings week coming so what is the options market predicting for earnings moves?   Big earnings week Implied volatility of most of the Mag 7 pre-earnings Record options contract volumes Greenland market event that lasted all of one day Volatility goes up and comes right back down Palladium, Copper, Gold, Platinum, and Silver all moving Bonds vs Gold     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the tariffs matter to the market anymore. Plus, energy stocks break out even though oil is still below $60. Later, how we continue to see broadening in participation of the bull market beyond the mag 7 stocks. Of course, earnings season is starting and in the end earnings matter above all else.   Earnings matter in the long run XOM Exxon some back Energy stocks no longer hibernating How stocks can do well even if the underlying commodity isn't Commodity next boom? Does the Fed theoretically use taxpayer funds for their expenses? Will Powell leave the Fed when his term as chair ends (but not his governor term) Different pockets of the market still running Mag 7 trailed through April then led, not that gap is closing   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether higher valuations are warranted based on rising profit margins. Then, they think about whether the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs matters for the market. Later, they discussed Google passing Apple for the #2 highest valued company in the S&P 500 Index, midterm election years performance vs other years, regression channels in the S&P 500 Index, payroll numbers, interest rates, and even copper prices.   Midterm year performance vs other presidential cycle years Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs and what it means for markets Copper prices are about to break out or break down? Fed interest rates saying no cuts until after Powell leaves? Semiconductor earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index as a whole Polymarket sees only a 25% chance tariffs are upheld Google (Alphabet) surpasses Apple to be world #2 behind Nvidia Three-Month payroll contraction on nonfarm payrolls Talking technical analysis with regression channels on the SPX Free cash flow margins tech vs the rest Valuation forward pe ration adjusted for net profit margins S&P 500 companies' real revenue per worker highest going back to 1986 S&P 500 quarter EPS growth estimates Y/Y % change   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com  

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner, Mike Snyder, and yup Jay Pestrichelli makes an appearance to give our 2026 predictions. Where will markets, the economy, gold, the dollar, the fed, interest rates, bitcoin, recession, oil, bitcoin and much more plus a look back at who got 2025 right.   2026 Year End S&P 500 Index Targets VIX high for 2026 10 Year Treasury predictions Where will Bitcoin end 2026? Where will Oil, Gold, & the US Dollar End land in 2026? Outliers amongst the group and some consensus Why you shouldn't trade off these Why committing to strategies rather than trying to time markets is the way 2025 Predictions and who was right and who was wrong The challenge in trying to predict markets When will the last Fed rate change happen next year? Where do interest rates wind up landing? What about GDP and CPI Inflation forecasts for 2026?   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about silver prices going parabolic while Gold, Copper, Platinum, and other metals are clocking in gains. Does the rally continue? They, they look at how well international markets have done crushing the S&P 500 Index this year where Spain's IBEX 35 and South Korea's KOSPI are the top dogs that no one saw coming. Later, they discussed the attribution to gains this year including how much it is due to earnings growth vs the growth of the forward PE multiple. Finally, discussing how much the S&P 500 Index companies' turnover (and have done so at a much higher rate recently) showing the value of owning a momentum index that is diversified.    Oil vs Gold Ratio Silver, Gold, Platinum, and Copper all rallying Surprising international markets crushing it this year including Spain and Korea Russell 2000 Index consensus 2026 earnings forecast sees EPS growing 61% in 2026 What is the Santa Claus rally? S&P 500 Index Company Turnover and disruption Why own indexes and is the S&P 500 Index a momentum index? Earnings growth vs multiple expansion responsible for market gains in 2025 Yardeni Research projects gold to hit $6000 in 2026 and $10,000 by 2030 Does the national deficit matter? Energy commodities vs metals Truck Tonnage Index decouples with the S&P 500 Index performance TIPS bonds may not help you during inflationary periods due to duration interest rate risk   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com       

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI report and the bad beat for analysts. Then, they talk Bitcoin and what if it goes sideways for the next 5 years? Later, looking at Tesla TSLA implied volatility and whether SpaceX is creeping into its price plus how a small ETF is gaining flows because of a small allocation to SpaceX. We'll also talk sector performance YTD in 2025, Bitcoin vs gold searches, and yup, a little Japan talk looking at their 10 year yields surging across 2% for the first time in a while and whether this is an issue.    Gold vs Bitcoin Bitcoin if its flat over the next 5-10 years as it matures SpaceX seeking investors pile into XOVR ETF (ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF) What could go wrong for investors seeking private investments Sector performance YTD and some surprises Should Apple be a consumer staple? Japan 10-year yields surge past 2% so what could go wrong? Tesla TSLA implied volatility seems high, but it really isn't on a relative basis CPI prints a lower-than-expected reading  Still no inflation from tariffs      Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com     

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to ask if you would rather have a $1 million lump sum vs $1000 per week for life if you won the lotter. Then, looking at some of the incoming 2026 Wall Steet year end S&P 500 Index targets. Don't forget we'll do our own 2026 prediction show. Later, Apple seems to be bucking the AI spend and its price has been resilient in 2025, so what goes right or wrong in 2026? Plus, how markets go up over time but more specifically, in years they are up it's likely they are up more than average.   Apple bet not to go all in on AI Wall Street investment banks 2026-year end targets starting Average market returns vs returns in up markets Time value of money Lottery winner in Canada chooses $1000 a week for life vs $1 million today The goldilocks markets as a thesis   Mentioned in this Episode   20-Year-old lottery winner decies against $1M lump sum, opts for lifetime weekly $1000 payout https://ca.news.yahoo.com/20-year-old-lottery-winner-decides-against-1m-lump-sum-opts-for-lifetime-weekly-annuity-in-hopes-of-buying-a-home-120026248.html   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com         

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Jurrien Timmer's chart showing we aren't in a bubble because the rise in markets is due to earnings not multiple gains. Plus, U of Michigan consumer sentiment hits a new low despite markets near all-time highs. Later, is Japan's rise in interest rates a problem for stocks, bonds, or neither? Finally, looking at the returns of gold vs stocks plus surprising forward P/E ratio of Walmart vs Nvidia.   Gold vs Stocks performance Jurrien Timmer's market return attributions comparing earnings vs valuation gains Bubble or not a bubble. Earnings multiple changes vs earnings changes Walmart forward P/E ratio University of Michigan consumer sentiment of economic conditions index     Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the coming Fed decision and what the market is telling us. Plus, CNN's Fear and Greed Index is almost at extreme fear so why are most markets near all-time highs? Then, looking at the economy through the lens of Michael Kantro's HOPE theory and whether the recent ADP employment report is giving mixed messages. All this and more this week.   HOPE = Housing Orders Profits Employment Russell 2000 Cup or Vase with Handle pattern? Fed interest rate cut now at 94% probability Are small caps telling us more rate cuts coming? Earnings expectations on the Russell 2000 Index? CNN Fear and Greed Index showing almost extreme fear Disconnect between Fear and Greed Index vs the stock market Soft data vs hard data disconnect Bitcoin and MicroStrategy or Strategy catches a bid on Vanguard news ADP soft private employment data     Mentioned in this Episode   Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com        

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia's moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs?   MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting Probability of an interest rate cut Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings? Looking at when sentiment was low during good periods of market gains Did Nvidia calm the AI is a bubble trade? Rob Arnott comments around AI vs the internet from Excess Returns   Mentioned in this Episode   Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder this week to talk about people's reaction to Michael Burry's comments on earnings quality in the Mag 7 companies, talk of the OpenAI IPO, and Nvidia's options ahead of earnings week. Plus, they reframe the idea of Strategy buying Bitcoin by using an alternative example. What if they held Apple stock instead? All this and much more this week.    Michael Burry suggests depreciation and accounting adjustments driving earnings in Mag 7 OpenAI most anticipated IPO since Snapple in the early nineties? What if AI technology is a technical revolution but the winning companies are different? Michael Saylor's Bitcoin strategy landing on hard times What if Saylor bought Apple stock instead of Bitcoin, does that make their strategy easier to understand? Enterprise value vs market cap Implied volatility on Nvidia options ahead of earnings   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com   

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder where they look at the dispersion happening within the S&P 500 Index November to date. Then, they discuss the outflows ongoing for the small caps and what if anything that means. Later, looking at the effects of earnings on Nvidia's option prices, Apple's outlier as the strongest of the Mag 7 this week, and reviewing how the market re-rating caused the market to ease even though another record forward earnings expectation number from analysts.   Not all Mag-7 stocks are acting in unison NVDA implied volatility comparison between expirations around earnings Small cap outflows are showing people aren't favoring them this year despite interest rate cuts Forward 12-month analyst EPS estimates on S&P 500 hit record high While the forward multiple declines in a market re-rating Apple vs the other Mag-7 stocks Market pullback before going for 7000? Don't try and time it, just be hedged!   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com      

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss the Hindenburg Omen and what that means for the stock market. Plus, looking at whether the Tariff trade has been completely wrong. Later, the best six months of the year are here, problems with using CAPE Ration to predict forward returns, permabears, and examining whether MicroStrategy (Strategy) is starting to not make sense to investors. All that plus looking at Semiconductors cycle against the Mag 7 and the S&P 500 Index.   Tariff trade MicroStrategy (Strategy) vs Bitcoin trade Enterprise value of MicroStrategy vs intrinsic value of their Bitcoin holdings What is the CAPE Ratio? CAPE Ratio and forward 10-year and 12-year returns Earnings multiples John Hussman 12-year forward expected returns What are the best six months of the year Federal Reserve Obfuscation Index Semiconductors broke out "after going nowhere for over a year"     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com