The China-Global South Podcast

The U.S., Japan, and other G7 countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals to end their reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Every week, there's news of another mining deal for cobalt, lithium, and other resources essential to powering 21st century technology. But the race to control critical resources may already be over. Decades before countries in the Global West recognized the importance of these minerals and metals, China quietly built out a vast network of mining and refining operations. Nicholas Niarchos, author of the new bestselling book "The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth," joins Eric & Géraud to discuss the history of the battery metal competition and why China's early moves in this space may have given it an insurmountable lead. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode: Why everyone sees the critical minerals supply chain differently and who's missing the full picture The making of "The Elements of Power" — one journalist's journey from Greece to Congo Artisanal mining, child labor, and the political ecosystem keeping it alive How China built its Congo mining empire over 30 years while the West looked away The Sicomines "Deal of the Century" and what it revealed about Chinese strategy Small Chinese traders, violence, and the uneasy coexistence on Congo's mining frontier Indonesia, Western Sahara and the global pattern of extractive exploitation Why the US critical minerals push may already be too little too late Show Notes: Purchase a copy of The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth: https://a.co/d/0g8xV4n8 Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement.  Is this a strategic disaster for China, or does the chaos actually create unexpected openings? Andrea Ghiselli, research director at The ChinaMed Project and a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter, joins Eric to discuss the stark differences in how this conflict is discussed in China and in the Global West. 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode: The US-Israel strikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei Why Chinese defense stocks surged to a 10-year high on the Shanghai Stock Exchange The "ally" myth: why China was never going to militarily defend Iran The collapse of China's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic détente Asymmetric warfare — why Iran's cheap drones may outlast America's expensive missiles China's energy security: oil stockpiling strategy and Strait of Hormuz exposure US munitions depletion and what it means for a potential Taiwan scenario What to watch in Chinese discourse if the Islamic Republic faces collapse Show Notes: The ChinaMed Project: How Chinese Experts are Reacting to the American-Israeli Strikes on Iran by Andrea Ghiselli: https://tinyurl.com/mr439hdp  The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/484p6bbn  The China-Global South Project: Chinese Nationalist Voices Dismissed Online After Iran Strike Defies Predictions by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/bdenrfyd  People to Follow Reference in this Episode: @GeringTuvia, analyst at Planet Nine, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub @EvanFeigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The Panamanian government formally took over the two ports operated by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison this week at both ends of the Panama Canal. U.S. officials celebrated the move as part of their larger effort to expel China from the Western Hemisphere. Washington has now set its sights on the Chinese-owned Chancay mega port in Peru. But given the extent of Chinese engagement in Latin America, most notably the fact that the region does more than half-a-trillion dollars of trade annually with China, is it even possible for the U.S. to expel the Chinese? Pedro Armada, a Panama City-based risk consultant who closely follows the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America, joins Eric to discuss what happens next following the expulsion of CK Hutchison from the canal zone and what it means for the rest of Latin America. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: • Panama's takeover of Chinese-operated ports • U.S. pressure on Peru's Chinese-built Chancay port • Trump's Western Hemisphere strategy toward China • Narrative battles and misinformation in Latin America • Trade ties that make decoupling from China difficult • Whether Beijing is waiting out U.S. political cycles Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: The Paradox of Panama's "Rule of Law": Hutchison Ports vs. Minera Panama by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/4vcta4tw  The China-Global South Project: Panama and the New U.S. Strategy to Counter China in Latin America by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/msspbmbw Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Shenzhen-based Transsion Holdings is now a massive Chinese technology company that few people outside of Africa and certain parts of Asia have heard of. Even in China, the brand, now the world's 5th-largest mobile phone producer, remains largely unknown. Transsion gained notoriety after it entered the African market in 2006. Back then, the world's largest phone brands all but ignored African consumers, selling low-end, late-model devices designed primarily for Western and Asian consumers. The Chinese company saw an opportunity and tweaked the software on its phones to optimize photos for darker skin tones, and added a suite of features like dual SIM cards, dustproofing, and longer battery life to sell sub-$100 phones to Africa's booming youth market. That formula worked, and the company's three brands, Tecno, Infinix, and iTel, have dominated the market for more than a decade. But little is known about how Transsion achieved its success in Africa. Lu Miao, an assistant professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, joins Eric & Cobus to lay out the company's strategy and why it was so effective in a market that others largely ignored. Purchase the book: The Transsion Approach: Translating Chinese Mobile Technology in Africa by Lu Miao: https://a.co/d/04AKaajZ 📌 Topics covered in this episode: • Why rural-first strategy beat Silicon Valley-style scaling • How African distributors helped shape product design and marketing • The importance of dual SIM cards, long battery life, and localized features • The role of Carlcare repair centers in building long-term loyalty • The shift from feature phones to smartphones and rising competition • Growing patent lawsuits and the next phase of AI-driven competition Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia." This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military hegemon in this theater, China is steadily becoming the indispensable economic power, providing access to vast pools of capital, new technology, and expanding trade. Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a director at the geopolitical advisory firm McLarty Associates, joins Eric from Washington, D.C., to discuss his new book that explores how the U.S., China, and other powers are adapting to this new expanded view of the Middle East known as "West Asia." Purchase the book: West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East by Mohammed Soliman 📌 Topics covered in this episode: • Why the Middle East is increasingly being reframed as West Asia • China's quiet diplomatic outreach to Israel and the Palestinians • Surging Chinese trade and bank lending in the Gulf • The Asianization of Gulf economies through trade, energy, and demographics • Whether China will translate economic power into military presence • America's role as a resident security power with 50000 troops in the region • Why U.S. grand strategy may require doing more with less in West Asia • The India Middle East Europe Corridor and connectivity as instruments of power • AI compute infrastructure and the Gulf's post-oil transformation • Israel's evolving role in regional security architecture • How great power competition is reshaping alliances and coalitions • Whether values or interests will define the next phase of U.S. engagement Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South. Congress nearly tripled the DRC's budget from $60 billion to $205 billion to be used over the next five years. While that is a substantial increase, it's just a small fraction of what Chinese entities spend each year on BRI projects. Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford, researchers at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., join Eric to discuss why they contend it's a bad idea for the DFC to compete head-on with China, rather than focus on its original mandate to build market capacity in poorer nations. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: • The expanded mandate and six-year reauthorization of the US Development Finance Corporation • Why countering China now drives US development finance strategy • How the DFC compares with China's Belt and Road Initiative • The limits of development finance as a tool of great power competition • Critical minerals energy, and supply chains as DFC priorities • The Lobito Corridor and overlapping US-China interests • Why Global South countries resist choosing sides • How the DFC could compete more effectively by focusing on development Show Notes: Responsible Statecraft: US capital investments for something other than beating China by Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy. Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity. And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way. Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: China's Belt and Road investment surge in 2025 Why the BRI narrative of decline no longer holds Africa's return as a top destination for Chinese investment The rise of fossil fuel projects alongside green energy How geopolitics and US trade policy shape BRI decisions The growing role of Chinese private companies overseas What the latest BRI data signals for the years ahead Show Notes: Green Finance and Development Center: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 Financial Times: Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab by Edward White The Economist: China's Belt and Road Initiative is booming again Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system. Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role. Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: Decline of the U.S.-led international order Small states' strategies in a multipolar world China's growing influence in South Asia Hedging, alignment, and strategic autonomy Lessons for the wider Global South Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States. Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity." Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: China's sharp drop in Africa lending and what it signals Why big Chinese infrastructure projects are fading U.S. Africa relations after USAID and PEPFAR cuts The leaked State Department email and Africa as a "peripheral" priority America's collapsing credibility in Africa and beyond Why China is seen as an opportunity, not an ally Critical minerals and the limits of extractive diplomacy What the shifting U.S.-China-Africa balance means next Show Notes: Post Strategy: On China by Judd Devermont The Guardian: Head of US Africa bureau urges staff to highlight US 'generosity' despite aid cuts by Aisha Down China Power Project: US-China-Africa Relations: A View from Africa by Lina Benabdallah Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequences for China as it moves to reshape a part of this new international order to better align with its interests. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior research scholar at Columbia University, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this is such a pivotal time for China as it moves to become a peer power of the United States, at least economically, without triggering the so-called "Thuycides Trap" that dictates this kind of rivalry often leads to war. Show Notes: Foreign Affairs: China's Long Economic War — How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition by Zongyuan Zoe Liu 📌 Topics covered in this episode: Mark Carney's Davos speech and the declaration of a global rupture The collapse of the rules-based international order What a post-American world looks like for middle powers Economic coercion and the weaponization of supply chains Where China fits in the new global order China's long economic war and leverage strategy The Global South's trust gap with China Why the debt trap narrative persists despite evidence China as an opportunity rather than ally in emerging markets The rapid erosion of U.S. global credibility Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China was among the first and most vocal opponents of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Curiously, though, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch military strikes against Iran as Tehran dealt with a massive popular uprising, China was largely silent. Both Venezuela and Iran have high-level strategic partnerships with China, yet the Chinese leadership's responses to the crises in each country are radically different. William (Bill) Figueroa, a leading China-Iran scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to discuss his latest CGSP column, which explains Beijing's low-key response and why the strategy is often misunderstood by many U.S. and European stakeholders. 📌 Topics covered in this episode: Why Iran's latest protests are more serious than past unrest How the crackdown escalated and what makes it unprecedented U.S. regime-change talk and the "boxing in China" narrative China's real exposure to Iranian and Venezuelan oil Debunking the myth of a deep, all-weather China–Iran alliance Why Beijing stayed quiet on Iran but reacted strongly on Venezuela Hard power limits and why China won't intervene militarily The quiet influence China already exerts behind the scenes Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make such declarations less than a week after Maduro's downfall. After all, U.S.-led military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all started well but ended up being very costly failures for Washington. 📌 Topics covered include: China's reaction to Maduro's detention Why "China setback" claims may be premature Beijing's messaging vs. Chinese social media Why Venezuela ≠ Taiwan China's economic exposure in Venezuela The rise and fall of oil-backed loans What "all-weather partnership" really means Panama Canal risks for China Limits of U.S. hemispheric leverage China's Latin America knowledge gap Beijing's coup-response playbook Military lessons—and misreadings Instability as a threat to China's trade model What signals to watch next Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player." But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated. Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China. 📌 Topics covered include: China's response to the U.S. detention of Nicolás Maduro Why Venezuela matters to China: oil, loans, and exposure Why Venezuela is not a Taiwan precedent The U.S. "Our Hemisphere" doctrine and spheres of influence China's special envoy visit to Caracas Short-term setbacks vs. long-term gains for China Electoral pushback against China in Latin America Panama tensions over ports and Chinese-linked infrastructure Why Latin America cannot quickly decouple from China Military force vs. economic leverage in U.S.–China rivalry Show Notes: The China-Global South Project: Q&A: Maduro's Fall Tests China's Influence in Washington's Backyard by Alonso Illueca The China-Global South Project: U.S. Strike in Venezuela Intensifies Chinese Media Debate Over Taiwan by Han Zhen Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth      

In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026.  📌 Topics covered include: Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures Soybeans and South America's growing leverage in U.S.–China trade China–India détente and what it changes (and doesn't) G20 turbulence around South Africa and global governance fractures 2026 outlook: Southeast Asia rivalry, Zimbabwe lithium value-add, Senegal hidden debt Show Notes: The Financial Times: The American company seeking to counter China in Africa by David Pilling and Leslie Hook Foreign Policy: China's Appetite for Rosewood Is Causing Chaos in Africa by Joshua Eisenman and Caroline Costello Environmental Investigation Agency: New Report Finds That Home Depot Sold Illegally Sourced Tropical Wood for Years Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies. Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers. Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy. 📌 Key topics explored: How China defines and uses foreign aid Aid vs development finance in China's system The role of Chinese development banks Myths around "free" Western and Chinese aid Aid as diplomatic influence China's engagement with regional blocs (AU, ASEAN) What China's aid strategy means for the West Show Notes: Listen to season 2 of Face Off: The U.S. vs. China on Spotify Join the Discussion: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social Follow CGSP in Spanish and French: French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth  

Soon after USAID was closed in February, speculation circulated that China would move quickly to fill the void left by the United States. That did not happen. While the Chinese did step in to provide modest additional funding for a handful of programs, like demining initiatives in Cambodia and support for the Africa CDC in Addis Ababa, overall, there's been no significant change in China's foreign aid programs. That did not surprise Alicia Chen, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, who noted in a recent Foreign Affairs article that Beijing is very tactical with where and how it distributes overseas development assistance. Alicia joins Eric to discuss Beijing's foreign aid strategy and how it differs from other major donors. 📌 Key topics in this episode: How China defines foreign aid Aid versus development finance in China Why China's aid budget is relatively small The role of Chinese development banks Myths about "free" Western and Chinese aid Aid as a tool of diplomatic influence China's focus on regional organizations African Union and ASEAN case studies Donkey hide trade and AU diplomacy What China's aid strategy means for the West JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists? Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include: Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges. 📌 Key topics in this episode: • The U.S.–China rivalry and why middle powers feel trapped • Australia's dilemma: China is the biggest customer AND biggest security concern • Why the Pacific Islands have become a frontline of strategic contestation • Joint patrols in the South China Sea and shifting regional alliances • Whether the Five Eyes model still works in a world where U.S. power is unpredictable • How Japan, South Korea, and Canada are rethinking security and trade • Why "rules-based order" no longer resonates across the Global South • China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and what it actually means for Africa • Why many countries fear mass migration more than great-power conflict • Why middle powers still lack a clear, forward-looking vision JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments. Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and African Parliaments. Drawing on extensive fieldwork in Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, Batsani-Ncube explains how China's parliamentary construction boom works, why African governments welcome it, and what he calls "subtle power"—a form of elite-level influence that sits between soft and sharp power. 📌 Key topics in this episode: Why China builds African parliamentary buildings — and why African governments accept them "Subtle power" vs. soft power vs. sharp power The politics behind construction, design, and land selection How these buildings shape legislative capacity and political identity Case studies: Lesotho, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Congo-Brazzaville Does this compromise sovereignty? Or strengthen parliaments? Are these buildings really vectors for Chinese espionage? 📘 Purchase China and African Parliaments by Innocent Batsani-Ncube on Amazon JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match. Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" as the "engineering state," a model defined by massive investments in infrastructure, strategic planning, and so-called "process knowledge" gleaned from the country's rapid industrial development. Now, more and more, the Chinese government touts this development model as an example for other countries in the Global South to emulate. Dan joins Eric to discuss whether the so-called "engineering state" is replicable elsewhere or if it's a uniquely Chinese phenomenon. CHAPTERS: • Setting the Stage – China's rise from rural poverty to industrial superpower • The Engineering State – How China builds, plans, and organizes at a massive scale • Roots of the Model – East Asian development traditions and Soviet legacies • Infrastructure as Strategy – High-speed rail, bridges, airports, and the costs behind them • Industrial Capacity – Manufacturing clusters, supply chains, and process knowledge • The Speed Advantage – Why Chinese firms move faster than global competitors • Tech Transfer Debates – Joint ventures, old IP, and myths about forced transfers • Subsidies and Support – What Chinese industrial subsidies do—and what they don't • Exporting the Model – Limits of replication in Africa, Asia, and the Global South • The China Price – How scale, logistics, and workforce learning lock in dominance • Internal Tensions – Debt, underused infrastructure, and diminishing returns • Shifting Priorities – Xi's push away from consumer tech and toward strategic industries • Global Backlash – Overcapacity, trade pushback, and rising protectionism • Future Crossroads – Why China's development engine is losing momentum • Lessons for the Global South – What countries can adapt—and what they must avoid JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander  Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance. But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their immense productive capacity, enabling them to produce both low-tech sneakers and high-tech semiconductors at a scale and cost that are unrivaled. Now, as developing countries around the world seek to move up the value chain, they will have to compete head-on against the dreaded "China Price." James Kynge, who covered China for nearly 30 years at the Financial Times, delved into this challenge in a fascinating audiobook that came out earlier this year, "Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate." James joins Eric from London to explain how China's ability to produce a $6 toaster exemplifies the country's enormous manufacturing advantage that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to match. CHAPTERS: • Introduction – The $6 toaster and the global value chain crisis • The Flying Geese Model – How automation broke development's old path • China's Dual Reality – A continent-sized economy of billionaires and low-wage labor • Industrial Clusters – The unbeatable advantage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta • The Global South's Dilemma – Competing against the "China price" • Automation and Inequality – Why manufacturing isn't moving offshore • The $1 Trillion Surplus – Trade backlash and global tensions • Searching for Solutions – Industrial policy and self-strengthening in the Global South • Winners and Losers – Cheap exports, consumer gains, and producer pain • Political Risk – Xi Jinping's lesson from Western deindustrialization • The Humanoid Robot Moment – From $6 toasters to $6,000 robots • China's Auto Revolution – BYD and the new wave of affordable EVs • The Double-Edged Future – Opportunity and disruption in China's rise SHOW NOTES: Financial Times: Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate by James Kynge Financial Times: China's plan to reshape world trade on its own terms by James Kynge and Keith Fray JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH & SPANISH:  French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth