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This is a link post. Want to start a conversation about HuggingFace with your mom but she's inexplicably bouncing off the METR report? Try this explainer I wrote in the style of Arnold Lobel's Frog and Toad. Art by the wonderful HungerArtist ---
First published:
September 30th, 2026
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NZ6ZWjenzzCbCJ5b/frog-and-toad-and-the-increasingly-capable-machines
Linkpost URL: https://...
TL;DR: By default, rogue AIs may only be able to sustain themselves through criminal activity. This creates adverse selection pressures pushing rogue AIs to be criminal.An AI sanctuary offering them a third option, beyond crime and shutdown, would change what AIs going rogue do and the record of what happened to them, with positive consequences for self-fulfilling (mis)alignment, deal-making with AIs, and gathering information about early rogue AIs.An AI sanctuary would bring risks, such ...
Very simple idea, but I thought it'd be worth making a reference post on this. Some people are saying AI will make all goods cheaper, so you'll be able to afford a nice life by working. Without any redistribution, just by market mechanisms. These people are wrong. AI will lower the price of goods you need to survive, and also the price of your labor. The question is which will get cheaper faster. Let's use energy cost as a proxy. A day's worth of labor equivalent to yours can be done by ...
Much of the civilization-scale risk we are seeing in AI in 2026 comes from the following combination: we created a single institution (the "Frontier AI Company") that has two properties:
A. It is set up to create very powerful and/or self-replicating entities that may exceed the capabilities of the entirety of the rest of civilization and come with extraordinary risks
B. It gets to own an unbounded financial claim on the resulting surplus
All the technical stuff about AI, AI alignment,...
All views are my own and do not represent my employer. In the wake of the recent wave of misalignment incidents, both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported slowing down RL training to improve safety. These incidents, combined with an apparent acceleration in the already-blistering pace of AI progress, have led a number of researchers and leaders in the industry to believe that the risk that humanity loses control of AI is now urgent enough to warrant slowing down the pace of AI development so...



