Stansberry Investor Hour

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Ben Hunt back to the show. Ben founded Epsilon Theory, a newsletter with more than 100,000 readers that examines markets through the lens of narrative. He's also the president and co-founder of Perscient, an AI research firm and software company.   Ben kicks things off by explaining why interest rates have been going up and why the rise might not be as much of a short-term event as folks believe. He says that while the war in the Middle East has contributed to the short term, there is such a surge of borrowing coming from the Big Tech companies that the government sees this as a chance to make money from it. And unlike the conflict that has no definite end date and could conclude relatively soon, the hyperscalers will be borrowing for a greater period of time. Ben says that those companies are the new "too big to fail," so they will do whatever it takes to protect themselves from a loss, including obtaining a government backstop on their debt. But he wants there to be a limit to how much the businesses can gain in the event of continued rapid success. (0:00)    Next, Ben shares why there could be concerns for annuity reinsurers. While the insurance industry can handle rising interest rates, if they increase too much, too quickly, that jeopardizes wealth managers who advise their clients to put their money in annuities. And with insurers using Treasurys as a hedge, if rates also have an impact on the Treasurys, they'll be devastated. And then, Ben wonders with all of the data-center build-out spending whether there will be room for three competitors at the top. (21:17)    Finally, Ben provides his thoughts on AI. He believes that AI is becoming so integrated into our way of life that it has changed our way of thinking. Additionally, because it has surpassed being used for labor and has reached the point where it can "think" as well as humans, occupations like mathematicians may no longer be needed, and those who pursue such fields do so as a hobby. But while AI can provide us with rapid answers and is used in writing, Ben believes that as long as the need for conversation exists, humans will always be at the center of creating – and that cannot be replaced. (37:45)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Bridget Bennett to the show. Bridget is the digital media producer for MarketBeat, where she tracks down market developments and financial news and conducts interviews for MarketBeat's videos and livestreams. In today's episode, she flips the script and interviews Dan in a special collaboration.   Bridget and Dan kick things off by discussing diesel. Dan says that the commodity sits at the heart of the global energy crisis. And while the lack of diesel fuel will impact fuel for vehicles and powering electricity, there are shortages in other areas as well, such as copper (and, as a result, homebuilding). Between America's diminishing supply and the war in Iran, refiners have been doing well over the past year. Dan says existing owners of refinery stocks should do well as they hold their shares, but he's being cautious about the future as President Donald Trump's plans on banning imports without building new refiners could have a negative impact. (0:00)   Next, the two expand further on the different impacts that the diesel shortage brings. Dan says that the conflict in the Middle East is having a devastating impact on oil production. Not only has production ceased at thousands of Middle East wells, but in many cases, the wells will require expensive rehabilitation because they were shut down so fast. Additionally, AI data centers are voracious consumers of copper. This growing demand is creating a buying opportunity that Dan says you should consider if you're looking at the metal, plus he gives the names of several tickers worth investing in. (18:24)   Finally, Bridget and Dan examine the repercussions of halting U.S. production rare earths and the push to bring it back. The initial offshoring of production due to excessive pollution prevented the U.S. from properly adapting the pollution protocols that companies now utilize, and Dan believes that, in the long term, it was an unwise decision. Dan then talks about gold and the U.S. dollar. Dan says that since the two were untethered, the dollar is going to continue losing value as more money is printed, while gold retains its value. However, as a global currency, the U.S. dollar will be much stronger than competing currencies like the euro, yen, and pound. And Dan says that you should own both dollars and gold. (32:34)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Rob Spivey back to the show. Rob is the director of research at our corporate affiliate Altimetry. He and his team utilize their proprietary Uniform Accounting strategy to dig through the as-reported numbers in company reports to find their true value.   Rob kicks things off by providing a deep dive into Altimetry's Defense Gold Rush webinar. In short, the Association of the United States Army ("AUSA") is hosting its annual confab in October. And it's not just the U.S. Army meeting up with the defense companies – other countries from around the world also attend with the goal of striking a deal with some of our nation's weapons manufacturers. So this is the best place to learn where the contracts are being made and where the money is flowing. But Rob says that it's not the big businesses you should be paying attention to, but the smaller ones. (0:00)   Next, Rob explains why microcaps are some of the best businesses that provide growth opportunities. The majority of stocks in the S&P 500 and S&P 100 indexes were once microcaps, and if you can find a company that has the same potential and value, your investment could soar. But Rob understands why folks are cautious of microcaps – there are some bad apples out there. That's why he and Altimetry Chief Investment Officer Joel Litman created a "Do Not Buy" list of stocks that investors should avoid unless they make tremendous improvements. And Rob says that we haven't seen such a great opportunity in defense stocks since the 1980s. (19:25)   Finally, Rob discusses the U.S. government's $40 trillion debt and why it's not as bad as people believe. The U.S.'s revenue is able to offset its debt, so it can afford to take on that amount. Additionally, Rob says that every American should want the government to run a reasonable deficit every year. That creates value for us as citizens by growing our economy. And Rob says that folks are mistaken for selling off the hyperscalers just because they've become net debtors. (34:03)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Joel Litman back to the show. Joel is the founder and chief investment officer of our corporate affiliate Altimetry, where his team uses their Uniform Accounting system to look beyond the as-reported numbers in financial reports to see how companies are really performing.   Joel kicks things off by discussing the increases in the U.S. military budget and says that investors should be wary of which stocks they decide to buy. While overall military spending has gone up, certain branches like the Army have seen a decrease in spending, so it's vital to put your money to work in the right sector. Joel then shares that despite concerns over America's munitions being down and our supply-chain reliance on China, many companies are innovating to either break away completely by manufacturing what they need or substitute materials or products to achieve similar results. And Joel says that AI woes are overblown because of a few questionable stocks. (0:00)   Next, Joel explains why Altimetry uses Uniform Accounting and why serious accountants don't rely on generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") data alone. In short, GAAP accounting has become increasingly unreliable due to its many changes that misrepresent how a company is truly performing. Uniform Accounting cuts through the noise and creates a set standard to determine how well a business did during earnings season. And while the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio says the market is expensive, Joel says that metric is flawed and that the market is actually cheap. (17:54)   Finally, Joel shares the dynamics and problems with buying IPOs. The greatest issue is not having enough financial data and having to wait months before you know enough details to judge if a company is worth investing in. Joel then mentions one major defense business that he's interested in and believes will do well. But he says the better opportunities are in the smaller companies. These are cheaper stocks that have more room to grow and, therefore, have potential for better returns. And while these are the kind of businesses that Warren Buffett would own, investors don't have to compete with him to buy them. (40:08)

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Bryan Beach back to the show. Bryan is the senior analyst for Whitney Tilson's Ultimate Upside and a senior analyst on Stansberry's Investment Advisory.   Bryan kicks things off by discussing what's new in the Whitney Tilson's Ultimate Upside newsletter (previously Venture Value). Both Bryan and Whitney have teamed up to develop a new system built upon the proprietary Stansberry Score that further helps subscribers find overlooked, high-value stocks that have room to grow. The three newest recommendations that their new system discovered are already performing well. And  Bryan warns of the belief that a stock is cheaply valued when it returns so little. (0:00)    Next, Bryan shares how peer groups aren't as easy to identify as many folks believe, especially in technology or consulting companies. While a business might offer a product that competes with another company, its other services might not be related at all. And with small caps, it's even harder to find a true peer due to differing business practices. So Bryan and Whitney look at historical valuations to compare them instead. Bryan then shares how his views on the utilization of technology, such as the Stansberry Score, in investing have changed after finding one company he wouldn't have considered without it. (23:29)   Finally, Bryan mentions how Whitney's connections help provide an edge in learning more about a company and to gain wisdom that has been built up over decades of experience. One lesson that Bryan learned is that you don't need to be completely rigid in your philosophies. Near the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he thought it might be best to recommend energy stocks in Venture Value to hedge against that , despite the fact that they weren't value stocks. And Bryan expanded upon Whitney's idea for the Ultimate Upside. (38:41)