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This podcast delivers weekly insights for the agriculture industry, covering everything from farm-level risk management to market volatility and production challenges. Beyond the farm, we discuss key supply chain issues, like Federal Reserve policies, port strikes, and Mississippi River disruptions, affecting everyone from producers to those all along the supply chain. Join us every Monday morning for engaging conversations with agricultural economists and industry experts about the agricultural economy at both the micro and macro level. Each episode also features a market report, offering current and historical futures price trends.
84 Episodes
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Scott Stiles and Hunter Biram discuss the March Prospective Plantings report and what it means for 2026 crop acreage. Arkansas rice acres came in close to expectations but remain historically low, while cotton acres were higher than expected and soybean acres came in lower than anticipated. They walk through the economic factors driving planting decisions, including government programs, landlord considerations, and local yield potential. The episode also highlights how rising diesel and ferti...
Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the economic impact of the January winter storm on Arkansas’s poultry industry, where prolonged outages and freezing conditions led to major production disruptions. They walk through the difference between damage estimates and economic impact, highlighting over $200 million in structural losses alongside additional losses tied to bird mortality and reduced production. The conversation also explores how these losses ripple through labor income, jobs, and...
Rising input costs are creating new challenges for producers as fertilizer and fuel markets respond to global conflict and supply chain uncertainty. In this episode, Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Grant Gardner (University of Kentucky) to discuss how these shifts are impacting crop margins, input availability, and decision-making. They cover potential acreage shifts between corn and soybeans, the role of energy markets in commodity prices, and how these dynamics are influencing deman...
Join Hunter Biram and Breana Watkins as they discuss how rising fuel and fertilizer prices linked to conflict in the Persian Gulf are reshaping crop profitability heading into the 2026 season. Updated University of Arkansas enterprise budgets show tighter margins across several major crops as higher diesel and nitrogen costs increase production expenses. While soybean returns appear stronger in some scenarios, factors such as yield expectations, soil type, equipment needs, and rental agreemen...
Hunter Biram is joined by Will Maples of Mississippi State University to discuss building a disciplined crop marketing plan for 2026. They emphasize using breakeven costs to set realistic price targets, spreading sales to manage risk, and documenting marketing decisions to reduce emotion and improve long-run performance. The conversation also highlights how marketing plans should work alongside crop insurance and Farm Bill programs to support proactive, rather than forced, marketing decisions...
In this episode, Hunter Biram and special guest Francis Tsiboe explore how USDA’s new Expanding Access to Risk Protection (EARP) rule will reshape prevented planting insurance starting in the 2027 crop year. With the elimination of the prevented planting buy-up option, producers who want to maintain similar levels of protection will now have to increase their overall coverage levels, which will raise premiums and expand exposure to other types of losses. Drawing on recent analysis from the Ag...
Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy walk through the newly finalized Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payment rates and estimate Arkansas producers will receive about $347 million in total support. They discuss how the per-acre rates for key crops compare to earlier expectations, what the FBA does (and doesn’t) do for breakeven prices across different land tenure arrangements, and how payment limits could affect farms with heavy rice or cotton acreage. They also highlight updated tools including the Arka...
Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Jennifer James, a fourth-generation rice and soybean farmer from Newport, Arkansas, part owner of H&J Land Company, and host of the Field Good Life podcast. Jennifer shares her path back to the family’s Century Farm and discusses the realities of operating a diversified row crop operation in today’s economic environment.
Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy discuss the launch of the National Cotton Profit & Loss Tool, a free, web-based budgeting and planning resource designed to help cotton producers evaluate profitability, breakeven points, and financial risk. Ryan outlines how the tool pairs county-level yield expectations with customizable enterprise budgets, enabling producers to run detailed what-if scenarios and build cost structures that reflect their own operations. The episode also highlights how the tool c...
Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles discuss the December 2025 WASDE report, noting the most significant price reductions in rice and cotton markets. Long-grain rice prices declined 9%, while cotton fell to around $0.60 per pound, driven by sluggish export demand, higher yields, and rising ending stocks. The episode also covers corn and soybean markets, where corn exports were revised upward and ending stocks lowered, though farm price projections for both crops remained unchanged. Hunter and Scott ...
In this episode, we sit down with U.S. Senator John Boozman to discuss the major federal policy issues shaping American agriculture. We cover how Congress has approached farm policy this year, including reconciliation packages, appropriations work, and efforts to advance USDA nominees. Senator Boozman also shares insight on the state of farm economic assistance, the rollout of recent disaster and commodity support programs, and how trade and new markets fit into long-term farm profitability.
Hunter Biram and Scott Stiles walk through the November 2025 WASDE, where small adjustments still led to very different price signals across major crops. Soybean and corn price projections inched higher, supported by tighter soybean ending stocks and strong corn export demand, while rice and cotton prices softened under the weight of large supplies. The episode also touches on factors to watch heading into 2026 including global demand and how South American weather could shape markets over th...
Arkansas’s 2025 net farm income was revised down by $850 million, and in this episode Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy break down what’s driving the shift. Wet spring conditions cut rice and soybean acres, delayed and smaller disaster payments pulled income even lower, and only modest livestock gains helped offset the decline. They also look ahead to 2026, where most crop margins remain negative, but updated safety-net provisions offer a bit more stability for soybeans, corn, and peanuts.
With harvest wrapping up across much of the Midsouth, today’s episode looks at how pre-harvest marketing strategies can guide decision-making after the crop is in the bin. Ryan Loy is joined by Andrew McKenzie and Scott Stiles to discuss how to adapt pre-harvest marketing plans for the post-harvest window, factoring in storage costs, breakevens, and recent export-driven price moves in soybeans.
Join us for an in-depth discussion between Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy on prevented planting (PP) decisions in Arkansas rice production. Using simulated 2025 yield and price outcomes, they evaluate when PP could be financially preferable to planting. The episode also addresses second-crop soybean considerations and how the timing and scale of pre-plant costs can determine whether PP is a strategic choice or a costly one.
For the third consecutive year, Arkansas crop producers are facing a hard reality — total cash expenses exceed total cash income. In this episode of Morning Coffee & Ag Markets, Hunter Biram, Ryan Loy, Scott Stiles, and Grant Beckwith sit down together to unpack what’s driving the financial stress on Arkansas farms. They discuss the key takeaways from the “Farm Gate Economics: Surviving the Cost-Price Squeeze” meeting, including fertilizer prices that refuse to drop and record global grai...
Interval timing matters more than you think when it comes to Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) insurance. Hunter Biram and guest Walker Davis unpack new University of Arkansas research comparing dry, median, and wet counties to reveal how rainfall trends and interval selection shape profitability. They discuss interval-selection strategies—from Near Peak Forage Months to Historical Variation—and why these two outperform profit-max and basis-risk methods across most scenarios. With the Dece...
Historic April floods in the Mid-South forced widespread replanting, setting the stage for a volatile 2025 rice marketing year. Hunter Biram and Ryan Loy are joined by Alvaro Durand-Morat to unpack global market forces reshaping U.S. rice competitiveness. They discuss how India’s lifted export ban, record global harvests, and shifting import policies in key markets like the Philippines have driven prices down nearly 30% from last year. They also examine the quality challenges facing U.S. rice...
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 brings sweeping changes to the farm safety net. Ryan Loy and Hunter Biram break down what motivated Congress to expand Price Loss Coverage (PLC) and Agricultural Risk Coverage–County (ARC-CO) programs, how those updates shift risk management across regions, and the modeling behind county-level payment estimates. They also unpack what the ongoing government shutdown could mean for the timing of program payments and farm operations this fall, and take a lo...
The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2024, easing short-term lending costs but offering little immediate relief for producers in a tough ag economy. Ryan Loy is joined by Erica Barnes Fields as they connect these market shifts to rising farm financial stress, drawing lessons from the 1980s crisis and outlining red flag warning signs and resources available to support farm families today.
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