The Real Investment Show Podcast

What happens when the "perfect" financial plan doesn't happen—your kid skips college, your retirement clock is ticking, and the family budget gets ambushed by costs you never saw coming? Jon Penn and Jonathan McCarty connect three real-world money stress points that are showing up everywhere right now: 1) The kid isn't going to college—now what about that 529? 2) Retirement vs. college: the household tug-of-war 3) Hidden car ownership costs: the budget killer after the dealership 0:00 - INTRO 0:21 - Market Futures & Precious Metals 2:33 - Rising Costs of automobiles & maintenance 5:27 - Rising Cost of Auto Insurance 10:45 - Kids' First Cars & Replacements 15:14 - What Happens to 529 Plans Leftover? 22:11 - The Increased Cost of Education 26:39 - Construction Technology 28:26 - Rolling 529 Funds into an "Able Account" 29:14 - Saving for Retirement vs Saving for College 33:45 - Two Themes to Retirement 34:45 - Subsidized vs Unsubsidized Student Loans 36:37 - FAFSA & CCS 38:01 - Rosso's Retirement Plans 39:48 - YouTube Poll 42:49 - Escalating Health Insurance Costs Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/Gy9w2-v1EyE ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "BLS Labor Report Defies Consensus" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bls-labor-report-defies-consensus/ --- Watch our previous show, "The Value Rotation Illusion," here: https://youtube.com/live/2133YnloEBo?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dollar Rally Risk - Overbought Markets," is here: https://youtu.be/ioOGa5YHzDI ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #529Plan #RetirementPlanning #CollegePlanning #PersonalFinance #CostOfCarOwnership #BucceesBeaverNuggets

"Value is back," the headlines say—so investors rush from mega-cap growth into "boring" staples, utilities, and healthcare. But here's the problem: sector labels aren't valuation metrics. In many cases, the so-called "value rotation" is an illusion—because investors may be rotating into expensive stocks while selling the actual value hiding inside "growth." Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down why value and growth aren't mutually exclusive, and why the market's favorite shortcut—"defensives = value, tech = growth"—can lead to costly portfolio mistakes. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Employment Numbers Surprise 6:01 - Why We're Setting Up for a Dollar Rally 14:05 - Gasoline Price Comparisons 15:59 - Value Stocks & Market Rotations 19:36 - Defining "Growth" vs "Value" 21:22 - Buying the Future, not the Past 22:38 - The Problem w Forward Earnings 28:06 - How Passive Flows Drive Markets Higher 32:01 - Overbought Markets Can Remain So for a Long Time 35:01 - How the Dow Industrials Have Shifted 37:57 - Employment is Not as Strong as Hoped (It's garbage) 39:57 - Expect Revisions Next Year 43:11 - Friday Inflation-Truflation Report Preview 45:34 - ISM Index Anecdotal Evidence Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/2133YnloEBo?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "BLS Labor Report Defies Consensus" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bls-labor-report-defies-consensus/ --- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: You Ask 'em, We'll Answer," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sI0zNQTCyE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dollar Rally Risk - Overbought Markets," is here: https://youtu.be/ioOGa5YHzDI ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #USdollar #MarketTechnicalAnalysis #MeanReversion #PortfolioRiskManagement #GoldAndSilver #ValueInvesting #StockMarket #PortfolioStrategy #Valuation #InvestingEducation

Is the U.S. Dollar setting up for a deeper rally—and what does that mean for markets that have been riding the "weak dollar" trade? Lance Roberts walks through a long-term, monthly chart perspective: when major indexes stretch 2+ standard deviations above long-term means, the odds of a meaningful mean reversion rise. Right now, the S&P 500 is extended, the equal-weight S&P is even more stretched, and several "Dollar-sensitive" areas look extremely overbought—including Basic Materials, Industrials, and Transports. The same setup shows up in international stocks and emerging markets, where foreign flows often chase currency differentials. If the Dollar turns higher from an oversold condition and triggers a buy signal, those rotations can reverse fast. We also cover why gold and silver—classic Dollar trades—can stay extended longer than expected, but rarely hold at 3–4 standard deviations for very long. Bottom line: overbought doesn't mean "crash tomorrow," but it does mean it's time to think about taking profits, rebalancing, and reducing risk before the mean reversion shows up. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/ioOGa5YHzDI --- Articles mentioned in this report: "BLS Labor Report Defies Consensus" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bls-labor-report-defies-consensus/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/

It's Q&A Wednesday: You ask 'em, we'll answer—and today's episode covers the questions investors actually wrestle with when markets get noisy. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff start with a preview of upcoming economic reports and what recent data may be signaling about slowing growth and the next bout of market volatility. From there, we dig into real portfolio decisions—especially for investors heading into retirement—including how to think about allocation changes, managing risk, and avoiding the behavioral traps that derail long-term outcomes. Lance & Danny also hit the big evergreen topics: recency bias, whether there's truly a "one stock to own forever," what buffered ETFs do (and don't) protect you from, and the mechanics behind the bond yield / interest-rate relationship. We also tackle timely portfolio choices like metals, tax-deferred vs. taxable accounts, seasonality, foreign currency trades, and how to invest in individual bonds. We wrap with practical tradeoffs around high-yield savings, the reality of beating the market consistently, and a broader discussion on growth modeling—plus a curveball question: Is AI going to take our jobs? 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Reports Preview: More Weakness? 4:59 - Markets Do What They Do - More Volatility? 11:04 - How Should I Change My Portfolio Going Into Retirement? 17:48 - Dealing with Recency Bias 21:04 - The One Stock to Own Forever 24:20 - The Thing About Buffered ETF's 28:19 - Inverse Relationship Between Bond Yields vs Interest Rates 34:10 - Metals: Selling Today? 35:50 - Tax-deferred vs Taxable brokerage Accounts 39:16 - Using Seasonality When Investing 40:48 - Dealing with Foreign Currency Trades 44:00 - How to Invest in Individual Bonds? 47:01 - The Pro's & Con's of High Yield Savings 48:11 - Do You Consistently Beat the Market? 53:36 - Defining Magnitude and Modeling Growth 55:31 - Is AI Going to Take Our Jobs? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sI0zNQTCyE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/seasonality-buy-signal-and-investing-outcomes/ "Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technology-stocks-dead-or-an-opportunity/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Duct Tape & WD-40 Your Portfolio Together," here: https://youtube.com/live/EsweZ6GtMvI?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Keeps Stocks Flat," is here: https://youtu.be/8iyhck2LBpY ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #SectorRotation #TreasuryYields #Volatility #QandAWednesday #RetirementInvesting #MarketVolatility #BondMarket #TaxPlanning

Markets are stuck in the same rhythm: rally, pull back, test support, and bounce again. After Tuesday's dip, futures are mildly higher this morning—but the bigger story is consolidation. Under the surface, leadership is rotating: Energy, Financials, and Value have held the upper hand, while Growth has started to perk up. That internal rotation can keep the index "flat" even as specific sectors trend. The setup still leans toward an upside breakout, but the market hasn't shown the momentum needed to follow through—yet. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields have been sliding for several sessions. A bounce back toward 4% wouldn't be surprising given where inflation sits and what yields are "supposed" to reflect. If incoming inflation or employment data disappoints, yields could push lower again. Finally, volatility is quietly grinding higher as turnover and leadership churn continue. No fear-spike yet—but this is often the type of prelude we see before volatility eventually makes a sharper move. Manage risk, stay disciplined, and let the market prove the breakout. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/8iyhck2LBpY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #SectorRotation #TreasuryYields #Volatility

Markets rallied back into positive territory today, but the real risk-management lesson isn't the chart—it's behavior. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack the "WD-40 & Duct Tape" framework: WD-40 reduces emotional friction when headlines and volatility try to lock up decision-making, and duct tape is the discipline that keeps your portfolio plan intact (allocation, diversification, rebalancing rules, time horizon, liquidity). We also hit real-life planning topics investors ignore until it's urgent—pre-nups, trusts, board liability, and why you shouldn't scrimp on estate planning. Because protecting wealth isn't just about returns—it's about structure, documents, and decisions made before stress shows up. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Valentine's PSA & Earnings Recaps 4:25 - Markets Rally Back Into Positive Territory 9:21 - Christmas Lights, Roofers, & Racoons 12:31 - Engagements, WD-40, & Duct Tape 18:35 - Investors Getting Emotional w Markets 26:57 - When Should a Pre-Nup Be Used? 31:57 - Will a Trust Protect One's Assets? 39:27 - Don't Scrimp on Estate Planning 42:58 - Can I Get Sued on a Board of Directors? 45:22 - Updating an Estate Plan Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/EsweZ6GtMvI?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Speculative Narrative Unwinds" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/speculative-narrative-unwinds/ "Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technology-stocks-dead-or-an-opportunity/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Technology Stocks: Dead… or the Next Opportunity?" here: https://youtube.com/live/dkvgydsdn-g?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Signals Melt-up" is here: https://youtu.be/U5PtR83h4qs ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketMeltUp #SectorRotation #TechStocks #BitcoinAnalysis #BehavioralFinance #MarketVolatility #PortfolioDiscipline #EstatePlanning #WealthProtection

Markets rebounded Monday and nearly tagged new highs—trend remains bullish, but leadership is rotating. After an early-year chase into Value, money is flowing back into Technology and Growth. At the same time, global equity inflows ex-Tech are running hot (over $60B YTD), a classic "melt-up" signal that's worth monitoring for crowding and speculation. Futures are higher again this morning—watch for follow-through. Bitcoin bounced but hasn't regained traction yet. It's still deeply oversold, momentum is flattening, and a tradable setup could emerge if we get confirmation with a momentum turn/buy signal. Not financial advice. Manage risk and avoid chasing extended moves. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/U5PtR83h4qs --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketMeltUp #SectorRotation #TechStocks #BitcoinAnalysis

Technology stocks started February on the back foot as volatility spiked and leveraged trades unwound across markets—crypto first, then metals, then equities. The key question: is this a real breakdown in tech leadership, or a mechanical liquidation that's creating selective opportunity? 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Superbowl Recap & Looking for BLS & CPI 4:41 - More Trapped Longs & Volatility to Come 10:38 - Market Volatility May not Be Over Yet 14:28 - The AI Threat to Software Co's 18:12 - Salesforce vs AI 23:20 - Narratives are Justification for Overpaying 26:30 - Technology Sector Analysis & Rotation 29:40 - Value to Growth Rotation 32:05 - Where are Earnings Coming From? 35:08 - Waiting for the Bottom to Buy 37:36 - Fundamentals Then & Now 40:01 - Margin Debt vs DPI (Disposable Personal Income) 41:30 - What Happens When You Lose it All 44:05 Boomer Advice for Younger Investors 48:41 - Learn when Enough is Enough Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/dkvgydsdn-g?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Speculative Narrative Unwinds" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/speculative-narrative-unwinds/ "Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technology-stocks-dead-or-an-opportunity/ ------- Watch our previous show, "The Wealth-Health Gap," here: https://youtube.com/live/TynkcovRQIQ?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "100-DMA Holds, Volatility Returns," is here: https://youtu.be/y7ilBZWTrcA ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #TechnologyStocks #Nasdaq #MarketVolatility #SectorRotation #RiskManagement

Why do wealthier households tend to live longer and experience fewer chronic diseases? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down the Wealth-Health Gap—how income, savings, and environment shape health through housing quality, access to care, and financial resilience. We also flip the lens: poor health can reduce earnings, drain savings, and create a vicious cycle that widens disparities across generations. Finally, we discuss systemic factors that amplify the gap and practical policy ideas aimed at improving both economic stability and health outcomes. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Uncle Floyd & Chuy Intro 3:06 - The Health-Wealth Connect 6:05 - Diet, Lifestyle, & Spending Choices 7:32 - Kevin O'Leary's Health-Wealth Regimen 9:40 - Lifestyle Matters 12:48 - The Cost of Healthy Eating 20:02 - The Revolution in Health in Wealth Planning 22:02 - Younger Generations Want to Know 27:15 - Planning for Healthy Retirement 28:30 - Information for Better Health 31:56 - Planning for Healthcare Costs in Retirement 34:14 - Why Not Know? 38:40 - Stack the Odds in Your Favor 44:15 - Candid Coffee Teaser Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/TynkcovRQIQ?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Truflation vs CPI: What Inflation Is Really Doing Today," here: https://youtube.com/live/Ojlx_IPrDUg?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Set Up for Rotation Trades is here: https://youtu.be/IKsm6U2CK8w ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #WealthHealthGap #SocialDeterminantsOfHealth #HealthEquity #FinancialPlanning #WealthInequality

Is inflation actually cooling—or just being measured differently? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Truflation's real-time inflation readings (built from millions of point-of-purchase prices across multiple providers) versus the official CPI/PCE framework, which relies far more on surveys and sampling. We'll also address the big caveat: neither CPI/PCE nor Truflation perfectly captures what you feel "in the shops," because inflation varies by geography, income group, and what you actually buy. The aggregate number can hide the lived experience. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Employment Data Continues to Weaken 4:10 - Finishing up Earnings Season 10:36 - Truflation & Kevin Warsh's Hawkishness 12:36 - The Truflation Conundrum vs CPI 16:12 - The Reflation Trade vs Real Economy 20:49 - Cheaper Fritos & Texas Chili (no beans) 21:48 - Tariff Impact on Inflation 23:33 - Value vs Growth 26:11 - Why Portfolio Positioning Matters 28:05 - More Chili (with beans & Broccoli) 29:27 - Software Services vs AI 30:29 - The Risk Facing Oracle 35:22 - Leverage Kills 40:11 - The Lesson in Narratives 41:37 - Warsh vs Powell - Is there a difference? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Your Questions, Real Answers," here: https://www.youtube.com/live/dLVV-H-lG3A?si=Ej0Pl1nUuYmKYpFG -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Set Up for Rotation Trades is here: https://youtu.be/IKsm6U2CK8w ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketRotation #SP500 #NASDAQ #TechnicalAnalysis #Inflation #CPI #PCE #Truflation #Economy

Markets sold off again Wednesday, closing right on the S&P 500's 50-day moving average (50-DMA). While the index is still riding its underlying support line and working off an overbought condition, the momentum trade has largely been wrung out. Despite the turbulence, the broader uptrend remains intact—just with a lot more internal rotation. Wednesday's damage was concentrated in mega-cap momentum and "growth leadership," while much of the rest of the market held up better. That matters because Value vs. Growth has become increasingly overextended over the last several sessions—conditions that often precede a mean-reversion move and create rotation trade opportunities. The NASDAQ is also telling a different story. It's broken down through the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages during a consolidating/topping process and remains on a sell signal. However, after the persistent selling in Technology, the index is now extremely oversold. Historically, oversold extremes have often aligned with short-term bottoms and tradable reflex rallies—even if the bigger-picture backdrop stays choppy. Bottom line: a rotation back from Value into Growth over the coming days and weeks wouldn't be surprising. As investors, the goal isn't to chase what worked yesterday, but to watch for setups where price has moved too far, too fast—and where improving risk/reward can favor disciplined entries, position sizing, and clear stop/target levels. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/IKsm6U2CK8w --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketRotation #SP500 #NASDAQ #TechnicalAnalysis

Today's live YouTube Chat Q&A covers the full spectrum—earnings season takeaways, the selloff-to-rebound pattern, and the big debate around Big Tech, AI, and margins. We walk through where tech and AI leadership stand now, whether AI is pressuring software profitability, and the "real world" constraint markets may be underpricing: power demand (including what ERCOT could mean for data-center expansion). We also hit the energy transition angle—why wind/solar intermittency matters, the critical minerals push, and why fundamentals still matter when narratives run hot. On the positioning side, we discuss whether metals look oversold, how to think about "rebound rallies," and why investor discipline (process, rebalancing, and risk controls) beats chasing headlines. Finally, we shift to planning questions that come up constantly in the chat: Medicare timing (age 65 vs. later), enrolling in your 70s, key pitfalls with Medicare Advantage, and how COBRA fits into the transition. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19- Earnings Season Recap 4:05 - Markets Sell off to Rebound 9:05 - Tech Stocks & AI - Where are We? 10:17 - Is AI Destroying Software Profit Margins? 16:26 - Will ERCOT Pump the Brakes of Data Centers? 19:22 - Wind & Solar Are Not Consistent or Reliable 20:42 - The Critical Mineral Push 22:33 - Fundamentals Matter a Lot 24:19 - Are Metals Over Sold? 27:41 - Investor Discipline & Having a Plan 29:10 - This was Not a Forced Manipulation 30:45 - Leverage on Bitcoin 31:47 - Jumping on Medicare at age 65? 38:44 - Signing Up for Medicare in 70's 40:32 - Be Careful with Medicare Advantage 42:56 - The Thing About COBRA Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLVV-H-lG3A&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Watch our previous show, "The Trap of Chasing Returns," here: https://youtube.com/live/sKXpfWf8oRs?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Dip Buyers Step In" is here: https://youtu.be/EY04EexrThs ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #ReflationTrade #PortfolioRebalancing #BuyTheDip #EarningsSeason #ArtificialIntelligence #BigTech #RiskManagement #Medicare

Markets sold off sharply Tuesday, then bounced into the close—continuing a familiar pattern: when price tests the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), dip buyers step in. That's been working, but it's also how traders get trapped when the "buy-the-dip" playbook finally fails—so risk management matters. This morning, futures are pointing higher as the market tries to reclaim the 20-day moving average (20-DMA). Tuesday's weakness was concentrated in mega-cap tech (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL), and early action suggests a bounce attempt. Meanwhile, the "heat map" continues to highlight rotation: value and defensives (WMT, COST, PG) plus energy have been outperforming while growth digests valuations. That rotation can persist, but value is getting overbought/overextended, raising the odds of a rotation back toward growth as we move through earnings season. Seasonally, February can be volatile, and we're watching the VIX closely as volatility's trendline remains elevated. Bottom line: expect choppy, sloppy trading—keep allocations disciplined, avoid chasing stretched moves, and stay focused on process over predictions. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/EY04EexrThs --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Precious Metals Aren't Predicting Economic Collapse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/precious-metals-arent-predicting-economic-collapse-draft/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #DipBuyers #BuyTheDip #SP500 #Premarket #RiskManagement

Most investors don't blow up because they "didn't know enough." They blow up because they frame the decision wrong. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down narrow framing—the behavior where investors judge one investment in isolation ("Why don't I own that?") instead of evaluating results through the entire portfolio and a long-term plan. When something becomes "hot," it feels obvious, safe, and inevitable. But return-chasing often ends the same way: buying after a big run, then selling after the first real drawdown. That cycle turns investing into reaction instead of strategy—headlines instead of planning, emotion instead of discipline. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Manufacturing Feed Reflation Narrative 4:15 - Sector Rotations Worth Watching 8:20 - Markets Continue in Rising Trend 13:24 - The Trap of Cahasing Returns 15:58 - The Trouble w Investor Complacency 18:20 - The Flaw in Framing 22:09 - Momentum Drives Price 23:21 - Leverage Unwinding & Volatility 24:42 - It's Silver Profit Taking Time 25:47 - Risk Tolerance vs Risk Capacity 28:03 - A Portfolio is Like a Car 31:12 - The Misconception Between Risk & Volatility 34:23 - Risk is the Destruction of Capital 35:58 - Markets Do Not Compound Returns 37:31 - Would You Rather... 42:33 - Everybody Idolizes Warren Buffett 43:30 - Establish a Discipline 45:52 - Have a Plan - Write it Down 48:51 - E-book Library Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/sKXpfWf8oRs?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Bears Are an Endangered Species," here: https://www.youtube.com/live/NAyXnrquGiQ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Reflation Rotation" is here: https://youtu.be/9f2tn_O1BUc ------- Visit our E-book Library (no library card required!) https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #ReflationTrade #PortfolioRebalancing

Industrial and Basic Materials stocks are leading the "reflation" narrative—both have been strong, with Industrials tagging fresh highs and Materials extending a sharp run since December. The catch: these areas are increasingly overbought, and valuations eventually matter. The key question for 2026 is whether earnings and growth can "catch up" to prices that have already sprinted ahead. In this pre-market update, we walk through why disciplined investors rebalance to targets, take partial profits, and reduce risk without "selling everything." We also highlight what rotations tend to do: money chases what's hot, then swings back toward what was ignored. Staples were deeply out of favor late last year—then rallied as flows rotated. Energy also rebounded as oil broke higher after an oversold setup, but as positions work, it's time to harvest gains and avoid giving them back during the next volatility spike. Finally, we discuss where the next rotation could emerge: defensive, higher-dividend areas like Utilities have lagged and are out of favor—often a condition that sets up future inflows when investors pivot from offense to defense. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/9f2tn_O1BUc --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Precious Metals Aren't Predicting Economic Collapse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/precious-metals-arent-predicting-economic-collapse-draft/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #ReflationTrade #PortfolioRebalancing

Lance Roberts examines why bears have become an endangered species—and why that may be a warning sign rather than a confirmation of safety. Investor sentiment is extreme, margin debt is surging, speculative behavior is accelerating, and market leadership remains narrowly concentrated. When optimism becomes unanimous, history shows future returns tend to disappoint. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19- February & Earnings Season Continues 4:50 - The Action Behind Friday's Action 13:53 - Rationalizing Markets' Ups & Downs 15:23 - Percentage of Markets at All-new Highs 16:38 - The Reflationary Narrative 17:50 -Why Bears are Extinct 20:20 - Everyone has to buy, but at what price? 22:19 - Why Portfolio Risk Management is Important 25:14 - Market Cycles & Deviations 31:10 - Average Longevity is Increasing 34:02 - Do Not Ignore the Impact of Passive Investing 37:07 - Demand Drives Product Innovation on Wall St. 41:35 - Markets Set the Lows 43:40 - The Cure for High Prices is High Prices Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/live/NAyXnrquGiQ ------- Watch our previous show, "Retirement Income When Markets Are Expensive," here: https://youtube.com/live/5MX3c-VM-n0?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rotation, Volatility, and Commodities Risk" is here: https://youtu.be/Dt4z5fAB7jI ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bears Are An Endangered Species" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/endangered-species-list-includes-market-bears/ "The Market Cycles Potentially Driving 2026 Returns" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-cycles-outlooks-for-2026-draft/ "Precious Metals Aren't Predicting Economic Collapse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/precious-metals-arent-predicting-economic-collapse-draft/ Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #CommodityMarkets #RiskManagement #SP500 #MarginCall #Leverage #MarketRisk #InvestorSentiment #StockMarketOutlook #RiskManagement #FinancialPlanning

Markets delivered plenty of action Friday. The S&P 500 briefly broke below its 20-DMA but reversed higher, signaling that the broader uptrend remains intact despite rising volatility. Internally, markets continue to rotate—shifting between mega-cap growth and value—while staples have pushed toward overbought levels and technology has become increasingly oversold. We also explain the sharp moves in silver, gold, and oil. Commodity markets are driven by heavily leveraged futures positioning, and Friday's decline reflected an unwinding of leverage—not a fundamental shock. With margin requirements rising across precious metals, volatility is likely to remain elevated, reinforcing why disciplined risk management, rebalancing, and profit-taking matter—especially in commodities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/Dt4z5fAB7jI --- Articles mentioned in this report: "Precious Metals Aren't Predicting Economic Collapse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/precious-metals-arent-predicting-economic-collapse-draft/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #CommodityMarkets #RiskManagement #SP500

Markets may still enjoy short-term momentum, but long-term retirement planning must confront a different reality: elevated valuations, lower forward returns, and rising sequence-of-returns risk. Richard Rosso explains why retirees face a near-term tailwind in market returns—but potentially long-term secular stagnation that demands tighter portfolio guardrails. Drawing on research from Michael Kitces and Wade D. Pfau, we discuss why historically tested retirement income strategies matter more today than at any point in the last two decades. Rich breaks down: Why short-term market strength can be dangerous for new retirees How sequence-of-returns risk dominates the first 10–15 years of retirement Why portfolios need rules and guardrails, not static allocations How retirees over the last 3–5 years should consider "goal scooping" after strong market gains Why taxes still materially affect retirement income sustainability How to mentally and emotionally prepare for inevitable market volatility At RIA, we use valuation-based planning, forward-return assumptions, and behavioral coaching to help retirees avoid forced selling, manage withdrawals, and maintain confidence through changing market cycles. Retirement is not static—and neither is risk. This is about preparing before markets test your plan. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Managing Retirement Income when Markets are Expensive 2:21 - Time Correction of Markets 3:59 - When Valuations Matter 5:52 - Being Prepared for Stagnation 15:04 - How to Battle Stagnation in Retirement 18:37 - Goal Scooping for Retirees 20:51 - Making Sure of Guaranteed Income 24:32 - Determining Personal Rate of Return Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/5MX3c-VM-n0?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "1-29-26 Market Risks Behind Powell's "Nonrestrictive" Stance," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vX2vPQQp28 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #RetirementIncome #MarketValuations #SequenceOfReturns #FinancialPlanning

The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell's message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Mega Reports & Fed Fallout 4:31 - Markets Struggle after 7,000 9:33 - Inflation, Truflation, & Labor 14:14 - Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower? 16:44 - Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable 19:10 - No Mention of QT/QE 21:10 - Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator 23:14 - Margin Debt is Bullish for Markets 26:13 - Liquidity Shifts & Fed Watching 29:15 - Geopolitics, Mid-term Elections & Potential Gov't Shutdown 31:42 - Why Fed Policy Matters 34:02 - Are We In an AI Bubble 35:53 - Favorite Search Engine Rankings - Then & Now 38:23 - The AI Boom vs the Dot-com Bubble Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vX2vPQQp28 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bubble-history-says-caution-is-warranted/ ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday, the YouTube Chatroom Free-for-all," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLaWDc-IGAw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Stall at 7,000: Breakout or Bull Trap?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketSpeculation #InvestorDiscipline #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #MonetaryPolicy

Markets are testing the psychologically important 7,000 level—a major round-number threshold for investors. Momentum is turning back to a buy signal, and with no historical resistance above this level, a breakout could open the door toward the Fibonacci extension near 7,100. However, rising speculation and a sharp increase in margin debt signal growing leverage across markets—from equities to metals and miners. While this added leverage can push prices higher in the short term, it also raises downside risk if trades begin to unwind. With bullish trends intact but speculation elevated, disciplined investors should focus on risk management: taking profits, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for the inevitable market rotation or correction. When momentum shifts, capital often flows quickly toward oversold and neglected areas—leaving late chasers exposed. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meTHta-tC1o&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #MarketSpeculation #InvestorDiscipline