Markets Unscripted

Markets opened the week higher even with all eyes on the Middle East, and in this episode Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why.They dig into oil, positioning, bearish sentiment, Bitcoin resilience, bond weakness, and why traders get punished when they try to outsmart price action. This episode is really about one core lesson: the market already knows more than any headline does.They also explain why relative strength matters more than news, why bottoms form when fear is highest, and why most traders are simply sizing too big for the volatility they’re trying to trade.If you want a real-world discussion on trading process, positioning, risk, and how to stay grounded when headlines are screaming panic, this is one of the most practical episodes yet.In this episode:Why markets rallied despite Middle East fearWhat oil price action may really be sayingWhy traders get trapped by narrativesRelative strength names like NBIS, CIEN, PWR and moreWhy Bitcoin has been acting better than many expectedWhat bonds and credit may be signalingThe truth about position sizing and emotional tradingNext week: Tom Basso joins the podcast.Timestamps:00:00 Why markets rallied despite Middle East fear05:15 Why price matters more than your opinion06:10 The better trade: focus on relative strength12:02 Why market bottoms form when news looks worst16:09 Following process over personal bias22:00 Positioning, put buying, and why the market didn’t break30:01 Bitcoin resilience and what it may be signaling33:16 30-year bonds, liquidity, and macro risk41:56 The real reason most traders fail: position sizing45:09 Tom Basso preview and final takeaway

Markets are being shaken by rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and increasingly erratic price action. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the key signals traders should be watching right now — and why this environment may be far more dangerous than most investors realize.Instead of guessing headlines, they focus on what the market itself is telling us through liquidity, positioning, and price behavior.Topics covered include:• The QQQ vs Consumer Staples (XLP) ratio and what it says about market risk• The Up/Down Volume Ratio used by William O’Neil to identify buying vs selling pressure• Why traders are getting trapped in both directions• The role of oil prices and geopolitical tensions in driving market psychology• Warning signals coming from credit markets and liquidity• Why patience and risk management matter more than predictionsThey also look at historical examples — including the 1990 Gulf War market, Cisco’s early leadership, and Amazon after the dot-com crash — to show how major opportunities often emerge during chaotic markets.If you’re trying to navigate volatile conditions, this episode focuses on the signals that actually matter.Subscribe for weekly market discussions, trading insights, and real conversations about how professionals approach the market.00:00 Markets rattled by oil spike and geopolitical tensions01:03 The QQQ vs XLP ratio: a warning sign for difficult markets02:40 Why traders keep getting stopped out in this environment03:35 William O’Neil’s Up-Down Volume indicator explained05:56 Jason’s take: positioning data and why there’s “no edge” right now08:30 Why modern markets may be more efficient than ever10:40 Risk management when nothing seems to work12:30 The dangerous psychology of volatile markets14:40 Why strict trading rules keep professionals out of trouble16:00 Oil spikes and the strategic reserve debate18:00 Lessons from the chaotic 2011 market environment20:40 Why real trends require falling volatility21:50 The psychology of oil and stock market reactions25:40 Growth stocks sending warning signals27:00 Historical comparison: the 1990 oil shock and market drop29:00 “Patience, then pounce” – why traders should wait for opportunity31:20 Positioning extremes in energy and commodities33:00 Credit markets and liquidity warning signals36:00 Why shorting the stock market is so difficult40:00 The Cisco example: spotting early market leaders43:30 Amazon after the dot-com crash: how huge winners begin47:00 Listener question: why traders don’t just “take the opposite side”50:00 The myth of high win-rate trading strategies53:30 Key indicators to watch next week

Markets opened on major geopolitical headlines… and then did what markets love to do: the opposite of the consensus trade.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why “logical” trades can be the most dangerous, how to read the market reaction across assets (oil, gold/silver, bonds, dollar, crypto), and why a rangebound index can still be a stock-picker’s market.They also get practical: how support/resistance gets reinforced (not “magical”), why laggards often warn you early, and how to throttle intensity when it’s not your environment.Timestamps:00:11 Weekend shock vs Monday reality: “consensus trade” breaks down01:20 The expected playbook (oil up, stocks down, crypto down) — and what actually happened05:00 War premiums, liquidity, and why markets re-price after uncertainty clears08:00 Market logic vs real-world logic (housing stocks vs housing prices)15:15 Why ranges get “too clean” — and why failed moves get fast21:17 A market going nowhere… with huge winners and losers24:12 The most underrated skill: forgive yourself + protect capital when it’s not your environment34:50 EOS(E) as a live example: sector strong, stock weak = “something’s wrong”40:02 Jason’s definition of tape reading: what should happen vs what did happen51:04 Liquidity watch: AI spend, private credit, war — and the risk if markets stop responding to liquidity1:00:01 Names on the radar (FCX, SCCO, CCJ, optical/AI infrastructure) + what “acting well” looks likeLinks:Caruso Insights: www.carusoInsights.comCrowded Market Report: www.crowdedMarketReport.com

Macro headlines are loud again — tariffs, inflation data, and “AI doomsday” research making the rounds — but the market’s message is a lot more nuanced.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why Friday’s strength mattered (even with ugly macro prints), why we’re still stuck in a range-bound tape, and why dispersion (long/short + relative performance) remains the real trade in 2026.They also tackle the viral “2028 AI crisis” narrative and explain why traders can’t live inside forecasts — the market will signal the truth before the headlines feel “obvious.” From there, they get tactical: shortages vs disruption, credit spreads as a core macro tell, commodity positioning, and a few stock/ETF charts that are acting right even on weak market days.Finally, they shift gears into a rapid-fire trading book list — the titles that actually shaped how they think, execute, and stay sane.• Market Wizards by Jack Schwager• How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil• Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas• Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy• Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre• The Perfect Speculator by Brad KoteshwarConnect With Us• Matt Caruso (Caruso Insights): https://www.carusoinsights.com• Jason Shapiro (Crowded Market Report): https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com#stockmarket2026 #tradingmindset #marketwizards #mattcaruso #JasonShapiro #MarketsUnscripted #TradingBooks #AIInvesting

Markets have been under pressure, with a weird twist: AI is hitting both sides of the market. “Legacy” businesses are getting repriced on disruption fears, while the mega-cap tech leaders are slipping on CapEx / return concerns. Matt and Jason break down what that actually means for positioning right now—why chop can still be opportunity, how to avoid getting pulled into “X narratives,” and why the market’s message matters more than opinions.They also hit the biggest debate of the week: Michael Burry vs. Palantir, why “being right” can still be expensive, and what matters most when a former leader stops acting like a leader. Finally, they close with a new weekly scoreboard idea (Matt vs. Jason) featuring Texas Instruments (TXN) vs. Sugar (CANE) as the setups to watch next week.Chapters00:00 Markets weak, AI “destroyer vs savior” contradiction01:06 Jason’s key level: why Thursday’s market action matters03:03 Matt’s framework: dot-com style rollout (1995–96) + washout thesis07:09 Winners vs losers: why long/short is working in chop11:14 Liquidity, positioning, and why a deep bear case is harder16:45 Palantir + Burry: market signals vs “X narratives”23:08 Returns debate: Buffett, benchmarks, and the “needle-mover” approach30:49 AI trading bots: why trading can’t be “solved”38:26 Futures corner: Sugar crowding, WASDE, and the signal Jason needs42:17 EDGE Report mention + why leadership lists matter43:40 Scoreboard begins: TXN breakout level vs Sugar trigger47:15 Closing: where strength is hiding + question box for next week

In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that “goes nowhere” on the index level—but is wildly different under the surface. They dig into relative strength vs. weakness, why “the tape is everything,” how context changes what signals actually matter, and why the real opportunity often sits in the unpopular places (materials, energy, industrial inputs, and the “behind-the-scenes” AI supply chain).They also walk through Jason’s current commodity focus (sugar), what crowded positioning can and can’t tell you, and how to think about risk so you can stay in the game long enough to catch the big ones.Websites:Matt: www.carusoInsights.comJason: www.crowdedMarketReport.comQuestions: www.marketsUnscripted.comTimeStamps00:00 Why a flat index is misleading02:10 Relative strength vs. hidden weakness under the surface07:39 Crypto breaking down while stocks refuse to follow10:32 Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq — the tape leads the narrative13:54 “There’s no reason it’s going down” is a trader’s trap16:03 Context beats indicators (Micron example)19:27 Breakouts on good news vs. breakouts on no news23:14 Why not understanding AI can actually be an edge30:49 The real “rules of the game” for staying alive35:29 Sugar: the most crowded trade in the world37:08 What a true news-failure setup looks like46:12 The real AI winners: energy, materials, and inputs56:37 The “tell” — what’s strong when it shouldn’t be

This is one of the hardest market environments traders face.Not because it’s a bear market — but because it’s choppy, volatile, and unforgiving.Trends fail. Leaders rotate. Leverage magnifies mistakes. And even good ideas get punished.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down:• Why being wrong isn’t the problem — losing control is• How leverage and crowded positioning are creating violent moves• Why silver’s historic collapse matters far beyond commodities• The one market relationship explaining why stock traders are struggling• How professionals survive these environments without blowing upThis is a conversation about survival, process, and staying in the game.⏱️ Chapters00:00 – Welcome to a Brutal Market01:40 – When Every Idea Feels Wrong04:20 – Why Chop Is Worse Than a Bear Market07:10 – The XLP vs QQQ Signal (Why Traders Are Struggling)10:35 – “Not Trading” Is a Trade13:20 – Silver’s 40% Collapse & Leverage Exposure17:05 – Margin Calls, Correlation & Forced Selling20:40 – Why AI Trades Keep Whipping Traders Out24:15 – Size Matters More Than Being Right27:30 – Volatility Creates Opportunity — If You Survive30:45 – The Boomer Rule Traders Ignore34:10 – Using Market Precedent Without Fooling Yourself38:25 – Why Crowd Awareness Matters More Than Narratives41:50 – Current Market Setups & AI Bottlenecks46:30 – Capital Destruction & Free Calls49:00 – Final Thoughts: Stay in the Game🔗 Links• Free AMA Registration: www.CarusoiInsights.com - https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3017700697725/WN_E2An_N8jQkerYgIKa68GdQ• Jason Shapiro: www.CrowdedMarketReport.com• Submit a question: www.MarketsUnscripted.com

Silver has gone vertical and the worst trading impulse is showing up everywhere: “I missed it, so I have to short it.” In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why fighting parabolic markets can wreck your process, the simple rule that keeps traders out of trouble, and why mean reversion works until it doesn’t.They also walk through a textbook natural gas reversal and what a proper risk framework looks like when volatility and gap risk matter. Then they zoom out to 2026 themes: policy driven rotations, AMD relative strength versus QQQ, uranium and defense, and the bigger idea behind it all, AI is converting resources into computing power and the opportunity lives in the bottlenecks.If you want to build a real trading system, the takeaway is simple: know why you are in, know exactly where you are wrong, and know what has to change before you take profits.Listen and watch, then submit your questions at MarketsUnscripted.com for an upcoming episode.

Welcome back to Markets Unscripted — after a couple weeks off, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are back to break down a messy start to 2026.In this episode, we dig into:Why the Nasdaq has been lagging while small caps (Russell/IWM) have quietly ledThe “yellow flag” Matt watches: S&P 500 rising while VIX rises (complacency risk)Jason’s core edge: positioning/COT data — why crowded trades matter before the catalyst hitsReal examples of positioning at work: Natural Gas squeeze, Swiss Franc move, and Silver vs. Palladium/CopperWhat a choppy market does to traders — and why “knowing when not to trade” is a real skillThe “strategy debate” (day trading vs swing vs position vs buy/hold) — and why the best answer is a portfolio of non-correlated return streamsWhy Jason believes day trading is the toughest game, and how lifestyle + psychology affect resultsMatt also highlights his beta-adjusted relative strength tool (AlphaBars) on TradingView and shows how it helps him read leadership when the broader tape is unstable.If you enjoyed this one, like, subscribe, and share — it helps us grow and bring more great traders onto the show.Have a question for next week’s mailbag? Submit it at marketsunscripted.com.Not investment advice. Educational purposes only.

Key Takeaways-High-yield bonds are a key indicator of market sentiment.-Market leadership can shift significantly after corrections.-Positioning in commodities like palladium can signal potential reversals.-Sentiment often drives significant price movements in metals.-Understanding COT charts is crucial for gauging market positioning.-Traders should avoid shorting at all-time highs without confirmation.-The cannabis market illustrates the challenges of competing with the black market.-Psychological factors play a significant role in trading decisions.-Developing a consistent trading process is essential for success.-Letting the market dictate trades can lead to better outcomes.

Markets looked weak… then one thing changed: stocks started reacting well to good news again. In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the AI-led reversal, why Micron’s reaction mattered, and how to manage risk when a move starts in after-hours and confirms the next day.They also compare two very different approaches:Matt’s “news + momentum” playbook (build size as the market confirms it)Jason’s “news failure / turnpicking” playbook (fade crowded trades when the market rejects the story)Plus: why the current backdrop (AI + liquidity + rate cuts) may be one of the most bullish setups we’ve seen—and why you still need the market to confirm your thesis before leaning in.Key topics covered:What a market “tone change” looks like in real timeHow to trade a news-driven move without getting chopped upRelative strength: why leaders matter most during drawdownsWhy seasonal/tax narratives rarely produce edgeWhat Jason watches next (positioning/COT + market reaction)Subscribe for weekly, unfiltered market conversations.

In this week’s episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro independently arrived at the same conclusion:something in this market has changed — and not for the better.For the first time since this bull run began, both traders have shifted to defensive positioning, and in this episode they break down exactly why.We cover:• The AI trade breaking down — Palantir, Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, IREN, Oklo• Liquidity no longer lifting markets despite bullish headlines• Why leaders failing together is a major character change• Breadth improvement that may actually be a bearish rotation tell• The NASDAQ lagging the S&P and Dow — a historic topping signature• Bitcoin selling off in what “should” be its most bullish environment• How traders trap themselves with bias, ego, and social-media tribes• Why mental flexibility matters more than “being right”• The single most important chart Jason is watching: 30-year bonds• Why shorting is so dangerous—even when you’re ultimately right• How to use tape action to spot turns before the headlines catch upMatt walks through the breakdown in relative strength across leaders, key reversal signals in AMD and Hood, and why small caps cannot replace trillion-dollar AI names.Jason explains how he’s reading liquidity, why bonds may be the real driver of what happens next, and what a policy-driven snapback could look like.This episode is a masterclass in tape-reading, flexibility, and managing risk when markets stop behaving normally.

The Fed is days away. AI leaders areswinging wildly. And 2025 is ending with markets sitting right near all-timehighs — despite a year FULL of reasons they “should have” cracked.In this episode of MarketsUnscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down what actuallymatters heading into the final Fed meeting of the year — and why so many widelydiscussed narratives (“priced in,” “bubble risk,” “seasonality,” “AIexhaustion”) continue to mislead traders.This week’s deep-dive includes:opics We CoverWhy the Fed’s December meeting may be Powell’s last major decision that mattersThe real question traders should ask: What’s the next upside catalyst?Why “everything is known” — yet inflows keep powering the market higherTape-reading vs technical analysis: how both methods arrive at the same truthThe danger of assuming news → market outcomesWhy the market climbs a wall of worryNew leadership trends: AMAT, TER, VIAVI, testing equipment namesHow to spot the next Amazon — and avoid the fate of CarvanaThe psychology & danger of shorting (Jason’s “heroin analogy”)Cotton, soybeans, the WASDE report, and the next big catalyst in currenciesHow a rising dollar or steepening yield curve can give stock traders an edgeViewer question: What does it really take to become a full-time trader?If you’re serious about improving yourdecision-making heading into 2026, this one is essential

Is this really an “AI bubble” — or are traders blaming the wrong thing?In Episode 3 of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down what’s actually happening beneath the surface of this market: AI leaders vs pretenders, Bitcoin’s unwind, and why liquidity still drives the whole game.They cover:AI bubble or OpenAI bubble? Why Google (GOOG) and other AI infrastructure names held firm while OpenAI-linked stocks like ORCL struggledHow to read true relative strength using live examples: GOOG, LITE, COHR, VIAV, STLD, ATI, AMATWall Street analyst narratives vs reality — and why listening to them can cost you 40–60% drawdownsBitcoin, MSTR & liquidity risk — is MicroStrategy a new LTCM-style test of the system?Gold & silver breakouts while Bitcoin sells off: what that says about the liquidity cycle“Buying the dip” vs buying strength — why the “it’s on sale” mindset doesn’t translate to marketsBuffett-style value vs today’s tape — cheap vs good and why many “value traps” stay deadThe LAW trade (CS Disco) — an AI legal-tech stock that quietly turned into a leaderCotton, commodities & macro tells — what Jason’s watching through the WASDE reportHow to let the market agree with you before you size up — instead of trying to out-think the tape now🔔 Follow Markets Unscripted for more conversations on:AI stocks & market structurePositioning, sentiment & COT dataRisk management, liquidity & real trader process👍 Like the episode, drop a comment with what you want us to cover next, and share it with a trader who keeps calling every rally a “bubble.”#marketsunscripted #aistocks #bitcoin #google #liquidity #gold #silver #stockmarket #tradingpodcast #mattcaruso #jasonshapiro

In this week’s episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt and Jason dive straight into the part of trading nobody wants to talk about — the spiral. The drawdowns that hit harder than you expected. The moments when your process cracks. The emotional tailspins that turn small losses into career-ending ones… unless you know how to stop, reassess, and rebuild.Matt opens the show with the question every trader eventually faces: What do you do when you get hit harder than you can handle?Jason answers with brutal clarity — stop trading, confront your assumptions, and get honest about whether your process actually has edge… or whether you’ve been lying to yourself.From there, the conversation widens:Why mental capital matters more than financial capitalHow backtests fool traders — and how to know when the live data exposes youLiving through 5% vs. 15% drawdowns (and why most traders never survive the difference)The hidden lifestyle pressures that quietly destroy portfoliosWhy liquidity — not narratives — is driving the latest market stressCapitulation signals in Bitcoin, AI infrastructure names, and private creditWhy the “yen carry trade blow-up” is just bear-pornHow policymakers prop markets up… and the limits of their controlAI, credit stress, and what the tape is actually saying beneath the noiseTrue to the show’s name, Matt and Jason pull zero punches — challenging the myths, exposing the traps, and reminding traders that longevity is the real measure of success.Whether you're navigating a tough tape or trying to build a career that survives more than one cycle, this episode cuts straight to the truth.

In the debut episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro go straight at the dominant narrative: is AI a bubble or not?They break down Berkshire’s surprise move into Google, the recent AI-driven weakness, what Bitcoin and crypto are really saying about liquidity, and why Palantir’s reaction to great earnings was a classic “bad tape” tell.From there, they zoom out to the bigger lesson:Why the market is a casino if you don’t know how to “count cards”How liquidity, sentiment, and positioning actually interactWhy most traders lose by treating opinions as edge, instead of letting the tape and process leadWhat Matt’s watching next (CRS, ATI, AI leaders) and what Jason is watching in crypto, Japan, and liquidityIf you’ve ever felt caught between “AI bubble” headlines and your P&L, this episode will help you reset: focus less on the narrative, and more on the odds.