The Weekly Insight

The Fed didn't hike rates last week. The market did. By the close of business the day before Kevin Warsh's decision, traders had priced in a 90%+ chance of a rate hike. Bank of America's own strategist put it plainly: at that point, NOT hiking would have been "nearly unprecedented." So, Warsh delivered exactly what was priced in. He then held the shortest press conference of any Fed Chair on record, gave zero forward guidance, and allowed no follow-up questions. All in the name of a new commu...

Not a single recession indicator is flashing red right now. That should be reassuring. It isn't. And the reason why traces back to an economist who's been dead for almost 30 years. This week, we dig into Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure debt, and why one AI company just got an "investment grade" rating on debt secured by a single customer's contract. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-trillion-dollar-game-of-mu...

The bond market doesn't make headlines like stocks do. No breakouts. No "to the moon." Just yields, spreads, and math. But right now, it might be telling us more than the stock market is. Here's what's happening: the 50-year-old recession indicator everyone trusts hasn't fired. High-yield bond traders are acting like this is one of the calmest environments in 20 years. And Treasury traders are doing the exact opposite – pricing in real risk and pushing yields higher. Two markets. Same economy...

Four years ago, Jerome Powell used Jackson Hole to warn markets that rate hikes were going to be painful and longer than expected. It became one of the most consequential speeches of his tenure. Last Friday, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stood at the same podium. The market reacted like it got the same kind of signal. Odds of a September hike jumped from 35% to 60% by the time he finished talking. We think the market missed the point. Again. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-w...

Moderna's melanoma trial results moved the stock this week — and a lot of the healthcare sector with it. The excitement is real. Personalized, tumor-built cancer treatment is a genuine medical leap. But here's the number that should temper the "this fixes healthcare spending" take: cancer treatment is only 6.7% of U.S. healthcare spend. Cure it completely, and the number that actually matters — the 20% of GDP we're on pace to hit by 2030 — barely moves. This edition of The Weekly Insight cove...