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Keith welcomes back macroeconomist Richard Duncan of Macro Watch to examine where mortgage rates are headed and what's driving them there.  Duncan explains how the U.S. shifted from capitalism to what he calls "creditism" after the dollar left gold in 1971, and why today's AI investment boom, rising defense spending, and a $40 trillion national debt are all pointing inflation and interest rates in the same direction.  He also makes the case for rental property on land as a long-term inflation hedge, and answers a question many have asked: if the government can print currency, why does it collect taxes?  Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/623 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: [email protected] Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. You're going to get a good idea of where future mortgage rates are headed as we're talking to one of the world's most brilliant macroeconomists today. Will AI be more inflationary or deflationary? And the profundity of how we're on the brink of moving into a completely new economic system today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Home Buyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6000 homes under management, for a free live webinar the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth again. that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:34   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:50   Welcome to GRE from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, to Lancaster, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education, and I really appreciate that you're here. Yes, those two cities, though spelled the same, are pronounced differently. Framing this entire episode today with our brilliant guest, you'll learn which direction future mortgage rates are probably going to move, and it's decidedly either going to be higher or lower. You'll get a clear answer. Now I've said that trying to predict mortgage rates definitively is foolish. We're only talking about probabilities today. Look, have you ever wondered if the government can just print its own currency? Then why do they have to collect taxes from us. We're going to get that answer today. Back in 1971, the U.S. economy left a system of capitalism, in fact, and embarked on a journey of creditism as defined by today's guest. Well, now we're about to leave creditism. You'll learn what is poised to replace it, and it is an AI-fueled answer. You know, to prep you with some context today, I've said it here before. But when you start talking about the enormity of a national economy, the words billion and trillion start to get thrown around a lot. A trillion seconds ago, you know how long ago that was. That takes you further back than the Roman Empire, because a trillion seconds is 31,700 years. Well, 31,700 years ago, that is just about as far back as when the plains of Europe were being roamed by Neanderthals. Yeah, that was a trillion seconds ago. Coming up on the show here, the man who wrote the book on the Pareto principle 30 years ago. That's the 80-20 principle, where 20% of your effort yields 80% of the results. We'll talk to him and learn how those insights can improve your life on a different upcoming episode.   Keith Weinhold  4:08   Here, the book Rich Dad Poor Dad was originally written by two authors. One of those two was Robert Kiyosaki. We had Kiyosaki on the show here with us in June, and by the way, the New York Post recently wrote an article, and they cited the Get Rich Education podcast in how Kiyosaki revealed on the show here that he is 1.2 billion dollars in debt. You can find that in the September 1st edition of the New York Post. That's the June 1st episode of the Get Rich Education podcast that they're citing. Well, a lot of people they don't know who the other author of Rich Dad Poor Dad is, but we're going to have her here with us on the show soon. So some really fascinating episodes coming up. Let's meet today's guest. Returning this week is one of the foremost macroeconomic minds in the world. He was this show's first ever guest nearly 12 years ago on episode seven. A prolific author, he publishes the popular video series Macro Watch at RichardDuncaneconomics.com, and he's really influential. For example, not long ago, he presented his economic policy proposals to congressional members of the House Ways and Means Committee. Hey, it's a warm Get Rich Education. Welcome back to the incomparable Richard Duncan.   Richard Duncan  5:39   Thank you, Keith. Thank you for having me back on.   Keith Weinhold  5:42   I don't know if you and the audience are ready for this. This is some perspective. It recently made news when the U.S. hit its national public debt milestone of $40 trillion. When Richard made his GRE debut here in November of 2014, it was $18 trillion. That national debt has more than doubled since you were first here, Richard.   Richard Duncan  6:07   That's right. The government has been playing probably the leading role in keeping the economy growing, and a couple of times since then has played the sole role in preventing a new Great Depression in the aftermath of the crisis of 2008 and during COVID, it's the massive government budget deficits, often more than a trillion dollars a year. Last couple of years, it's been 1.8 trillion dollars. That's been driving the economy, and whenever it needs some additional support, the Fed steps in and creates a few trillion dollars here and there, and combined they've been keeping the economy growing and, in fact, booming. And wealth has absolutely exploded as a result of the government spending and the Fed money creation. In 2008, the total wealth of all the Americans net worth $60 trillion. Now, it's tripled to $180 trillion. That that is a direct result of the government's intervention through budget deficits and paper money creation by the Fed.   Keith Weinhold  7:14   I will call that the world's least desirable investment portfolio minus 40 t. That is one way to think about it, but when you bring up interventionism, you know something I shared with the audience about a month ago, Richard. It is just remarkable to think about all the crises we've had just since 2020. We had COVID, we had Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we had Israel, Gaza. We had tariffs. Now we've got the war in Iran, and what is the result of all this? Largely due to government interventionism. Oh, both the stock market and real estate market in the U.S. are near all-time highs.   Richard Duncan  7:54   Who would have imagined? But things work very differently now than they did in the old days when money was backed by gold, and the Fed and the government played a much smaller role in the economy. It's a different world now. That was capitalism. This is creditism. Our new economic system is driven by credit growth, and whenever necessary, the government steps in with massive budget deficits, and the Fed steps in with massive money creation to make sure that credit keeps expanding and the economy keeps growing, because if credit doesn't keep expanding, if it even dips a little bit like it started to in 2009, then the whole bubble implodes and we repeat the 1930s Great Depression, probably followed by what happened in the 1940s.   Keith Weinhold  8:39   This is interesting. When you were first here 12 years ago. You talked about how society isn't so much capitalism that it's creditism, and you expounded on that. And before we're done, I know that we have now morphed into a new ism, post-creditism that Richard is going to share with us, it's fascinating. But Richard, since you were last here, the Iran War is new. It's been going on for over six months now. So I'd like to get your thoughts on that, and principally, if the Iran War is going to create lasting inflation or only a temporary energy spike. What are your thoughts?   Richard Duncan  9:20   Let's broaden this out. I know that your listeners are very interested in in real estate, and of course that's very impacted by interest rates. And interest rates are impacted, of course, primarily by inflation. So it is true that the Iran

Keith breaks down the "baseline trap" in investor psychology, showing how rising income and lifestyle creep can quietly undermine the feeling of financial freedom.  He then shares a grounded outlook for U.S. home prices, outlining how inflation, AI-driven job growth, limited inventory, and strong homeowner equity are shaping the market.  He closes with a data-driven look at where population growth is heading through 2040, especially in Texas and Florida, and what that could mean for long-term real estate demand and investing strategy. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/622 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: [email protected] Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Investor psychology often falls into the baseline trap. Learn what's going to happen to home prices over the next year. Then more than half of America's population growth until 2040 will occur in just these two states. All today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Homebuyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6000 homes under management, for a free live webinar the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth again. that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth   Speaker 1  1:34   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:50   Welcome to GRE from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to Jackson, Mississippi, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is Get Rich Education, and Happy Labor Day. Let's talk about your investor psychology, because as you grow your wealth and your portfolio size, there is a trap that you will almost certainly fall into, and I'm not infallible. I've fallen into this trap to some extent too. That is the baseline trap. It's the tendency for every improvement in your income, your wealth, or your lifestyle to become your new normal. Once this happens, the improvement stops feeling like progress, and you need even more just to feel equally successful, if you get used to flying first class and then you have to drop back to coach again, it feels less like flying and more like being deported. Psychologically, we fall into the baseline trap because the human mind evaluates Life relatively, not absolutely. We don't simply ask ourselves how good is my life, how good is my situation. Instead, we ask how does this compare with what I've recently experienced, what I expected, and what others have, and there are a number of forces that drive the baseline trap. One is hedonic adaptation. Hedonic means pleasure seeking. People rapidly adjust to improvements. The first month of receiving a new $5,000 in passive income that feels transformative. After two years, it feels completely ordinary. The income didn't become less valuable. Your nervous system simply stopped registering it as new. Yesterday's luxury became today's wallpaper. A force driving the baseline trap is a shifting reference point. Gains and losses are measured against a mental baseline. Once your portfolio reaches, say, a $2 million net worth, well, your mind soon begins treating the $2 million as mine. You're like, hey, this is mine now, even if much of it came from recent appreciation. A decline to 1.8 million, therefore, feels like losing 200k rather than still having substantially more wealth than you did just a few years ago. Well, instead, you're only focused on the 200k paper loss. Then there's loss aversion psychologically. Losses generally hurt more than equivalent gains feel good. After a higher standard becomes normal, surrendering and. Any part of it feels like some blood-curdling loss. That's why reducing spending from 20k to 15k per month that can feel painful, even if 15k once felt luxurious to you.   Keith Weinhold  5:16   There's also the lifestyle creep component. People convert variable gains into fixed commitments. What do I mean? I mean like a strong income year. Oh, pretty soon that becomes a larger mortgage. Rental cash flow that becomes a vehicle payment. A bonus that becomes private school tuition, portfolio appreciation. Well, that supports new borrowing. See, pleasures that were once optional have now become obligations. And you got to ask, wait, how did that happen to you? You're supposed to have a life of options and not obligations. That's what financial freedom is supposed to be. The baseline then is no longer merely psychological; it becomes embedded in real monthly expenses. Then there's also the dangerous driver of the baseline trap that's called, oh no, social comparison. We commonly measure success against our peers, but instead, what you should do is measure it against your former self. Because as you become wealthier, see your comparison group changes too. If you've got five rentals, you soon stop comparing yourself with someone that owns none, you might even begin comparing yourself with people who own 50 of them, and why not? It's natural, after all. That is where you want to go, despite enormous progress. See, that's how you can feel left further behind. Then there's the recency bias. Your mind gives enormously disproportionate weight to recent experience. A few years of 15% returns, like what happened in 2021 and 2022 in real estate. Oh, you could begin expecting 15% after rapidly appreciating real estate, continued appreciation feels normal. A favorable cycle gets mistaken for the natural baseline, and then when conditions normalize, ordinary performance feels rather defective. Then there's identity inflation. That's a trap. This is when accomplishments become woven into your very identity, like I'm a multi-million-dollar entrepreneur, or I own 20 properties, or my income always grows. Okay, once success becomes identity, maintaining the baseline feels necessary just to preserve your self worth. Now, with this condition, see a temporary setback. It doesn't merely affect the numbers.   Keith Weinhold  8:08   It feels like evidence that you're becoming a lesser person, and the brain rewards progress more than possession. Humans are energized by movement toward a goal, reaching the goal often produces less lasting satisfaction than you expect. Buying the 10th rental creates a dopamine hit, and owning it three years later does not. The investor therefore creates another target, not always because another property is even needed, but because continued pursuit restores the feeling of progress, success erases the memory of constraint. As your wealth grows, it becomes difficult to remember emotionally what financial insecurity even felt like I mean you might intellectually remember earning 60k, but you no longer experience today's 300k income in comparison with it. Your comparison point quietly changes from your former life to your best recent year. The paradox is that your circumstances improve faster than your experience of them? The goal is not to stop growing; it is to prevent every improvement from becoming a new psychological necessity. Keep growing your means, but don't let success redefine enough every time you achieve it, don't let it redefine enough. Let's say you acquire rentals and you do generate another 5k per month. The trap is that your spending and expectations gradually rise by 5k. You're wealthier, but you don't. Don't feel freer. Instead of investments buying freedom, they merely finance a more expensive baseline, and it can distort how you view your portfolio. 10 properties once felt like an extraordinary accomplishment, and soon 10 feels ordinary, and 20 becomes necessary. You keep moving the finish line, and this is closely related to hedonic adaptation and lifestyle creep. But it extends beyond spending because your definition of enough keeps on rising. So the antidote certainly is not living small forever-it's deliberately separating the growth rates of your assets and your lifestyle. What you want to do is grow your means faster than you grow your baseline. Really, that's the key. You're gonna be more satisfied. Instead of simply living below your means, you sure do want to grow your means, but don't let every gain become a permanent new obligation. Let some additional cash flow purchase you things like time, resilience, and optionali

Keith explores how real estate strategies have shifted from the 1980s to today and explains why investors need to adapt deal structures to changing interest rates, lending conditions, and market cycles.  He highlights current opportunities in new construction and builder rate buydowns, along with the long-term benefits of fixed-rate debt.  Keith is joined by economic futurist and author Richard Vague, who challenges conventional beliefs about inflation and interest rates and explains how government intervention, war, and supply constraints shape asset prices and leverage decisions. Together, they provide a big-picture framework for understanding how today's macro environment affects real estate investing decisions. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/621 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: [email protected] Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Learn how dramatically real estate has changed from the 1980s through the late 2020s. We'll be sure that your approach is changing with it. Then a great guest and I discuss how war and future calamities will affect mortgage rates, inflation, and your real estate today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Home Buyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth. Again, that September 30th. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:35   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:51   Welcome to GRE from Cambridge, England, to Cambridge, Massachusetts, and across 188 world nations. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're inside Get Rich Education. You could be doing anything with your time. I'm grateful that you choose to listen to me every week. You know, real estate investors sometimes say, "Ah, there aren't any deals anymore. What they usually mean is the deal structure that they learned five years ago stopped working. There are always opportunities in real estate, but your approach changes with interest rates, lending standards, inventory, construction, government policy, and just the overall economic cycle. The best investors don't wait for yesterday's market to return. That's like someone still hoping for Blockbuster Video Store to reopen. They identify what today's market is offering instead. Just consider this historic retrospective on real estate investing from the Reagan administration to today, in 1981, the 30-year mortgage rate peaked above 18.6%. I mean, just imagine proudly telling your friends that you locked in at 17% before rates went higher. That mortgage needed its own defibrillator. By 1984, rates were still near 16%. The strategy then, the approach, was for a buyer to assume the existing owner's lower rate mortgage that they locked in a few years earlier, perhaps in the late 70s, that's how you got a good deal, assuming that existing owners lower-rate mortgage. You can't do that so easily today.   Keith Weinhold  3:50   By the late 80s and early 90s, the opportunity shifted from assuming attractive debt to buying distressed properties. The S and L crisis was upon us. Savings and loan failed lenders found themselves holding piles of distressed real estate, so investors bought foreclosures and REOs at discounts. They improved neglected buildings and then they repositioned them for income. You probably know that REO stands for real estate owned on a bank's balance sheet. All REO means is bank-owned property, but that's what you did. You found those, and then you scooped up a deal that way. As the 1990s progressed, interest rates declined, and loans also became really easy to obtain. We were tilting into the loosey-goosey easy lending environment. In the 90s, it was popular to buy an undervalued property, renovate it, raise the rent, and refinance it based on the improved value. That process later got a buzzy acronym and became known as the Burr strategy: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat. By 2005, financing got more creative. This is when I was a new real estate investor. I remember obtaining what were known as 8015 five combo loans. This meant an 80% first mortgage, 15% second mortgage, and 5% down payment. You remember those? If you've been around for a while, you do. And see, this way you could avoid paying PMI, and you could control property with an astounding 20 to one leverage ratio due to that 5% down payment, but soon enough lending just got absolutely too creative and easy. The quiet lending party turned into a boisterous kegger, delivering the 2008 financial. crisis, and pretty soon I could no longer get any loans. From 2009 through the early 2010s, you could buy foreclosures and short sales at enormous discounts if you could find the loan.   Keith Weinhold  6:20   Financing was tough, but prices were super low. It might have even made sense to pay cash at that time. Fear was everywhere right after the global financial crisis. I mean, it really took courage to act when others were hiding under the bed. By 2020 and 2021, the opportunity changed from cheap property to cheap money. Mortgage rates dropped below an absurd 3% as a result of the COVID pandemic. You could lock up extraordinarily cheap debt for less than the inflation rate, and then let inflation nibble away at it like Pac-Man. Of course, a lot of us are still benefiting from that today, but that opportunity is long gone now. But it doesn't mean that deals are gone today. Where's the opportunity? One of the best ones is often found in new construction, large build. have got to keep moving their inventory as they build these homes because they have got to keep their crews busy. An unsold house for a builder-I mean-that produces as much income as an unplugged Bitcoin miner. Rather than make conspicuous price reductions, builders use their financial muscle to buy down mortgage rates for you, often in the 5% range or even lower.   Keith Weinhold  7:52   Builders might also offer you closing cost assistance, upgraded finishes, or other incentives that a single resale seller just can't match. So from the Reagan administration to today, over 45 years, the winning strategy just keeps morphing. It started out back then as assume the loan, over to buy distress, then to renovate and refi, then it was a creative financing wave, and then cheap debt, and today take the builders buy down. That's where we are. The mistake is deciding in advance what a deal is supposed to look like. The best deal structure changes, and of course, it's going to change again. The investor who keeps fighting the last war is always going to conclude that the opportunity has disappeared, but it hasn't. It's just changed clothing. Still, though, today's new purchases now-they're not as good as the deals that they were five years ago, but the best investors keep investing. They keep adding to their portfolio. It's what they've always done. Absolutely zero winning investors that are successful over time look back and say things like, "I didn't add anything to my portfolio during that 10-year span for this or that reason, the market changes, and you've got to adapt with it. That's a way to think about it. Take solace in knowing a few things. Deal structure changes over time are inevitable. And larger picture, you are investing in a product that is sustainable residential real estate in the form of long-term rentals. These entry-level properties are a scarce asset that people are going to continue to need. I mean, that's what we do here. Just compare. To the fads that we avoid around here, like NFTs, metaverse real estate, which we discussed on the show a few years ago, but said is highly dangerous, eye buying, value add apartment syndications, SPACs, or how about ICO funded altcoins? We don't chase the latest hot thing here at GRE. It is about what's sustainable, necessary, and cannot be easily disrupted by AI, and that's one reason that Get Rich Education is still standing strong after 52 episodes every year for almost 12 years now. Shortly, we're going to bring in a rather esteemed guest today on the future direction of interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, h

Keith debunks alarmist predictions of an 80–95% housing crash and explains why inflation, constrained supply, and strong demand continue to put upward pressure on home prices.  He breaks down key trends in renter mobility, highlights how the AI boom is driving record-breaking rents in San Francisco, and contrasts "dopamine culture" and money maxing with GRE's philosophy of growing one's means through income property and leverage.  Keith also discusses how the Seven-Figure Solution framework helps real estate investors more effectively integrate properties, taxes, insurance, and retirement planning.  Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/620 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: [email protected] Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. An alarmist calls for a housing price crash of 80 to 95 percent. We'll listen to it. This city's rents are up 26 percent annually. The rise of dopamine culture and money maxing has made its way into personal finance. Then an invitation to join us for a special event today on Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  0:29   What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Homebuyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms MidSeal has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth. Again, that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:35   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:51   Welcome to GRE from Naples, Italy, to Naples, Florida, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one of America's longest-running and most listened-to shows in the real estate world. This is Get Rich Education, and I'm Keith Weinhold. Yes, the very founder of this snaggle-toothed operation right here. I'm a longtime real estate investor myself, erstwhile writer for both Forbes and the Rich Dad Advisors, serving on the Forbes Real Estate Council, you can also see my work in the USA Today and Business Insider. I'm the creator of Real Estate Pays Five Ways and the Inflation Triple Crown. Oh, after all that, really, I'm just a shaved mammal with slack jaw, a highly leveraged hominid of the landed gentry, right before I discuss the housing price crash of 80 to 95% you know, keep in mind that most people think that if you're in real estate, then you've got to be either a realtor or a landlord. I am neither a realtor nor a landlord. People also think that it takes tons of money. It does not. Now you could pursue no money down strategies, but that takes some time to learn and skill to develop. Now I was a landlord in the early years of my real estate investing, but after about six years of that, I hired a property manager and never looked back. Therefore, keeping this mostly passive, a 20 to 25 percent down payment on a carefully selected residential rental property includes ones that today can still have purchase prices below 200k. That's purchased in a geographically investor advantaged market. Okay, that is the center of what we do here because when you own property this way, now you've got the margin where you can pay a property manager to enjoy the five ways that you're paid mostly passively. Be a savvy borrower.   Keith Weinhold  4:02   Now, when you're between deals and accumulating capital to add the next piece of property to your rental portfolio, that's where you can flip and do the opposite in the short term and be a real estate lender for perhaps an eight to 10% stable return. That's what I do, rather than getting three and a half percent, which is the going rate today in a high yield savings account. So be a lender between deals in the short term, or you're a savvy borrower long term. Now the late analyst at Housing Wire, and he was also a past guest here on the show, Logan Modashami, he brought this 80 to 95% housing price crash media piece to my attention. It's in the form of a meta reel that got a lot of attention. Let's play it. I mean, this type of nonsense circulates out. It's not founded on anything substantive, and this just absolutely does not serve anybody. You've got to take this type of thing as entertainment, but it's being presented in a serious, informative way, and just listen to the basis for the claim.    Hayden Weston  5:19   The United States housing market is about to collapse 80 to 95 percent, which means that homes that were worth 1.5 million are going to be worth 300,000. The reason is simple: the U.S. housing market has reached its most unaffordable level in history. People cannot afford to buy homes, and if people cannot buy homes, the market must correct. The question is how hard the market is going to crash, not if it will. According to CPI and price history data, this is predicted to be worse than the 2008 housing bubble. We are going to see prices drop 80 to 95 percent.   Keith Weinhold  6:02   A housing price collapse of 80 to 95 percent. This is from a platform called Hayden Trades. It has got to be the worst example of trying to steal attention rather than serving people. Gosh, don't even make 20% or 50% crash predictions anymore go for far higher, I guess. He says it is according to the CPI and price history data. This doesn't even make sense. Now the low affordability mentioned that part is true, and this is what's slowed home price appreciation. But here in the late 2020s, there was more upward pressure on home prices, not downward inflationary pressure, which is rampant. That is poised to raise replacement cost because a home is a bundle of land, labor, lumber, concrete, copper, and energy. America's best job markets face land and regulatory constraints that pressures prices upward, and regulations are not easily repealed either. There's a large reservoir of sideline buyers that still want to own, and single-family home construction is woefully insufficient, keeping the supply down. Indeed, there is more upward pressure on home prices, not downward. This coming inflation wave, that's exacerbated by war, is unfortunately, or fortunately, if you're positioned, it's poised to widen the K-shaped economy where winners win bigger and losers lose more. The boat is leaving the dock. Are you on it?   Keith Weinhold  7:54   The distance between the boat and the dock just keeps increasing, and eventually you won't be able to make the leap, the jump from the boat to the dock. Now, in the near term, because we're approaching the fall season, when you hear stats about median home prices, note that prices are lower in autumn and winter than they are in spring and summer. It happens pretty much every year. Now, why is this? Well, one reason is that a lot of people don't think about is simply the fact that smaller houses get sold in the winter compared to the summer. And why would this be? This is because families with school-age children who need larger homes get their deals done in summer months before school starts. That is one reason why median home prices are higher in the summer than they are in the winter. When you look at a long-term price chart of homes, this is why you see peaks each summer and dips each winter. Now, investors like us. Now we're not buying so much for school-age children considerations, but this phenomenon affects the median prices that you see quoted in most any market. That is how that works, and why homes present better in the summer too. Green lawns, Leaves, flowers, and natural light improve curb appeal. Some say buy when the snow is flying, sell when the flowers are blooming.   Keith Weinhold  9:32   Shortly, I want to tell you about the city with rents that are up 26% year over year, and there's no end in sight to those rent increases, either. But first, there's a significant national real estate trend. Now, a lot of times, the discussion about the rental market centers around the level of rents or the vacancy rate, and those metrics sure do matter. But what about tenant retention? That is. Renter mobility rate. How long do residents stay? Well, renter mobility is down, down, down. They are not moving around. That's the big trend. Tenants are staying longer. Renters are waiting longer to buy homes than prior generations did. I mean a lot of p

Keith breaks down why global crises, geopolitical shocks, and nonstop "doom" headlines haven't stopped stocks and real estate from reaching near all-time highs, and what that means for investors focused on inflation-resistant assets.  He also discusses Memphis as a surprising cash-flow market poised to benefit from the AI boom, sharing details on an upcoming webinar with Mid South Homebuyers.  Keith is joined by real estate investor and educator Jared Garfield to unpack the "Seven-Figure Solution," a strategy that combines cash-flowing rentals with tax-advantaged life insurance to create liquidity, reduce risk, and support long-term retirement income.  Together, they explore how disciplined portfolio growth, smart leverage, and coordinated tax planning can help real estate investors better align their assets with their long-term financial goals. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/619 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: [email protected] Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold  0:02   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. The world is about to end again. It's the economic disaster that never arrives. I'll break it down. Then you've been earning money and investing well all these years. How does it all go together? It can culminate in the seven-figure solution, it's about seeing your future today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. And September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Homebuyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6,000 homes under management, for a free live webinar, the likes of which I've never done before, we're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth again that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:39   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:55   Welcome to GRE from Kankakee, Illinois, to Cherokee, Iowa, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is Get Recid Education, and the world is about to end. Even if you survive, your portfolio surely won't. Oh, jeez. At least that's the impression you get from mass media and what I'll call the Doom Scroll Industrial Complex. Fear creates urgency. Urgency attracts eyeballs. Eyeballs attract ad dollars. And I guess that using a slogan like "everything will probably be fine" well, that's never been a great ratings strategy. Now, can what has happened since 2020. Just this cheery little sequence: COVID, then Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, tariffs, and then the war in Iran. All that just since 2020. I mean, that right there sounds less like an economic timeline and more like a movie plot, or that the world is repeatedly spinning the wheel of misfortune. Yet after all of that, what is the result? Both stocks and residential real estate are near all-time highs. Apparently, the apocalypse has been postponed yet again-at least economically speaking. Now let's zoom out and break down these threats and a few more, all just since 2020, because 2020 is the year where, of course, you had the COVID-19 pandemic, economic shutdowns, the fastest major stock bear market in history, supply chain breakdown. You saw empty shelves, and there was unprecedented government intervention from the Paycheck Protection Program to stimulus checks to mortgage loan forbearance. Then, in 2021 and 2022, you had post-COVID inflation and supply shortages. Now, this was more of a result, not strictly geopolitical, but a major investment threat, and that led to aggressive interest rate hikes. From 2022 to the present, you have Russia's invasion of Ukraine, energy and food shocks came from that, sanctions, instability over in Europe, and really a heightened nuclear risk in 2023. You had the U.S. regional banking crisis. Remember SVB, yes, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic. They raised fears of a financial contagion that would spread like fat. Than a secret in a small town, it actually made me buy some gold. From 2023 to the present, you had the Israel-Hamas war and this broad Middle East instability, Hezbollah attacks, Houthi attacks, Red Sea shipping disruptions. It's almost like a geopolitical group project. And then from 2025 to the present, you have renewed U.S. tariffs and a global trade war, and this year you have the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. That is the biggest current geopolitical investment threat because it combines all of these things: war, oil disruption, inflation, higher interest rates, and a recession risk. So it's a lot like this particularly unpleasant smoothie that's been blended together.   Keith Weinhold  5:55   All right. Well, all of that-that is just an absurd amount of uncertainty and disruption only since 2020, and though major markets are at all-time highs in the face of this, let's acknowledge that some were hurt here, like apartment building owners vulnerable to interest rate resets, and certain commercial sectors like office. Even worse, let's be sensitive to the fact that COVID in wars have resulted in a real loss of life. GRE's enduring strategy of primarily owning long-term residential rentals with fixed-rate debt has been comparatively really resilient. In fact, these calamities-they probably made you better off from the inflation that it has spurred. More people work from home. Well, that means that they're consuming our product while higher inflation debased our debt and jacked up our property values and our rents. And you know somehow every. single generation thinks that their collection of crises is uniquely terrifying, and it is not. And what do I mean by this? Well, in the 1980s, people feared war with the Soviet Union, the Cold War. A global population explosion so bad that millions or billions of people would surely die from hunger. You had the AIDS crisis. You had a hole in the ozone layer. Well, all those things. Virtually zero investors make decisions based on that stuff: an imminent Soviet attack or mass starvation from overpopulation. There is one thing that is 100% certain here, and that is that more shocks are coming. In case you don't want to sleep well, you can get worked up over the certainty of future calamities, artificial intelligence is making cyber attacks faster and more scalable. AI has even created entirely novel viruses. A confrontation between China and Taiwan that could create risk in the semiconductor space.   Keith Weinhold  8:18   A blockade that might disrupt the world's advanced chip supply, creating more inflation and more uncertainty. Here is what's changed, though, for what investors care about. You know what has changed with today's set of calamities versus those of the 1980s and earlier, because there is something, and it's a big deal for investors. Here's what's changed: recent history shows that the government does more to intervene during disasters, stimulus checks, liquidity programs where they're printing trillions, bailouts, pushing interest rates down to almost zero, quantitative easing. How about a foreclosure moratorium? Anything you know during COVID, it was a lot of these things, and it was the CARES Act, and it was a student loan payment pause. I mean, the Federal Reserve even set up emergency credit facilities. We now know that when the economic building catches fire, policymakers they rarely stand around admiring the flames. They just flood the place with currency. So the best investors they keep prudently building real estate portfolios in the face of risk, not the absence of risk, because the latter does not exist. This incessant government intervention, whether you agree with it or not, it gives you more safety cushions the next time that things fall apart. That's why what appears risk. Is still risky, but less so. So there is more incentive to take on prudent risk than I've ever seen. You know, no politician wants America to fall apart under their watch. So increasingly, they'll just paper over the problem by printing, printing, printing, and then, therefore, the resultant inflation, the consequence of this, that can be dealt with under the next president's watch, not theirs. In fact, future calamities they almost make you want to own scarce real assets that benefit from inflation, not a hedge, a benefit. Trying to time every war, election, banking crisis, tariff announceme